2025-11-26 04:38

US crude inventories rise by 2.8 million barrels Ukraine peace deal likely to drag down prices OPEC+ likely to leave output levels unchanged NEW YORK, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled up on Wednesday, bouncing back from one-month lows in the previous session, as investors assessed prospects of oversupply and talks over a Russia-Ukraine peace deal ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Brent crude futures settled 65 cents, or 1.04%, higher to $63.13 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 70 cents, or 1.21%, at $58.65. Sign up here. U.S. crude inventories climbed by 2.8 million barrels to 426.9 million barrels last week as imports surged, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Analysts had expected a 55,000-barrel rise. "We are definitely on the road to a rather healthy supply glut, there is no doubt about it, and the crude build is indicative of that," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Capital. U.S. energy firms cut the number of oil rigs by 12 to 407 this week, their lowest since September 2021, energy services firm Baker Hughes (BKR.O) , opens new tab said on Wednesday. OPEC+ is likely to leave output levels unchanged at its meeting on Sunday, three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Tuesday. Offering some support to crude prices were rising expectations for a potential U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December. Lower rates would stimulate economic growth and bolster demand for oil. DOUBTS LINGER Investors awaited more clarity on Russia and Ukraine negotiations on Wednesday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told European leaders on Tuesday that he was ready to advance a U.S.-backed framework for ending the war with Russia, driving both Brent crude and WTI down to one-month lows. "The bottom line is, there's still no peace agreement and it's going to be difficult to satisfy all the parties to come to the table and sign one," Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates. U.S. President Donald Trump said he directed his representatives to meet separately with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian officials. A Ukrainian official said Zelenskiy could visit the United States in the next few days to finalize a deal. "If finalized, the deal could rapidly dismantle Western sanctions on Russian energy exports," potentially driving WTI prices to about $55, IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said in a client note. "For now, the market waits for more clarity, but the risk appears to be for lower prices unless talks falter." The Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which handles about 1.5% of global oil, said it resumed oil loadings overnight, having suspended loadings after a Ukrainian drone attack earlier in the week. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-stabilises-after-ukraine-peace-talks-push-prices-one-month-lows-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 04:14

WELLINGTON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - New Zealand's central bank said on Monday it had filed civil proceedings against ASB Bank Ltd for breaches of core requirements under the anti-money laundering and countering financing of terrorism rules. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand said in a statement ASB, owned by Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA.AX) , opens new tab, has co-operated with the RBNZ and has admitted liability for all seven causes of action. Sign up here. ASB Chief Executive Vittoria Shortt said the bank's transaction monitoring and customer due diligence systems and processes had shortcomings, and it did not act fast enough to resolve these. "We didn’t get this right and I apologise for that," she said. “We cleared all backlogs of transaction monitoring alerts by February 2024. We have uplifted, and continue to uplift, our processes to improve our AML-CFT capability.” Acting Assistant Governor of Financial Stability Angus McGregor said this action is an important reminder to industry that serious non-compliance with the act is unacceptable. The act "has been in place for well over a decade now and the Reserve Bank expects banks to have the systems and resources in place to be fully compliant with these requirement," he said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/nz-central-bank-cuts-cash-rate-by-25-bps-225-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 04:08

