2025-11-24 05:34
MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Reserve Bank of India stepped in aggressively on Monday to slow the downward pressure on the rupee that had built up after the local currency slipped past a key level on Friday and brought the psychological 90-mark into focus. The rupee was last trading at 89.16 per U.S. dollar, up 0.35% on the day. Sign up here. Before the 9 a.m. IST open, the interbank order-matching system had pointed to a drop past 89.50 to a new all-time low. However, that changed once the RBI stepped in. The central bank likely sold dollars on the order-matching platform and in the non-deliverable forward market, helping lift sentiment. On the back of that, the rupee opened at 89.15. The Indian currency had broken past 88.80 on Friday, a level bankers say the RBI had held for weeks, setting off a wave of pressure expected to carry through this week. Following Friday's slump, conversations turned to the risk of a swift push toward the 90 level, bankers said. The central bank's aggressive dollar sales on Monday were widely seen an effort to stop the rupee's move before it picked up pace. A senior treasury official at a private sector bank said the backdrop was "very heavy" for the rupee currently, noting that there was no catalyst yet to settle sentiment around the currency. The lack of progress on a U.S.-India trade agreement has further weighed on sentiment, traders said, depriving the market of a policy boost that could have helped offset India's widening trade deficit and the subdued pace of portfolio inflows. HDFC Bank echoed the cautious tone, saying any lift from a potential U.S.-India trade announcement could prove short-lived Meanwhile, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra on Thursday attributed , opens new tab the rupee's recent weakness to higher dollar demand, which he said could abate if India and the U.S. agree a trade deal. India's foreign reserves offer "ample protection" for the currency, he added. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-likely-intervenes-prop-up-rupee-before-local-market-open-2025-11-24/
2025-11-24 05:31
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rae Wee It's been a slow start to the week in Asia with Japanese markets closed for a holiday on Monday, but currency traders are watching with bated breath for any signs of official yen buying from Tokyo to stem its slide. Sign up here. The trading week will be interrupted by the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday, followed by Black Friday which will see shortened hours, opening a possible window for authorities to step in. Past interventions haven taken place during periods of low liquidity, allowing the authorities to move prices more sharply, or, as analysts put it, get the most "bang for their buck". In such cases, the Ministry of Finance decides when to step in and the Bank of Japan acts as its agent. The yen fell slightly on Monday in line with the broader market, and last stood at 156.62 per dollar. It remained pinned near last week's 10-month trough of 157.90, though the yen appears to have found a floor after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama ramped up verbal warnings of official yen buying on Friday. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television programme on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. Elsewhere, stocks found much-needed reprieve after last week's beating, helped by comments from influential Federal Reserve policymaker John Williams who said on Friday that interest rates can fall "in the near term". That sent traders ramping up bets of further easing next month, with Fed funds futures now pointing to a 57% chance of a 25-basis-point cut. Still, with global equity markets in the midst of a grim month, attention will turn in the week ahead to holiday shopping trends and U.S. retail sales for signs of strength in consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity. Over in Europe, focus will be on Britain's upcoming budget announcement, with Finance Minister Rachel Reeves seeking to reassure investors that the government can be trusted to be fiscally prudent while appeasing voters by honouring pre-election promises not to raise taxes on working people. Recent selling in bonds, sterling and bank shares shows markets on edge. The budget wait is almost over but UK market volatility is likely not. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - German Ifo business sentiment (November) - France: Reopening of 3-month, 6-month and 11-month government debt auctions - Germany: Reopening of 7-month government debt auction https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-24/
2025-11-24 05:05
Fed's Waller says December cut appropriate Fed's Daly also says she supports easing next month US rate cut odds at 80% for December meeting Yen intervention possible in holiday-thinned week NEW YORK, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar dipped on Monday, as investors weighed dovish remarks from Federal Reserve officials that boosted expectations for a rate cut next month and limited the greenback's upside against major currencies. The U.S. currency, however, rose against the yen, as investors remained on the lookout for signs of official buying from Tokyo to stem the slide in the Japanese currency. Sign up here. Volume was thinner than normal due to a holiday in Japan and a holiday-thinned week in the U.S. with the upcoming Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday. In afternoon trading, the euro rose 0.1% against the dollar to $1.1526, which put the dollar index down 0.1% at 100.15 . Against the Swiss franc, the dollar slid 0.1% to 0.8079 franc . The dollar slightly extended its fall after Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Monday that available data showed the U.S. job market remains weak enough to warrant another quarter-point rate cut at the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 