2025-04-28 06:05

LITTLETON, Colorado, April 28 (Reuters) - Louisiana has long been overshadowed by its more showy neighbour Texas, which boasts a larger economy and population and has for decades wielded greater sway among policymakers in Washington DC and on the world stage. But the Bayou State is staging a revival that could see it emerge as the more dynamic and influential Gulf Coast hub over the coming decades, thanks to a development blueprint that could be described as being all things to all people. Sign up here. As the main exit point for U.S. LNG exports, Louisiana is a key cheerleader of the "drill baby drill" vibe stemming from the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, and is also home to some of the country's most important natural gas basins. The state is also planning for a brand new multi-billion dollar steel plant that was celebrated at a White House ceremony earlier this year heralding a return of traditional manufacturing to the United States. Yet Louisiana's smokestack industries - which include century-old refining and chemicals sectors - are also at the cutting edge of an ongoing carbon capture drive that has made the state a major player in the clean energy field. Throw in a leading hydrogen industry, a battery production sector and a growing data center presence, and Louisiana could offer something for whichever party is in power in Washington, with industries fit for America's 21st century needs. DEFT MESSAGING & A CAPTIVE AUDIENCE A key driver of Louisiana's progress is a willingness to re-purpose the old and bolt on the new. And that philosophy extends beyond bricks and mortar industry to marketing pitches and business mission statements. For instance, projects that were touted as drivers of the energy transition under the Biden administration are now marketed as boosting energy security and job creation, which is much more palatable to the Trump administration. These include businesses that reduce chemical plant emissions and are being positioned as leaders in carbon capture and sequestration (CCUS), which has high growth potential over the coming decades. And Louisiana's leadership position in CCUS is not just on paper, as the state is home to more than 60 carbon capture projects including 13 CO2 pipelines and several ammonia and hydrogen plants that intend to use CO2 as a feedstock. Industrial gas producer Air Products is also building a complex in the state dedicated to widening hydrogen applications, which could extend to the state's fertilizer and steel producers that are currently heavy natural gas users. AMERICAN MADE The liquefied natural gas industry has already established Louisiana as its primary hub, with roughly two-thirds of U.S. LNG exports - valued at over $30 billion in 2024 - departing via state terminals, according to trade intelligence firm Kpler. And Louisiana's share of LNG trade looks set to climb further once the Plaquemines LNG export facility reaches its scheduled full capacity by the end of this year. Gas developers are also boosting extraction from Louisiana fields, especially from the Haynesville basin which contains gas with fewer impurities than other large deposits and so makes it ideal for profitably converting to LNG for export. This flurry of extraction activity is also spurring growth in ancillary services in the state, including in the pipeline equipment production and maintenance sectors. Other businesses and industries are also setting up shop in Louisiana. Manufacturers including Hyundai Steel (.004020.KS) , opens new tab, Ice Industries - a steel rail manufacturer for solar panels - and industrial equipment maker PSS have all announced plans to build new plants in the state within the past year. Social media giant Meta (META.O) , opens new tab plans to spend $10 billion to build a 4 million square foot data centre in the state, while consumer goods maker Procter and Gamble (.PG) , opens new tab recently announced production line expansions at its Rapides Parish facility. Manufacturers of chemicals and plastics are also expanding in the state, in the hope that the current push to re-shore factory production to the U.S. sparks higher demand for industrial ingredients. COST PRESSURE A growing supply of natural gas within the state - including via a new pipeline that will ferry gas from the Permian Basin direct to Louisiana's main industrial hub from 2026 - is also luring industries in need of abundant power supplies. For now, that swell in gas output is furnishing Louisiana with an additional competitive advantage, in the form of below-average electricity costs for industry. At 10.7 cents per kilowatt hour, Louisiana's commercial electricity cost is 16% less than the national average, according to data portal electricchoice.com. That rate is also lower than those prevailing in Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Michigan and Pennsylvania - states that also compete for manufacturing and technology company business, and is a key reason why businesses are drawn to Louisiana. However, any substantial increase in industrial gas use - either for LNG exports or from local businesses that burn gas for power or processes - will likely place upward pressure on energy costs going forward. And sharply higher overall energy demand is all but guaranteed once the businesses that are moving to or expanding in the state crank up, including Meta's behemoth data center. But with growing supplies of natural gas and plans to expand nuclear power generation in the state, local power suppliers are arguably better equipped than most to ensure energy supplies can keep up with demand. That may help Louisiana emerge from the shadow of neighbor Texas - where strained grids and volatile power prices are common - and establish itself as a new critical hub for America's future energy and industrial needs. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/crafty-us-state-thats-showing-how-thrive-under-trump-maguire-2025-04-28/

