2025-06-10 04:34

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Johann M Cherian With precious little to report out of Sino-U.S. trade talks in London, investors are ready to pounce on almost any sign a thaw in the frigid relationship between the two superpowers is just around the corner. Sign up here. Stocks in Asia are creeping higher, as are U.S. and European equity futures , while the dollar was also a tad firmer after President Donald Trump said he was getting "good reports" from Monday's meeting with China. Talks resume at 0900 GMT on Tuesday at Lancaster House and markets want a deal to flesh out details around U.S. tech export controls and those around Chinese rare earths, and of course, where the final average rate of tariffs will settle. Recent data indicates the trade war is taking a toll on both major economies, which could soon rattle other major economies. Global investors are also in the market for fresh trade deals, with about a month left before Trump's tariff pause expires. Also expected out of the UK will be an employment report with investors and the Bank of England keen on how pay growth - a reflection of broader price pressures - fared in April. Signs of cooling wage growth could be a relief for BoE policymakers who are currently divided on the approach to further monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, the global healthcare sector was caught in the crossfire as vaccine sceptic U.S. Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. fired all members of a U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention panel of vaccine experts. The move could be a headache for companies such as GSK (GSK.L) , opens new tab, Sanofi (SASY.PA) , opens new tab, AstraZeneca (AZN.L) , opens new tab, Moderna (MRNA.O) , opens new tab and BioNTech (22UAy.DE) , opens new tab as they face longer waits for vaccine approvals. Advertising firms weren't spared from scrutiny either as the Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Federal Trade Commission has sought information from some of the industry's leading firms. Omnicom (OMC.N) , opens new tab, WPP (WPP.L) , opens new tab, Dentsu (4324.T) , opens new tab, Interpublic Group (IPG.N) , opens new tab and Publicis Groupe (PUBP.PA) , opens new tab were among those asked by the watchdog on whether advertising and advocacy groups violated antitrust laws by coordinating boycotts of certain sites. Key developments that could influence markets on Tuesday: - UK May BRC retail sales - UK April employment data - U.S. 3-year Treasury note auction - Reserve Bank of Australia Governance Board meeting Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-06-10/

2025-06-10 03:02

MUMBAI, June 10 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee will likely see slight pressure on Tuesday in the wake of a mostly firm U.S. dollar, while the market focuses on the outcome of the U.S.-China trade talks. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicated an open in the 85.63-85.66 range versus 85.62 in the previous session. Sign up here. The dollar index was up 0.24% on the day, while the majority of the Asian currencies were slightly weaker. "There's not much happening in Asia and the rupee anyway is essentially stuck in a narrow band," said a currency trader at a Mumbai-based bank. "It'll likely be a session with a 20-paisa range at most," he said, adding that the bias, if any, leans modestly to the downside for the rupee. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) larger-than-expected 50-basis-points interest rate cut on Friday has had little impact on the rupee so far, the trader pointed out. The currency is marginally higher than it was before the RBI's outsized cut. The market's attention is firmly fixed on updates from London, where the U.S. and Chinese officials are holding trade talks that are aimed at easing trade tensions between the world's two largest economies. On Monday, U.S. President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone, saying his administration was doing well and that he had received "good reports" on the progress of the discussions. The meeting between the officials of the two countries is set to extend to a second day on Tuesday, with analysts noting that while headline risks around U.S. trade policy have diminished, significant concerns still persist. The uncertainty remains elevated on U.S. trade policy amid concerns about the timeline of any bilateral trade deals and the legality of tariffs following the U.S. Court of International Trade ruling that declared most tariffs illegal, ANZ Bank said. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 85.75; onshore one-month forward premium at 8 paise ** Dollar index up at 99.20 ** Brent crude futures up 0.5% to $67.4 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.49% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $147.5 million worth of Indian shares on June 6 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $85.8 mln worth of Indian bonds on June 6 https://www.reuters.com/world/china/mild-bearish-bias-rupee-dollar-strength-us-china-talks-eyed-2025-06-10/

