2026-01-20 22:27

WASHINGTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The U.S. military said it seized a Venezuela-linked tanker on Tuesday in the Caribbean, marking the seventh such apprehension since the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's month-long campaign to control Venezuela's oil flows. The U.S. military's Southern Command, which is overseeing nearly a dozen warships and thousands of troops in the Caribbean, said in a statement it apprehended the Motor Vessel Sagitta "without incident." Sign up here. "The apprehension of another tanker operating in defiance of President Trump's established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean demonstrates our resolve to ensure that the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully," it said in a statement. Trump has focused his foreign policy in Latin America on Venezuela, initially aiming to push Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power. After failing to find a diplomatic solution, Trump ordered U.S. forces to fly into the country to grab him and his wife in a daring overnight raid on January 3. Since then, Trump has said the U.S. plans to control Venezuela's oil resources indefinitely as it seeks to rebuild the country's dilapidated oil industry in a $100 billion plan. The vessels intercepted in the past have been either under U.S. sanctions or part of a "shadow fleet" of ships that disguise their origins to move oil from major sanctioned producers -- Iran, Russia or Venezuela. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/us-military-seizes-another-venezuela-linked-tanker-caribbean-2026-01-20/

2026-01-20 22:14

ORLANDO, Florida, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Stocks, bonds and the dollar tumbled on Tuesday, as U.S. President Donald Trump's threat to reignite a trade war and sour relations with Europe over Greenland rattled investors, propelling safe-haven gold to yet another record high. More of that below. In my column today, I look at the latest wave of Trump-fueled uncertainty crashing over world markets, and ask the question: Can investors really adequately price such fundamental shifts in the world's geopolitical tectonic plates? Sign up here. If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you make sense of what happened in markets today. Today's Key Market Moves Today's Talking Points * 'De-dollarization' back with a bang We got a glimpse around the 'Liberation Day' tariff chaos last year of what 'de-dollarization' could look like, as investors baulked at U.S. President Donald Trump's bellicose economic and geopolitical policies, even towards America's allies. The trade fizzled out, but could be back with a bang as the world recoils at Trump's stance on Greenland, and Europe more broadly. The dollar, Treasuries and Wall Street all tanked on Tuesday - a toxic combination that Washington won't want to ‌see repeated too often. Will markets force Trump to de-escalate? * The chimes of JGBs crashing Tuesday was an historic day for Japanese government bonds. Prices plunged on worries around the snap general election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi for February 8. The long end of the curve got crushed, and the 30-year yield rose a record 26 basis points. There is a danger that Japan is losing control of the long end of the curve, as a 'doom loop' of investors dumping JGBs and the country's rapidly deteriorating fiscal dynamics intensifies. Unless the Bank of Japan steps in, there are few buyers, if any. * Global risk ratchets up The global investment landscape at the start of 2026 is an inhospitable one. From Venezuela to Greenland, Iran to Japan, politics and markets are creating severe challenges for investors. Risk is piling upon risk, and implied volatility is accelerating higher. Big swings in stocks and currencies are hard enough to navigate, but bond market tremors ‍are more dangerous. Surging borrowing costs suggest sovereign debt is no longer a safe haven, but is instead sounding inflation and risk premium alarm bells. Difficult terrain for investors and policymakers alike. Can you really price global regime change? U.S. President Donald Trump's latest foreign policy and trade war salvos are upsetting global markets, but the question is whether these ructions will escalate or fade away, as was the case during the last 12 months. The latter is probably more likely, but either way, it is apparent that investors are struggling to adequately price the fundamental shifts in the world's geopolitical tectonic plates. And the shifts that have already taken place in 2026 are truly breathtaking. The Trump administration has removed the leader of Venezuela, and claimed to be the Latin American country's de facto ruler. A ⁠violent crackdown on protests in Iran has killed thousands, with the threat of a U.S. response still lingering. And then there is Trump's latest push to acquire Greenland from fellow NATO ally Denmark by any means necessary. The U.S.-Europe alliance, and indeed the very rules-based global order built since World War Two appears to be in jeopardy. The economic and ‍financial terrain is a minefield too. Trump has issued a host of interventionist decrees on issues from credit card rates to mortgage-backed securities, while also pressuring U.S. oil executives to invest billions in Venezuela. And lest we forget, his Justice Department is still threatening to indict Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Until now, though, this "Trumpian assault" on the U.S. and global rules-based order – ‌to borrow a phrase ‌from Matt King, founder of Satori Insights – seemed at odds with the relative calm across markets. That calm is fracturing. The escalating spat between Trump and many of America's closest European allies has triggered a widespread selloff in stocks, bonds and the dollar. Safe-haven gold has continued to climb, busting through $4,700 per ounce. This looks like a return of the so-called 'Sell America' trade. Yet if last year is any guide, these market jitters may turn out to be speed bumps on the way to new highs rather than roadblocks. FUNDAMENTALS MATTER, RIGHT? Putting the geopolitical drama aside, consensus expectations for U.S. economic growth and corporate profits suggest that Wall Street is unlikely to stay down for long. The International Monetary Fund on Monday raised its 2026 U.S. growth estimate to 2.4% from 2.1% in October, due in part to the huge sums being plowed into artificial-intelligence data centers, chips and power generation. Moreover, early indications from the fourth quarter earnings season are encouraging. Of the 33 companies in the S&P 500 that have reported so far, 84.8% have notched ⁠an earnings beat. If the LSEG consensus estimate for year-on-year earnings growth of ⁠9.0% materializes, that should put upward pressure on equities. Finally, it's good to remember that high uncertainty isn't necessarily bad for growth or profits. In some cases, it could even be positive. Think of the investment needed to fund a global rearmament wave, or to fuel the scramble for energy security and AI independence. NO ROOM FOR LIMBO Markets' relative calm over the past year may partly be the result of a virtuous cycle – or, looked at another way, an illusion. Passive investment funds continue to send a steady flow of capital into credit and equity markets, helping to keep volatility low and prices high. As long as the music is playing, investors will keep dancing. But the confusing trends of the last year – including simultaneous rallies in both risk-on and risk-off assets – also reflect the fact that it is simply very difficult ‍to accurately price risk of this scale. What value does an investor assign to the end of NATO and the U.S.-Europe alliance, or the emergence of a new multi-polar world carved into three broad "spheres of influence" headed by the U.S., China and Russia? "For investors, regime change is hard to navigate. It's like you are either at war or you aren't at war. There's no limbo," says Satori Insights' Matt King. "The risk rally is consistent with fundamentals, but not necessarily driven by fundamentals. There's something very odd about it. You can explain it, but there is a degree of vulnerability about it." This applies to corporate earnings too. There's an assumption that tech and broader earnings will remain at current levels. Threats to the cycle – such as excess AI capacity due to competition from China or regulatory pressure from the EU – don't appear to be captured in analysts' forecasts. But those risks still exist. Perhaps Trump's push for Greenland will be the straw that breaks investors' backs, and the ‍current market jitters will turn into a true correction. You might not want to bet on it though. What could move markets tomorrow? Want to receive Trading Day in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for my newsletter here. Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-01-20/

