2025-05-15 07:45
Long positions on Taiwan dollar highest since December 2020 Bullish bets on ringgit, peso and baht scaled back Rupee underlying fundamentals remain strong - analyst May 15 (Reuters) - Bullish bets on the Taiwan dollar surged to their highest since late 2020 after the currency posted its steepest one-day gain in nearly four decades last week, as traders wagered Taipei might permit appreciation to smooth trade relations with Washington. Analysts doubled down on their long positions on the Taiwan dollar and were more bullish on the South Korean won , according to a fortnightly Reuters poll of 11 respondents. Sign up here. Taiwan's currency surged more than 6% in just two sessions at the start of May, sparking volatile sessions on the Taipei stock exchange, weakening the U.S. dollar across Asia, and sending shockwaves through global foreign exchange markets. However, markets speculated that the sharp currency rally was driven by exporters offloading U.S. dollars following a media report that the government might allow the Taiwan dollar to appreciate to secure a more favourable trade deal with the United States. Francesco Pesole, foreign exchange strategist at ING said local players were seeking greater U.S. dollar hedging as well as starting to diversify away from U.S. investments. This fits into a more worrying bearish territory for the U.S. dollar, Pesole added. The dollar index has weakened nearly 7% in 2025 despite gaining over 1% so far in May, fueling investor optimism toward Asian currencies amid speculation about U.S. pressure for stronger exchange rates among trade surplus partners. On the flipside, analysts had trimmed their bullish bets on the Indian rupee after tensions escalated between India and Pakistan following an attack in Indian Kashmir that killed 26 Hindu tourists. India and Pakistan subsequently announced a ceasefire over the weekend. Meanwhile, the world's two largest economies decided to temporarily lower tariffs for 90 days after talks between Washington and Beijing. "The recent surge in volatility and the dollar's recovery following the US's pause on trade tariffs have cast doubt on the rupee's appreciation. While short-term weakness in the rupee is likely, its underlying fundamentals remain strong," said Dilip Parmar, research analyst at HDFC Securities. Elsewhere, investors were neutral on the Chinese yuan while lowering their long positions on the Malaysian ringgit , the Philippine peso and the Thai baht . The central banks in the Philippines and Thailand lowered their interest rates by 25 basis points in their latest policy meetings, while the Bank Negara Malaysia held steady. The Asian currency positioning poll is focused on what analysts and fund managers believe are the current market positions in nine Asian emerging market currencies: the Chinese yuan, South Korean won, Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Taiwan dollar, Indian rupee, Philippine peso, Malaysian ringgit and the Thai baht. The poll uses estimates of net long or short positions on a scale of minus 3 to plus 3. A score of plus 3 indicates the market is significantly long U.S. dollars. The figures include positions held through non-deliverable forwards (NDFs). The survey findings are provided below (positions in U.S. dollar versus each currency): https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bulls-pile-up-taiwan-dollar-most-since-late-2020-trim-long-position-rupee-2025-05-15/
2025-05-15 07:44
Trump says 'very serious' negotiations underway US president says he wants to avoid violence Oil prices fall on expectations of a deal DUBAI, May 15 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday that the United States was getting very close to securing a nuclear deal with Iran, and Tehran had "sort of" agreed to the terms. "We're in very serious negotiations with Iran for long-term peace," Trump said on a tour of the Gulf, according to a shared pool report by AFP. Sign up here. "We're getting close to maybe doing a deal without having to do this... there (are) two steps to doing this, there is a very, very nice step and there is the violent step, but I don't want to do it the second way," he said. An Iranian source familiar with the negotiations said there were still gaps to bridge in the talks with the United States. Oil prices fell by about $2 on Thursday on expectations for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal that could result in sanctions easing. Talks between Iranian and U.S. negotiators to resolve disputes over Tehran's nuclear programme ended in Oman on Sunday with further negotiations planned, officials said, as Tehran publicly insisted on continuing its uranium enrichment. The Trump administration gave Iran a proposal for a nuclear deal during the fourth round of negotiations on Sunday, a U.S. official and two other sources with direct knowledge of the matter told Axios. Though Tehran and Washington have both said they prefer diplomacy to resolve the decades-long nuclear dispute, they remain divided on several red lines that negotiators will have to circumvent to reach a new deal and avert future military action. Iran's president reacted to Trump's comments on Tuesday in which he called Tehran the “most destructive force” in the Middle East. “Trump thinks he can sanction and threaten us and then talk of human rights. All the crimes and regional instability is caused by them (the United States),” Masoud Pezeshkian said. “He wants to create instability inside Iran.” However, in an interview with NBC News published on Wednesday, an Iranian official said Iran was willing to agree to a deal with the U.S. in exchange for the lifting of economic sanctions. Ali Shamkhani, an adviser to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said Iran would commit to never making nuclear weapons and getting rid of its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, agree to enrich uranium only to the lower levels needed for civilian use and allow international inspectors to supervise the process, NBC reported. 