2025-06-10 02:32

TOKYO, June 10 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on Tuesday stressed anew the central bank's readiness to keep raising interest rates if underlying inflation approaches its 2% target. The BOJ has said underlying inflation, or demand-driven price pressure measured by various indicators, remains short of its 2% target - even though the broader core consumer inflation has exceeded that level for three years. Sign up here. Ueda said the BOJ is keeping real interest rates negative to ensure that underlying inflation reaches 2%, and stabilises around that level in a sustainable fashion. "Once we have more conviction that underlying inflation will approach 2% or hover around that level, we will continue to raise interest rates to adjust the degree of monetary support," Ueda told parliament. The BOJ ended a decade-long, massive stimulus programme last year and in January raised short-term interest rates to 0.5% on the view Japan was on the cusp of durably meeting its 2% inflation target. While the central bank has signalled readiness to raise rates further, the economic repercussions from higher U.S. tariffs forced it to cut its growth forecasts and complicated decisions around the timing of the next rate increase. Although the BOJ is eyeing further rate hikes, Ueda said the central bank must be mindful of the risk of hitting the zero lower bound again - or being forced to push interest rates down to zero and leaving itself with few tools to battle a recession. "It's not something that could happen immediately. But if the economy and prices come under strong downward pressure, the BOJ would have limited scope to cut interest rates and underpin growth," Ueda said. "That's why we need to be mindful of the zero lower bound." The BOJ is widely expected to keep interest rates steady at 0.5% at its next policy meeting on June 16-17. (This story has been corrected to say 'because,' from 'to ensure,' in paragraph 2) https://www.reuters.com/en/bojs-ueda-vows-keep-raising-rates-if-underlying-inflation-accelerates-2025-06-10/

2025-06-10 00:53

US and China enter second day of talks in London Saudi crude exports to China set to fall slightly Upcoming: US oil inventory data from API and EIA NEW YORK, June 10 (Reuters) - Oil prices held near a seven-week high on Tuesday as the market awaited direction from trade talks between the U.S. and China. Analysts have said a trade deal between the countries with the world's two biggest economies could boost prices by supporting global economic growth and increasing oil demand. Sign up here. Brent crude futures slid 17 cents, or 0.3%, to settle at $66.87 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 31 cents, or 0.5%, to settle at $64.98. On Monday, Brent settled at its highest since April 22 and WTI at its highest since April 3. Trade talks between the U.S. and China stretched through a second full day and into the evening in London as the two countries pushed for a breakthrough on duelling export controls that have threatened to unravel a delicate tariff truce. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said trade talks with Chinese officials were going well and he hoped they would end on Tuesday night, but said they could run into Wednesday. The World Bank, meanwhile, slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a "significant headwind" for nearly all economies. On the supply side, allocations to Chinese refiners showed that Saudi Arabia's state oil company Saudi Aramco will ship about 47 million barrels of oil to China in July, 1 million barrels less than June's allotted volume, Reuters reported. The Saudi allocations could be an early sign that the unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts might not result in much additional supply, said Harry Tchilinguirian, group head of research at Onyx Capital. "The prospect of further hikes in OPEC supply continues to hang over the market," ANZ senior commodity strategist Daniel Hynes said in a note. OPEC+, which pumps about half of the world's oil and includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, put forward plans for an output increase of 411,000 barrels per day for July as it looks to unwind production cuts for a fourth straight month. A Reuters survey found OPEC's May increase to oil output was limited, with Iraq, the second biggest OPEC producer behind Saudi Arabia, pumping below target to compensate for earlier overproduction, and Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates making smaller increases than agreed. Elsewhere, Iran said it would soon make a counter-proposal for a nuclear deal in response to a U.S. offer that Tehran deems "unacceptable," while U.S. President Donald Trump made clear that the two sides remained at odds over whether Tehran would be allowed to continue enriching uranium on Iranian soil. Iran is the third-largest OPEC producer and any easing of U.S. sanctions on Tehran should allow Iran to export more oil, which should reduce crude prices. Meanwhile, the European Commission proposed an 18th package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, aimed at Moscow's energy revenues, banks and military industry. Russia was the world's second biggest crude producer in 2024 behind the U.S., and any increase in sanctions will likely keep more of that oil out of global markets, which could support oil prices. U.S. OIL INVENTORIES AND EXPORTS The American Petroleum Institute trade group and the U.S. Energy Information Administration are due to release U.S. oil inventory data on Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively. , Analysts forecast energy firms pulled about 2 million barrels of oil from U.S. stockpiles during the week ended June 6, marking the first time they withdrew oil from storage for three weeks in a row since January. That compares with an increase of 3.7 million barrels during the same week last year and an average increase of 2.8 million barrels over the past five years (2020-2024). https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-inches-up-outcome-us-china-trade-talks-awaited-2025-06-10/

