2025-11-20 04:24

TOKYO, Nov 20 (Reuters) - The Bank of Japan will raise interest rates at its upcoming December meeting, according to a slim majority of economists in a Reuters poll, pushing through with its aim of normalising monetary policy, backed by the yen's recent decline. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, a proponent of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy who came into office a month ago, has urged the BOJ to cooperate with government efforts to reflate the economy and to tread cautiously in hiking rates. Sign up here. Still, economists say the conditions for a rate hike are falling into place, with the yen's depreciation strengthening the case. The yen this week has tumbled to a 10-month low against the dollar and the weakest level ever against the euro . The BOJ last raised rates by 25 basis points in January. In a November 11-18 poll, 53% of economists, or 43 of 81, expected the Japanese central bank to raise short-term interest rates to 0.75% from 0.50% at its December 18-19 policy meeting. All 69 respondents who provided forecasts predicted borrowing costs would reach at least 0.75% by the end of March. "With the yen sliding, there are also concerns about upside pressure on prices through imported inflation," said Takeshi Minami, chief economist at Norinchukin Research. "We expect an early rate hike, positioned as a fine-tuning of the degree of monetary easing." The yen has been by far the worst-performing G10 currency in recent months, raising the prospect of Japanese authorities intervening to lend it some support. Although Japan logged its first economic contraction in six quarters for July-September, that was largely due to special factors, and underlying private demand remained firm, Minami said. The median prediction for the end-2026 rate was 1.00%, unchanged from last month's survey. After its last policy meeting in October, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda suggested the initial momentum of next spring's annual labour-management wage negotiations was key to rate hike timing. If wage momentum is confirmed and coordination with the Takaichi administration is smooth, a December hike appears very likely, said Harumi Taguchi, principal economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence. In the poll, 81% of economists who answered an extra question, 25 of 31, said they did not think the rate of pay increase in next year's labour-management negotiations would exceed this year's 5.25%. That was up from 76% in September. The median of 28 economists who offered their view on the rate was 4.9%, compared with September's 4.8%. The pace of wage increases will remain high in 2026 backed by strong corporate earnings, said Jun Inoue, senior economist at Mizuho Research & Technologies. "However, with manufacturing profits likely to come in below expectations, overall corporate earnings are seen dipping slightly, and therefore the scale of wage hikes in 2026 is expected to slow compared with 2025," he said. (For other stories from the Reuters global economic poll:) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/boj-set-hike-interest-rates-december-decision-knife-edge-2025-11-20/

2025-11-20 04:20

First officer, Indonesian crew member arrested Vessel believed to be on auto pilot in narrow, busy channel Incident rekindles memories of 2014 ferry disaster that killed more than 300 SEOUL, Nov 20 (Reuters) - South Korea's coast guard launched an investigation on Thursday into a ferry that ran aground overnight, arresting the first officer and an Indonesian crew member for suspected gross negligence, officers said. The two were at the helm of the vessel and are suspected of waiting too long to override the autopilot, allowing the ship to run into an uninhabited island in a busy passage approaching the southwestern port of Mokpo, the coast guard officers said. Sign up here. The 26,546-tonne ship, with a passenger capacity of 1,010 and multiple decks for cargo and passenger vehicles, ran aground as it approached Mokpo from the southern island of Jeju but remained upright as all 267 people on board were rescued. The incident rekindled memories in South Korea of the 2014 Sewol ferry disaster that killed more than 300 people, many of whom were children on a school trip. The Sewol sank in the same area but further out to sea. A coast guard investigator in Mokpo told a briefing that the crew members in the latest incident had given conflicting testimony. "Whatever their testimonies so far, we're looking at gross negligence," Kim Hwang-gyun said. In initial testimony, the first officer said he was watching news on his phone at the time of the incident. Kim said the investigation would include a forensic examination of the crew members' phones, the ferry's navigation data and vessel traffic control in the area. The operator of the ferry, Seaworld, did not answer telephone calls seeking comment at its Mokpo office. Several people received medical attention but no lives were in danger and the ferry sustained minor damage to the hull, other coast guard officials have said. The vessel did not veer off course and was sailing at 22 knots (40 kph) within regulation when it failed to make a turn, Kim, the coast guard investigator, said. Authorities will examine whether the ship was unable to change course in time in the area's narrow navigation channels. Ships are usually steered manually, rather than with autopilot, in the area, a narrow sea channel surrounded by small islands near the shore, according to another coast guard official. "Because it is a narrow coastal area, it is a route that requires careful navigation," Choi Jae-gon said earlier. The crew members were not intoxicated, officials said. The ferry was towed to Mokpo port with its steel surface crumpled and scratch marks on the hull, according to photographs presented by the coast guard. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/stricken-ferry-south-korea-towed-port-authorities-launch-probe-2025-11-20/