Australia's October CPI rises 3.8% y/y, beats 3.6% forecast Trimmed mean also rises to 3.3% y/y, both trending up since June First release of new, complete monthly series SYDNEY, Nov 26 (Reuters) - Australian consumer inflation accelerated for a fourth straight month in October, a new data series showed on Wednesday, a hot result that has markets giving up hopes of more policy easing and even flirting with the idea of a hike. The Australian dollar rose 0.5% to $0.6502, while three-year government bond yields spiked 11 basis points to 3.855%, the highest since February. Sign up here. Investors sharply pared bets that the Reserve Bank of Australia will be able to deliver one last rate cut in May next year to just 8%, from 40% before, and there is now a 32% chance of a rate hike by the end of next year. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) in October rose 3.8% from a year earlier, the highest in 10 months and above median forecasts of 3.6%. That marked a steady pick-up from the trough in June when inflation hit a low of 1.9%. The trimmed mean measure of core inflation ran at an annual 3.3% in October, up from 3.2% in September, also not going in the RBA's desired direction. "All up, it's a pretty ugly inflation print," said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research for Oxford Economics Australia. "For the RBA, this keeps cuts off the table. In fact, a hike can't be ruled out." This is the first complete monthly CPI report published by ABS, replacing the old and partial monthly series. However, the RBA has said it still prefers the quarterly prints for a better gauge of inflation trends given the new data can be volatile. Headline inflation surged in the last quarter to 3.2%, back above the target band of 2-3%, fuelling concerns that monetary policy might not be restrictive after three rate cuts this year. Home loans jumped and the consumer mood turned optimistic for the first time in four years. Details of the report suggested the pick-up in inflation has been broad-based, with price pressures in the services sector accelerating. Services inflation ran at an annual rate of 3.9% last month, up from 3.5% in September. Housing inflation advanced to 5.9% in the 12 months to October, from 5.7% before, even though the government's electricity rebates have flowed through to some households and brought the costs down for the month. "The Reserve Bank needs to reverse the recent trend and get inflation moving back to the midpoint of the target band, while knowing that the full impact of the three rate cuts delivered this year so far have not been fully felt," said Cherelle Murphy, EY chief economist. "A rate hike may even be considered (in December) given the next Monetary Policy Board meeting is not until February." https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-inflation-picks-up-october-rate-cut-bets-fade-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 00:28

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Seth Meyer, the U.S. Department of Agriculture's chief economist since 2021, will leave the agency to work for the University of Missouri's food and agricultural policy institute, the university said on Tuesday. Meyer's departure comes after the USDA has lost thousands of research staff to President Donald Trump's effort to shrink the federal government. Sign up here. Meyer has been the head of the USDA office responsible for assessing crops globally and publishing a monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report that can swing crop prices. The report is considered one of the most influential sources of supply and demand data for agricultural commodities worldwide. Starting on January 1, Meyer will join the University of Missouri to lead its Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute, according to the university. In a statement from the university, he said the job was an opportunity to support the farm sector with agricultural policy development and to return home to Missouri. USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said Meyer made a lasting impact at the agency. "Secretary Rollins is deeply grateful for Seth Meyer's many years of dedicated service at USDA," she said in a statement. The USDA suspended the release of key reports, including weekly data on U.S. grain export sales, during the record-long government shutdown that ended this month. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/usda-chief-economist-seth-meyer-step-down-2025-11-26/

2025-11-26 00:07

Nov 25 (Reuters) - Venture Global (VG.N) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it has signed a 20-year sales and purchase agreement, or SPA, with Japan's capital city gas supplier, Tokyo Gas (9531.T) , opens new tab, to supply it with 1 million metric tonnes per annum of liquefied natural gas, starting in 2030. The agreement marks Venture Global's fourth long-term contract with a Japanese company and the U.S. LNG exporter has in the last six months signed SPAs for 7.75 million tonnes per annum of the superchilled gas, the company said in a statement. Sign up here. Venture Global is the U.S.' second-largest LNG exporter and last month was responsible for 30% of the U.S. total LNG output, according to data compiled by LSEG. The U.S. remains the world's largest exporter of the superchilled gas. Global LNG demand has surged since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting buyers in Europe and Asia to secure long-term supply deals with U.S. exporters. Japan, the world's second-largest importer of LNG after China, is seeking stable and flexible energy supplies to support the expansion of data centers. Earlier this month, Venture Global signed a deal with Mitsui (8031.T) , opens new tab, following an agreement with JERA in 2023. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/venture-global-tokyo-gas-sign-20-year-lng-supply-deal-2025-11-26/

