2025-06-20 18:08
June 20 (Reuters) - A measure of future U.S. economic activity fell in May for the sixth straight month and triggered a recession signal, held down by consumer pessimism, weak new orders for manufactured goods, an uptick in jobless benefits claims and a drop in building permit applications. The Conference Board's Leading Economic Index fell by 0.1% to 99.0 last month after a downwardly revised 1.4% drop in April, which was the largest decline in the index since the spring of 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. The decline matched the consensus expectation among economists polled by Reuters. Sign up here. A rebound in stock prices in May following a series of temporary roll backs in President Donald Trump's wave of tariffs was the main positive contributor to the index, the Conference Board's senior manager for business cycle indicators, Justyna Zabinska-La Monica, said in a statement. But that was slightly outweighed by those other factors. "With the substantial negatively revised drop in April and the further downtick in May, the six-month growth rate of the Index has become more negative, triggering the recession signal," she said. "The Conference Board does not anticipate recession, but we do expect a significant slowdown in economic growth in 2025 compared to 2024, with real GDP growing at 1.6% this year and persistent tariff effects potentially leading to further deceleration in 2026." The Leading Index had signaled a recession a few years ago during the peak of the inflation wave that followed the pandemic, but the economy never slid into contraction. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-leading-indicators-slip-may-triggering-recession-signal-conference-board-says-2025-06-20/
2025-06-20 17:43
WASHINGTON, June 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court declined on Friday to speed up its consideration of whether to take up a challenge to President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs even before lower courts have ruled in the dispute. The Supreme Court denied a request by a family-owned toy company, Learning Resources, that filed the legal challenge against Trump's tariffs to expedite the review of the dispute by the nation's top judicial body. Sign up here. The company, which makes educational toys, won a court ruling on May 29 that Trump cannot unilaterally impose tariffs using the emergency legal authority he had cited for them. That ruling is currently on hold, leaving the tariffs in place for now. Learning Resources asked the Supreme Court to take the rare step of immediately hearing the case to decide the legality of the tariffs, effectively leapfrogging the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit in Washington, where the case is pending. Two district courts have ruled that Trump's tariffs are not justified under the law he cited for them, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Both of those cases are on appeal. No court has yet backed the sweeping emergency tariff authority Trump has claimed. https://www.reuters.com/legal/government/us-supreme-court-declines-speed-up-decision-taking-up-fight-over-trump-tariffs-2025-06-20/
2025-06-20 17:42
Oil markets have rallied since Israel-Iran conflict escalated Putin says OPEC+ is raising oil output, but gradually ST PETERSBURG, Russia, June 20 (Reuters) - Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Friday that oil prices had not risen significantly due to the conflict between Iran and Israel, and that there was no need for the OPEC+ group of oil producers to intervene in oil markets. Oil prices have rallied as a week-old air war between Israel and Iran escalated and uncertainty about potential U.S. involvement kept investors on edge, with Brent crude futures touching their highest since late January. Sign up here. Putin said the price of oil now stands at around $75 per barrel, while before the conflict escalated it stood at $65. "Of course, we see that the current situation in the Middle East, the current situation related to the conflict between Iran and Israel, has led to a certain increase in prices. But this increase, in the opinion of our experts, is not significant," Putin told the St Petersburg Economic Forum. Iran is the third largest producer among members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Hostilities could disrupt its supply of oil and thereby increase prices. Putin also said OPEC and allies including Russia - a group known as OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil - were increasing oil output, but doing so gradually, to ensure balance in the oil market and "comfortable" prices. "We will all see together how the situation unfolds. So far no immediate response is required," he said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/putin-says-no-need-opec-intervene-oil-market-due-iran-israel-conflict-2025-06-20/
2025-06-20 13:49
Retail sales in April grew by 0.3% led by motor vehicles, parts Advanced estimate show sales likely to contract by 1.1% in May Analysts had estimated April sales to increase by 0.5% OTTAWA, June 20 (Reuters) - Canada's retail sales were up in April on a monthly basis but were below estimates, data showed on Friday, as the momentum seen in the previous months when customers advanced purchases to beat the impact of tariffs continued. Retail sales in April grew by 0.3% to C$70.11 billion ($51.11 billion) from 0.8% observed in the month earlier, Statistics Canada said, adding sales grew in six of the nine subsectors. Sign up here. An advanced estimate of sales shows that the number is likely to contract by 1.1% in May. "Canadian consumers continued to spend in April, but a decline in the May advance estimate for retail sales provides another indication that the economy is heading for a stall in Q2," Andrew Grantham, senior economist at CIBC Capital Markets