2026-01-15 07:05

LONDON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Simultaneous geopolitical flare‑ups in Venezuela, Iran and the Black Sea have pushed oil prices to a three‑month high, creating a treacherous environment for investors even as a large supply glut still looms over the market. Brent crude opened the year at $61 a barrel before slipping below $60 after U.S. President Donald Trump shocked the world by ousting Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The decline reflected expectations that Washington would quickly restore oil output and exports in a country sitting on the world’s largest proven reserves. Sign up here. However, once the scarce details surrounding U.S. plans started trickling out, oil markets became somewhat less bearish. Then came the protests in Iran and Trump’s threats to intervene in support of demonstrators facing a deadly crackdown. This situation helped push up prices 9% in a week to over $66 a barrel. While regime change in Tehran could eventually result in more crude coming onto the open market, the immediate risk is supply disruption in an already volatile and unpredictable environment. Adding to tensions in the Middle East and beyond, drones attacked two oil tankers in the Black Sea on Tuesday, including one chartered by U.S. energy major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab , as they approached a Russian coastal terminal that handles most of Kazakhstan's crude exports. The perpetrators remain unconfirmed. The strikes on Western‑operated tankers followed the U.S. seizure of a Russian‑flagged vessel in the Atlantic last week, increasing the risk that more oil supplies could be drawn into the conflict. And those supplies could be enormous. Combined oil exports from Venezuela, Iran and the Black Sea reached 4.6 million barrels per day in 2025 - about 4.5% of global supplies. While energy markets have become less quick to price in geopolitical risk in recent years, this is a figure traders simply cannot ignore. BACK TO HORMUZ Among all these geopolitical risks, the biggest remains Iran, and more specifically the potential for the conflict to threaten flows through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway near Iran through which nearly 20% of global oil and gas is shipped. Tehran is unlikely to jump to this “nuclear option”, however, as doing so would cut off its own crude exports and would likely trigger a rapid response from the U.S. and regional states. That was probably the regime’s calculus during last year’s 12‑day Israel‑Iran war. Still, Iran has other options, such as targeting regional U.S. allies. While Tehran’s strike on a U.S. base in Qatar in June was a non-event met by a drop in oil prices, a repeat now could have a very different impact on the market. Remember that in 2019 an Iranian drone attack crippled Saudi Arabia’s Abqaiq processing facility, knocking out 5% of global supplies for several weeks and causing a sharp price spike. FORGET THE GLUT? While the 9% move over the past week is notable, crude prices still remain within the fairly narrow band they have traded in for months. So why hasn’t 2026’s burst of geopolitical tensions caused a more dramatic increase? Primarily because it is coming just as global crude supplies appear to be rising sharply, threatening to outpace demand in the coming years. The U.S. Energy Information Administration expects , opens new tab global inventories to build by an average of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2026. Indeed, the volume of oil being transported in tankers has risen significantly in recent months to around 1.3 billion barrels, the highest since mid-2020, when global consumption cratered due to COVID-19 lockdowns, according to analytics firm Kpler. So-called “oil on water” typically rises when supply is outstripping demand. Of course, around one quarter of these volumes currently originate from Iran, Russia and Venezuela, meaning these are sanctioned supplies that would be expected to take longer to find buyers. But the figure remains elevated regardless, and there are early signs of rising crude and product inventories on land as well. To complicate the picture further, the oil price curve implies traders are not anticipating a significant build. Prompt Brent crude prices have in recent weeks shifted into a structure known as backwardation, meaning they are trading at a premium to contracts for delivery toward the end of 2026. Prompt prices need to be lower than future prices to make storage profitable, a structure known as contango. The disconnect between the physical market and the price curve likely reflects the persistent visibility issues into the so-called “shadow fleet” of tankers transporting large volumes of sanctioned oil as well as China’s opaque storage. But on top of that, traders must now also speculate about the potential outcomes of complex, rapidly evolving political situations in three key oil‑exporting regions - and then determine the likely impact on supplies. Investors thus face a bewildering range of possible outcomes, meaning prices will likely remain rangebound until at least some of the questions hanging over markets are answered. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab (The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters.) https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/oil-traders-wrestle-with-geopolitical-trifecta-elusive-glut-2026-01-15/

