2026-01-19 05:25

BEIJING, Jan 19 (Reuters) - China's mostly coal-based thermal power generation fell in 2025 for the first time in 10 years, government data showed on Monday, as growing renewable generation met growth in electricity demand even as overall power usage hit a record. The data is a positive signal for the decarbonisation of China's power sector as the country sets a course for carbon emissions to peak by 2030. Still, coal output edged up to a record high last year. Sign up here. Thermal electricity, generated mostly by coal-fired capacity with a small amount from natural gas, fell 1% in 2025 to 6.29 trillion kilowatt-hours (kWh), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). It fell more sharply in December, down by 3.2%, from a year earlier, the data showed. "The record-level buildout of renewables over recent years has cumulatively impacted the generation mix and squeezed more coal out, coupled with a milder power demand growth of 5% in 2025," said Peng Chengyao, head of APAC power and renewables research at S&P Global Energy. Power demand had grown by 6.8% year-on-year in 2024, according to the China Electricity Council. Still, 2025 growth was enough to tip China's electricity consumption to a new record high, the National Energy Administration (NEA) announced on Saturday, surpassing 10 trillion kWh for the first time. That was more than the combined consumption of the European Union, Russia, India and Japan in 2024, driven by rapid consumption growth in internet and related services and EV manufacturing. The NEA statistics offer a fuller picture of power use than the NBS data released on Monday, which omits some smaller-scale renewables generation from wind and solar because of the survey's minimum annual revenue cutoff. The NBS statistics showed power generation reached 9.72 trillion kWh last year, up 2.2% compared with 2024. The NBS data also showed that hydropower grew at a steady pace, up 4.1% in December and 2.8% for the full year. Nuclear power output rose 3.1% in December and 7.7% in 2025, respectively. Thermal power generation is unlikely to accelerate in 2026 as renewables growth continues apace, while power demand growth holds steady at 5%, according to S&P's forecast. "This trend towards a structural shift in power generation is difficult to reverse," said Feng Dongbin, vice general manager at Fenwei Digital Information Technology, which operates Chinese coal analytics platform Sxcoal. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/renewables-push-chinas-fossilfuelled-power-into-first-annual-drop-10-years-2026-01-19/

2026-01-19 03:50

Iran unrest subsides, lowering risk of US attack Greenland sovereignty dispute affecting US-Europe relations Trading activity muted due to US public holiday CALGARY, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Oil prices steadied on Monday as civil unrest in Iran subsided, reducing the likelihood of a U.S. attack that could disrupt supplies from the major producer, while market-watchers turned their attention to a stand-off over Greenland. Brent crude was up one cent, or 0.02%, at $64.14 a barrel by 1946 GMT. West Texas Intermediate for February was flat on the previous day's settlement at $59.44 a barrel. Sign up here. Trading activity was muted due to a U.S. federal holiday. Iran's violent crackdown has quelled protests that officials say killed 5,000 people. U.S. President Donald Trump, meanwhile, seems to have stepped back from earlier threats of intervention. "With fears around Iran subsiding over the last few days after rumours of a U.S. attack, the market is now focusing on the Greenland situation and how deep any fallout between the U.S. and Europe could be, as any trade war expansion could impact demand," said Rystad analyst Janiv Shah. Trump has intensified his push to wrest sovereignty over Greenland from fellow NATO member Denmark, threatening punitive tariffs on countries that stand in his way and prompting the European Union to weigh hitting back with its own measures. EU leaders will convene in Brussels on Thursday for an emergency summit, a European Union spokesperson said on Monday. As Greenland does not produce oil, there is no direct connection for crude markets, said Commodity Context founder Rory Johnston. But the row over the island is a broadly risk-off development for investors, he said, pointing to Monday's selloff in equity markets. Global stocks dropped and the dollar eased against the safe-haven yen and Swiss franc on Monday on concerns about a possible trade war between the U.S. and Europe. The market was also looking at the risk of damage to Russian infrastructure and distillate supplies at a time when colder weather is forecast to cross North America and Europe, adding to market unease, said PVM Oil Associates analyst John Evans. In the longer term, the crude market will continue to face downward pressure from an increase in Venezuelan oil on the U.S. Gulf Coast, while a new forecast from the International Monetary Fund predicting stronger economic growth in 2026 should increase demand expectations, said Phil Flynn, senior analyst for the Price Futures Group. "The market is going to be locked in by competing bullish and bearish forces, leading to a sort of sideways trade," Flynn said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-steady-ebbing-iranian-protests-lower-chance-us-attack-2026-01-19/

