2025-06-09 05:57

US, China in trade talks in London Last week's better than expected US jobs report provides relief Japan tariff negotiator to visit US late this week, report says China's May exports slow, deflation deepens as tariffs bite NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar weakened against most major currencies on Monday, moving in narrow ranges, as market participants consolidated gains racked up following Friday's better-than-expected U.S. employment report and shifted their focus to pivotal U.S.-China trade talks in London. The meeting of top officials from both countries intends to address disagreements around a preliminary pact struck last month in Geneva, briefly cooling tensions between the world's two largest economies. Negotiations could last up to two days. Sign up here. The talks come at a crucial time for both sides, with China grappling with deflation and trade uncertainty dampening sentiment among U.S. businesses and consumers, prompting investors to reassess the dollar's safe-haven status. Customs data showed China's export growth slowed to a three-month low in May as U.S. tariffs slammed shipments, while factory-gate deflation saw its worst level in two years. China's exports to the U.S. plunged 34.5% year-on-year in May value terms, the sharpest drop since February 2020, when the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic upended global trade. In afternoon trading, the dollar was down about 0.2% against the Japanese currency at 144.55 yen after two consecutive weeks of gains. Japan is considering buying back some super-long government bonds issued in the past at low interest rates, two sources with direct knowledge of the plan said on Monday, underscoring its focus on reining in any abrupt rises in bond yields. "The dollar is retreating and momentum is fading...putting downward pressure on trading ranges and measures of implied volatility," said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist, at Corpay in Toronto. "Investors believe that positive headlines emanating from the U.S.-China trade talks are largely priced in across the major currency pairs, Wednesday's inflation numbers are expected to come in soft, and even Thursday's 30-year Treasury auction is seen meeting with solid investor demand." The euro , meanwhile, rose 0.3% versus the greenback to $1.1427, as markets continued to price in the European Central Bank's monetary policy outlook issued last week, which indicated it may be close to ending its easing cycle. Sterling also gained versus the greenback, adding 0.3% to $1.362. "The situation is looking more like (in) the second half of the year, the Fed will need to get dovish and help the financial environment," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. "Ultimately, if the U.S. is going to be struggling, there is no clear reason to have any long-term faith in the dollar." The dollar index, a gauge of the greenback's value against six major currencies, dipped 0.2% to 98.942 . Elsewhere, China's offshore yuan was last at 7.18 per dollar, little changed on the day. New Zealand's dollar rose 0.6% to US$0.6054, while the Australian dollar was last up 0.4% at US$0.6522 in light volumes. Also on the trade front was a report that said Japan's chief trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa is planning a sixth round of talks in Washington. Later in the week, an inflation report out of the U.S. for May will be the focus, as investors and Federal Reserve policymakers look for the impact of trade restrictive policies on the economy. "With the labor market looking resilient but not overheated, it should help keep services inflation within a reasonable range," wrote BeiChen Lin, senior investment strategist at Russell Investments in emailed comments. "For now, medium-term inflation expectations still look well-anchored. So even if there is a near-term boost to prices from trade policy, as long as the Fed believes these effects to be non-persistent, we could still see rate cuts this year." Fed officials have signalled that they are in no rush to cut interest rates and signs of economic resilience will likely cement their stance. Interest rate futures showed that investors are anticipating that the U.S. central bank may cut borrowing costs by 25 basis points (bps) later this year, with the earliest likely in October, according to data compiled by LSEG calculations . Rate futures have priced in just 47 bps of cuts in 2025. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/dollar-steadies-after-rally-focus-shifts-us-china-trade-talks-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 05:56

US and China set for trade talks in London US dollar down 0.2% against a basket of peers Platinum hits four-year high June 9 (Reuters) - Gold prices rose on Monday, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar ahead of U.S.-China trade talks aimed at resolving tensions, while platinum extended gains for a sixth straight session to scale a four-year peak. Spot gold rose 0.3% to $3,317.97 an ounce, as of 1124 GMT, after dropping earlier in the session to $3,293.29, its lowest level since June 2. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures fell 0.2% to $3,338.70. The dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab fell 0.2% against a basket of peers, making bullion cheaper for holders of other currencies. Investors recognise that drivers of gold, including trade and geopolitical tensions, debt concerns and weak economic growth, remain in place and should continue to support the metal in the months ahead, said Giovanni Staunovo, an analyst at UBS. U.S. and Chinese officials will sit down in London on Monday for talks aimed at defusing the trade dispute between the two superpowers. Stronger-than-expected U.S. non-farm payrolls data have led investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts this year from two to one in October. Market attention will turn to U.S. CPI data, due on Wednesday, for further clues on the Fed's monetary policy path. Gold, considered a safe-haven asset during political and economic uncertainty, tends to thrive in a low-rate environment. Meanwhile, China's central bank added gold to its reserves in May for the seventh straight month, official data showed. Spot platinum rose 2.7% to $1,200.95, its highest level since May 2021. "It (platinum's rally) is supported by a combination of tight supply expectations, improving industrial sentiment, and technical follow-through from the broader precious metals rally," said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany. Spot silver was up 0.9% to $36.27 per ounce, while palladium rose 2.5% to $1,072.96. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/gold-drops-us-china-trade-deal-hopes-ease-safe-haven-demand-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 05:43