2025-04-28 06:04

US dollar set for heavy monthly fall versus yen, euro US jobs data, GDP in focus Euro zone CPI readings due from Tuesday Traders confused by mixed signals on US-China trade relations NEW YORK/LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar slid across the board on Monday, as investors waited warily for further news of U.S. trade policy and braced for a week packed with economic data, which may initially provide an indication on whether U.S. President Donald Trump's trade war is hitting home. "Today has been characterized by a correlation between the dwindling buck and doubt affecting equities," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. Sign up here. "While earnings will keep markets eager, the main issue remains the lack of faith in having a good economic situation developing in the U.S. as it tries to act unilaterally and use leverage as the world's largest economy." Both the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab and Nasdaq (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell on Monday, with the Dow (.DJI) , opens new tab edging higher. In afternoon trading, the dollar fell 1.1% against the yen to 142.10, posting its biggest daily fall since April 10. The euro also rose versus the greenback, up 0.5% at $1.1419 . Against the Swiss franc, the dollar was down 0.7% at 0.8205 franc . Earlier in the session, the dollar had posted gains versus the Swiss currency. The U.S. unit was headed for its largest monthly fall since July last year, as Trump rattled confidence in the dependability of U.S. assets. The euro, on the other hand, was on track for its largest monthly gain against the dollar in nearly 15 years. The greenback did trim monthly losses against both the euro and yen toward the end of last week amid an apparent conciliatory shift in the tone of U.S.-China relations. Both sides seemed to soften their respective stances, with the Trump administration signalling openness to reducing tariffs and China exempting some imports from its 125% levies. Yet where Trump insists there has been progress, and that he has spoken with President Xi Jinping, Beijing has denied trade talks are occurring and on Sunday, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent did not say that tariff talks were under way. On Monday, Bessent said top U.S. trading partners had made "very good" proposals to avert U.S. tariffs, and one of the first deals to be signed would likely be with India. As for China, the top Treasury official said "all aspects of government are in contact with China," and underscored that it was up to China to reduce tensions since it sold five times more goods to the United States than vice versa. BIG DATA COMING UP Investors are also awaiting the April U.S. jobs report, due on Friday, where jobs growth is still expected, although at a sharply slower pace than a month earlier. Federal Reserve officials including Chair Jerome Powell have indicated they would be willing to cut interest rates if it becomes clear there are risks to growth. But most appear content to first determine what impact Trump's tariffs have on real-economy metrics such as inflation and employment before making a move. The U.S. also releases first-quarter GDP data and the Federal Reserve's favored inflation gauge, core PCE, this week, while GDP and preliminary inflation figures are also due in Europe. "Data later on may move the buck but for now we see ourselves at the mercy of headlines offering some clue about progress on the trade front," said Monex's Perez. "Long-term planning as well as forecasting navigating through the headache of ever-changing narratives. With 'Sell USA' mentality abroad, the dollar is quick to suffer from a sour mood. Across the Atlantic, the euro fell 0.4% against the pound to 85.03 pence, as news hit of a massive power outage across much of Spain on Monday. Canadians, meanwhile, vote in a general election on Monday, with the ruling Liberal Party holding a narrow lead in opinion polls and a larger one in online prediction markets. Options markets suggest traders are not bracing for much currency volatility, with the U.S. dollar slipping 0.1% to C$1.3836 . The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, sets monetary policy on Thursday. No policy change is expected, though markets will be focused on the outlook and how policymakers are planning to navigate an uncertain economic environment- especially as U.S.-Japan trade talks are expected to touch on the currency. Japan's top currency diplomat Atsushi Mimura on Monday denied a report in the Yomiuri newspaper that Bessent had said during a bilateral meeting with Japan that a weak dollar and a strong yen are desirable. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/dollar-sellers-pause-with-eye-us-jobs-2025-04-28/