2026-01-15 06:55

Museveni faces challenge from singer Bobi Wine Government blames opposition for security crackdown Voting delayed in some places due to machine failures - Ugandan media KAMPALA, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Ugandans voted in a tense national election on Thursday after an often violent campaign and internet shutdown, with President Yoweri Museveni seeking to extend his rule into a fifth decade. Museveni told reporters after casting his ballot in western Uganda that he expected to win 80% of the vote "if there's no cheating", dismissing the prospect of an upset victory by popular singer Bobi Wine. Sign up here. The election is widely seen as a test of the 81-year-old leader's political strength and ability to avoid the kind of unrest that has rocked neighbours Tanzania and Kenya as speculation mounts about his eventual succession. He has campaigned on a slogan of "protecting the gains", vowing to maintain peace and lift Uganda into middle-income status. Wine, who is 43 and nicknamed the "Ghetto President" for his humble origins, has appealed to young people angry about scarce economic opportunities in a country where the average age is just over 16. Voting took place in the capital Kampala amid a heavy police presence. Some polling stations did not open on time because biometric voter verification machines were not working. Museveni said the cause of this was being looked into. Casting his ballot in the Kasangati township, Ronald Tenywa, a 45-year-old university researcher, complained that political leaders "cling on for a long time". “If we vote for someone who cares, things will be better for Uganda,” he said, without specifying for whom he was voting. The authorities cut internet access across the country on Tuesday to curb what they called misinformation about the election. Many Ugandans turned to an offline messaging app launched by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey. HUNDREDS ARRESTED, AT LEAST ONE KILLED DURING CAMPAIGN Security forces have repeatedly opened fire at Wine's campaign events, killing at least one person and arresting hundreds of his supporters. Museveni's government has said the security forces' actions were a justified response to what it called lawless conduct by opposition supporters. Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, said while voting that Ugandans should protest non-violently if the election is rigged. There were no signs of unrest through the morning. The United States denounced Museveni's last election victory in 2021 - when he defeated Wine with 58% of the vote - as neither free nor fair. Similar criticism from U.S. President Donald Trump's administration is unlikely after U.S. diplomats were instructed last July not to comment on the integrity of foreign elections. MUSEVENI IS A STRATEGIC PARTNER OF THE WEST Besides Wine, six other opposition candidates are challenging Museveni - Africa's third-longest-ruling head of state. Voters will also choose more than 500 members of parliament. Polls are due to close at 4:00 p.m. with results expected to be announced within 48 hours. Museveni came to power at the head of a rebellion in 1986 and has changed the constitution twice to remove age and term limits. As president, he has positioned Uganda as a strategic partner of Western nations, sending troops to regional hotspots such as Somalia and taking in millions of refugees. Economic growth, traditionally reliant on agriculture and tourism, is widely expected to surge into double digits when crude oil production from fields run by France's TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab and China's CNOOC (600938.SS) , opens new tab begins this year. Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, as his successor, but the president has denied grooming him for the role and his status as heir apparent is opposed by some within the ruling party, analysts say. Juliet Zawedde, an 18-year-old first-time voter in Kampala, said any succession should happen democratically. "In Africa, too many people in government promote their family members," she said. "They need to give chances to others." https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/uganda-vote-tense-election-clouded-by-succession-questions-2026-01-15/

2026-01-15 06:54

HARARE, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Caledonia Mining Corporation (CALq.L) , opens new tab, plans to spend $132 million this year to launch development of what, once operational, will be Zimbabwe's largest gold mine, the company announced on Wednesday. Miners are riding a wave of record bullion prices to expand output. Spot gold prices hit another record high of $4,639.48 an ounce early on Wednesday, fuelled by escalating tensions in Iran, concern over the Federal Reserve's autonomy and softer inflation readings that boosted rate cut bets. Sign up here. Caledonia said in a production update that the planned spending, part of a $162.5 million total capital expenditure programme for 2026, was subject to board approval and availability of funding. Caledonia, which already operates the 80,000-ounce-per-year Blanket mine in Zimbabwe, plans to develop the Bilboes mine at a projected total capital cost of $584 million. Production from the new mine is expected to begin in late 2028, with steady-state annual output of 200,000 ounces anticipated from 2029 for an initial period of 10 years. On Thursday, Caledonia announced a private placement of $125 million in convertible bonds to institutional investors. The debt, due to mature in January 2033, will mostly fund the Bilboes mine development, it said. The company has said it plans to fund the Bilboes project through a mix of non-recourse senior debt, contributions from existing operations as well as specialised financing methods such as streaming, where investors provide cash in return for future metal supply. Caledonia's expansion plans received a boost last month when Zimbabwe's government reversed plans to double the gold royalty rate and change the tax treatment for capital expenditure. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/caledonia-plans-spend-132-million-zimbabwes-biggest-gold-mine-this-year-2026-01-14/

