2025-05-19 00:17

Dollar dips to more than one-week low vs yen, euro, Swiss franc US trade tensions simmer, FT reports thaw with EU Bessent warns nations not negotiating 'in good faith' UK-EU defense and trade ties 'reset' NEW YORK, May 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar declined broadly on Monday, hitting a more than one-week low against the safe-haven yen, Swiss franc and euro, pressured by a surprise downgrade of the U.S. government's credit rating late on Friday, even as trade tensions also weighed. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in television interviews on Sunday that President Donald Trump will impose tariffs at the rate he threatened last month on trading partners that do not negotiate in "good faith". Sign up here. But Moody's action to cut the United States' top sovereign credit rating by one notch on Friday started the ball rolling downward for the dollar. Moody's cited concerns about the U.S. government's growing $36 trillion debt pile. The move followed similar actions by Fitch in the summer of 2023, and S&P's downgrade in 2011. The news saw the dollar lose ground against its major rivals following four straight winning weeks when it was boosted by rising optimism for U.S. trade deals and a thaw in relations with China that eased fears of a global recession. But from midmorning trading to the afternoon session, dollar selling lost steam. "To me, this is not really a game changer: Moody's did not really tell us what we already did not know. We all know what's going in Washington and the large budget deficit that they are projecting," said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist, at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. "But what happened was Asia and Europe took the dollar down. But North Americans like myself think 'what's the big deal'? So some took advantage of that, bought the weaker dollar." The greenback fell to 144.665 yen , its lowest since May 8 on Monday, and was last down 0.5% at 144.98. It also fell to its weakest level in more than a week against the Swiss currency at 0.8317 franc. The euro, meanwhile, rose 0.6% against the dollar to $1.1232 , after earlier rising to its highest since May 9. Sterling also gained versus the greenback, adding 0.6% to $1.3355. Earlier in the session the pound climbed to its highest since April 30, as Britain agreed to the most significant reset of defense and trade ties with the European Union since Brexit on Monday. Despite the dollar's losses on Monday, New York Federal Reserve President John Williams said that he has seen no large-scale move away from U.S. assets, and noted that the greenback remains the world's reserve currency. China on Monday called on the U.S. to take responsible policy measures to maintain the stability of the international financial and economic system and safeguard the interests of investors. That followed Bessent's stern warning on Sunday to countries not negotiating in good faith with the U.S. on trade. However, a Financial Times report that the U.S. had begun serious trade talks with the EU brightened the mood a bit. Those talks broke a long deadlock, offering some hope for additional deals after Washington inked a framework agreement with Britain earlier this month. Trump has previously said he has potential deals with India, Japan and South Korea as well, although talks with Tokyo seem to be stumbling over car tariffs. Elsewhere, Trump cleared a hurdle towards passing a sweeping tax cut bill that would add an estimated $3 trillion to $5 trillion to the nation's debt over the next decade, after winning approval from a key congressional committee. In other currencies, Australia's dollar was up 0.66% at US$0.6444 following three days of declines ahead of Tuesday's Reserve Bank of Australia policy announcement, with a quarter-point cut widely expected. The New Zealand dollar also rose, up 0.5% at US$0.5911 . https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-edges-lower-after-us-credit-downgrade-aussie-pares-losses-before-rba-2025-05-19/

