2025-05-26 02:11

MUMBAI, May 26 (Reuters) - Traders will gauge likelihood of the Indian rupee extending its rally this week as reignited worries about U.S. trade tariffs, alongside lingering fiscal concerns hurt the dollar, while bond yields may move up after the central bank's surplus transfer. The rupee closed at 85.2125 on Friday, posting its biggest single-day gain in more than two years, and strengthened 0.3% week-on-week. Sign up here. Alongside a rally in Asian currencies, heavy dollar sales from foreign banks and cutting of speculative bearish bets against the rupee contributed to the rally, traders said. The dollar, meanwhile, weakened against most currencies on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump recommended 50% tariffs on European Union imports from June 1 and said he was considering a 25% tariff on smartphones made outside the U.S. The fresh tariff threats roiled global markets and deepened the dollar's losses which ended down by about 1.8% on the week against major peers. "Escalation – de-escalation and now re-escalation of President Trump's war on trade is going to be the theme that drives markets next week," ING Bank said in a note. Back home, India's January-March growth data, due on Friday, will be in focus. Year-on-year gross domestic product growth is expected to come in at 6.7%, per a Reuters poll. In the near-term, the rupee is expected to face resistance to further gains near 84.94, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities. U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data for April, due on Friday as well, may offer cues on the impact Trump's tariff policies are having on prices in the world's largest economy. India's 10-year benchmark 6.33% 2035 bond yield eased marginally last week, and ended at 6.2107% on Friday. Traders anticipate the yield to move in the range of 6.18%-6.26% this week. The yield on the 6.79% government bond maturing in 2034 ended at 6.2520% on Friday. The Reserve Bank of India's board approved the transfer of 2.69 trillion rupees ($31.58 billion) as surplus for the fiscal year ended March, up from 2.11 trillion rupees last year. Analysts' estimates, however, had ranged between 2.7 trillion rupees and 4 trillion rupees. In fiscal year 2024, the RBI had transferred a surplus of 2.11 trillion rupees. "We could see some upward move in the immediate aftermath on Monday, but major focus would shift on growth data," a trader with a private bank said. The RBI is largely expected to cut its key interest rate for a third consecutive time to 5.75% at its monetary policy meeting on June 6. "With growth below potential and inflation durably aligned to target, we expect policy rates to be lowered into the accommodative zone. We expect an additional 100 bps of rate cuts to a terminal policy rate of 5.00% by end-2025, more than consensus," Nomura economists said. KEY EVENTS: India ** April industrial output - May 28, Wednesday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 2%) ** April fiscal deficit - May 30, Friday (3:30 p.m. IST) ** January-March GDP growth - May 30, Friday (4:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll - 6.7%) U.S. ** April durable goods - May 27, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** May consumer confidence - May 27, Tuesday (7:30 p.m. IST) ** January-March GDP second estimate - May 29, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll -0.3%) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to May 19 - May 29, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** April personal consumption expenditure index, core PCE index - May 30, Friday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** May U Mich sentiment final - May 30, Friday (7:30 p.m. IST) ($1 = 85.1720 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/traders-look-out-rupee-extending-rally-bond-yields-may-see-uptick-2025-05-26/

2025-05-26 00:49

OPEC+ meeting moved to May 31, may decide on July output Market hesitancy due to unclear OPEC+ output plans Trump's EU trade talk extension supports crude prices CALGARY, May 26 (Reuters) - Oil prices held steady on Monday with news that eight OPEC+ countries, who had pledged extra voluntary oil output cuts, will now meet on May 31, a day earlier than previously planned. Brent crude futures settled down four cents at $64.74 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude last traded at $61.53 a barrel, unchanged from the prior day's session. Sign up here. Trading volumes were light due to the U.S. Memorial Day holiday. Three OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Monday about the change of meeting date. The meeting will likely decide on July output, which sources have previously told Reuters will entail another 411,000 barrels per day of production . The meeting is separate from the online ministerial meeting of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, led by Russia, set for May 28. Russian Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on Monday that OPEC+ has not yet discussed hiking output by another 411,000 barrels per day ahead of its meeting, RIA news agency reported. "At this stage, it feels like the market is exhausted with this," said Rory Johnston, a Toronto-based analyst and founder of the Commodity Context newsletter, adding investors and traders are still anticipating the arrival of additional OPEC barrels but are disinclined to react significantly until something material emerges. OPEC oil output edged lower in April despite a scheduled output hike taking effect, Johnston pointed out, which added to the overall market hesitancy. "It feels like (OPEC) really wants to have headlines every couple of days," Johnston said. "But the market reaction to them at this point is waiting for anything (tangible) to actually show up." Both Brent and WTI had traded higher earlier in Monday's session after U.S. President Donald Trump said he agreed to extend a deadline for trade talks with the European Union until July 9, marking another temporary trade policy reprieve. The extension eased concerns that U.S. tariffs on the EU could hit fuel demand. Global markets climbed on Monday and the euro rallied. "Trump's pivot, by postponing higher tariffs for the EU, and his comments on possible sanctions on Russia are moderately supporting crude prices today," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Trump separately said in a social media post that Russian President Vladimir Putin had "gone absolutely CRAZY" by unleashing the largest aerial attack of the war on Ukraine and that he was weighing new sanctions on Moscow. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-after-trump-extends-eu-trade-talks-deadline-july-2025-05-26/