2026-01-20 22:00

Jan 21 (Reuters) - Australia's Lynas Rare Earths (LYC.AX) , opens new tab reported a 43% rise in second-quarter revenue on Wednesday, as higher selling prices eclipsed a production shortfall caused by power disruptions at its ore processing plant. Prices of rare earths have been rising as Western countries scramble to reduce dependence on China. In response, Australia has been mulling a price floor and new international partnerships to support rare earth projects and build alternative supplies. Sign up here. Lynas, the world's largest producer of rare earths outside China, said the selling prices rose in tandem with higher benchmark prices for the elements. The average selling price for Lynas' product range was A$85.6 per kilogram during the quarter, higher than A$49.2 per kg a year ago. The upbeat sentiment has also spilled over to January, Lynas said in its statement. Rare earth elements are crucial for green-energy applications and are used in electric vehicles and smartphones, among other applications. The company's total rare earth oxide output was 2,382 metric tons, lower than 3,993 metric tons in the previous quarter, as power outages at its Kalgoorlie facility in Western Australia hampered production. Last year, the firm said there had been a substantial rise in power supply disruptions at the facility, with outages in November resulting in a significant loss in mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC) production. The Perth-headquartered firm said it had been working to secure off-grid solutions to ensure power stability at the facility. The Kalgoorlie plant produces MREC, which is later processed into high-purity rare earth oxides. Lynas posted sales revenue of A$201.9 million ($135.98 million) for the quarter ended December 31, compared with A$141.2 million a year ago. ($1 = 1.4848 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australias-lynas-rare-earths-posts-43-rise-second-quarter-revenue-2026-01-20/