policy meeting. His remarks followed those of New York Fed President John Williams on Friday who said that the U.S. central bank can still cut interest rates "in the near term" without putting its inflation goal at risk. Following their comments, Fed fund futures have increased the chances of an interest rate cut of a quarter-point next month to 80%, from 30% before their remarks, according to the CME's FedWatch tool. Several regional Fed governors, however, argued for delaying further easing until there is clear evidence that inflation is on track to fall to the Fed's 2% target from a still-elevated level. "There's a bifurcation within the Fed right now -- those focusing on backward-looking data versus those that are forward-looking," said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey. "Certainly, interest rate fundamentals move currencies." He noted, though, that there were times that the dollar has not moved in line with expectations -- when the Fed is cutting rates, the dollar should be falling. Markets are also gearing up for potential catalysts, including the release of U.S. retail sales and producer prices data due later in the week. YEN WOES, STERLING FLAT The yen fell against the dollar, which rose 0.2% to 156.755 yen, just shy of its 10-month high hit last week of 157.90. . Japan's currency has been sliding on a combination of looser fiscal policies and some of the lowest interest rates in the world, prompting traders to ask whether Japanese authorities might step in to stop their currency weakening further. The yen, however, managed to gain some ground last Friday, bouncing from 10-month lows after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama stepped up verbal intervention warnings to stem the currency's decline. Traders see a risk of intervention somewhere between 158 and 162 yen per dollar, with Thanksgiving-thinned trade on Thursday a possible window for authorities to step in. Japan can actively intervene in the currency market to mitigate the negative economic impact of a weak yen, Takuji Aida, a private-sector member of a key government panel, said in a television program on public broadcaster NHK on Sunday. "I think if Japan wanted to intervene, this would have been a good day to do it and would have caught the market by surprise with Japan on holiday," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global in New York. "The fact that they did not intervene today suggested that the bar is still high for intervention." In other currency pairs, sterling was marginally higher at $1.3108 against the dollar ahead of Wednesday's budget announcement. Finance minister Rachel Reeves is seeking a balance between spending to support faltering growth and demonstrating to investors that Britain can meet its fiscal targets. Cryptocurrency markets, meanwhile, steadied over the weekend. Bitcoin rose 0.6% to $88,495.19 , lifted by more Fed officials' easing remarks on Monday. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly reiterated her view that she supports a December rate cut, noting that she's not confident that the central bank can get ahead of a weak labor market. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-steady-thanksgiving-looms-yen-test-2025-11-24/
2025-11-24 04:56
MUMBAI, Nov 24 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee posted its biggest one-day gain in a month on Monday as central bank intervention helped it rebound from near its all-time low, even as traders expect the currency to tilt more towards depreciation in the near-term. The rupee ended at 89.23 against the U.S. dollar, up 0.3% from its close at 89.48 in the previous session. The currency has declined more than 4% so far in 2025 and hit an all-time low of 89.49 on Friday. Sign up here. While the central bank's presence blunted the immediate pressure on the currency, market participants anticipate a continuing downward bias for the rupee in the absence of a breakthrough in U.S.-India trade negotiations. The Reserve Bank of India likely intervened before the local spot market opened on Monday, and intermittently thereafter, helping the currency hold above its all-time low, traders said. "RBI may have thought it more prudent to conserve ammunition and intervene at higher levels in USD/INR instead of going all in at 88.80 itself," FX advisory firm IFA Global said in a note. The firm holds a mildly bearish outlook on the currency and expects it to hover in a 88-89.50 range over the next 6 weeks. The wait for a trade deal with the U.S. in the meantime has hurt trade and portfolio flows into India, exerting pressure on the currency even as the domestic economy remains resilient. India's GDP growth data for the July-September quarter is due on Friday. Elsewhere, the dollar index was down modestly at 100.1 while Asian currencies traded mixed. Currencies had a muted reaction to a bounce-back in wagers on a rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve next month and to peace plans related to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. "We think the combination of promising Ukraine peace talks and the Beige Book poses downside risks to the dollar this week," analysts at ING said in a note. The Fed's Beige Book contains a summary of business and labour conditions across the U.S. and will be in focus for cues on the central bank's interest rate path. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-likely-feel-after-effects-breakdown-asia-peers-compound-pressure-2025-11-24/
2025-11-24 03:14