2026-01-15 06:49

Carney's visit to China first by a Canadian PM since 2017 Trade and tariffs expected to dominate official talks China, Canada looking to repair ties BEIJING, Jan 15 (Reuters) - China praised on Thursday a visit to Beijing this week by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, calling it "pivotal" in work to recalibrate ties following months of intense re-engagement. The remarks by China's top diplomat Wang Yi were made in a meeting with Canadian counterpart Anita Anand, who is part of Carney's delegation on the first visit by a Canadian prime minister since 2017. Sign up here. "This marks the Canadian prime minister's first visit to China in eight years, representing a pivotal and landmark moment for our bilateral relations," Wang said. China is willing to deepen cooperation with Canada while eliminating "interference", Wang added, but stopped short of specifying the source of the interference. In turn, Anand praised the behind-the-scenes work in organising Carney's approaching meetings with China's leaders to "ensure those meetings are a success", the Canadian prime minister's office said in a statement. WARMING TIES Since a positive encounter between Carney and Chinese leader Xi Jinping in South Korea last year, the countries have evinced a common desire to turn the page on periods of tension that have roiled ties since 2017. The most recent strain was after former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's government set tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles in 2024, following similar U.S. curbs. China retaliated last March with tariffs on more than $2.6 billion of Canadian farm and food products, such as canola oil and meal, leading to a slump of 10.4% in Chinese imports of Canadian goods in 2025, shown in customs data on Wednesday. Re-engagement with China has also been fuelled by a push to diversify export markets after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on Canada last year and suggested the longtime U.S. ally could become his country's 51st state. Efforts to strike up new dialogue gathered pace since Carney took the helm last year, with top officials of both sides setting up meetings and telephone calls that paved the way for the leaders' October meeting in South Korea. CHIEF CAUSE OF TENSION Chinese state media had blamed the Trudeau government's policies to contain China in lock step with the United States as the chief cause of tension. "It was pretty tough watching that previous administration," said Jacob Cooke, chief executive of Beijing-based WPIC Marketing + Technologies, a Canadian company what worked with garment firms Arcteryx and Lululemon on their China launch. "We know Carney has got a lot of business experience, and he’s been to China many times," Cooke told Reuters. "So from the business community's perspective, we’re very optimistic, we’re confident." Since arriving in Beijing on Wednesday, Carney has met senior executives of Chinese business groups such as EV battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) (300750.SZ) , opens new tab and China National Petroleum Corp (CNPET.UL). He has also met officials of smart wind turbine maker Envision Energy, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China , investment firm Primavera Capital Group and e-commerce titan Alibaba (9988.HK) , opens new tab. Carney is set to meet Premier Li Qiang later on Thursday and Xi on Friday. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-canada-move-reset-ties-carney-visits-2026-01-15/

2026-01-15 06:47

JAKARTA, Jan 15 (Reuters) - Indonesia's military-backed forestry task force has threatened legal action against dozens of plantation and mining companies refusing to pay hefty fines for operations in forest areas that authorities deem illegal. Goodhope Group, part of Sri Lankan conglomerate Carson Cumberbatch (CARS.CM) , opens new tab, and Singapore-based Musim Mas Group were among companies that did not attend when summoned, the task force said in an Instagram posting. Sign up here. The unprecendented crackdown since last year targeting oil palm plantations and mines has unnerved the industry, buoying global palm prices for fear it will hit output, and more recently, triggering rallies in the prices of metals like tin. "For companies that still object, those that fail to appear for summons or continue unauthorised activities in forest areas, the task force will take more progressive legal action to ensure the state's sovereignty," spokesperson Barita Simanjuntak said. The task force has taken over 8,800 hectares (21,800 acres) of mining areas turning out items such as nickel, coal, quartz sand and limestone, and palm planations across 4.1 million hectares (10.1 million acres), or roughly the size of the Netherlands, it said in Wednesday's statement. As many as 25 of the 32 mine companies and 29 of the 83 plantation firms summoned to pay fines have objected, failed to attend or sought rescheduling, it said. Seven mining and 54 palm oil companies have paid or agreed to pay fines of 9.3 trillion rupiah ($552 million), the task force added. Companies that complied include the palm oil units of conglomerate Salim Group (IFAR.SI) , opens new tab which paid fines equivalent to $136 million, Best Agro Group, which forked over $98 million in fines, and $57 million by a unit of Sampoerna Agro (SGRO.JK) , opens new tab. Astra Agro Lestari (AALI.JK) , opens new tab also paid a fine of $34 million, the task force added in the Instagram post. Astra Agro Lestari said on Thursday its operations remained normal and do not bear significant impact, adding the company abides by the government's policy on overlapping land claims. Goodhope and Musim Mas face fines of $107 million and $20 million, respectively. They did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Authorities have assessed potential fines of 109.6 trillion rupiah for palm oil companies and 32.63 trillion rupiah for mining companies, for operations in forest areas, Attorney General Sanitiar Burhanuddin, one of the leaders of the task force set up by President Prabowo Subianto, said last year. ($1=16,855.0000 rupiah) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/indonesia-vows-action-against-laggards-forestry-fines-2026-01-15/