2025-05-26 00:05

Macron meets Vietnam's leaders in first visit to Hanoi Airline VietJet agrees to buy 20 more Airbus planes Deals cover defence, satellites, nuclear energy, vaccines Visit comes amid trade tension with Washington HANOI, May 26 (Reuters) - France and Vietnam signed deals on Monday on Airbus planes, defence and other pacts, worth over $10 billion as President Emmanuel Macron visited Hanoi seeking to boost France's influence in its former colony amid risks of high U.S. tariffs. Macron's first formal visit to Vietnam, the first by a French president in nearly a decade, follows U.S. President Donald Trump's threats on Friday to impose 50% duties on European Union goods from June 1, fuelling tensions with the 27-country bloc, though he later delayed that deadline to July 9. Sign up here. Export-dependent Vietnam, under pressure from Washington to buy more American goods, has made pledges in trade talks to try to avert 46% tariffs that could impair its growth, fanning European concerns about deals at the region's expense. Macron said France signed 9 billion euros ($10.25 billion) worth of contracts in Vietnam during his visit. Deals covered the purchase of 20 Airbus planes, cooperation on nuclear energy, defence, rail and maritime transport, Airbus earth-observation satellites and Sanofi vaccines (SASY.PA) , opens new tab, a list of documents seen by Reuters showed, confirming an earlier report. In total 14 deals were signed, which would be short of the dozens that the French presidential palace had said were in preparation before the visit, but more agreements were expected to be announced on Tuesday, an official said. In statements to the press with no questions allowed, Macron reiterated France's support of freedom of navigation, an issue dear to Vietnam as it often clashes with Beijing over contested boundaries in the South China Sea. Macron added the partnership with Vietnam "entails a reinforced defence cooperation", citing the signing of multiple projects on defence and space. Vietnam's President Luong Cuong said the defence partnership involved "sharing of information on strategic matters" and stronger cooperation in the defence industry, cybersecurity and anti-terrorism. France ruled the Southeast Asian country for about 70 years until it was forced out in 1954 after a major defeat at Dien Bien Phu in northern Vietnam. Ties have improved in recent decades, being upgraded last year to Vietnam's highest level. On his trip, the first leg of a Southeast Asian tour that includes Indonesia and Singapore, Macron met Vietnamese leaders and will visit a university in Hanoi on Tuesday, before flying to Jakarta, the Indonesian capital. On arriving in Hanoi on Sunday night, Macron's wife Brigitte appeared to push him in the face when they were still on the plane, a video showed, in an incident that the Elysee played down as "a moment of closeness". PLANES, SATELLITES The deal with European planemaker Airbus (AIR.PA) , opens new tab for Vietnam's low-cost airline VietJet (VJC.HM) , opens new tab to buy 20 A330neo wide-body aircraft follows last year's agreement for 20 of the jets. The companies did not announce the value of the deal or delivery schedule for the planes. The signing followed urging by European officials in recent weeks for Vietnam to be careful in concessions made to the White House, two officials based in Vietnam with knowledge of the discussions had told Reuters, referring to concerns on Airbus. Airbus is the main supplier of jets to Vietnam, but with an economy heavily dependent on U.S. exports, Vietnamese officials have signalled the possible purchase of at least 250 Boeing (BA.N) , opens new tab planes by flag carrier Vietnam Airlines (HVN.HM) , opens new tab and rival VietJet in moves meant to help cut the country's huge trade surplus with the United States and possibly appease Trump. Airbus Defence and Space signed a separate declaration of intent with Vietnam on satellites. The company has long been in talks with Hanoi for the replacement of Vietnam's earth-observation satellite, built by Airbus' predecessor EADS and launched in 2013. The new pact involves "exploring a future programme", Airbus said in a statement. During the visit, French transport company CMA CGM said it signed a deal with Saigon Newport to build a deepwater container terminal in north Vietnam by 2028 for a joint investment worth $600 million. https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/france-vietnam-set-sign-dozens-deals-macron-visits-hanoi-2025-05-26/