'RED LINE' U.S. officials have publicly stated that Iran should halt uranium enrichment, a stance Iranian officials have called a "red line" asserting they will not give up what they view as their right to enrich uranium on Iranian soil. However, they have indicated a willingness to reduce the level of enrichment. Iranian officials have also expressed readiness to reduce the amount of highly enriched uranium in storage—uranium enriched beyond the levels typically needed for civilian purposes, such as nuclear power generation. But they have said it would not accept lower stockpiles than the amount agreed in a deal with world powers in 2015 - the deal Trump quit. The Iranian source said that while Iran is prepared to offer what it considers concessions, "the issue is that America is not willing to lift major sanctions in exchange." Western sanctions have severely impacted the Iranian economy. Regarding the reduction of enriched uranium in storage, the source noted: “Tehran also wants it removed in several stages, which America doesn't agree with either.” There is also disagreement over the destination to which the highly enriched uranium would be sent, the source added. https://www.reuters.com/world/trump-says-us-is-getting-very-close-nuclear-deal-with-iran-2025-05-15/
2025-05-15 07:25
May 15 (Reuters) - Belgian chemicals group Syensqo (SYENS.BR) , opens new tab beat first-quarter earnings expectations on Thursday, aided by a strong performance of its technology solutions business, but said it would need to cut around 200 jobs amid macroeconomic concerns. "The start of the year has also seen increased uncertainty from ongoing tariff and global trade tensions ... the broader consequences on end demand and the global economy remain unknown," CEO Ilham Kadri said in a statement. Sign up here. Due to uncertain demand, Syensqo is speeding up its restructuring and cost cutting measures, aimed at saving more than 200 million euros ($224 million) by the end of 2026. Half of the planned job cuts will come through retirements, while the other half is to be mitigated by creation of 25 new jobs resulting from the separation with Solvay (SOLB.BR) , opens new tab, Kadri told journalists. "Our company, post demerger with Solvay, is becoming a purer player, with simpler reporting, higher margins and a more focused speciality company," she said on a wire call. The company's shares fell 1.2% by 0721 GMT. Syensqo, which said in February it was exploring a possible U.S. listing, is analysing this option and expects to make a decision by the end of 2025 or early next year, Kadri said. Its underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) fell 15.1% organically to 311 million euros in the first quarter, but beat analysts' average forecast of 301 million provided by the company. European peers like Solvay and Covestro (1COVG.DE) , opens new tab have recently lowered their full-year forecasts due to declining demand, although many have said they can mitigate direct tariff effects through local production. Syensqo has also said it can manage tariff effects by redirecting volumes to unaffected customers and regions. It confirmed 2025 guidance, which excludes the direct impact of tariffs and foreign currency exchange movements. In a separate statement, Syensqo said it had signed multi-year battery materials contracts worth more than 150 million euros with unnamed automotive and battery making clients. ($1 = 0.8932 euros) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/belgiums-syensqo-cut-200-jobs-due-uncertain-demand-after-q1-profit-beat-2025-05-15/
2025-05-15 07:22
FRANKFURT, May 15 (Reuters) - The Bundesbank's top bank supervisor Michael Theurer backed simplifying Europe's capital requirements for lenders on Thursday, while stressing this did not mean lowering them. After nearly two decades of extensive rule-making in the wake of the global financial crisis, European central bankers are now looking to ease the supervisory burden on banks, in part in response to looming deregulation in the United States. Sign up here. Theurer recognised that capital requirements in the European Union, with their "multi-layered, overlapping framework" that rests partly on EU rules and the ECB's own discretion, were too complicated. "We are therefore committed, within the European Union and the Eurosystem, to simplifying the current capital framework," Theurer told a conference organised by the German central bank. "I hope that we will succeed in this with our European partners. However, it would be premature to say exactly where this will lead." He underscored, however, that this "must not lead... to a reduction in capital and liquidity levels", saying this would weaken banks' resilience. The ECB has launched a task force, chaired by Vice President Luis de Guindos and including the Bundesbank's President Joachim Nagel, that will look for ways of simplifying banking rules in Europe. Theurer, a former member of parliament for the liberal Free Democrats who now represents the Bundesbank on the ECB's Supervisory Board, said changes could be made to rules governing banks' trading books. In particular, he said there was consensus within the ECB's Single Supervisory Mechanism (SSM) that the approval processes and review for banks' trading book should be made "as efficient as possible". "And for smaller institutions we want to keep implementation and operating costs as low as possible – that is why we plan to adjust the SSM's processes proportionally," he added. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/bundesbank-backs-simplifying-banks-capital-requirements-2025-05-15/