2026-01-20 21:55

Rio reports iron ore output, including IOC, of 336.6 million tons Vale has said it will reach top end of output forecast of 335 million tons Rio has until Feb 5 to declare formal offer for Glencore MELBOURNE, Jan 21 (Reuters) - Rio Tinto (RIO.AX) , opens new tab beat expectations on Wednesday for quarterly iron ore and copper production in a strong showing for its newly minted CEO, and looked set to retain its crown as the world's top producer of the key steelmaking ingredient. The production report highlights the operational improvements underway at Rio Tinto (RIO.L) , opens new tab as Simon Trott took the helm of the company, which is in merger talks with Glencore (GLEN.L) , opens new tab to form the world's biggest miner. Sign up here. Part of any merger will have Glencore relying on Rio Tinto's operational acumen to improve its mining outcomes. Under UK takeover rules, Rio Tinto has until February 5 to make a formal offer for Glencore or say it will not proceed. "A solid quarter, they have pretty much beat across the board in the main businesses of iron ore, copper, aluminium," said analyst Glyn Lawcock of Barrenjoey. "The only thing I'd call out was the pricing in iron ore was weaker than BHP year on year and sequentially," he said. "The key for Simon in my mind, is delivery on what he promised us in December which is the cost-out program, and hopefully we will get more information from them in February." Rio Tinto's realised iron ore prices in the December half were up 1% sequentially compared to BHP's (BHP.AX) , opens new tab 2% price growth over the same period despite issues with China's state buyer, Lawcock said. BHP said on Tuesday it had accepted lower prices for some iron ore sales while it negotiates a 2026 supply deal with China. Rio said it will release the unit cost performance for 2025 and the 2026 forecast with its full-year results on February 19. Shares rose 1%. RIO VS VALE Despite the comeback performance, Rio Tinto is still in danger of losing the top producer spot to Brazil's Vale (VALE3.SA) , opens new tab, which reports on Monday. Rio shipped 326.2 million metric tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations in 2025, landing at the lower end of its forecast range of 323 to 338 million tons. Total production for the year, including from its Canadian operations, came in at 336.6 million tons. Vale said in October it was tracking towards the upper end of its forecast range at 325 to 335 million tons. The Anglo-Australian miner shipped 91.3 million tons of iron ore from its Pilbara operations for the three months ended December 31, compared with 85.7 million tons shipped in the same period of last year and exceeding Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 88.2 million tons. Mined copper production on a consolidated basis grew 5% to 240,000 tons in the quarter, higher than Visible Alpha's consensus estimate of 214,400 tons. Annual copper production grew 11% to 883,000 tons, coming higher than the top end of Rio's forecast range, driven by the underground ramp-up, higher grades and recovery rates at its Oyu Tolgoi mine in Mongolia. A tie-up with Glencore would buttress Rio's copper portfolio as surging demand from artificial intelligence and energy transition boosts the appeal of the highly conductive metal. https://www.reuters.com/business/rio-tintos-fourth-quarter-iron-ore-shipments-rise-7-2026-01-20/

2026-01-20 21:27

DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said on Tuesday he expected first quarter GDP growth in the United States would exceed 5% in the first quarter of 2026, adding that its interest rates were too high and were holding back stronger growth. Lutnick also warned the European Union not to retaliate against President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs over his attempts to gain U.S. control of Greenland. Sign up here. "Our rates should be much lower so that our economy can finally flourish. I think we're going to grow more than 5% GDP this quarter, and that's for the $30 trillion U.S. economy," he said at the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos. "And if rates were lower, you would see us hit 6% what is holding us back is ourselves," Lutnick said during a panel discussion at the event in the Swiss mountain resort. Lutnick, whose agency oversees the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which prepares U.S. GDP data, said his outlook was his own personal opinion. It was much rosier than U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's, who said in Davos that he expected U.S. real GDP growth this year between 4% and 5%. The International Monetary Fund on Monday forecast U.S. real GDP growth at 2.4% for 2026, a 0.3 percentage point improvement over an October estimate due to continued strong AI investment and a more benign tariff outlook. The relative trade peace could be shattered, however, by Trump's threat to impose tariffs on countries that resist a U.S. takeover of Greenland and potential EU retaliation. If the EU proceeds with such retaliation, Lutnick said, "then we'll be back to tit-for-tat" escalation of tariffs. Lutnick said similar threats were made when Trump first imposed tariffs on EU goods last year, but the two sides agreed on a trade deal. He predicted a similar outcome this time, saying: "If we're going to have a kerfuffle, so be it. But we know where it's going to end. It's going to end in a reasonable manner." https://www.reuters.com/business/davos/lutnick-expects-us-first-quarter-growth-above-5-warns-eu-against-retaliation-2026-01-20/

2026-01-20 21:26

BARCELONA, Jan 20 (Reuters) - A commuter train derailed on Tuesday after a containment wall fell on the track due to heavy rain near the Spanish city of Barcelona, killing the driver and seriously injuring four passengers, a fire brigade official said. The accident occurred just two days after a high-speed train collision and derailment near Adamuz in the southern Córdoba province that killed 42 people. Claudi Gallardo, inspector at the Catalonia regional fire department, said in televised comments from the site of the crash that 37 people had been injured, four of them seriously, and the driver had died. He said all passengers had been removed from the train. Twenty ambulances were dispatched to the site in Gelida on the outskirts of Barcelona along with 38 firefighter units, emergency services authorities said. The suburban train derailment occurred in an area long plagued by underfunded rail services and frequent incidents. In a separate incident on Tuesday night, traffic between Blanes and Maçanet-Massanes south of the city of Girona - also part of the Barcelona commuter rail network - was interrupted "due to a train axle coming off the track", Spanish rail operator Adif said in a statement on X. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/MJU7FZXBFBJYHE7237MK3OYSYU-2026-01-20/