US-China talks aim to ease trade tensions Dollar slips amid caution around trade talks S&P 500, Nasdaq close higher, Dow ends flat NEW YORK, June 9 (Reuters) - Global stocks climbed on Monday while the dollar retreated as talks began in London between the United States and China, aimed at cooling a trade dispute between the world's two largest economies. The dispute has expanded beyond tit-for-tat tariffs to restrictions over rare earths, threatening to cripple supply chains and slow global growth. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump said his administration was doing well and that he was getting good reports as U.S. officials hold the talks with China in London. “The market deems any dialogue with Beijing as progress, whether or not it leads to tangible results. The market is just going to take the administration's word for it, until proven otherwise,” said Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management in Tulsa, Oklahoma. On Wall Street, the S&P and Nasdaq closed higher, with the Dow ending flat as declines in Travelers (TRV.N) , opens new tab and McDonald's (MCD.N) , opens new tab, the latter of which was downgraded by Morgan Stanley to an "equal-weight" rating, curbed gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 1.11 points, or flat, to 42,761.76, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 5.52 points, or 0.09%, to 6,005.88 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab rose 61.28 points, or 0.31%, to 19,591.24. Small-cap stocks outperformed, with the S&P 600 (.SPCY) , opens new tab index up 0.9%. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab advanced 1.94 points, or 0.22%, to 893.90 and was on track for its second straight session of gains. It has risen in five of the last six sessions. In Europe, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.07% to snap a four-session winning streak, its longest run of consecutive gains in three weeks. The U.S. dollar slipped against most major currencies, as optimism over a better-than-expected U.S. employment report on Friday was offset by caution ahead of the trade talks. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are representing Washington in the talks in London, Trump said in a social media post. China's foreign ministry said Vice Premier He Lifeng was in Britain for the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism. U.S. economic data showed wholesale inventories increased in April amid stockpiling of prescription medication in anticipation of tariffs from the Trump administration. Investors are also awaiting U.S. inflation data on Wednesday that may adjust expectations for the timing of any rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said they see May as the starting point for a string of increasingly strong core inflation prints, with the push from tariffs peaking in the third quarter and beginning to fade in the fourth quarter. The market does not see the Fed likely to cut before its September meeting, currently pricing in a 62% chance for a cut of at least 25 basis points, according to LSEG data. Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the June 18 policy decision. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, lost 0.14% to 98.97, with the euro up 0.25% at $1.1423. Longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields were lower at the start of the week, reversing after Friday's jobs report pushed yields higher. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes declined 2.8 basis points to 4.482%. Investors will monitor auctions of three-, 10- and 30-year U.S. notes and bonds this week for signs of investor demand. U.S. crude settled up 1.1% to $65.29 a barrel and Brent settled at $67.04 per barrel, up 0.86% on the day on hopes a trade deal could spur the global economic outlook along with a softer dollar. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 05:40

MUMBAI, June 9 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was nearly unchanged on Monday, tracking muted moves in Asian currencies, while dollar-rupee forward premiums eased after stronger-than-expected U.S. labour market data dented hopes of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The rupee was at 85.6175 against the U.S. dollar as of 11:00 a.m. IST, little changed from its close at 85.6250 in the previous session. Sign up here. The dollar index was hovering just shy of the 99 handle after rising nearly 0.5% on Friday, boosted by upbeat U.S. jobs data which gave investors some relief following bleak U.S. economic data last week. "The most likely near-term catalyst for USD upside lies in the ongoing U.S. data resilience or even a reacceleration, even if temporary," BofA Global Research said a note. The jobs data also pegged back hopes of Fed rate cuts, with interest rate futures now pricing in 60% odds of a reduction in or before September, compared to nearly 75% before the report was released, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. The scaling back of expectations pushed up near-tenor U.S. bond yields, weighing on dollar-rupee forward premiums, with the 1-year implied yield declining to 1.78%, its lowest level since July 2024. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab - India's benchmark equity indexes - rose 0.5% each on the day, tracking gains in regional equities. The focus on Monday will be on talks aimed at mending a trade rift between the United States and China. The discussions are expected to focus on critical minerals, whose production is dominated by China. In April, China had decided to suspend exports of a wide range of rare earths and related magnets. The curbs have upended supply chains crucial to automakers, aerospace manufacturers, semiconductor companies and military contractors. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-nearly-flat-tracking-subdued-asia-fx-forward-premiums-retreat-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 05:38