2026-01-19 03:08

China 2025 crude steel output lowest since 2018 December output at a two-year low Output in 2026 seen down 3%, Lange Steel says BEIJING, Jan 19 (Reuters) - China's crude steel output in 2025 fell below 1 billion metric tons to a seven-year low as a protracted downturn in the property market hurt demand, although steel exports rose to record levels. The world's largest steel producer manufactured 960.81 million tons of the metal in 2025, the lowest level since 2018, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Monday. That marked a decline of 4.4% from 2024. Sign up here. Chinese steelmakers have struggled for profitability since the second half of 2022 owing to the persistent property market slowdown. However, analysts said profitability improved in 2025, in part because producers shifted to flat steel products, such as hot-rolled coil, which are in higher demand. China's steel exports, which data last week showed rose to a record of just over 119 million tons last year, are mainly composed of flat steel. As a result, the share of steel reinforcing bars - used in construction - dropped to 13% of total steel production in the first 11 months of 2025 from 23% over the same period in 2019, according to Reuters calculations based on official data. China has not yet released a breakdown of such output for the full year. Data from consultancy Mysteel showed an average of 54% of steelmakers were profitable last year, versus 36% in 2024. Analysts expect crude steel output to decline further in 2026, though at a slower pace. Ge Xin, deputy director at consultancy Lange Steel, forecast a roughly 3% fall in crude steel output for 2026. Beijing said in late December that it would continue to regulate crude steel output and prohibit the addition of illegal new capacity from 2026 to 2030, without providing further details. Beijing put an end to growth in crude steel output from 2021 as part of efforts to limit carbon emissions. For December, output fell 2.4% from the month before to the lowest since December 2023 at 68.18 million tons, marking a seventh consecutive monthly decline as some steel mills conducted annual equipment maintenance during a period of typically sluggish demand. December output fell 10.3% from the same month in 2024. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-crude-steel-output-hits-seven-year-low-2025-despite-record-exports-2026-01-19/

2026-01-19 02:59

MUMBAI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, which has been under sustained pressure from portfolio outflows, may find near-term relief on Monday following a pullback in the dollar amid the Greenland dispute. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open in the 90.70-90.74 range versus the U.S. dollar. It dropped 0.6% on Friday to settle at 90.8650. Sign up here. President Donald Trump on Saturday vowed to implement a wave of increasing tariffs on European allies until the United States is allowed to buy Greenland. Investors responded to the news by selling the dollar, offloading U.S. equity futures and bought into safe havens. The dollar declined against its major peers and most Asian currencies on Monday. Futures on the S&P 500 index dropped 0.8%, while the euro advanced. "Typically, you would think tariffs being threatened would lead to a weaker euro," Khoon Goh, head of Asia research at ANZ, Singapore, said. However, "the impact in the FX markets has actually been more towards dollar weakness every time there is heightened policy uncertainty emanating from the U.S.," he said. European Union ambassadors reached a broad agreement on Sunday to intensify efforts to dissuade Trump from imposing tariffs on European allies, while preparing retaliatory measures should the duties go ahead. "Europe finds itself back in a new, and more severe, tariff fight. At this point, the outcome of these new trade tensions is unclear," ING Bank said in a note. "What has long been evident is that there is no such thing as trade or tariff certainty anymore." The flare-up in tensions over Greenland comes at a time when the rupee is already grappling with sustained pressure from persistent equity outflows and increased hedging driven by depreciation expectations. The strain was most evident on Friday when the currency posted its largest one-day decline in nearly two months and inched closer to its all-time low of 91.0750. KEY INDICATORS: ** Dollar index at 99.20 ** Brent crude futures down 0% at $64.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.23% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $389.7 million worth of Indian shares on January 15 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $90.9 million worth of Indian bonds on January 15 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/struggling-rupee-seeks-respite-dollar-pullback-amid-greenland-dispute-2026-01-19/