2025-05-18 21:02

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 18 (Reuters) - Speculators sold significantly more Chicago corn than expected last week, establishing their first bearish stance on the yellow grain in nearly seven months. However, funds’ massive CBOT soybean meal short combined with their building bullish soybean oil bets left them with record oil optimism in relation to meal. Sign up here. CBOT July corn hit seven-month lows in the week ended May 13, easing nearly 3%. U.S. corn planting has been moving along without a hitch, and funds were expected to have gotten short heading into last Monday’s reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. They certainly emerged as bears from that data release, which placed 2025-26 U.S. corn supplies well below analysts' expectations but up 27% from the current year. In the week ended May 13, money managers were net sellers of nearly 99,000 CBOT corn futures and options contracts, resulting in a net short of 84,976 contracts. That is their first net short in corn and their most bearish view since October. That is a stark contrast from early February, when funds’ net long hit a three-year high of 364,217 contracts. They have been net sellers of corn in 12 of the 14 weeks since, largely driven by U.S. trade policy jitters and the anticipation of a record U.S. corn crop. July corn futures remained steady at the end of last week, but December futures on Friday sank to five-month lows. Money managers extended their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options through May 13 to 126,895 contracts, nearly their most bearish wheat view in more than seven years. Most-active CBOT wheat futures on May 13 sank to their lowest levels since August 2020 as USDA pegged global wheat supplies to rise slightly into 2026 from the current levels. July wheat futures rose 1.5% over the last three sessions as U.S. wheat exporters made some of their largest sales in years, but traders have also noted improving U.S. crop conditions. SOYBEANS AND PRODUCTS In the week ended May 13, money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options to a six-month high of 67,432 contracts, up nearly 11,000 on the week. Most-active futures rose 6.5% on the week before reaching 18-month highs on Wednesday, driven by U.S. lawmakers’ proposed extension of the clean fuel tax credit (45Z) through 2031. However, futures plunged 6.5% over the last two sessions including a limit-down move on Thursday, when rumors circulated that next year’s target for U.S. renewable diesel volumes could be much lower than previously expected. In the background, trade disparities in soybean product trade had been on the rise. CBOT oilshare, which measures soyoil’s share of value in the soy products, recently hit the highest levels since late 2022. But speculators’ bullishness in the oilshare last week reached an all-time high, possibly suggesting one or both of their product positions have been too extreme. In the week ended May 13, money managers slightly trimmed their 100,000-contract-plus net short in CBOT soybean meal futures and options from the previous week’s record high. But that was offset by funds’ net buying in soyoil, boosting their net long in the CBOT oilshare to 170,177 contracts. The pre-2025 high was 144,631. CBOT soybeans both in the week ended May 13 and in the following sessions moved directionally with soybean oil. Money managers extended their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to a three-month high of 38,407 contracts through May 13, up more than 16,000 on the week. Traders in the week ahead will be watching U.S. weather forecasts for the early establishment of the corn and soybean crops. But they also must keep a close eye on any potential developments out of Washington, especially pertaining to trade policy or biofuel mandates, both of which have recently jolted futures markets. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/funds-get-short-cbot-corn-ink-record-bullish-oilshare-bets-braun-2025-05-18/

2025-05-18 19:34

Estonia says Russia detained Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday Vessel had left an Estonian Baltic Sea port bound for Rotterdam Shipping data shows vessel’s operator was Athens-based Aegean Ship Management TALLINN, May 18 (Reuters) - Russia detained a Greek-owned oil tanker on Sunday after it left an Estonian Baltic Sea port, the Estonian Foreign Ministry said, adding it had alerted NATO allies to the incident. The Liberia-flagged ship Green Admire was leaving Sillamae port using a designated navigation channel that crosses Russian territorial waters, the ministry said in a statement. Sign up here. "This is definitely connected to the fact that we have started to harass Russia's shadow fleet", Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna told Estonian broadcaster ERR. He also said he had informed allies of the event. Western sanctions on Russia since its invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have led to a vast "shadow fleet" of tankers crossing the sea to help Moscow keep its crude oil exports flowing. Only last week, Estonia said that Moscow had briefly sent a fighter jet over the Baltic Sea during Estonia's attempt to stop a Russian-bound oil tanker. The West has imposed a series of sanctions against tankers that transport Russian oil, resulting in transport by vessels typically with opaque ownership structures and without top-tier Western insurance or safety certification cover. Baltic Sea nations are also on high alert after a string of power cable, telecom link and gas pipeline outages. The Green Admire had departed Sillamae port on Saturday at 18:40 GMT, and on Sunday afternoon was at one point anchored near Russia's Hogland Island, according to Marine Traffic, a website that tracks vessels. A Greek government official said the ship had manoeuvred in Russian waters to avoid shallows and that the Russians had intercepted it and moved it to a safe place to impose a fine. Shipping data showed the vessel’s operator was Athens-based Aegean Ship Management and one of its key insurers was listed as Norway-based Skuld. The companies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. The ship was bound for Rotterdam with a load of Estonia's shale oil, the Estonian Transport Administration said. The tanker with a maximum capacity of 700,000 barrels, was almost fully laden, LSEG ship tracking data showed. The navigation channel out of Sillamae through Russian territorial waters has been set up under an agreement between Estonia, Finland and Russia to avoid shallows in the Estonian waters, the administration said. Vessels sailing into and out of the port will now be guided through Estonian territorial waters, it added. NATO did not immediately comment on the incident. A Greek coast guard official said that, since the vessel was not Greek-flagged, the Greek state had no authority on it. However, a Greek government official said Greece was aware and was monitoring the case. The official said Athens had stated its availability to assist, though no request to do so had been submitted. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/estonia-says-russia-detained-tanker-baltic-sea-2025-05-18/