wrote in a note. Retail sales are closely watched by economists and analysts as they give an indication of the trend of the GDP. They had been largely increasing in the previous months as uncertainty around the timing and magnitude of tariffs brought forward purchases. The sales have started showing signs of decline as tariffs have come into effect and analysts expect that they are likely to go down in the coming months. Feedback from respondents for April highlighted the effects of trade tensions between Canada and the United States on Canadian retail businesses, the statistics agency said. "Despite six of nine subsectors posting monthly gains in retail sales, all nine subsectors saw a negative impact on sales," it said. Analysts polled by Reuters had estimated the April sales to increase by 0.5% on a monthly basis and 0.2% excluding automotive and parts sales. StatsCan reported that excluding automotive and parts sales, the number shrank by 0.3% from a drop of 0.8% in March. The biggest jump in sales in April came from sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers, registering a growth of 1.9%, and was led by sales at new car dealers and used car dealers. This is the biggest category of sales and contributes over a quarter of total retail sales. The biggest drop in sales came from gasoline stations and fuel vendors which shrank by 2.7% and were closely followed by sales at retailers selling clothing and accessories posting a drop of 2.2%. In volume terms, retail sales increased 0.5% in April. ($1 = 1.3718 Canadian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-retail-sales-up-april-likely-post-big-drop-may-2025-06-20/
2025-06-20 12:33
KARACHI, June 20 (Reuters) - Pakistan has signed term sheets with 18 commercial banks for a 1.275 trillion Pakistani rupee ($4.50 billion) Islamic finance facility to help pay down mounting debt in its power sector, the power minister said on Friday. The government, which owns or controls much of the power infrastructure, is grappling with ballooning “circular debt”, unpaid bills and subsidies, that has choked the sector and weighed on the economy. Sign up here. The liquidity crunch has disrupted supply, discouraged investment and added to fiscal pressure, making it a key focus under Pakistan’s $7 billion IMF programme. Finding funds to plug the gap has been a persistent challenge, with limited fiscal space and high-cost legacy debt making resolution efforts more difficult. “Eighteen commercial banks will provide these loans through Islamic financing,” Power Minister Awais Leghari told Reuters. “It will be repaid in 24 quarterly instalments over six years.” The facility, structured under Islamic principles, is secured at a concessional rate of 3-month KIBOR, the benchmark rate banks use to price loans, minus 0.9%, a formula agreed on by the IMF. Leghari said it will not add to public debt. Existing liabilities carry higher costs, including late payment surcharges on Independent Power Producers of up to KIBOR plus 4.5%, and older loans ranging slightly above benchmark rates. Meezan Bank (AMZN.PSX) , opens new tab, HBL (HBL.PSX) , opens new tab, National Bank of Pakistan (NBPK.PSX) , opens new tab and UBL (UBL.PSX) , opens new tab were among the banks participating in the deal, he said. The government expects to allocate 323 billion rupees annually to repay the loan, capped at 1.938 trillion rupees over six years. The agreement also aligns with Pakistan’s target of eliminating interest-based banking by 2028, with Islamic finance now comprising about a quarter of total banking assets. ($1 = 283.5000 Pakistani rupees) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/pakistan-signs-45-billion-loans-with-local-banks-ease-power-sector-debt-2025-06-20/
2025-06-20 12:22
SINGAPORE, June 20 (Reuters) - Sellers of Iranian oil to China are offering deeper discounts this month as they look to reduce inventories and as independent refiners slow their buying due to a jump in crude prices, traders and analysts said. Iranian Light crude oil is being traded at $3.30-$3.50 a barrel below ICE Brent for July deliveries, compared to a discount of around $2.50 for June, three traders said. Sign up here. Independent refineries, known as teapots, are the main Chinese buyers of Iranian crude. They are currently being squeezed by a $10 a barrel surge in crude prices since the Israel-Iran conflict began last week. Teapots in refining hub Shandong province are incurring their deepest losses this year, traders said. Consultancy Sublime China Information estimates average losses at 353 yuan ($49.15) per metric ton this week. Shandong refinery operations remained low at 51% of capacity as of June 18, down from 64% a year earlier, Sublime data showed. STORAGE RISING Meanwhile, stocks of Iranian oil, including in Chinese storage, in tankers near and off Chinese ports awaiting discharge, and in floating storage near Malaysia and Singapore, amount to roughly 70 million barrels, according to analytics firm Vortexa. That is enough for two months' demand for Iranian oil from China, the biggest buyer. Data from tanker tracker Kpler points to a stockbuild of more than 30 million barrels this year in floating storage. Both Kpler and Vortexa estimate total Iranian oil on the water, including floating storage, at nearly 120 million barrels, the most since at least 2023. Recent U.S. sanctions on three Chinese teapots curtailed buying from several mid-sized independents worried about being designated, Reuters has reported. One trader estimated the volume of Iranian supply to China replaced by non-sanctioned barrels at 100,000 barrels per day in the first half of 2025 - a fraction of the 1.4-1.5 million bpd of Iranian oil being delivered to China. ($1 = 7.1819 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/discounts-deepen-iranian-oil-china-struggling-teapots-slow-buying-2025-06-20/