2025-04-28 05:53

Scant clarity as yet on U.S. trade talks Mega-cap earnings, U.S. jobs and GDP data on tap Global recession risk high due to Trump's tariffs, economists say Canadians vote in election dominated by concerns about Trump NEW YORK, April 28 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow ended in positive territory at the conclusion of a choppy session on Monday and gold advanced as investors looked for signs of progress in tariff negotiations at the top of an eventful week of corporate earnings and economic data. Tech sector (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab weakness pulled the Nasdaq lower, while the dollar advanced against a basket of world currencies and safe-haven gold rebounded. Sign up here. "We had a nice rally last week," said Ross Mayfield, investment strategy analyst at Baird in Louisville, Kentucky. "But in the absence of a major positive catalyst, I think it's going to be harder for equities to climb much higher from here." Mayfield called Monday's market gyration "just a little bit of drift, with a lack of catalysts and a lot concentrated in the back half of the week." U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Monday many top U.S. trading partners have made "very good" tariff proposals, adding that China's recent moves to exempt certain U.S. goods from its retaliatory tariffs showed a willingness to de-escalate tensions between the world's two largest economies. "We were at a point where, unless we get a major resolution on the trade front, or big upside from some of the economic data or earnings this week, I think we're in this trading range that I feel we're going to be trapped in for a while," Mayfield said. Despite hopes for progress, economists polled by Reuters see a high risk of global recession due to Trump's tariffs. Three months ago, they projected the world economy growing at a healthy clip. First-quarter earnings season heats up this week, with Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab, Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab and Amazon.com (AMZN.O) , opens new tab among the high-profile results on the docket. While no U.S. economic data were released on Monday, the week is back-end loaded with closely watched indicators such as Personal Consumption Expenditures, the Institute for Supply Management's purchasing managers' index, an advance take on U.S. GDP and the April employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 114.09 points, or 0.28%, to 40,227.59, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 3.54 points, or 0.06%, to 5,528.75 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 16.81 points, or 0.10%, to 17,366.13. European shares rose as investors remained optimistic that U.S.-China trade tensions would wane. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 3.35 points, or 0.41%, to 828.09. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index rose 0.53%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab rose 10.13 points, or 0.49%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab rose 6.35 points, or 0.58%, to 1,103.45. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed higher by 0.62%, to 574.20, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab rose 134.25 points, or 0.38%, to 35,839.99. U.S. Treasury yields eased ahead of critical earnings and economic data this week. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 5.6 basis points to 4.21%, from 4.266% late on Friday. The 30-year bond yield fell 5.2 basis points to 4.6862% from 4.738% late on Friday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 7.7 basis points to 3.685%, from 3.762% late on Friday. The dollar fell as investors awaited trade talks progress and girded themselves for an eventful week. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.8% to 98.93, with the euro up 0.51% at $1.1422. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 1.13% to 142.05. Sterling strengthened 0.9% to $1.3434. The Mexican peso weakened 0.21% versus the dollar at 19.57. The Canadian dollar strengthened 0.26% versus the greenback to C$1.38 per dollar. Canadians are going to the polls on Monday after an election campaign in which U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs and musings about annexing Canada became the central issue. Crude oil softened as investors weighed a potential supply increase from OPEC+ amid ongoing trade uncertainties. U.S. crude fell 1.54% to settle at $62.05 per barrel, while Brent settled at $65.86 per barrel, down 1.51% on the day. Gold prices advanced in opposition to the easing greenback as bargain-hunting kicked in. Spot gold rose 0.98% to $3,350.59 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 0.06% to $3,284.50 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-04-28/

2025-04-28 05:48

MUMBAI, April 28 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was modestly stronger on Monday, aided by mild dollar sales from foreign banks, while its near-tenor implied volatility rose to a two-year peak as traders gauged the impact of equity inflows picking up despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. The rupee was at 85.26 against the U.S. dollar as of 11:00 a.m. IST, up from its close at 85.45 in the previous session. Sign up here. Asian currencies were mostly weaker even as the dollar slipped against major peers. The offshore Chinese yuan declined to 7.29 per U.S. dollar. Routine dollar bids are present but the daily fix is quoting "nearly at par", suggesting that there isn't a significant mismatch in the demand to buy and sell dollars at the daily reference rate, the trader added. Meanwhile, the dollar-rupee pair's 1-month implied volatility rose to 5.2%, its highest since March 2023. The rupee "is expected to remain volatile," said Amit Pabari, managing director at FX advisory firm CR Forex. Rising foreign exchange reserves and portfolio inflows offer support to the rupee but persistent geopolitical tensions could cap any meaningful appreciation, Pabari added. India's foreign exchange reserves rose to a six-month high of $686.15 billion as of April 18, per central bank data released on Friday. Foreign buying of Indian stocks has also picked up, with overseas investors lapping up over $2 billion of local equities last week. On the day, benchmark Indian equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab were both up nearly 1% each, tracking the gains of most of their regional counterparts. A raft of U.S. economic data will be in focus this week as investors gauge the impact of shifting trade policies while keeping an eye on country-specific trade negotiations. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/rupee-ticks-up-volatility-expectations-climb-two-year-peak-2025-04-28/

2025-04-28 05:34

April 28 (Reuters) - Ukraine has agreed that the past U.S. aid provided to Kyiv will not be part of a minerals deal it aims to sign with Washington, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said on Sunday. "Agreements have been reached that the document does not count assistance provided before its signing," Shmyhal said in a Telegram post. Sign up here. Shmyhal, who was in the United States last week for the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, said that there was "a good progress" on the agreement after meeting U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. "Most important - we have clearly defined our red lines, the agreement must comply with European obligations and not contradict the Constitution and legislation of Ukraine," he said. He added that legal teams were working on the document. U.S. National Security Adviser Mike Waltz said on Sunday the deal "is going to get done." The two sides signed a memorandum on April 18 as an initial step towards clinching an agreement on developing mineral resources in Ukraine, a deal promoted by U.S. President Donald Trump that has proven elusive. Although both had been poised to sign a deal for cooperation on natural resources in February, it was delayed after an angry encounter in the Oval Office between Trump and Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskiy. https://www.reuters.com/world/past-us-aid-ukraine-not-included-minerals-deal-kyiv-says-2025-04-28/