2025-05-18 16:42

Iran criticizes US stance on uranium enrichment Witkoff optimistic about upcoming negotiations Trump has said US getting close to Iran nuclear deal WASHINGTON, May 18 (Reuters) - Any deal between the United States and Iran must include an agreement not to enrich uranium, U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff said on Sunday, a comment that drew criticism from Tehran. While Witkoff was reiterating President Donald Trump's position about uranium enrichment, Iran's response was evidence that the two sides have a long way to go to reach any agreement over Iran's nuclear program. Sign up here. "We have one very, very clear red line, and that is enrichment. We cannot allow even 1% of an enrichment capability," Witkoff said during an interview aired on ABC's "This Week" program. Everything begins, from the Trump administration's standpoint, "with a deal that does not include enrichment. We cannot have that. Because enrichment enables weaponization. And we will not allow a bomb to get here," Witkoff said. The response from Tehran was swift. "Unrealistic expectations stop negotiations, enrichment in Iran is not something that can be stopped", Iran's semi-official Tasnim news agency cited Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, as saying on Sunday. "I think he is completely at a distance from the reality of the negotiations," Araqchi said of Witkoff, and added that enrichment will continue. Witkoff said he is optimistic about negotiations and thinks the parties will hold talks again in Europe this week. "We hope that it will lead to some real positivity," Witkoff said. Araqchi said the date and location of the next round of talks will be announced soon. Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, but on Friday said Iran needs to move quickly. Trump told reporters on Friday aboard Air Force One after departing the United Arab Emirates: "They have a proposal. More importantly, they know they have to move quickly or something bad - something bad's going to happen," according to an audio recording of the remarks. Araqchi said on social media that Tehran had not received a U.S. proposal. During his first term as president, Trump withdrew the United States from a 2015 deal between Iran and world powers that placed strict limits on Tehran's uranium enrichment activities in exchange for sanctions relief. Trump also reimposed sweeping U.S. sanctions. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/trump-envoy-witkoff-cites-us-red-line-with-iran-against-uranium-enrichment-2025-05-18/