2026-01-15 06:35

TSMC's record profit boosts tech sector BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley surge on profits Oil breaks rising streak as Trump moderates Iran message Gold retreats from previous days' highs Positive jobs surprise boosts dollar Jan 15 (Reuters) - Winning results from chipmaker TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab and major banks bounced Wall Street higher after two days of losses on Tuesday, while gold fell from recent highs as U.S. jobless data boosted the dollar and President Donald Trump moderated ‌his message about a deadly crackdown on protests in Iran. Taiwan's TSMC (2330.TW) , opens new tab, the world's biggest producer of advanced AI chips, posted a forecast-smashing 35% jump in fourth-quarter profit, sending its U.S.-listed shares up 5%. Sign up here. Financial firms joined the earnings party. Investors rewarded BlackRock (BK.N) , opens new tab for beating analyst forecasts with a 6% rise in the global asset management leader's share price. Goldman Sachs gained 5% and fellow investment bank Morgan Stanley rose 6% after both reported rising quarterly profits, helped by busy dealmaking. Investors had worried tech valuations "were getting a little too far ahead of themselves," ‌said Alan Lancz, president of Alan B. Lancz & Associates Inc., an investment advisory firm, based in Toledo, Ohio. "That's been kind of squashed this morning with the news from Taiwan Semiconductor." According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 0.26%, to end at 6,944.57 points, while the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab gained 0.25%, to close at 23,530.02. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 0.60%, to 49,446.23. "We are at the very beginning of the earnings season and so far so good," ‍said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. The tech tide had lifted Dutch chip equipment maker ASML (ASML.AS) , opens new tab, a major TSMC customer, which in turn pushed European shares (.STOXX) , opens new tab back towards record levels. IMMEDIATE RISK SOFTENS Oil prices settled 4% lower, breaking a five-day streak of gains sparked by Trump's threat of intervention in Iran, a member of the Organization of the ⁠Petroleum Exporting Countries. "While the situation remains fragile, the immediate risk premium has softened but is unlikely to go away given the continued risk of a disruption," Saxo ‍Bank analyst Ole Hansen said. Brent futures settled down $2.76 or 4.15%, at $63.76 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell $2.83, or 4.56%, to $59.19. Gold, which thrives as a safe haven in geopolitical and ‌economic uncertainty, ‌as well as in low-interest-rate environments, declined. Its price fell 0.15% to $4,613.37 an ounce, a day after hitting a record $4,642.72. In an interview with Reuters on Wednesday, Trump addressed his administration's pursuit of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, which has been another source of investor consternation. Trump said he had no plans to fire Powell, who is facing a Justice Department criminal investigation. "Right now, we're (in) a little bit of a holding pattern with him, and we're going to determine what to do. But I can't get into it. ⁠It’s too soon. Too early," Trump said. JOBS ⁠SURPRISE BOOSTS DOLLAR The dollar rose to a six-week high on news that the number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week, bolstering expectations the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates on hold for several months. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, including the yen and the euro, reached 99.49, the highest since December 2. The euro reached ‍as high as $1.1592, the lowest since December 2. The index was last seen 0.24% higher at 99.32, with the euro down 0.24% at $1.1614. Reports on manufacturing in New York State and the Mid-Atlantic region were also stronger than expected. U.S. Treasury yields were mostly higher after the data flurry. The benchmark 10-year notes were last yielding 4.162%, from 4.14% late on Wednesday. Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee said the U.S. central bank should focus on getting inflation down as there is ample evidence of job market stability. Kansas City Fed ‍President Jeff Schmid said inflation was running "too hot" while San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said that incoming economic data looks promising despite uncertainties and continued risks to both the Fed's inflation and employment mandates. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2026-01-15/