2025-11-20 04:19

LAS VEGAS, Nov 19 (Reuters) - McLaren's Formula One leader Lando Norris and other top drivers braced for a cold and wet start to the Las Vegas Grand Prix weekend on Wednesday but hoped for better weather on race night. Forecasts predicted a high likelihood of rainfall in the Nevada city on Thursday and Friday after storms, flash floods and lightning on Wednesday. Sign up here. "From what I'm aware of, I think it's just going to rain on Thursday and a bit into Friday for maybe FP3 (final practice)," Norris told reporters on a chilly media day. "I think it will be an incredibly difficult track in the rain. Yeah, pretty nasty. It's going to be a hell of a challenge. Obviously not a lot of room for error," added the Briton, who leads Australian teammate Oscar Piastri by 24 points with three rounds remaining. "You've got the white lines, all the paint and stuff ... it's pretty horrible at times when you're in the car feeling these kind of things. It will be a pretty insane challenge, I think, if it stays wet." George Russell, winner in Las Vegas last year in a Mercedes one-two, also preferred a dry race. The Briton added, however, that rain always opened up opportunities and Mercedes saw Las Vegas as a clear one. "If we were to pinpoint one race on the calendar where we think we can fight for victory, this would be the race," said Russell, a winner of two races so far this season. "So, out of all the races, I would choose for this one not to be wet." Russell said he expected McLaren to struggle with the circuit characteristics, given their past form in Canada and Baku, but was also open to being surprised even if Red Bull probably had a better chance. Red Bull's four-times world champion Max Verstappen, third overall behind the McLaren pair, said he was not looking forward to lapping in the wet and likely on cold tyres. "I prefer to just have a dry race," said the Dutch driver. "It's already hard enough to get everything working here or understanding at least something. "I mean if the track floods, maybe less practice. That's also not a bad thing." https://www.reuters.com/sports/formula1/f1-drivers-wary-wet-start-vegas-weekend-2025-11-20/

2025-11-20 04:16

BEIJING, Nov 20 (Reuters) - China's rare earth magnet exports in October fell 5.2% from a month earlier, customs data showed on Thursday, down for a second month, but shipments to the United States surged to a nine-month high. Beijing announced earlier this month it would suspend the rare earth export control measures it announced on October 9 for one year as part of its pledge to Washington at a summit in Busan, South Korea, in late October to de-escalate their trade war. Sign up here. For October, outbound shipments from the world's largest producer and exporter of rare earth magnets, used in a wide array of technology from cars to weapons, were 5,473 metric tons last month, data from the General Administration of Customs showed. That was down from 5,774 tons in September but was up 15.8%from 4,725 tons in the same month in 2024. Exports to the U.S. in October, however, jumped by 56.1% from the prior month to 656 tons, the highest since January. China has begun designing a new rare earth licensing regime that could speed up shipments, but it is unlikely to amount to a complete rollback of restrictions as hoped by Washington, industry sources said. By country, Germany, the U.S., South Korea, Vietnam and India were the top five export destinations for Chinese rare earth magnets by volume last month. Year to date, China's rare earth magnet exports totaled 45,290 tons, an annual decline of 5.2%. Exports hit a seven-month high in August. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/china-october-rare-earth-magnet-exports-fall-second-month-us-shipments-surge-2025-11-20/

