2026-01-22 04:39
Jan 22 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900/oz earlier, noting private-sector and emerging market central banks' diversification into gold. Spot gold climbed to a peak of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday. The safe‑haven metal has climbed more than 11% so far in 2026, extending a blistering rally that saw it jump 64% last year. Sign up here. "We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don't liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast," the brokerage said in a note dated Wednesday. The brokerage also expects central bank buying to average 60 tonnes in 2026 as emerging market central banks are likely to continue diversification of their reserves into gold. Commerzbank, last week, raised its gold price forecast to $4,900 by the end of this year, citing increased safe-haven demand. Following is a list of analysts' latest gold price forecasts (in $ per ounce): *end-of-period forecasts https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/goldman-sachs-raises-2026-end-gold-price-forecast-5400oz-2026-01-22/
2026-01-22 03:54
Jan 22 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce from $4,900/oz earlier, noting private-sector and emerging market central banks' diversification into gold. Spot gold climbed to a peak of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday. The safe‑haven metal has climbed more than 11% so far in 2026, extending a blistering rally that saw it jump 64% last year. Sign up here. "We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don't liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast," the brokerage said in a note dated Wednesday. Goldman Sachs expects Western ETF holdings to rise as the U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to cut the funds rate by 50 basis points in 2026. The brokerage also expects central bank buying to average 60 tonnes in 2026 as emerging market central banks are likely to continue diversification of their reserves into gold. Meanwhile, a sharp reduction in perceived risks around the long-run path for global monetary policy would pose downside risk to gold prices if it were to cause liquidation of macro policy hedges, Goldman Sachs said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/goldman-sachs-raises-2026-end-gold-price-forecast-by-500-5400oz-2026-01-22/
2026-01-22 03:12
Jan 21 (Reuters) - Crypto custody startup BitGo Holdings (BTGO.N) , opens new tab priced its U.S. initial public offering above its indicated range on Wednesday, raising $212.8 million and paving the way for the first stock market debut by a digital asset company in 2026. The Palo Alto, California-based company sold 11.8 million shares at $18 apiece, compared with the marketed range of $15 to $17 per share. The IPO values BitGo at $2.08 billion. Sign up here. The IPO comes at a fraught moment for the U.S. crypto industry, as lawmakers push ahead with a long-awaited market structure bill that would redraw the lines between securities and commodities oversight, even as major players such as Coinbase warn that it could choke core parts of the business. The sector has been unsettled by a sharp selloff in cryptocurrencies in October, raising the threshold for investor backing and complicating efforts by companies seeking to tap capital markets. Crypto-focused asset manager Grayscale and reportedly cryptocurrency exchange Kraken are among the companies looking to test investor appetite through IPOs this year, after BitGo offers the market a litmus test with its debut on Thursday. In comparison, Circle (CRCL.N) , opens new tab and Figure (FIGR.O) , opens new tab made their market debuts earlier in 2025 in a notably bullish environment for digital asset firms, which gave them a massive boost on their first trading session. The digital asset sector was buoyed by President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and his administration’s support for regulatory frameworks like the stablecoin‑focused GENIUS Act, which saw Bitcoin — the world's largest cryptocurrency — scale record highs in the first half of 2025. Founded in 2013, BitGo is one of the largest crypto custody firms in the United States. It stores and protects digital assets for clients, a role that has gained importance as institutional interest in cryptocurrencies rises. Goldman Sachs (GS.N) , opens new tab and Citigroup (C.N) , opens new tab are the lead underwriters for the offering. BitGo will list on the New York Stock Exchange under the symbol "BTGO". https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bitgo-holdings-prices-us-ipo-18-bloomberg-news-reports-2026-01-22/
2026-01-22 01:35
SYDNEY, Jan 22 (Reuters) - The Australian dollar hit 15-month highs on Thursday as an apparent easing in U.S.-European tensions soothed risk sentiment, while a strong set of domestic jobs data narrowed the odds on a near-term rate hike. The Aussie climbed 0.4% to a peak of $0.6791 , while a break of resistance at $0.6766 opened the way to targets at $0.6793, $0.6824 and the 2024 high of $0.6943. Sign up here. Australian employment jumped by 65,200 jobs in December to easily outpace forecasts of a 30,000 increase and more than recover a loss the previous month. The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly to 4.1%, the lowest in seven months and some way below the Reserve Bank of Australia's own projection of 4.4%. That strength mirrors signs of a pickup in consumer spending late last year and suggests the economy is accelerating quicker than policymakers had anticipated. "With the labour market resilient as ever, household spending on an upswing and capacity pressures running high, there is a growing imperative for the RBA to tighten policy settings," said Abhijit Surya, a senior APAC economist at Capital Economics. "We're growing increasingly confident in our view that the bank will hike rates by 25bp at its meeting in early February." Markets reacted by ramping up the risk of a quarter-point hike in the 3.6% cash rate when the RBA board meets on February 3. The probability quickly shifted to 54% from 27% before the data and a hike was now fully priced by May. Three-year bond futures duly slid 5 ticks to 95.755 and briefly touched their lowest point since late 2023. Much now depends on inflation data for the December quarter due next week where an increase in core inflation of 0.9% or more would pile pressure on for an early hike. The Antipodean currencies had already rallied overnight when U.S. President Donald Trump said he would not use force to take Greenland and would not now impose fresh tariffs on European countries. The resulting broad gains helped the Aussie hit an 18-month peak against the yen at 107.51 , and an eight-month top on the euro at 0.5812 euros . The kiwi dollar was also firm at $0.5845 after rising 0.2% overnight to reach a four-month top of $0.5865. A sustained breach of $0.5853 resistance sets up a return to $0.6007. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australian-dollar-scales-15-month-high-strong-jobs-data-2026-01-22/
