2025-11-26 06:31

Deutsche Bank raises 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 per ounce Spot gold hits highest since November 14 Unemployment claims fall, but job market remains weak Nov 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices hovered near an over one-week high on Wednesday, after expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will trim interest rates next month kept non-yielding bullion a favoured asset. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,162.99 per ounce at 01:55 p.m. ET (18:55 GMT), after hitting its highest since November 14 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.6% higher at $4,165.20 per ounce. Sign up here. "The focus has shifted away from the dollar and towards a decrease in interest rates in December," said Marex analyst Edward Meir, noting gold's rise despite the dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab being steady. Rate cut bets "are helping gold a bit, as is the talk that they might nominate a Fed chairman soon and the front runner is Kevin Hassett from the Economic Advisory Committee of the president." Hassett, like U.S. President Donald Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under Fed Chair Jerome Powell. Gold, a non-yielding asset which thrives in a low-interest rate environment, received an additional boost from this news. Traders see an 85% chance of a Fed rate cut next month, compared to 30% a week ago, the CME FedWatch tool , opens new tab showed. Meanwhile, the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, pointing to still-low layoffs, though the labor market is struggling to generate enough jobs for those out of work amid lingering economic uncertainty. U.S. consumer confidence also weakened in November as households grew more concerned about jobs and their financial outlook. The data releases followed a series of recent dovish comments from Fed policymakers. The outlook for gold remains positive, with most research banks seeing gold above $4,000 per ounce in 2026. Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold forecast to $4,450 an ounce from $4,000, citing stabilising investor flows and persistent central bank demand. Spot silver rose 3.3% to $53.12 per ounce, platinum was up 1.2% at $1,571.80, while palladium added 1% to $1,411.50. (This story has been corrected to fix the U.S. gold futures settlement price in paragraph 2) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-climbs-near-two-week-high-reinforced-us-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:24

More than 2.7 million affected by floods in Thailand Military helicopters deployed in southern city of Hat Yai Aid sent by air, sea and road, military says HAT YAI, Thailand, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Thailand airlifted patients and flew critical supplies, including oxygen tanks, into a submerged southern city on Wednesday, as the death toll from some of the region’s worst floods in years climbed to 33. Floods have swept through nine Thai provinces and eight states in neighbouring Malaysia for a second successive year, prompting both countries to evacuate nearly 50,000 people. Sign up here. In Indonesia, 8 to 13 people are estimated dead following floods and landslides this week, while one has died in Malaysia. Three days of torrential rain starting last week dumped record volumes on Hat Yai, Thailand’s southern commercial hub, flooding hospitals and stranding thousands on rooftops. On Friday, the city received 335 mm of rain, its highest in a single day for 300 years. The Thai military has mobilised boats, helicopters and even its lone aircraft carrier to deliver supplies and evacuate the sick. Extreme weather events can become more frequent as a result of global warming, with higher sea surface temperatures supercharging tropical storms. "There have been 33 deaths across seven provinces," Thai government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat said in Bangkok. "Causes of death include being swept away by currents, drowning, electrocution, and landslides." PUBLIC CALL FOR EQUIPMENT Without electricity, parts of the city were still in darkness late on Wednesday and swamped by almost waist-high swirling brown water, according to a Reuters journalist. Rescue workers pushed boats through flooded neighbourhoods, some of them loaded with residents pulled out of their homes. In an update on social media, provincial authorities said that flood waters in many areas were gradually receding but currents remain strong, hindering rescue operations. The Thai military has pressed some 200 boats and 20 helicopters into service in the area, and authorities have received appeals for help from around 77,000 people through social media channels, according to Siripong. Military helicopters dropped supplies to residents gathered on rooftops, some of them waving for help. Other aircraft flew into the area with generators, oxygen tanks and water, social media posts by the air force and navy showed. Thailand's only aircraft carrier, Chakri Naruebet, which set out from its home port on Tuesday, had joined the relief effort, providing air support, the navy said. The government made a public call for equipment, including boats and jet skis. Three consecutive days of downpours since last Wednesday dumped 630 mm (24.8 inches) of rain around Hat Yai, higher than a previous peak of 428 mm in 2010, according to the country's Geo-Informatics and Space Technology Development Agency. The weather system has moved away towards the Strait of Malacca and intensified into a tropical cyclone that will move towards Indonesia, the Thai Meteorological Department said. HOSPITAL EVACUATIONS IN THAILAND AND MALAYSIA Floods have affected more than 980,000 homes and over 2.7 million people in Thailand, the interior ministry said. Flood waters had inundated the first floor of Hat Yai's main government hospital treating 600 patients, around 50 of them in intensive care, public health ministry official Somrerk Chungsaman told Reuters. "Today, all intensive care patients will be transported out of Hat Yai Hospital," he said. At another hospital, an army helicopter evacuated a critically ill elderly woman, who was surrounded by medical staff on the aircraft then wheeled away from the rooftop helipad of another facility, according to a handout video. In Kangar, the capital of Malaysia's Perlis state, which borders Thailand, workers moved patients out of the Tuanku Fauziah Hospital on gurneys through knee-high water, according to a Reuters journalist. 'AT LEAST SEND THEM SUPPLIES' Despite the push by Thailand's military, which took over relief efforts on Tuesday, some residents of Hat Yai and surrounding areas who were still waiting to be rescued posted desperate pleas on social media. Auntita Taechinchotikan, 33, who lives in Bangkok, had only managed to make contact with her stranded brother and his family early on Wednesday. "I've tried contacting every rescue team, and they've all responded, but no one has been able to reach the house," she told Reuters. Ten family members were trapped in two buildings in Hat Yai, including her parents and young children, said Auntita. "If they can’t take them out, then at least send supplies," she said. "I don’t know how much food they have left to survive." https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/thailand-airlift-critical-patients-southern-floods-kill-33-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:11