2025-05-18 14:10

Millions of eggs destroyed in Brazil Several countries including China banned chicken imports from Brazil Sample from a duck found on a non-commercial farm being tested for bird flu MONTENEGRO, Brazil, May 18 (Reuters) - Officials and chicken farmers in Brazil have stepped up sanitary controls close to where the country's first case of avian influenza was found on a commercial farm, while racing to track the virus to stop its spread. Brazil is the world's largest chicken exporter. News on Friday of the first case of highly pathogenic avian influenza found on a commercial farm in Montenegro, in Rio Grande do Sul state, triggered trade bans for Brazilian chicken by China and the European Union, as well as fellow Latin American countries Mexico and Argentina, among others. Sign up here. Brazilian authorities at the state and federal level have scrambled to prevent bird flu from spreading. On Saturday, the government of Minas Gerais state said it destroyed 450 metric tons of eggs from Rio Grande do Sul. Eggs from the affected farm were traced to locations in Minas Gerais, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's agriculture ministry said, adding they would be destroyed. Some 1.7 million eggs have been destroyed in Rio Grande do Sul, according to the state's department of agriculture. "We don’t know what's going to happen, if there's going to be stagnation, if we're going to keep producing - we don't know anything," said Celso Zweibricker, 65, a chicken farmer in Montenegro. With 76,000 birds to protect, Zweibricker stepped up sanitary controls, denying access to visitors and insisting that chicken-feed deliverers could only enter the site with clean boots. "We don't want anyone to come in," Zweibricker said. The outbreak of highly infectious bird flu that started in 2022 has devastated production of chicken and eggs in the United States, leading to the culling of millions of poultry birds, and has spread to dairy farms across the U.S. On Saturday, teams from Vibra Foods, a Brazilian operation backed by Tyson Foods (TSN.N) , opens new tab which runs the farm where bird flu was detected, buried waste that had first been incinerated to prevent the spread of the virus. The virus killed around 15,000 birds and the farm culled an additional 2,000. Vibra Foods did not respond to requests for comment. Brazil's agriculture ministry and Rio Grande do Sul's department of agriculture created a task force in Montenegro to prevent the virus spreading, with officials visiting 524 properties within a 10-kilometer (6.2-mile) radius of the farm where the first case was found. Teams from the ministry and state department, with support from the military police, will set up a total of seven disinfection barriers close to the farm, washing passing vehicles with water and disinfectant, the department of agriculture in Rio Grande do Sul said. On Saturday, a sample taken from a duck on a non-commercial farm suspected of having bird flu was collected and sent for testing, Rosane Collares, director of animal health surveillance and defense for the Rio Grande do Sul's department of agriculture, told Reuters. "Our goal is to eliminate this outbreak and return to the previous condition as quickly as possible," Collares said. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/brazil-farmers-officials-step-up-controls-where-bird-flu-was-found-commercial-2025-05-18/