2026-01-19 02:50

MUMBAI, Jan 19 (Reuters) - Portfolio outflows are likely to pressure the Indian rupee and government bonds this week, leaving the currency vulnerable to fresh lows and debt markets under strain, with the focus on debt supply. The rupee closed at 90.8650 per dollar on Friday, down 0.7% week-on-week and inching closer to its all-time low of 91.0750 hit in December. Sign up here. The currency has remained under pressure since steep U.S. tariffs on Indian goods went into effect last year and investors reckon a turnaround in fortunes is unlikely in the absence of a breakthrough in negotiations between New Delhi and Washington. "The single most important issue remains a comprehensive and balanced trade deal with the United States, probably at least partly dependent on an easing of the personal tensions between Indian PM Modi and U.S. President Donald Trump," said Carl Vermassen, a portfolio manager in the emerging markets debt team at Zurich-based Vontobel Asset Management. The trade limbo has also dulled the sheen of local stocks for foreign investors who have pulled out about $2 billion from local stocks over January so far, contributing to pressure on the rupee. The dollar index, meanwhile, logged its third consecutive weekly gain on Friday, bolstered by fading odds of imminent rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve. While the data calendar is relatively light this week, the focus will be on U.S. personal spending and GDP data. Meanwhile, rupee traders will be assessing the fallout of the Greenland dispute on the dollar, U.S. yields and risk appetitive. U.S. President Donald Trump vowed to slap tariffs on eight European nations until the U.S. is allowed to buy Greenland. BONDS The 10-year benchmark 6.48% 2035 yield settled at 6.6767% on Friday, up for a third consecutive week on supply worries and missing the bus for a global index inclusion. Traders expect the yield to move in a 6.63%–6.72% range, with continued attention on the overall demand-supply scenario as well as the central bank's liquidity action. Last Tuesday, Bloomberg Index Services deferred the inclusion of local bonds to its flagship Global Aggregate Index, which left market participants dejected as they were counting on foreign inflows amid worries over excess supply and elevated yields. Vermassen, who expects inflows of $20 billion from the Bloomberg index inclusion, said it would not be a game-changer, with the impact being somewhat smaller, in relative terms, than the earlier inclusion in JPMorgan index. Heavy weekly borrowing from the centre and states continues, with aggregate gross supply of 8 trillion rupees this quarter. This has pressured yields, leading to the spread widening between federal and state government debt. "We expect spread to increase further given higher state debt supply and lower demand from market participants. We do not see any significant impact on central government bond yields," said Srinivas Rao Ravuri, chief investment officer at Bajaj Life Insurance. KEY EVENTS: India ** January HSBC manufacturing, services and composite Flash PMI - January 23, Friday (10:30 a.m. IST) U.S. ** July-September GDP final - January 22, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to January 17 - January 22, Thursday (7:00 p.m. IST) ** November personal consumption expenditure - January 22, Thursday (8:30 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll: 2.8%) ** January S&P Global manufacturing, services and composite Flash PMI - January 23, Friday (8:30 p.m. IST) ** January U-Mich sentiment - January 23, Friday (8:30 p.m. IST) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/portfolio-outflows-likely-pressure-rupee-bonds-spillover-greenland-dispute-eyed-2026-01-19/

2026-01-19 00:43

Jan 19 (Reuters) - There will be no FOREX reports out of the United States on Monday, January 19, due to the Martin Luther King Jr public holiday. Reuters will resume the reports during Asian trading hours on Tuesday January 20. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-under-pressure-safe-havens-rise-trump-ups-tariff-ante-over-greenland-2026-01-19/