BOJ eyes rate hike as soon as next month, sources say Investors welcome UK budget Traders anticipate December Fed cut, eye new Fed chair New Zealand dollar surges on hawkish RBNZ tilt NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The yen weakened against the dollar on Wednesday, after an initial boost from speculation about a possible Bank of Japan rate hike next month faded, while sterling advanced on a UK budget that offered a larger-than-expected fiscal buffer. The dollar fell as investors maintained expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its December meeting, as a mixed set of economic indicators did little to alter that outlook. Sign up here. The yen has been on the market's radar for some time, as investors remain alert for the possibility of Japanese intervention to boost the weakening currency. The BOJ is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, sources told Reuters, reviving previous hawkish language as worries about sharp yen declines return and political pressure to keep rates low fades. The yen initially rose against the dollar after the Reuters report of a possible rate hike, before reversing course. It was last down 0.2% at 156.44 per dollar, having earlier hit an intraday high of 155.66 . "It's going to be hard to significantly change the trajectory of the yen with just one hike unless the BOJ delivers a hawkish hike and commits to raising rates consistently through 2026 to bring inflation under control," said Vassili Serebriakov, FX strategist at UBS in New York. "Unless that happens, I don't think the yen is going to benefit significantly because the rate differentials between the U.S. and Japan are still quite wide and volatility is still low." The yen has been under pressure from worries about Japan's worsening fiscal position. "There is a possibility of intervention over Thanksgiving, but if the market's fear of intervention is sufficient to stop dollar/yen from rising, it sort of reduces the possibility," said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank London. The pound was also in focus with Britain's budget announcement. British finance minister Rachel Reeves delivered a budget that will give her more room for meeting her borrowing targets, which calmed investor nerves. In a figure closely watched by investors assessing Britain's borrowing risks, the Office for Budget Responsibility said the government will now have more than double its previous buffer for meeting its fiscal targets even as it raises spending on welfare. Sterling was last up 0.5% on the dollar at $1.3228 and was also higher versus the euro, which slipped 0.3% to 87.64 pence. , . DOVISH FED IN 2026? In the United States, Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto, said the focus is on the "growing likelihood of a more aggressive easing campaign from the Fed." Data showed that initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the lowest since April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. A separate report showed non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely tracked proxy for business spending, jumped 0.9% in September after an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in August. The data, however, failed to bolster the dollar. Investors are also betting that the reported leading candidate to be the next Fed chair may pursue a more dovish policy, adding to the U.S. currency's weak outlook. Bloomberg News reported that White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has emerged as the front-runner to be the new chair. Hassett, like President Donald Trump, has said interest rates should be lower than they are under current Fed Chair Jerome Powell. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Tuesday there is a good chance Trump would announce his pick before Christmas. "We have had three months without economic data from the U.S. and we're going to get a lot. ... Markets will be much more driven by actual fundamental data rather than an appointment for the Fed chair," said Ales Koutny, head of international rates at Vanguard in London. U.S. rate futures have now priced in an 85% chance of a 25 basis-point move next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Elsewhere, the euro last changed hands at $1.1590 , up 0.2%. The New Zealand dollar jumped after the country's central bank cut its interest rate to 2.25% as expected, but signaled an end to the easing cycle as the economy showed early signs of recovery. The kiwi rose 1.3% to US$0.5695, after earlier hitting a three-week high, as traders reduced expectations for further rate cuts. The Australian dollar rose 0.7% to US$0.6517 after Australian inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month in October, closing the door to further policy easing. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-slips-investors-bet-us-rate-cuts-kiwi-jumps-after-rbnz-decision-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 06:02

