2025-05-13 00:33

Markets bullish on US-China tariff relief Increasing OPEC+ supply could weigh on prices Lower US inflation seen as positive for demand HOUSTON, May 13 (Reuters) - Crude oil futures climbed more than $1.60 a barrel on Tuesday, lifted by a temporary cut in U.S.-China tariffs and a better-than-expected inflation report. Brent crude futures settled at $66.63 a barrel, up $1.67, or 2.57%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude finished at $63.67, up $1.72 or 2.78%. Sign up here. The two benchmarks rose by about 4% or more in the previous session after the U.S. and China agreed on sharp reductions to their import tariffs for at least 90 days, which also boosted stocks on Wall Street and the dollar. "We didn't participate as much as other markets did yesterday in the China boom, so we're catching up today," said John Kilduff, a partner with Again Capital LLC. "Also the data this morning gives the Fed room to potentially begin making some moves." The U.S. Labor Department reported on Tuesday that the Consumer Price Index rose 2.3% in the 12 months through April, the smallest year-over-year gain in four years, leading Wall Street firms like JPMorgan Chase and Barclays to cut their forecasts of a U.S. recession in the coming months. The tamer inflation reading will likely be greeted with some relief by the Federal Reserve, which has kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged since last cutting it in December. The U.S. central bank has paused its rate cuts amid concerns that the trade war could reignite inflation. "All the numbers are bullish today," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The inflation number, the economic data are very supportive." The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, a group called OPEC+, are planning to boost oil exports in May and June, which is seen as possibly limiting oil's upside. OPEC has raised oil output by more than previously expected since April, with its May output likely to increase by 411,000 barrels per day. Meanwhile, sources told Reuters that Saudi Arabia's crude oil supply to China will hold steady in June after hitting its highest level in more than a year in the previous month after an OPEC+ decision to increase output. The kingdom is the second-largest crude supplier to China behind Russia. Elsewhere, signs broadly point to demand for refined fuel remaining strong. "Despite the deteriorating outlook for crude demand, positive signals from the fuel markets cannot be overlooked," JPMorgan analysts said in a note. "Although international crude prices have declined by 22% since their peak on January 15, both refined product prices and refining margins have remained stable." Reduced refining capacity - mostly in the U.S. and Europe - is tightening gasoline and diesel balances, increasing reliance on imports and raising susceptibility to price spikes during maintenance and unplanned outages, they added. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-prices-ease-off-2-week-highs-after-us-china-pause-tariff-war-2025-05-13/