Heavy flooding kills 8 in Thailand Malaysia issues red alert for heavy rain, 15,000 in shelters Vietnam puts initial damage at $493 million after floods, landslides Thailand's Hat Yai sees most single-day rainfall in 300 years BANGKOK/KUALA LUMPUR, Nov 24 (Reuters) - Flooding from days of intense rain has killed at least eight people in southern Thailand and forced thousands into evacuation centres in neighbouring Malaysia, officials said on Monday, as authorities ramped up efforts to provide shelter and aid. Floodwater waist-high in some areas has impacted 10 provinces in southern Thailand and eight states in Malaysia, regions spanning hundreds of kilometres that were last year also hard hit by flooding from a seasonal monsoon that killed at least 12 people. Sign up here. Thailand's southern trading hub Hat Yai on Friday suffered its heaviest single-day rainfall in more than 300 years, according to the irrigation department, with weekend television footage showing people wading through brown water in the teeming rain in commercial areas where shops and parked motorcycles were engulfed by water. Some residents were seen pulling children along in plastic boxes turned into makeshift boats, while in the city's outskirts, parked trucks and buses formed long lines along the few dry roads available as other vehicles inched slowly through water. HUNDREDS OF VEHICLES AND BOATS DEPLOYED The eight deaths in Thailand were caused mainly by electrocution and other flood-related accidents, according to authorities. Thailand has mobilised hundreds of boats and high-clearance vehicles to deliver aid, the disaster agency said, with at least 700,000 households impacted since last week. Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul ordered more water pumping machines to be deployed and said assistance must be adequate, comprehensive, and timely, according to a government statement. In neighbouring Malaysia, more than 15,000 people were in shelters, according to Social Welfare Department data, among 90 evacuation centres set up. No deaths have been reported so far in Malaysia. Its Deputy Prime Minister Ahmad Zahid Hamidi said civil defence teams were on standby and more than 90 land and water assets mobilised, including lorries, four-wheeled-drive vehicles and water-rescue equipment. "I pray and hope that this incident will not cause extensive damage and that all victims remain strong and patient," he said in an X post. CENTRAL VIETNAM FLOODS EASE AFTER KILLING 91 Water levels have started to recede in central Vietnam after weeklong flooding and landslides that killed 91 people and caused infrastructure damage that left 1.1 million households and businesses without power, the government said on Monday. Initial property damage was estimated at 13 trillion dong ($493 million), it said, adding that it has disbursed cash aid and 4,000 tons of rice to flood victims. More than 200,000 houses, 200,000 hectares (494,211 acres) of crops, and 1,157 hectares of fish farms were inundated in Vietnam. The floods submerged several coffee farms in the central highlands - an area highly prone to storms and flooding - hampering the harvest in the region. ($1 = 26,369.0000 dong) https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/malaysian-floods-affect-11000-people-across-seven-states-2025-11-24/
2025-11-24 01:59
China's crude imports from Indonesia far exceed Indonesia's total oil exports this year Iranian barrels are being relabelled as Indonesian oil - traders and analyst Ship-to-ship transfers continue in Malaysian waters - analyst Nov 21 (Reuters) - China is importing unusually large quantities of crude oil from Indonesia, a trend traders say is a way to mask shipments of sanctioned Iranian crude trans-shipped in waters off Malaysia amid greater scrutiny of cargoes originating from Malaysia. Declaring Iranian oil as Malaysian has long been a tactic of traders selling to China, the largest buyer of the U.S.-sanctioned crude, market participants say. Sign up here. China has officially not imported Iranian crude since 2022, but its customs data regularly shows more Malaysia-sourced oil than the Southeast Asian country actually produces. China's crude imports from Indonesia have risen from less than 100,000 metric tons in 2024 to 9.81 million tons, or 235,570 barrels per day, for the year through October, according to Chinese customs data on Thursday. However, Indonesian customs data shows just 1.7 million tons of crude exported between January and September. Of that, it says that only about 25,000 tons went to China. Meanwhile, China's imports from Malaysia, the largest trans-shipment hub for Iranian oil, have almost halved since July from this year's peak in March at 8.5 million tons. Malaysia's Marine Department and the Chinese and Indonesian customs authorities did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. Indonesia has emerged as an alternate declared origin this year due to greater scrutiny from banks about oil labelled as Malaysian, according to two traders with knowledge of the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. "Some banks are rejecting documentations showing Malaysia as origin," said one of the traders. "With US‑Indonesia deals for energy supply and plans for 17 modular refineries in Indonesia, Indonesia may become a softer source than Malaysia. However, this sourcing can be changed on paper frequently if monitoring and enforcement is further increased," said Pankaj Srivastava, a senior vice president at Rystad Energy. The shift is also being driven by Malaysia announcing in July that it would more tightly enforce rules targeting illegal ship-to-ship (STS) transfers, where oil is shifted between tankers at sea to obscure its origin, according to consultancy Energy Aspects and a third trader. However despite the shift in labelling, Iranian oil was still being transferred between ships off the coast of Malaysia, traders said. "Most of the STS transfers of Iranian crude destined for China still take place off the coast of Malaysia," said Jianan Sun, analyst with Energy Aspects. According to analytics group Kpler, in the first ten months of this year, China imported more than 57 million tons, or 1.37 million bpd, of Iranian-origin or suspected Iranian-origin crude, with over 51 million tons moved via STS. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/surging-chinese-imports-indonesia-oil-point-to-rebranded-iranian-crude-traders-2025-11-21/