Global stocks rise for fourth straight session Sterling advances after UK budget surprise US yields rise after four-session drop and data NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Global stocks rallied for a fourth straight day on Wednesday as expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut remained elevated, while sterling was whipsawed by Britain's fiscal watchdog inadvertently publishing new forecasts before a UK budget release. On Wall Street, U.S. stocks closed higher, led by gains in the tech (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab sector that rose about 1.5%, in part due to a jump of nearly 7% in Dell Technologies (DELL.N) , opens new tab after its quarterly results and outlook. Sign up here. Equities have rallied since Friday, when expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve jumped after New York Fed President John Williams said interest rates can fall in the near term even as other policymakers insisted borrowing costs should remain steady for now. Those expectations were buttressed by comments this week from San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly and Fed Governor Christopher Waller in support of a December cut. "We've seen some dovish comments from the Fed, particularly the New York Fed ... which I think are signaling a potential cut next month, and I think that that's what's been driving the markets lately," said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. Economic data on Wednesday showed weekly initial jobless claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 216,000 for the week ended November 22, the lowest level since April and below the 225,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 314.67 points, or 0.67%, to 47,427.12, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 46.73 points, or 0.69%, to 6,812.61 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab climbed 189.10 points, or 0.82%, to 23,214.69. Expectations for a 25 basis point cut from the Fed held at more than 80%, according to CME's FedWatch Tool , opens new tab, well above the 30.1% from a week ago. U.S. markets will be closed on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and will have an abbreviated session on Friday. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab jumped 9.31 points, or 0.94%, to 1,000.37, and was on pace for its fourth straight session of gains, its longest streak in a month. The MSCI index has gained 3.3% over the four-day rally, its biggest four-day percentage gain since mid-May. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed up 1.09% to record its biggest daily percentage gain in two weeks. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, declined 0.26% to 99.59, with the euro up 0.22% at $1.1594. Sterling strengthened 0.52% to $1.3234. The currency had swung between a gain of 0.57% and a decline of 0.34% on the day in the wake of the UK budget confusion as the Office for Budget Responsibility's Economic and Fiscal Outlook was released early. British finance minister Rachel Reeves then announced a big tax-raising budget that will take more money from workers, people saving for a pension and from investors to give herself greater room to meet her deficit-reduction targets. Ten-year gilt yields were last down 7 basis points at 4.426%. The Japanese yen weakened 0.25% against the greenback to 156.45 per dollar even as sources told Reuters the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month as it may take a more consistent rate hike path to alter the trajectory of the currency. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes shed 1 basis point to 3.992% as the rally in UK government bonds helped limit the downside for longer-dated U.S. debt after stronger-than-expected economic data fueled selling. The 2-year note yield rose 2 basis points to 3.479%. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 05:33

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Gregor Stuart Hunter: It's make-or-break time for Britain's finance minister Rachel Reeves as she unveils later today a budget expected to contain tens of billions of pounds of new tax increases. Sign up here. Sterling is up 0.2% at $1.3193 in Asian trading, rising for a fifth consecutive day ahead of her speech, due to begin at 1230 GMT. In Japan, the yen rallied 0.2% against the U.S. dollar as sources told Reuters that the Bank of Japan is preparing markets for a possible interest rate hike as soon as next month, shifting the central bank onto a hawkish footing after a meeting last week between new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda. Takaichi's high approval ratings are prompting Japanese opposition parties to ramp up preparations for snap elections, the Yomiuri newspaper reported on Wednesday. The kiwi dollar surged 1.2% after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut interest rates 25 basis points to 2.25%, but removed its dovish guidance, signalling an end to the central bank's easing cycle. And the Australian dollar jumped 0.5% after a hotter-than-expected inflation report reinforced bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia is also done with rate cuts for now. Oil markets have been choppy, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signalled he was ready to advance a U.S.-backed peace plan, paving the way for a relaxation of sanctions on Russian energy and additional supplies, sending oil prices tumbling to a five-week low on Tuesday. But Brent crude futures rebounded 0.4% to $62.72 after U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from a Thursday deadline for Ukraine to agree. Trump also shrugged off a Bloomberg News report that U.S. negotiator Steve Witkoff coached the Russians on how to approach him on the topic. None of that confusion and volatility troubled equity markets, which enjoyed a broad rebound following cues from Wall Street after the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose for a third consecutive day. On Wednesday, MSCI's broadest gauge of shares outside of Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab jumped 1% as traders firmed up expectations the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month, while the Nikkei 225 (.N225) , opens new tab surged 2% on optimism about corporate earnings. But Hong Kong and China lagged gains, with the Hang Seng Index (.HSI) , opens new tab up 0.5% after earnings from AI front-runner Alibaba (9988.HK) , opens new tab that beat estimates, but still left shares down 1.1% as the e-commerce company underwhelmed investors with its Q4 guidance and said it would decrease spending on its instant commerce business - prompting a 6% gain for rival Meituan (3690.HK) , opens new tab. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: UK: Autumn budget Debt auctions: Germany: 10-year government debt https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 05:30

BANGKOK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - The death toll in Thailand from flooding in the country's south is 33, a senior government official said on Wednesday. The causes of death included landslides and electrocution, government spokesperson Siripong Angkasakulkiat said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/thai-floods-death-toll-33-official-says-2025-11-26/