2025-05-12 23:58

Alibaba, JD.com and Meituan look to goods delivered in 30-60 minutes for growth Intense competition drives e-commerce giants to compete on speed Subsidies and cash reserves help support instant retail expansion SHANGHAI, May 13 (Reuters) - Chinese e-commerce giants Alibaba (9988.HK) , opens new tab and JD.com (9618.HK) , opens new tab have opened a new front in the ongoing battle for market share, with both expanding aggressively into so-called instant retail centred around delivery speeds of 30 to 60 minutes this year. Investors will be dissecting the strategy when JD.com reports its quarterly earnings on Tuesday and Alibaba on Thursday, as finding new avenues for growth has proven challenging for China's largest online retailers. Sign up here. Their market penetration is already high and prices for goods are under pressure due to a consumer slowdown driven by concerns about employment and wages as well as a prolonged property market downturn. The new turf war focused on speed is coming at a high cost in the short term as the e-commerce giants look to entice consumers with hefty discounts. JD.com's JD Takeaway and Alibaba's food delivery app Ele.me last month each pledged 10 billion yuan ($1.38 billion) in subsidies. JD Takeaway said it would invest the sum over a year, while Ele.me did not disclose the timeframe. "The competition is so intense, there's not a lot of incremental growth opportunities, so everybody is moving into everybody else's territories and instant retail is the latest example of that," said Jason Yu, general manager at CTR Market Research. China's food delivery market leader Meituan (3690.HK) , opens new tab has moved to grow its business by expanding its instashopping platform, which delivers non-food goods within 30 minutes and JD.com announced its entry into food delivery in February. "In the past people would go to JD.com to buy a mobile phone and they would deliver to you in the same day, then suddenly they could go to Meituan and have the new Apple iPhone delivered within 30 minutes. That posed a direct threat to JD.com and they moved into food delivery in response," Yu said. At the end of April, Alibaba expanded its instant shopping portal on its domestic e-commerce app Taobao. That gave users access to restaurants, coffee shops and bubble tea chains available on Alibaba's Ele.me - China's second-largest food delivery player behind Meituan - plus many other categories including pet food and apparel. Alibaba, JD.com and Meituan did not respond to requests for comment. Subsidised spending on instant retail from Alibaba and JD.com is being welcomed by cost-conscious consumers. Users on JD Takeaway currently enjoy discounts of up to 20 yuan, or $2.77, per day for deliveries from restaurants including McDonald's, Haidilao and Burger King. On Taobao's instant shopping portal, consumers can receive a discount of 11 yuan on a bill of at least 15 yuan. Liu Qi, 24, a small business owner in Tianjin, said he was pleased when he recently bought a coconut latte on JD Takeaway for only 5.9 yuan. "I asked the deliveryman and he said he makes 4 yuan per delivery, so essentially, JD.com bought me a cup of coffee and delivered it to my door," Liu said. He was even more surprised days later when he bought a coffee on Taobao's instant shopping portal for only 3.9 yuan. "It was 2 yuan cheaper than JD.com!" he said. WAR CHESTS While subsidising consumer discounts for instant retail is expensive, China's e-commerce giants have significant cash reserves. As of December 31, Alibaba, JD.com and Meituan had net cash positions of 400 billion, 144 billion and 110 billion yuan respectively, according to Morningstar analysts. And despite the low margins inherent in the business, a renewed focus on instant retail made sense for JD.com and Alibaba in part because both firms have armies of couriers already at their disposal, analysts said. That means there is no need for an expensive build-out of delivery infrastructure as would be required for other potential entrants like Temu-owner PDD Holdings (PDD.O) , opens new tab. Beijing-based independent industry analyst Liu Xingliang said Alibaba and JD.com were leveraging high-frequency demand for food, coffee and bubble tea to boost lower-frequency demand for clothing, electronics and other higher-margin purchases - betting that if consumers open their apps more often, they might buy more overall. For JD.com, the expansion into instant retail was particularly important given its traditional e-commerce business appeared to have hit a ceiling, he said. "It must try to gain market share in new business areas." ($1 = 7.2194 Chinese yuan renminbi) https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/chinese-e-commerce-giants-make-expensive-bets-fast-deliveries-2025-05-12/

2025-05-12 23:53

SAO PAULO, May 12 (Reuters) - Brazilian cosmetic maker Natura (NTCO3.SA) , opens new tab posted on Monday a first-quarter net loss of 150.7 million reais ($26.6 million), 83.9% narrower than a year earlier. Core earnings, as measured by recurring earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), stood at 789.5 million reais, up some 30% year-on-year and above the 623 million-real expected by analysts in a LSEG poll. Sign up here. ($1 = 5.6699 reais) https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/brazil-cosmetic-maker-naturas-q1-net-loss-narrows-by-84-2025-05-12/

2025-05-12 23:32

RIO DE JANEIRO, May 12 (Reuters) - Brazil's Petrobras (PETR4.SA) , opens new tab on Monday posted a net profit of 35.2 billion reais ($6.21 billion) for the first quarter, up 48.6% from a year earlier, boosted by non-recurring events, while also announcing about $2.1 billion in dividends. Without one-off events, including variations on the exchange rate between the real and the dollar, the state-run oil firm would have had a 12.1% drop in its net profit for the same period, to around 23.6 billion reais. Sign up here. Petrobras Chief Executive Magda Chambriard said in a statement the firm's financial and operational results were "robust." The oil producer's adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) stood at 61 billion reais, a 1.7% increase year-on-year. Without non-recurring effects, adjusted EBITDA stood at 62.3 billion reais, Petrobras said. Analysts polled by LSEG had expected a 62.9 billion real EBITDA. In a separate filing, Petrobras said its board of directors approved the payment of 11.72 billion reais (about $2.1 billion) in dividends and interest on equity to shareholders, or about 0.91 real per share. The amount came as investments as measured by capital expenditure (capex), which has been in focus for market participants, came in at $4.1 billion from around $3 billion a year earlier, the earnings report showed. "These investments are concentrated in pre-salt projects, especially in the Buzios and Atapu fields," said the firm's Chief Financial Officer Fernando Melgarejo in the statement, adding Petrobras has invested 22% of its guidance for the year. Petrobras' investments got special attention from investors after they came in above the firm's own estimates in 2024, leading to fears of potentially lower dividends. Net revenue in the quarter rose 4.6% to 123.1 billion reais, Petrobras said, slightly below the 124.9 billion reais expected by analysts. The firm had already released an operational report last month showing a drop of 0.2% in its oil, gas and gas liquids production, to 2.77 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. ($1 = 5.6699 reais) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/brazils-petrobras-posts-49-increase-q1-net-profit-2025-05-12/

