2025-04-11 04:54
MUMBAI, April 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee leapt higher on Friday, tracking gains in Asian peers as the dollar slumped to a nearly two-year low, with traders expecting volatility to persist as concerns over trade tariffs kept markets on edge. The rupee rose 0.8% to 86 against the U.S. dollar as of 10:15 a.m. IST, up from its close at 86.6875 on Wednesday. Indian financial markets were shut on Thursday for a local holiday. Sign up here. While a 90-day pause on U.S. reciprocal tariffs - for all except China - had sparked a relief rally across markets on Wednesday, worries over the economic impact of tariffs have resurfaced, weighing most heavily on the dollar itself. Although country-specific tariffs have been delayed, the universal 10% tariff rate remains in effect. The dollar index fell to touch a low of 99.7 in Asia trading after slumping 2% the previous day. U.S. equities and bonds also sold off after the relief rally, signalling that investors were exiting U.S. assets, analysts said. Investors have ducked for cover since the U.S. announced reciprocal tariffs. The dollar has faced pressure while safe havens such as the Swiss franc, the Japanese yen and the euro, as well as gold, have benefited. The rupee is currently in "the middle of its recent trading range and it could consolidate between 85.70 and 86.70 in the near term," a trader at a state-run bank said. Meanwhile, dollar-rupee forward premiums fell, with the 1-year implied yield down 6 basis points at 2.27%, pressured by a decline in the dollar-rupee spot rate and higher U.S. bond yields. The 1-year U.S. Treasury yield was up 4 bps at 4.02% and the 10-year yield is on course for its biggest weekly rise since 2001. "Confidence in USD assets does feel shaky and we suspect that another collapse in swap spreads or a too rapid rise in long end yields may prompt the Fed to intervene," DBS Bank said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-gains-ground-alongside-asia-fx-dollars-safe-haven-shine-dulls-2025-04-11/
2025-04-11 04:36
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee Fears of a sharp downturn in the global economy have sent markets convulsing once more, with action focused on currencies and bonds as the escalating U.S.-China trade war has investors throwing out the usual playbook and fleeing dollar-based assets. Sign up here. Stock futures in Europe were pointing to a subdued open but the Swiss franc reached a 10-year high and the yen was its strongest in six months. Gold prices resumed their march to successive record highs and the euro rose to levels not seen since February 2022. King dollar no more, perhaps. After an all-too-brief relief rally that followed U.S. President Donald Trump's temporary retreat from some of his tariff threats, Asian stock markets from Japan to Australia were showing a sea of red. Stock markets in China, the remaining target of Trump's wrath, were nevertheless relatively steady. Relentless selling resumed in the dollar and bonds, with the 10-year note yield rising to 4.444% and on course for its biggest weekly increase since 2001, LSEG data showed. Thirty-year bond yields are set for their biggest weekly jump since at least 1982. This week's volatile reaction in the bond market has called into question Treasury bonds' status as the world's safest asset. So, what are the safe assets now? Apart from the surge in currencies such as the yen and Swiss franc, gold prices have lurched to another record above $3,200 per ounce. The yellow metal's rise shows no signs of stopping as safe haven flows keep on coming. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: Economic events: March inflation data for Germany, Feb GDP estimate for UK, tariff updates Trying to keep up with the latest tariff news? Our new daily news digest offers a rundown of the top market-moving headlines impacting global trade. Sign up for Tariff Watch here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2025-04-11/
2025-04-11 02:57
MUMBAI, April 11 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to rally at open on Friday, lifted by the dollar's slump likely triggered by investors exiting from U.S. assets amid mounting U.S. and China trade frictions. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 86.18 to 86.20 against the U.S. dollar compared with 86.6875 on Wednesday. India's financial markets were off on Thursday. Sign up here. The dollar's slide "will obviously" lend support to the rupee at open, an FX spot trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. It is, however, unlikely that the Indian currency will manage to move past 86, he said. The dollar index slumped 1.94% on Thursday, its biggest single-day fall in over two years, and extended losses during Asian hours, slipping below the key 100 mark. Investors exited U.S. equities on Thursday, reversing a portion of the relief rally sparked by President Donald Trump pausing higher tariff rates on countries other than China. The sell-off extended to longer-dated U.S. Treasuries, with the 10-year yield poised for its biggest weekly rise in more than two decades. Markets are clearly punishing U.S. assets again and the dollar is near a "confidence crisis", ING Bank said in a note. "The 'sell America' scenario is becoming tangible again with Treasuries and U.S. equities under pressure. That can be a very toxic combination for the dollar," ING said. Trump ramping up the tariff battle with China was among the key reasons analysts cited for reducing exposure to U.S. assets. Markets probably feel that the lack of immediate substitutes for some Chinese products means higher inflationary and recessionary risks for the U.S., ING Bank said. Trump has raised tariffs on Chinese imports to an effective rate of 145%, further intensifying the high-stakes trade confrontation between the world’s two largest economies. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.40; onshore one-month forward premium at 18.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 100.22 ** Brent crude futures down 0.6% at $63 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield rises to 4.46% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $544 million worth of Indian shares on April 8 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $135 million worth of Indian bonds on April 9 https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-rally-dollar-plunge-fuelled-by-investor-flight-us-assets-2025-04-11/
2025-04-11 02:44
BEIJING, April 11 (Reuters) - China, Japan and South Korea finance and central bank officials met and discussed the impact of U.S. tariffs on the global and regional macroeconomic situation, China's central bank said on Friday. The People's Bank of China Deputy Governor Xuan Changneng was at the regular ASEAN and China, Japan and South Korea finance and central bank deputies meeting on April 8-9 in Malaysia, according to a statement. Sign up here. At the meeting, China, Japan and South Korea also exchanged views on the economic situation and regional financial cooperation. China's central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, support the smooth operation of financial markets, and consolidate the continued recovery of the economy, the statement said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-japan-skorea-central-bank-deputies-discussed-us-tariffs-2025-04-11/
2025-04-11 02:05
MANILA, April 11 (Reuters) - The Philippine central bank is taking a cautious approach to policy easing this year to avoid overheating the economy and reigniting inflation, which has been on a downward trend, Governor Eli Remolona told Bloomberg TV on Friday. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas resumed its easing cycle on Thursday, cutting its benchmark interest rate (PHCBIR=ECI) , opens new tab by 25 basis points to 5.50% and signaling further reductions to come — in "baby steps" — as it seeks to support the economy amid global uncertainties. Sign up here. "We don’t want to overdo it,” Remolona said. "If we overdo it, then we start to exceed capacity, then inflation comes back. So we want to get to the neutral rate smoothly.” The BSP uses several estimates for the neutral rate — the theoretical level at which monetary policy neither stimulates nor restricts growth — but typically relies on a midpoint, which Remolona said was at around 2%. He also ruled out inter-meeting rate cuts, noting policy decisions are typically made at scheduled meetings, which occur every other month. Four meetings remain this year, with the next set for June 19. Remolona also said the Philippines has not been intervening in the foreign exchange market more than usual this week and was looking at diversifying foreign reserves, not reducing them. "We have the right mix of assets in reserves," Remolona said https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/philippines-central-bank-chief-signals-cautious-path-rate-cuts-2025-04-11/
2025-04-11 01:02
April 10 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday signed into law a bill to overturn a revised rule from the Internal Revenue Service that expanded the definition of a broker to include decentralized cryptocurrency exchanges, according to a statement from the White House. In the last weeks of the Biden administration in December, the IRS updated its crypto tax reporting rule that it had finalized earlier in 2024 to clarify that its new guidelines would also apply to decentralized finance - or DeFi - exchanges. Sign up here. Both the House of Representatives and the Senate in March voted to nullify the revision through the Congressional Review Act, which allows Congress to reverse new federal rules with a simple majority. The cryptocurrency industry had slammed the revised rule, claiming that it was unworkable for DeFi platforms, and called on Republicans to rescind it. Centralized exchanges such as Coinbase (COIN.O) , opens new tab and Kraken act as the intermediary between buyers and sellers, while DeFi exchanges aim to cut out the middleman and allow users to transact directly on a blockchain network, which powers cryptocurrencies. Crypto industry participants argued that because DeFi exchanges don't act as intermediaries, they don't have visibility into who their users are, making it impossible to comply with the IRS rules. The new IRS framework finalized last year aimed to crack down on crypto users who may be failing to pay their taxes, and stemmed from the $1 trillion bipartisan 2021 Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. It required digital asset brokers to send the forms to both the IRS and digital asset holders to assist with their tax preparation. Trump on the campaign trail pledged to be a "crypto president" and courted cash from the industry by promising to promote the adoption of digital assets. In his first week in office, Trump ordered the creation of a cryptocurrency working group tasked with proposing new digital asset regulations, and in March signed an executive order to create a federal stockpile of bitcoin. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-signs-bill-nullify-expanded-irs-crypto-broker-rule-2025-04-11/
