2025-04-14 12:17
Sector affected by sluggish demand in U.S., China Overall gem and jewellery exports fall 11.7% U.S. tariffs cause March export bump but create headwinds MUMBAI, April 14 (Reuters) - India's exports of cut and polished diamonds plummeted to their lowest level in nearly two decades in the 2024/25 fiscal year, which ended in March, on sluggish demand from the United States and China, a leading trade body said on Monday. India is the world's largest cutting and polishing hub, handling nine out of every 10 diamonds processed globally. But it is sensitive to economic uncertainty - particularly in the U.S., its biggest market. Sign up here. Cut and polished diamond exports, which usually account for nearly half of overall gem and jewellery shipments, fell 16.8% to $13.3 billion year-on-year, the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC) said in a statement. The slump dragged down overall gem and jewellery exports by 11.7% to $28.5 billion - a four-year low - from $32.28 billion the previous year. The lower demand for polished diamonds also prompted Indian processors to reduce imports of rough diamonds by 24.3% to $10.8 billion, the trade body said. Gems and jewellery exports rose by 1% year-on-year in March, however, to $2.56 billion, the GJEPC said, as exporters ramped up shipments ahead of announced U.S. tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump initially planned to place a 27% tariff on imported Indian goods from April 9 as part of duties targeting dozens of countries, but then declared a 90-day pause on the measure. "U.S. buyers were loading up in March before the tariffs kicked in. Indian exporters were also rushing to ship out U.S. orders first, so they wouldn't get hit with those extra costs," said Shaunak Parikh, vice-chairman of GJEPC. India's gems and jewellery exports are unlikely to recover this year, one major Mumbai-based exporter told Reuters, as the U.S. tariffs have roiled global markets and shaken buyer confidence. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indias-polished-diamond-exports-hit-two-decade-low-industry-group-says-2025-04-14/
2025-04-14 12:05
LONDON, April 14 (Reuters) - OPEC cut its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast on Monday, citing the impact of data received for the first quarter and trade tariffs announced by the U.S., and also reduced its global economic growth forecasts for this year and next. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, in a monthly report, said world oil demand will rise by 1.30 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025, down 150,000 bpd from last month's forecast. Sign up here. OPEC also lowered its forecasts for world economic growth this year and next. "The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year, however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty to the short-term global economic growth outlook," OPEC said in the report. OPEC's oil demand view is still at the higher end of industry forecasts and it expects oil use to keep rising for years, unlike the International Energy Agency, which sees demand peaking this decade as the world switches to cleaner fuels. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-cuts-2025-global-oil-demand-growth-forecast-citing-us-tariffs-2025-04-14/
2025-04-14 12:02
BEIJING, April 14 (Reuters) - No country should bypass international laws to authorise resource exploration in the seabed, China's foreign ministry said on Monday, following a report of U.S. plans to stockpile deep-sea metals to counter China's dominance in the sector. The Trump administration is drafting an executive order to enable stockpiling of deep-sea metals found on the Pacific Ocean seabed to counter China's dominance of battery minerals and rare earth supply chains, the Financial Times reported on Saturday, citing people familiar with the matter. Sign up here. The stockpile would "create large quantities ready and available on U.S. territory to be used in the future," in case of a conflict with China that might constrain imports of metals and rare earths, the report said. China has placed some rare earth elements under export restrictions in retaliation to U.S. President Donald Trump's steep tariffs on Chinese goods, potentially cutting the U.S. off from critical minerals vital to everything from smartphones to electric car batteries. Following the report, the Chinese foreign ministry said that under international law, the seabed and its resources "are the common heritage of mankind." "Exploration and exploitation of mineral resources in the international seabed area must be conducted in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and within the framework of the International Seabed Authority," the ministry said in a statement. China produces around 90% of the world's refined rare earths, a group of 17 elements used across the defense, electric vehicle, clean energy and electronics industries. The U.S. imports much of its rare earths, which come largely from China. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-urges-us-follow-international-law-reported-deep-sea-metals-stockpile-plan-2025-04-14/
2025-04-14 11:59
LAUNCESTON, Australia, April 14 (Reuters) - As U.S. President Donald Trump ratcheted up his tariff war on the world, gold kept climbing in lockstep to reach a succession of record highs. The precious metal reached a fresh peak of $3,245.28 an ounce on April 11 and has climbed 28% since hitting a low of $2,536.71 on November 14, shortly after Trump's victory that saw him return to the White House to start his second term in January. Sign up here. In some ways gold is functioning exactly as it should. It is offering investors a safe haven from the chaos that has enveloped many financial markets since Trump's ill-fated "Liberation Day" tariff announcements on April 2. The imposition of massive tariffs on most U.S. trading partners, with the false claim they were reciprocal, sent equities, bonds and some commodities into reverse. Trump's subsequent 90-day partial climb down of the tariffs to a base of 10% on every country, apart from the now 145% imposed on China, has largely failed to soothe nerves and provide the stability that financial markets generally crave. The uncertainty has also led to some serious questions being asked about the role of U.S. Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven asset, with investors questioning whether this role is being undermined by Trump's tariffs. Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields posted their biggest weekly increase in more than two decades last week, ending at 4.478% on April 11, up 8.6 basis points. The nerves over the role of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and U.S. Treasuries as the safest haven are no doubt positive for gold. GOLD HOSTAGE The problem for gold is that it is as much of a hostage to Trump's erratic and inconsistent trade and economic policies as any other asset. If Trump continues his trade war against China, and increases tariffs from the 10% base on other countries after his 90-day pause, then it's likely that gold will continue to rally. But if a compromise with Beijing is worked out that allows both parties to save face, and other countries reach deals with Trump that largely preserve global trade, then the case for gold looks less secure. The dilemma is that working out what is the likely trajectory of Trump's tariff war is at best a guessing game. Perhaps the safest assumption is that when the dust settles the United States is still likely to have the highest average tariffs on imports since the 1930s. This is likely to crimp economic growth and accelerate inflation, but perhaps more in the United States than around the globe. In this case, does gold continue to rally strongly as several investment banks are now predicting, an example being Goldman Sachs lifting its 2025 target to $3,700 an ounce on April 11. Or does the fear trade subside and gold's more traditional drivers of central bank buying and physical demand in China and India come back into play? CHINA PREMIUM Certainly a move away from U.S. Treasuries is likely to drive gold purchases, especially in China, the world's top gold buyer. Chinese consumer demand may also hold up given uncertainty over the outlook for equities, and this dynamic is reflected in the rising premium for spot purchases , which rose to $39 an ounce on April 11, the highest since December 2016 and up from the discount of $16 in the week after Trump's November election win. But unlike China, high gold prices are likely to curb consumer demand in India, the second-biggest buyer of the precious metal. Already there are some signs of consumer stress in India, with the discount for buying gold dropping to an eight-and-a-half year low of $41 an ounce on March 21. It has recovered since then to a discount of $11 an ounce on April 11, but even at this level it is still well below the premium of $16 from Nov. 15, shortly after Trump's victory. If overall gold demand is viewed as a three-legged stool of investor demand, central bank buying, and China and India consumer purchases, currently all three legs are being supported. With the exception of India demand, all legs are also being held by Trump's policies, meaning that while gold is functioning as a safe haven, it's likely to be subject to the same volatility as other assets. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-is-an-uncertain-certainty-amid-trump-tariff-turmoil-russell-2025-04-14/
2025-04-14 11:58
April 14 (Reuters) - Citigroup downgraded its stance on U.S. equities and slashed its S&P 500 index target for this year as it expects tariff uncertainty to hurt corporate America's earnings. Citi joined a string of brokerages, including Goldman Sachs and BofA, in slashing their benchmark index target below the 6000 mark. Sign up here. Citi's current year-end target stands at 5800, below its previous estimate of 6500, while it also cut the index's earnings-per-share(EPS) projection to $255 from $270. "Both tariff assumptions and recent signs of macro slowing trigger the downward revision...(and)some valuation compression is also warranted as a function of policy uncertainty," said Citi analysts in a note late last week. President Trump's constantly evolving tariff policy, including his recent 90-day pause on most imports and exemptions for certain Chinese products, have prompted uncertainty in the financial markets. In a separate note on Monday, the Wall Street brokerage cut its view on U.S. stocks to "neutral" from "overweight" amid elevated valuations and mounting downgrade pressures. "The drivers of “exceptionalism” are fading, both from a GDP and EPS perspective. Tariffs, as they stand, could negatively impact US EPS the most," Citigroup said, adding that global recession concerns "abating for now, but risks remain." The brokerage also upgraded Japan equities to "overweight" from "underweight," and downgraded emerging markets equities to "underweight" from "neutral". Citi also upgraded UK equities to "overweight". On the global equity strategy front, Citi's preferred growth sector is technology, for cyclical sector it is financials, and its preferred defensive is health care. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/citigroup-downgrades-us-equities-neutral-tariff-concerns-2025-04-14/
2025-04-14 11:48
NICOSIA, April 14 (Reuters) - An exploration drill by ExxonMobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab offshore Cyprus has failed to find commercial quantities of natural gas, the island's energy ministry said on Monday. Drilling operations had been completed at the Elektra-1 well in Block 5 of the exclusive economic zone (EEZ) of Cyprus, it said. Sign up here. "Well data and preliminary evaluation work indicate the presence of natural gas in non-commercial quantities," the Ministry of Energy, Commerce and Industry said. ExxonMobil executives had previously described the prospect, based on seismic data assessments, as promising. The drill was conducted by a consortium of ExxonMobil Exploration and Production Cyprus as operator, and with QatarEnergy Internation E&P LLC. According to the operator's early assessment post-drilling, Elektra-1 yielded encouraging results, confirming the existence of a hydrocarbon system and good quality reservoirs. The data collected during the drilling operations was being evaluated to determine the consortium's future plans in Block 5, the energy ministry said. A drillship deployed by the consortium would now move to another block in Cyprus's EEZ to conduct exploration drilling at another well, named Pegasus-1. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/exxonmobil-drill-off-cyprus-fails-find-gas-commercial-amounts-ministry-2025-04-14/