2026-01-22 00:49
Jobless rate falls to 4.1%, lowest since last May The economy adds 65,200 jobs, participation rate rises Market pricing implies 57% chance of February rate hike Much depends on fourth-quarter inflation report next week SYDNEY, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Australia's jobless rate dropped to a seven-month low and employment figures blew past forecasts in December, prompting markets to now factor in a more than 50% chance of an interest rate hike next month. The Australian dollar gained almost 0.6% to reach a 15-month peak of $0.68, while three-year government bond yields hit a more than two-year high of 4.238%. Sign up here. Investors currently see a 57% chance of a rate hike from the Reserve Bank of Australia on February 3, up from 29% before the data was released. Investment bank UBS said it expected an RBA rate rise in February; it previously expected a hike by the second quarter. "For the RBA, the labour market still likely needs to ease, to reduce pressure on inflation, to have confidence to achieve its CPI target," said UBS economists in a note to clients. "At the moment, it's going the wrong way." A FESTIVE SEASON SURGE Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed the jobless rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.1%, the lowest level since May last year, from 4.3%. Analysts had looked for a rise to 4.4% and the central bank had also predicted a 4.4% rate by the December quarter. Net employment jumped by 65,200 in December from November, when it dropped a revised 28,700. That was way above market forecasts of a 30,000 gain, while full-time jobs rebounded by 54,800. The participation rate ticked up to 66.7%, from 66.6%, while hours worked rose 0.4% to a record of over 2 billion hours. The statistics bureau attributed the labour market strength to more young people, aged 15-24, moving into employment last month during the festive season. Annual growth in jobs, however, slowed further to 1.1% in December, down from 3.5% at the start of the year. Coupled with record-high house prices and robust consumer spending, Australia's recent flow of economic data seems to be suggesting that the monetary policy might not be restrictive at all after three rate cuts last year in the cash rate to 3.6%. Fourth-quarter inflation figures due next Wednesday look set to make or break the case of a February hike. "The magic number for trimmed mean inflation is 3.2%. Anything above that will warrant a hike when the RBA board next meets in early February," said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research for Oxford Economics Australia. "Anything at or below should be enough for the board to hold rates steady – at least until the next meeting." Two of the four biggest Australian banks - the Commonwealth Bank of Australia and the National Australia Bank - have since late last year called for a hike next month, arguing the economy is bumping up against its speed limit. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australia-december-unemployment-rate-drops-7-month-low-jobs-jump-2026-01-22/
2026-01-22 00:14
China’s tax revamp in focus as traders brace for margin squeeze Buyers emerge in spot markets for precautionary import State refiners to be hit the hardest as they are the key suppliers - analysts BEIJING/NEW DELHI, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Chinese importers of naphtha could boost stocks in the first quarter of 2026 ahead of an imminent consumption tax on the petrochemical feedstock that will raise costs for suppliers, traders and analysts said. The proposed 2,105 yuan ($302) per ton levy would apply to naphtha sold domestically, according to Chinese consultancies GL Consulting and FGENexant. Sign up here. The tax, aimed at plugging a tax loophole and boosting state revenue, could deepen margin pressure on long-struggling petrochemical producers and exacerbate cash flow strains amid weak demand. Local tax authorities told naphtha suppliers in December that domestic sales of the feedstock would be subjected to consumption tax and associated surcharges from the first quarter of 2026, consultancies GL Consulting and FGENexant said in separate notes. These taxes, which were previously waived, would apply to naphtha transactions between refineries and end-users. China's tax bureau has yet to send an official notice, the consultancies said. China's tax bureau did not respond to a Reuters request for comment. TAXES TO RAISE COSTS "This step will hit petrochemical margins," Armaan Ashraf, director of natural gas liquids and Asia oils at consultancy FGENexant said. "It is aimed at plugging a loophole in the policy where some producers sought exemption from tax on naphtha being used as (gasoline) blendstock instead of ethylene or aromatics production." While sellers can seek tax rebates, there is a longer processing period of three to six months for domestic supply compared with imported cargoes, they said, which will tighten companies' liquidity and increase their financial costs. Also, sellers of domestic naphtha have to pay an additional 12% social security tax surcharge that is not refundable, which could make imports more profitable, a state oil official said. The official declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak to the media. STATE REFINERS MOST AFFECTED Zhaojun Bian, an analyst at Chinese consultancy JLC, said state-owned refiners would be most affected by the taxes as they are the dominant suppliers. The official and FGENexant's Ashraf expect importers to buy more naphtha in the first quarter as the taxes may reduce demand for domestic supply in the initial weeks of implementation. Meanwhile, Chinese naphtha importers, including CNOOC, Sinopec's (600028.SS) , opens new tab trading arm Unipec, have been seeking additional spot supplies at premiums between $1 and $4 per ton to Japan quotes for second-half February delivery, market participants said, adding that the buying was likely precautionary ahead of policy change. CNOOC and Sinopec did not respond to a Reuters request for immediate comment. According to Kpler shiptracking data, CNOOC has purchased nearly 221,000 metric tons (about 2 million barrels) of naphtha in January to date, up 12.6% from a year earlier. ($1 = 6.9634 Chinese yuan) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/chinas-naphtha-imports-rise-ahead-tax-revamp-traders-say-2026-01-21/