2025-05-15 06:55
US PPI data due at 1230 GMT Palladium market seen moving to balance, Johnson Matthey says Focus on Powell's speech later on Thursday May 15 (Reuters) - Gold prices erased early losses to steady on Thursday, helped by a weaker dollar and technical buying as investors await key U.S. economic data later in the day for further clarity on future interest rates. Spot gold was little changed at $3,179.07 an ounce as of 1102 GMT, after hitting its lowest since April 10 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.3% to $3,179.20. Sign up here. "We're seeing it's more of a short-covering bounce for gold," said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. "With the dollar weakening, it possibly has contributed to the demand." He said technical factors were also at play, with gold coming off key trendline support "that has been in place since the start of this year". "That level comes in at... (around) $3,130," Razaqzada said. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab slipped 0.3%, making gold cheaper for other currency holders. The U.S. and China this week agreed to temporarily slash harsh reciprocal tariffs, de-escalating a trade war and denting demand for gold as a safe haven. On Thursday, focus will turn to U.S. producer price index data due at 1230 GMT after softer-than-expected consumer data earlier this week. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's speech later in the day will be watched for clues on the Fed's rate path. Markets are expecting 50 basis points of rate cuts this year, with the reductions expected to start from October. Non-yielding gold tends to thrive in a low-rate environment. Elsewhere, spot silver dipped 0.4% to $32.09 an ounce and palladium rose 0.6% to $956.58. Platinum was up 0.7% at $982.53. The palladium market, which was in deficit in 2012-2024, will move into balance this year, with demand falling by 6% as a result of lower production of gasoline vehicles, a major industrial use of the metal, and increased recycling in China, Johnson Matthey said in a report. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-hits-over-one-month-low-us-ppi-data-focus-2025-05-15/
2025-05-15 06:54
SINGAPORE, May 15 (Reuters) - Chinese cobalt smelters have ample supplies of the battery-making material despite the export ban imposed by the world's top producer, the Democratic Republic of Congo, in late February, delegates at an industry conference said this week. Downstream users in China, the top consumer of the metal, have intermediate products stocks that will last between two weeks and six months, Shirley Wang, general manager at Shanghai Metals Market, told Cobalt Congress 2025 in Singapore. Sign up here. "Large-scale users in China are with six months of stocks, though small-scale companies, with half a month stocks, will have to buy from the spot market at higher prices,” Wang said on Thursday. Congo imposed its four-month export ban to address global oversupply and revive prices for the metal used in making batteries for electric vehicles and mobile phones. The ban has helped lift cobalt prices to around $16 a pound, from $10 at the end of 2024. Chinese traders are also well-stocked with cobalt metal, with total volumes equivalent to 12 months of demand, Wang said. Four delegates from Chinese smelters said on the sidelines of the conference that their cobalt supplies were steady and little affected by Congo's ban. One of the four delegates said the stockpiles may peak in June, since it typically takes four months for cobalt to reach Chinese ports from mines in Congo. Patrick Luabeya, head of Congo's regulatory agency for mineral substances, said on Wednesday the country may impose strict curbs on cobalt when the current export ban ends. "Our ban is to make sure that at the end of the day, supply meets demand, but we have noticed that supply has not been affected to consumers," Congo's mines minister, Kizito Pakabomba, said in an interview at the event. For 2025, cobalt oversupply is expected to persist, said Wang of Shanghai Metals Market, with total supply up 6% to 327,000 metric tons, driven by cobalt produced as a byproduct from nickel and copper mining. Wang expects cobalt demand this year of about 237,000 tons, up 0.3% from 231,000 tons last year. Oversupply is likely to persist until at least 2030, she said, with supply at 390,000 tons that year and demand at 264,000 tons. Indonesia, the second-largest cobalt producer, expects to double its production capacity by 2027 and has no plans to control supply, a senior government official said this week. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/china-has-ample-cobalt-despite-congo-ban-conference-delegates-say-2025-05-15/