2025-05-18 11:36

May 18 (Reuters) - Donald Trump has said he will be speaking to the presidents of Russia and Ukraine on Monday about stopping the 'bloodbath' in Ukraine. What are the challenges the U.S. president faces in his drive for a peace deal and what could such a deal look like? SECURITY GUARANTEE Ukraine, which was subject to a full-scale invasion in 2022 and saw Russia annex Crimea in 2014, says it needs security guarantees from the major powers - primarily the United States. Sign up here. The problem, say sources involved in the discussions, is that any security guarantee that has teeth would lock the West into a potential future war with Russia - and any security deal without teeth would leave Ukraine exposed. Under draft proposals for a possible peace settlement seen by Reuters, diplomats spoke of a "robust security guarantee", including possibly an Article 5-like agreement. Article 5 of the NATO treaty commits allies to defend each other in the event of an attack, though Ukraine is not a member of the alliance. A failed 2022 deal proposed permanent neutrality for Ukraine in return for security guarantees from the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States, and other nations including Belarus, Canada, Germany, Israel, Poland and Turkey, according to a draft seen by Reuters. Russian negotiators reiterated their demand for neutrality for Ukraine in their first high-level talks since then, in Istanbul on May 16, a Ukrainian source said. The Kremlin said the contents of those talks should be private. Officials in Kyiv say agreeing to Ukrainian neutrality is a red line they will not cross. NATO AND NEUTRALITY Russia has repeatedly said that possible NATO membership for Kyiv was a cause of the war, is unacceptable and that Ukraine must be neutral - with no foreign bases. Zelenskiy has said it is not for Moscow to decide Ukraine's alliances. At the 2008 Bucharest summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would one day become members. Ukraine in 2019 amended its constitution, committing to the path of full membership of NATO and the European Union. U.S. envoy General Keith Kellogg has said NATO membership for Ukraine is "off the table". Trump has said past U.S. support for Ukraine's membership of NATO was a cause of the war. In 2022, Ukraine and Russia discussed permanent neutrality. Russia wanted limits on the Ukrainian military, according to a copy of a potential agreement reviewed by Reuters. Ukraine staunchly opposes the idea of curbs to the size and capabilities of its armed forces. Russia has said it has no objections to Ukraine seeking EU membership, though some members of the bloc could oppose Kyiv's bid. TERRITORY Moscow controls about a fifth of Ukraine and says the territory is now formally part of Russia, a position most countries do not accept. Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. Russian forces control almost all of Luhansk, and more than 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson regions, according to Russian estimates. Russia also controls a sliver of Kharkiv region. In Putin's most detailed public proposals for peace, outlined in June 2024, he said Ukraine would have to withdraw from the entirety of those regions - so even from areas not currently under Russian control. His negotiators restated those demands in the May 16 Istanbul talks, the Ukrainian source said. According to Alexander Kots, a war correspondent for Russia's Komsomolskaya Pravda newspaper, the negotiators also told their Ukrainian counterparts that Kyiv would need to drop all claims to the four regions and Crimea. Under a draft peace plan crafted by the Trump administration, the U.S. would de jure recognise Russian control of Crimea, and de facto recognise Russian control of Luhansk and parts of Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk and Kherson. Ukraine would regain territory in Kharkiv region, while the U.S. would control and administer Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, which is currently controlled by Russia. Kyiv says that legally recognising Russian sovereignty over occupied areas is out of the question and would violate Ukraine's constitution, but that territorial matters could be discussed at talks once a ceasefire is in place. "The major issues here are the regions, the nuclear plant, it's how the Ukrainians are able to use the Dnieper River and get out to the ocean," Trump envoy Steve Witkoff told Breitbart News in an interview published on May 12. SANCTIONS Russia wants Western sanctions lifted but is sceptical that they will be lifted soon. Even if the U.S. lifted sanctions, EU and other Western sanctions - such as those imposed by Australia, Britain, Canada and Japan - could remain for years to come. Ukraine wants the sanctions to remain in place. Reuters has reported that the U.S. government is studying ways it could ease sanctions on Russia's energy sector as part of a broad plan to enable Washington to deliver swift relief if Moscow agrees to end the Ukraine war. OIL AND GAS Trump has suggested that Putin, who leads the world's second largest oil exporter, might be more inclined to resolve the Ukraine war following a recent drop in oil prices, though the Kremlin said national interests trump oil prices. Still, some diplomats have speculated that the U.S., Russia and Saudi Arabia are seeking lower oil prices as part of a bigger grand bargain that involves issues from the Middle East to Ukraine. Earlier this month, Reuters reported that officials from Washington and Moscow have held discussions about the U.S. helping to revive Russian gas sales to Europe. CEASEFIRE European powers and Ukraine demand Russia agree to a ceasefire before talks but Moscow says a ceasefire will only work once verification issues are sorted out. Kyiv says Moscow is playing for time. Trump says this is a possibility, despite Kremlin denials. RECONSTRUCTION OF UKRAINE The reconstruction of Ukraine will cost hundreds of billions of dollars, and European powers want to use some of the Russian sovereign assets frozen in the West to help Kyiv. Russia says that is unacceptable and, according to Kots, the war correspondent, its negotiators in Istanbul said they wanted both sides to agree not to demand any reparations or present bills for war damage. RUSSIAN SPEAKERS Moscow's negotiators in Istanbul said Russia wanted Ukraine to agree to implement European standards on the treatment of minorities to protect Russian speakers and ethnic Russians in Ukraine, according to Kots. He said they also demanded that Kyiv end what Moscow calls "nationalist propaganda". Ukraine denies Russian allegations it persecutes Russian speakers. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/snakes-ladders-possible-ukrainian-peace-deal-2025-05-14/