2025-04-28 05:04

Euro's climb could curb earnings by 2-3%, analysts say Companies have already flagged FX risk in Q1 earnings Firms treading carefully in seeking forex protection LONDON, April 28 (Reuters) - The euro has unexpectedly surged since U.S. President Donald Trump's big tariffs announcement, which is likely to shave at least a couple of percentage points off European company earnings, adding to the impact of the levies themselves. While economists usually expect countries' currencies to weaken when hit by tariffs, limiting the damage somewhat, the opposite has happened since Trump's April 2 bombshell triggered market chaos and sent the safe-haven dollar tumbling. Sign up here. The euro, also lifted by a seismic shift in Germany towards heavy spending, has climbed about 10% since the start of March and touched a record high on a trade-weighted basis - a key metric for the European Central Bank. Half of that gain has come in April, putting the currency on track for its strongest month since late 2022 . That's bad news for the bloc's export-reliant economy, however, where companies in the STOXX 600 index derive 60% of their revenues from abroad, of which the U.S. accounts for nearly half, Goldman Sachs estimates. "If you have much weaker growth and a much stronger euro, that's a bit of a double whammy for Europe," said Emmanuel Cau, head of European equities strategy at Barclays. Historically, a sustained 10% rise in the euro shaves 2-3% off corporate earnings, said BNP Paribas chief equity strategist Dennis Jose. That will only add to the uncertainty with tariffs already weighing on the first-quarter earnings outlook. Export heavyweight Germany, the bloc's biggest economy, could suffer "a slight recession" in 2025, Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said last week, while the International Monetary Fund has cut its growth forecast for the bloc as a whole for this year and next. DEEPER PAIN With some banks expecting the euro to rise to $1.20 this year, the pain could be deeper, and companies are already ringing alarm bells in their first-quarter earnings commentary. Even before the latest leg of euro strength, Unilever's (ULVR.L) , opens new tab first-quarter turnover declined as currency impact helped offset sales growth. Europe's most valuable company SAP (SAPG.DE) , opens new tab predicts that for every 1 cent rise in the euro, its annual revenue could decline by around 30 million euros ($34.05 million). L'Oreal (OREP.PA) , opens new tab estimated that sustaining the $1.15 level the euro touched last week for the full year could knock as much as 2.9% off its net sales. For companies the risk also dents their competitiveness, where the bloc desperately needed a boost even before all the tariff-related turmoil. "We're an exporting continent, and what it means is that net -net you will see less demand," said ING's chief economist Marieke Blom. She expects euro zone growth to suffer even as the strength of the currency supports consumers, lowering costs for imports including energy. One big weak spot is automakers. Cars are a key European export, and they faced pressure from Chinese competitors even before they were hit by an additional U.S. tariff. Since Trump's inauguration, European auto and part stocks (.SXAP) , opens new tab have slumped some 8%, compared with a less than 1% fall in the STOXX 600. Investors in European equities already spooked by tariffs said currency strength was another reason for caution. Frederique Carrier, RBC Wealth Management's head of investment strategy in the British Isles and Asia, prefers domestically focused European stocks and those that stand to gain from German stimulus. HEDGING CHALLENGE Adding to Europe Inc's problems, it is unclear how far companies can protect themselves from currency swings as they usually do by using derivatives. SAP told analysts much of its free cashflow was hedged at a higher exchange rate, so it would take the real hit in 2026 when those hedges expire. Jackie Bowie, head of EMEA at risk management firm Chatham Financial, said corporate hedging activity has increased this year but that had slowed recently with clients concerned they may end up locking in a worse rate given the speed of the dollar's recent fall. Corporates may also want to hedge for longer, but that is risky as tariffs could quickly change the geographical exposure of their sales as well as production, she said. Most companies use the forwards market to hedge their currency exposures, while bigger firms also use options. One popular options strategy, so-called selling volatility, where companies receive payouts when currencies move within a narrow range, has come to a halt in the last six weeks given all the market swings, said Nomura FX options trader Aadith Raman, while typically accounting for around 25% of FX hedges for users. Nomura is advising companies to increase their use of options given uncertainty around future cashflows, Raman added, as they can structure trades allowing them to buy or sell more euros than initially expected. "The last six weeks have been unprecedented... so people are acting very cautiously," Raman said. ($1 = 0.8810 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/unexpected-euro-surge-adds-europe-incs-tariff-misery-2025-04-28/