2025-06-09 23:47

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, June 9 (Reuters) - Second-worst ever. That’s how health conditions for the 2025 U.S. winter wheat crop were described last autumn. But winter wheat ratings now sit at a six-year high for early June, just as the harvest is kicking off. This is exactly what U.S. exporters need to continue – and potentially expand – their impressive sales into next year. Sign up here. As of Sunday, the U.S. Department of Agriculture rated 54% of the U.S. winter wheat crop in good or excellent (GE) condition, above trade expectations and up from 50% two weeks earlier. That is up significantly from 38% GE in late October, which was the crop’s second-worst start in the 39-year dataset. The 16-percentage-point improvement since then is the period’s largest. U.S. winter wheat at 54% GE is the date’s best rating since 64% in 2019. The crop was 62% GE at this point in 2016, which still holds the record U.S. winter wheat yield. Final yields were about 13% and 7% above the long-term trend in 2016 and 2019, respectively. For comparison, winter wheat was 47% GE one year ago and final yields were close to trend. Analysts expect USDA on Thursday to make a marginal increase to its 2025-26 U.S. winter wheat harvest forecast, but the trade has already been wrong on this crop. A month ago, USDA’s crop peg was at the very top of market guesses. USDA a month ago pegged 2025-26 U.S. winter wheat yield at a nine-year high of 53.7 bushels per acre, which would be roughly 3% above trend. RAIN, RAIN, GO AWAY Not everything is going perfectly. The U.S. winter wheat harvest was 4% completed as of Sunday, a weekly advancement of just 1 percentage point. The trade was looking for 8%. In the No. 3 winter wheat state of Oklahoma, only 5% of the crop has been harvested compared with 44% a year ago and a five-year average of 23%. Over the past couple of weeks, top hard red winter wheat (HRW) states like Kansas and Oklahoma have observed more than double their normal rainfall totals. Some HRW wheat areas may continue experiencing heavier rains over the next several days, mainly in the southern portion. Top grower Kansas should remain on the drier side in the next week or so, favoring harvest pace there. If excessive rains were to continue, it could be a problem. Not only do they delay harvest, but they could reduce grain quality, clipping both test weights and starch content and ultimately, the value. Foreign buyers are counting on that wheat. As of May 29, U.S. wheat export sales for the 2025-26 marketing year that began on June 1 sat at a 12-year high for the date following a surge in bookings last month. Some 39% of those bookings were for the HRW variety, the date’s largest portion in five years and up from 24% a year ago. By volume, U.S. HRW export sales for 2025-26 are at a 17-year high. New-crop U.S. hard red spring wheat also rang in 2025-26 with total sales among the best in decades. U.S. spring wheat health is trending positively, too. Some 53% of that crop was rated GE as of Sunday, up from the initial 45% two weeks earlier. Ironically, as with winter wheat, that was spring wheat’s second-worst initial health rating on record. The 53% is still below average for the date, but the big improvement is promising. U.S. spring wheat producers may be able to partly offset their 55-year low in plantings should weather continue its favorable trajectory. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI) , opens new tab, your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-wheat-gets-glow-up-multiyear-highs-crop-health-export-sales-braun-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 23:15

Takes total government investment to 17.8 billion pounds Project will supply 6 million homes with electricity Total expected cost of the project not revealed LONDON, June 10 (Reuters) - Britain will invest a further 14.2 billion pounds ($19.25 billion) to build the Sizewell C nuclear plant in southeast England, the government said on Tuesday, as part of its wider spending review which will define its priorities over the next four years. Britain is seeking to build new nuclear plants to replace its ageing fleet to boost its energy security, reach its climate targets and also create new jobs. Sign up here. The funding announced on Tuesday takes the total amount the government has committed to the project to 17.8 billion pounds, with 3.6 billion pounds invested prior to the spending review. "This Labour Government is launching a new era of nuclear power here in Britain," Chancellor Rachel Reeves told a trade union conference on Tuesday, calling the investment the biggest rollout of nuclear power in a generation. The Sizewell C plant in Suffolk is expected to create around 10,000 jobs during the peak of construction, and produce enough electricity to power around 6 million homes when built. Britain has been seeking to bring new investors into the project but Tuesday's announcement did not mention any other parties. The government has not said how much the project is expected to cost in total or given a date for when it is expected to be completed. "With the continued secrecy about Sizewell C's total cost, how can voters decide whether the 18 billion pounds pledged to Sizewell C is a good use of their money?" said Alison Downes of campaign group Stop Sizewell C. It would be only the second new nuclear plant built in Britain in more than two decades, after French state-owned EDF's Hinkley Point C which has had several delays and cost overruns and is currently expected to start operations in 2029, with an estimated cost of between 31 and 34 billion pounds at 2015 prices. EDF initially said Sizewell C would be around 20% cheaper than Hinkley C. Simone Rossi, CEO of EDF in the UK welcomed the British government's decision to go ahead with Sizewell C and said: "It is also a vote of confidence in Hinkley Point C, which has re-started the UK nuclear industry and built the experience and skills that will benefit Sizewell C." Sizewell C was originally being developed by EDF and China's General Nuclear Power Group but the government bought out the Chinese firms stake in 2022 amid security concerns. The UK government's stake was 83.8% and EDF's stake was 16.2% at the end of December, EDF financial results showed in February with EDF's stake expected to decrease following Tuesday's announcement. The project's developer last December told Reuters there were five investors involved in a bidding process. ($1 = 0.7378 pounds) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/britain-invest-142-billion-pounds-sizewell-c-nuclear-project-2025-06-09/