2025-11-25 22:31

Reeves raises taxes to stay on track for borrowing target Tax burden hits fresh high Budget watchdog says Reeves has more margin to meet plan Growth outlook lowered on weaker productivity view UK government's borrowing costs fall in bond market LONDON, Nov 26 (Reuters) - British finance minister Rachel Reeves announced a big tax-raising budget on Wednesday that will take more money from workers, people saving for a pension and investors to give herself greater room to meet her deficit-reduction targets. Britain's fiscal watchdog cut its forecasts for economic growth for the coming years - a setback for struggling Prime Minister Keir Starmer who promised voters last year he would speed up the economy. Sign up here. But the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) said the government will now have more than double its previous buffer for meeting its fiscal targets, something closely watched by investors assessing Britain's borrowing risks. The OBR - in forecasts published in error before Reeves began her annual tax and spending speech to parliament, and first reported by Reuters - said the tax hikes would amount to an annual 26.1 billion pounds ($34.5 billion). That will push Britain's tax-to-GDP ratio to 38.3% of economic output, a fresh post-war high, although this will still be lower than the euro zone's average of 41% last year. Last year, Reeves ordered 40 billion pounds of tax hikes - the biggest since the 1990s - and she promised at the time that they would be a one-off. "No doubt, we will face opposition again. But I have yet to see a credible, or a fairer alternative plan for working people," Reeves said. GROWTH FORECASTS CUT The removal of a two-child limit on welfare payments to poor families is opposed by most Britons, according to opinion polls but the announcement earned cheers from Labour Party lawmakers. Although the next national election is not due until 2029, the authority of Reeves and Starmer has been questioned within their centre-left party. The Institute for Fiscal Studies think tank highlighted how the budget included an increase in spending in the short term while much of the push to raise taxes would hit later on. "The future restraint, just before the next election? One could be forgiven for treating that with a healthy dose of scepticism," IFS director Helen Miller said. The OBR cut its forecasts for economic growth which it now saw averaging 1.5% over the five-year forecast period, 0.3 percentage points slower than it expected in March. The downgrade was linked to lower productivity growth which the OBR said reflected past underperformance due to headwinds including Brexit. Reeves vowed to prove the watchdog wrong. "We beat the forecasts this year and we will beat them again," she said. But the OBR's verdict on the budget and the outlook saw British living standards barely growing in the coming years, hurt in part by the higher taxes. BORROWING COSTS FALL British 30-year government bond yields - which are sensitive to borrowing concerns - fell sharply by almost 12 basis points on the day, their biggest one-day drop since April, suggesting investors were largely comfortable with the budget plan. Sterling rose against the U.S. dollar and the euro. The OBR said the headroom - the amount of extra spending or tax cuts possible for the government while meeting its budget rules - stood at almost 21.7 billion pounds in four years' time. In March, the OBR forecast headroom of just 9.9 billion pounds which was eaten up by the weaker economic outlook, higher-than-expected borrowing costs and a U-turn in July on welfare reform. Deloitte Chief Economist Ian Stewart said the OBR's assumption of faster wage growth - and higher tax receipts - had rescued Reeves. "However, today's announcements will likely have a longer-term impact on growth, as the chancellor is raising an extra 26 billion pounds a year in tax," Stewart said. The OBR said a three-year extension of a freeze on income tax thresholds - first introduced by the previous Conservative government - would raise an extra 8.0 billion pounds in the 2029/30 financial year. The generosity of pension incentives was scaled back with social security charges on salary-sacrifice pension contributions raising almost 5 billion pounds. Increasing tax rates on dividends, property and savings income would raise 2.1 billion pounds, the OBR said, while a so-called "mansion tax" on homes worth more than 2 million pounds was expected to raise 0.4 billion in 2029/30. Reeves maintained a freeze on the rate of fuel duty but she introduced a new mileage-based charge on electric cars. Despite the increases, David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, which manages $1.5 trillion in assets, said he expected Reeves would have to raise taxes again next year. "It's a missed opportunity, and she's just chosen to kick the can down the road," he said SPENDING UP, GROWTH DOWN Public spending was due to grow every year as a result of the measures in the budget - reaching an extra 11 billion pounds in 2029/30 - primarily to pay for the welfare measures. A think tank that focuses on poverty reduction welcomed the removal of the two-child cap, along with actions to lower energy bills and an increase in the minimum wage announced on Tuesday. "But there is more to do," Alfie Stirling, insight and policy director at the Joseph Rowntree Foundation said. "Housing costs and bills are still too high, our safety nets are too frail, and the cost to workers of caring for their loved ones is too great." ($1 = 0.7568 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/uks-reeves-test-faith-investors-party-with-tax-heavy-budget-2025-11-25/