2025-05-26 00:04

Euro touches highest since late April Safe-haven currencies retreat as sentiment improves Dollar assets also pressured by Trump's sweeping tax bill TOKYO/LONDON, May 26 (Reuters) - The euro hit a one-month high against the U.S. dollar on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trumpbacked down from threatened 50% duties on European Union shipments from June 1, as the bloc asked for time to "reach a good deal". The dollar continued its decline against a broad spectrum of other currencies as Trump's policy reversals, as well as the sweeping spending and tax-cut bill, turned investors away from U.S. assets. Sign up here. "The 'Sell America' theme, which obviously was the dominant theme back in April, is back on show," said Ray Attrill, head of FX research at National Australia Bank. "Markets have probably taken the view - and probably rightly so - that where we land eventually on a tariff situation between the U.S. and the EU is not going to be at 50%, but how we get there is frankly anybody's guess at the moment." The euro climbed as much as 0.55% to reach $1.1418 for the first time since April 29. It was last up 0.17% on the day at $1.1375, bringing gains for the year so far to 10%. Much of the dollar's decline in the past couple of months has been to the benefit of the euro, as investors have targeted a range of non-U.S. markets. The single currency could become a viable alternative to the dollar, the world's reserve currency, if governments can strengthen the bloc's financial and security architecture, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Monday. "The ongoing changes create the opening for a 'global euro moment,'" Lagarde said at a lecture in Berlin. "The euro will not gain influence by default - it will have to earn it." Sterling rose by 0.39% to its highest level since February 2022 and was last up 0.15% at $1.356. The safe-haven yen and Swiss franc eased against a backdrop of improved investor sentiment. The dollar was last up 0.2% against the yen at 142.84 , and was steady against the Swiss franc at 0.821 francs. Trump announced his decision to delay EU tariffs until July 9 on Sunday after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, who asked for more time to reach an agreement. July 9 is the end of the 90-day pause on Trump's April 2 "Liberation Day" levies on the EU and many other trade partners. The announcement, although encouraging for investors, is a stark reminder of how suddenly U.S. trade policy can turn. "Following Trump's latest U-turn, we will, of course, have to wait and see what happens next. It is possible that a deal with the European Union will be reached by 9 July," Commerzbank currency strategist Michael Pfister said. "However, it is questionable what has changed in terms of the fundamental problems following a phone call. One thing should be clear after Friday's announcement: the brief respite from tariffs that we enjoyed was only temporary." In a possible nod to fiscal worries among investors, Trump also said on Sunday that the spending and tax-cut bill is likely to see "significant" changes in the Senate. The House of Representatives' version of the bill is calculated to add about $3.8 trillion to the federal government's $36.2 trillion in debt over the next decade, according to the Congressional Budget Office. "What seems clear from the reconciliation bill...is that Trump and (Treasury Secretary Scott) Bessent have shifted tactics, swivelling hard from fiscal conservatism and reduced spending to an outright pro-growth policy stance," said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone. "It is fast becoming a consensus view that the USD is on the path to a multi-year decline." https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/euro-rises-dollar-recovers-trump-gives-more-time-eu-deal-2025-05-26/

2025-05-25 16:33

PARIS, May 25 (Reuters) - French President Emmanuel Macron said on Sunday that he hoped to strike deals for France in areas such as defence, energy and tech innovation, as he arrived in Vietnam for the start of a roughly week-long trip in Asia. Macron arrived in Hanoi on Sunday, marking the first trip to Vietnam by a French president in nearly a decade. Sign up here. After Vietnam, Macron will then go to Indonesia and finish up in Singapore, where he will speak at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia's top defence conference. Macron's visit comes as France and the European Union aim to strengthen their commercial ties in Asia to offset uncertainty over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff measures. "I am coming here to strengthen our ties in key areas - defence, innovation, the energy transition, and cultural exchanges," wrote Macron on X. Macron will present France and Europe as defenders of international cooperation and rules-based trade, at a time when other world powers such as the U.S. under Trump and China use more "coercive" or "predatory" methods. "France is a reliable partner, one which believes in dialogue and co-operation," Macron also wrote on X on Sunday. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/french-president-macron-hopes-defence-energy-tech-deals-he-starts-asia-trip-2025-05-25/

2025-05-25 15:57

CAIRO, May 25 (Reuters) - Egypt is working to integrate the country into a railway network connecting Asia and Europe, but a long-planned bridge that would link Saudi Arabia to Egypt's Sinai Peninsula has yet to be finalised, transport minister Kamel al-Wazir said on Sunday. Egypt has been expanding its railways along seven separate axes, he said. These include three high-speed lines that would connect Sokhna Port on the Red Sea with the Mediterranean and Alexandria in the north and with Aswan in the far south. Sign up here. Israel and Iraq have likewise been spending billions of dollars on rail lines with an eye towards tapping the east-west trade. All the plans involve loading cargo onto ships for part of the journey. "We have now completed the planning for the bridge between Egypt and Saudi Arabia and are ready to implement it at any time - whether a bridge or a tunnel," Wazir told Reuters on the sideline of an economic conference organised by the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt. "But the (current) solution for connecting Egypt with Saudi Arabia and Jordan is through the Arab Bridge Maritime Co. which currently has 13 vessels that can take cargo between Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt." Saudi Arabia's King Salman announced during a visit to Egypt in 2016 the idea for a bridge, which would complement a mega-city and business zone called NEOM the Saudis were building across the Straits of Tiran. Rail cargo would be sent to a series of ports on the Mediterranean that Egypt has been upgrading over the last decade. The high-speed train line connecting to Egypt's south would skirt the edge of the pyramids area in the desert, while simultaneously serving the site, he added. A proposed route through the site of Abydos, where Egypt's first pharaohs were buried 5,000 years ago, has been diverted to pass over the plateau above and away from the antiquities site. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/egypt-working-integrate-railways-into-asia-europe-trade-2025-05-25/