2025-11-20 03:31

European stocks gain; US stocks turn negative Nvidia's results beat expectations; AI bubble concerns persist Delays, mixed signals in jobs data cloud Fed policy expectations Bitcoin slides on souring risk appetite NEW YORK, Nov 20 (Reuters) - Wall Street reversed early gains on Thursday as a mixed employment report diminished hopes for further easing by the Federal Reserve this year and as worries resurfaced over inflated tech valuations, unassuaged by Nvidia's better-than-expected earnings report. All three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower, with weakness in artificial intelligence-related momentum stocks dragging the tech-heavy Nasdaq down the most. Benchmark Treasury yields dipped and bitcoin tumbled, offering further signs of market participants' souring risk appetite. Sign up here. Chipmaker and AI darling Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab posted its hotly anticipated results after Wednesday's closing bell, delivering consensus-beating earnings and stronger-than-expected forward guidance, which initially soothed fears over inflated valuations in the sector. But jitters over inflated tech stock prices returned as the session progressed, resulting in the Nasdaq's widest one-day swing since April 9, a difference of 4.9 percentage points. "There was a lot of anticipation about Nvidia and it was a good report," said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at GLOBALT in Atlanta. "But the other questions are still there: What is happening with inflation? Employment? What is the Fed going to do? There's still confusion about tariffs." "People just aren't done selling yet," Martin added. "The market is adjusting, this is what an adjustment process looks like." U.S. employment data, unavailable throughout the six-week federal government shutdown, reported more jobs than expected, but a surprising uptick in the unemployment rate suggested a softening in labor market conditions. A separate report showed ongoing jobless claims hitting their highest level in nearly four years. But the September jobs report is stale, and because of the decision to combine the October and November reports, the U.S. Federal Reserve will have just one month of dated employment numbers to inform its rate decision at next month's policy meeting. Financial markets are pricing in a 39.8% likelihood that the central bank will implement its third interest rate cut of the year at the meeting, down from about 50% at the same time last week and a near certainty a month ago, according to CME's FedWatch tool. But not everyone agrees. "The Fed is going to have to go on its own guts, and from a contrarian viewpoint, I believe that they will cut by 25 basis points," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. "The rhetoric that we're hearing from a lot of Fed members is just playing it safe," Cardillo added. "But I think the dovish members are probably going to win, and they are going to be right." FROM RALLY TO SELLOFF The CBOE Market Volatility index (.VIX) , opens new tab, considered a barometer of investor anxiety, closed at its highest level since late April. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 386.51 points, or 0.84%, to 45,752.26, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 103.40 points, or 1.56%, to 6,538.76 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 486.18 points, or 2.15%, to 22,078.05. European shares gained following Nvidia's earnings beat but pared their advance amid renewed uncertainty regarding the Fed's monetary policy path. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 9.01 points, or 0.92%, to 968.20. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index rose 0.4%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab rose 8.72 points, or 0.39%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab rose 9.58 points, or 0.70%, to 1,369.89. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed higher by 0.8%, at 703.56, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab rose 1,286.24 points, or 2.65%, to 49,823.94. U.S. Treasury yields dropped in the wake of the mixed employment data as investors assessed the probability of further easing from the Fed before the year end. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 3.1 basis points to 4.1%, from 4.131% late on Wednesday. The 30-year bond yield fell 1.9 basis points to 4.7328% from 4.752% late on Wednesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 4.4 basis points to 3.554%, from 3.598% late on Wednesday. The dollar firmed as the jobs data tempered monetary policy expectations. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.16% to 100.25, with the euro down 0.1% at $1.1525. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.22% to 157.49. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin fell 4.44% to $86,514.72. Ethereum declined 4.85% to $2,843.98. Oil prices initially got a boost from a bigger-than-expected draw on U.S. crude stockpiles, but reversed those gains amid the push for a U.S.-brokered end to Russia's war on Ukraine. U.S. crude dipped 0.55% to settle at $59.14 per barrel, while Brent settled at $63.38 per barrel, down 0.2% on the day. Gold prices inched lower as investors assessed the delayed jobs report. Spot gold fell 0.06% to $4,078.15 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.18% to $4,070.50 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2025-11-20/

2025-11-20 02:34

BEIJING, Nov 20 (Reuters) - China imported no soybeans from the U.S. for a second straight month in October even as total imports surged to a record high on purchases from South America, with buyers aiming to avert supply disruptions amid trade tensions with Washington. Data from China's General Administration of Customs on Thursday showed U.S. soybean imports in October fell to zero from 541,434 metric tons a year earlier. Sign up here. The decline followed China's imposition of high tariffs on U.S. soybeans earlier in the year and the depletion of previously harvested U.S. supplies, or old-crop beans. China is the world's biggest soybean importer. In contrast, arrivals from Brazil last month jumped 28.8% year-on-year to 7.12 million tons, representing 75.1% of China's total imports of the oilseed, customs data showed, while shipments from Argentina rose 15.4% to 1.57 million tons, making up one-sixth of the total. China's overall soybean imports hit 9.48 million metric tons in October, a record for the month. From January to October, China imported 70.81 million tons from Brazil, up 4.5% year-on-year, and 4.46 million tons from Argentina, up 23.9% year-on-year. Despite the recent drop in arrivals, earlier purchases in 2025 lifted year-to-date imports of American beans to 16.82 million tons, an increase of 11.5%, data showed. After largely shunning U.S. soybeans for months during the tense trade standoff between Washington and Beijing, China has stepped up purchases following late-October talks between the two countries' leaders in South Korea. State-run grain buyer COFCO has led the buying, booking more than 1 million tons of U.S. soybeans since late October, according to U.S. Department of Agriculture data. Markets are now watching for additional large Chinese purchases to meet the 12-million-ton year-end target announced by the White House. China has not yet confirmed the figure. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-imports-no-us-soybeans-second-month-brazil-arrivals-up-29-2025-11-20/