2025-05-12 23:18

NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 12 (Reuters) - U.S. farmers are poised to reap a record corn crop in the upcoming 2025-26 cycle. Additionally, combined output among key corn exporters in South America is also slated for an all-time high in 2025-26. Sign up here. But the U.S. Department of Agriculture predicts global corn ending stocks to fall to 12-year lows in 2025-26 as demand continues its robust pace. This means that the strong U.S. crop expectations need to come to fruition to prevent a further slippage in supplies. USDA on Monday pegged 2025-26 global corn ending stocks at 277.8 million metric tons, considerably below the pre-report trade estimate of 297.4 million. That is down 3% on the year and down 16% from 2023-24, and it would represent the lightest global carryout since 2013-14. If demand is factored in, corn stocks-to-use of 18.9% in 2025-26 would be the lowest since 2012-13, further demonstrating that corn supplies are not exactly predicted to be plentiful. If China is excluded from global corn stocks, the 2025-26 target actually rises 7% on the year. Still, the resulting figure would be the second-smallest in 13 years. This means China is acting to trim global corn stocks rather than boost them, the latter of which is usually the case due to China’s grain hoarding. USDA sees a record-large 2025-26 Chinese corn crop, but the rate of growth is set to be the smallest in five years. That harvest outlook is consistent with what China reported on Monday. However, China forecasts its corn imports flat on the year while USDA is hoping for a bump in 2025-26. U.S. CORN RUNDOWN USDA’s U.S. corn ending stock estimate for 2025-26 was also surprisingly light at 1.8 billion bushels, coming in right at the lowest trade estimate. That was driven by the tightening of old-crop stocks plus a forecast for record new-crop demand. Some analysts took issue with the aggressive demand assumptions, particularly on exports. Those are set to take an above-average, but not record, share of total U.S. corn use. U.S. corn exporters may face more competition from Brazil over the next year as both its 2024-25 and 2025-26 crops are seen well above the meager levels of 2023-24. USDA also sees 2025-26 imports by Mexico, the largest U.S. corn buyer, unchanged on the year. Tighter-than-expected 2025-26 U.S. corn carryout and the associated record crop of 15.82 billion bushels, some 6.4% more than last year, depend on a record 181 bushel-per-acre yield. The current high is last year’s 179.3. The potential loftiness of a 181 yield might have some market participants thinking that actual U.S. corn supplies could be even thinner into 2026, but don’t forget about area. Many expect that the current 95.3 million-planted-acre target could rise. Keeping the same yield, corn acres at 96 million would add 116 million bushels to production. Acres at 97 million add 282 million bushels, which would lift carryout over the psychological 2 billion-bushel mark if nothing else is changed. Those impacts would first be seen in USDA’s July supply and demand report, which will incorporate the June area survey results. U.S. farmers are working efficiently this spring, having planted an above-average 62% of their corn crop as of Sunday. But the real test is going to come over the next couple of months. The latest set of USDA projections means that any kind of U.S. summer weather scare could ignite corn supply concerns, and potentially more easily than many might have previously expected. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/world-corn-supplies-set-12-year-lows-despite-massive-us-crop-braun-2025-05-12/

2025-05-12 21:40

SAO PAULO, May 12 (Reuters) - Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras (PETR4.SA) , opens new tab said on Monday its board of directors approved the payment of 11.72 billion reais ($2.07 billion) in dividends and interest on equity to shareholders, or about 0.91 real per share. ($1 = 5.6699 reais) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/petrobras-announces-21-billion-dividends-interest-equity-2025-05-12/