LAUNCESTON, Australia, June 9 (Reuters) - China's imports of major commodities lost momentum in May, with crude oil, coal, iron ore and copper all recording declines amid concerns about growth in the world's second-biggest economy. Only imports of natural gas showed any improvement, with May's 10.11 million metric tons slightly ahead of the 9.67 million in April, although they were still down 11% from a year earlier, according to customs data released on Tuesday. Sign up here. Crude oil arrivals dropped to 10.97 million barrels per day (bpd) in May, down 6.2% from April's 11.69 million bpd and also below the 12.1 million bpd recorded for March, which was the strongest month since August 2023. Iron ore imports slipped to 98.13 million tons in May from 103.14 million tons in April, and were also weaker than the 102.03 million from May last year. Imports of all grades of coal were 36.04 million tons in May, down 4.7% from April's 37.83 million tons and 17.8% weaker than the 42.82 million tons in May 2024. Unwrought copper imports were 427,000 tons in May, down 2.5% from the 438,000 tons in April and also below the 514,000 tons from the same month a year earlier. On the surface the decline in imports of major commodities looks ominous for China as the world's biggest buyer of natural resources faces an ongoing trade war with the United States and still sluggish growth at home, especially in the key residential construction sector. But there is always a risk of reading too much into monthly numbers, which can be quite volatile and are also often driven by price moves during the period when cargoes were arranged. Crude oil is a good example of this. China's imports were weak in January and February, with cargoes delivered in these two months having been bought against a backdrop of rising prices, with benchmark Brent futures rallying from early December to a peak of $82.63 a barrel on Jan. 15. But oil prices started sliding thereafter, with Brent dropping to a low of $58.40 a barrel by April 9. Therefore, the rebound in China's crude imports in March and April came amid a declining price trend when the cargoes would have been bought. However, May cargoes would have been arranged when prices were once again trending higher. It's also worth noting that China's imports of Russian and Iranian crude have also been volatile in recent months, dropping as new U.S. sanctions on vessels were imposed and then recovering as traders worked out ways around the measures. This pattern seems likely to have continued, with commodity analysts Kpler estimating China's imports of Iranian oil at 743,500 bpd in May, but also forecasting a sharp rise to 1.48 million bpd in June. PRICE MOVES Iron ore imports may also have been impacted by price moves, with the price rising modestly over April, the time when most May-arriving cargoes would have been booked. The Singapore Exchange contract reached a recent high of $101.80 a ton on May 14, and has since moderated to end at $96.26 on June 6. While the price moves are modest, the small decline may encourage some buying by China's steel mills, especially given the prevailing view that Beijing will launch new stimulus efforts in coming weeks to boost the economy. Copper imports are also likely reflecting dynamics on global markets rather than the domestic situation in China. China's imports have trended weaker and are now down 6.7% for the first five months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. But physical copper has been shifting to the United States as market players expect President Donald Trump to impose a tariff on imports of the industrial metal. U.S. demand has bolstered the premium of copper for delivery to the United States, and drawn metal away from China. While the London price has been volatile and driven by news reports on what Trump may or may not do, the trend has been to higher prices, with an increase from an April 9 low of $8,105 a ton to $9,701 in early Asian trade on Monday. Coal is the major commodity where China's domestic prices and supply have driven weakness in imports, with strong production and soft local prices cutting the need for imports. Seaborne thermal coal prices have dropped to four-year lows in response, and there are some early signs that demand is picking up, but it will likely take further declines to spark any meaningful interest in boosting imports. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-imports-major-commodities-hiccup-may-2025-06-09/

2025-06-09 05:23

BEIJING, June 9 (Reuters) - China's outbound shipments of rare earths in May jumped 23% on the month to their highest in a year, though Beijing's export curbs on some of the critical minerals halted some overseas sales, with shortages rippling through global manufacturing. China's April export curbs on several types of rare earths and rare earth magnets shut parts of the global auto industry and figured heavily in a rare telephone call last week between the leaders of the United States and China. Sign up here. Rare earth exports of all kinds from the world's largest producer were up 23% in May versus April to stand at 5,864.60 tons, the highest monthly figure in a year. The curbs do not cover all the many types of rare earth products that China exports. Monday's data does not distinguish among them, so a full picture of the curbs' impact will only be provided in a more detailed data release due on June 20. Data released last month showed magnet exports fell by half in April. Several European auto parts plants were forced to stop production last week while semiconductor firms on the continent warned they were weeks away from also doing so. In the first five months of 2025, exports of the group of 17 minerals rose marginally to 24,827 tons from 24,266.5 tons a year earlier, customs data showed. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-rare-earth-exports-jump-23-may-despite-export-curbs-2025-06-09/