2026-01-13 12:12
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Britain is set to announce a new rail link between the central English city of Birmingham and the northern city of Manchester, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. The report said ministers would make the announcement on Wednesday as part of a plan to upgrade rail links across the north of England. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-announce-new-rail-link-between-birmingham-manchester-ft-says-2026-01-13/
2026-01-13 12:08
Spot gold hits a record high of $4,629.94/oz on Jan 12 Silver hits record high at $86.22/oz on Jan 12 Analysts forecast gold to cross $5,000/oz this year Jan 12 (Reuters) - Gold and silver's upward run has reignited, with bullion topping $4,600 an ounce for the first time and big brokerages predicting $5,000 as a range of factors intensify, boosting the metal's safe-haven cachet. Spot gold traded as high as $4,629.94 per ounce on Monday, while silver climbed to a record of $86.22/oz in the same session. Sign up here. The metal has gained more than 6% in just 13 days of 2026, after breaking through multiple milestones and gaining 64% last year. Major brokerages expect gold to reach $5,000/oz in 2026, anticipating that safe-haven demand amid geopolitical tension, monetary policy easing, ETF inflows and central bank buying will carry forward the momentum from last year. GEOPOLITICAL AND MACRO DRIVERS Gold's record high on Monday was fuelled by concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve after Chair Jerome Powell said the Trump administration had threatened him with criminal indictment. There is also broad political uncertainty stemming from the U.S. seizure of Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro in a military raid, U.S. President Donald Trump's threats to take control of Greenland and Trump weighing up whether to intervene in the unrest in Iran. "Real assets come to the fore in the kind of environment we're looking at," said independent precious metals analyst Ross Norman. "The rules are out the window. Precious metal is reflecting all of that." Gold has also benefited from expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts, which would reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold. "Should current geopolitical risks persist and U.S. rate-cutting expectations remain intact, gold may attempt a more sustained breach of $4,600 in the coming weeks," said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade's chief market analyst. ETF INFLOWS AND CENTRAL BANK BUYING Central bank demand for gold has been elevated for four years and is likely to continue into 2026, alongside strong investment demand, analysts said. China's central bank extended its gold-buying spree to a 14th month in December, bringing its holdings to 74.15 million fine troy ounces. As the gold price notched up record highs 53 times in 2025, annual inflows into physically backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) surged to $89 billion, the largest on record, according to the World Gold Council. Holdings of the largest gold-backed ETFs including New York's SPDR Gold Trust reached 1,073.41 metric tons on December 29, their highest in more than three years. FURTHER MOMENTUM FOR SILVER Silver's 147% gain last year was supported by robust investment demand, its inclusion on the U.S. critical minerals list prompting substantial outflows to stocks in the U.S., refining capacity bottlenecks and persisting structural market deficit. "It's likely that there could be volatility in the market and if things remain as they are, I think prices will be soon pushing towards $90/oz," said ANZ commodity strategist Soni Kumari. A three-digit peak is looking likely for silver this year, consultancy Metals Focus said, as silver's smaller market size amplifies price movements when it benefits from many of the macroeconomic factors driving gold investment. HSBC expects silver to trade between $58 and $88 an ounce in 2026, but warned of a market correction later in the year as supply constraints ease. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/record-start-2026-brings-prospect-5000-gold-into-view-2026-01-13/
2026-01-13 11:58
Jan 13 - What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets Sign up here. The market’s relatively modest reaction to new threats to Federal Reserve independence this week owes much to the torrent of additional information hitting investors. Inflation and corporate earnings updates are coming down the pike on Tuesday. A frenetic news overload since the start of the year has failed to shake Wall Street stocks from record highs, while overseas attention on Iran tensions saw crude oil prices hit their highest in almost two months. Japan's yen and bonds also slid anew on speculation about snap elections there. I'll get into all the market-moving news below, but first check out my latest column, where I look at President Trump's forceful efforts to cut the cost of credit further. And listen to the latest episode of the Morning Bid daily podcast. Subscribe to hear Reuters journalists discuss the biggest news in markets and finance seven days a week. Today's Market Minute * Global central bank officials are planning to release a coordinated statement of support for U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Tuesday, stressing the need for independent central banking, according to two sources. * UBS CEO Sergio Ermotti, who oversaw the Swiss bank's emergency takeover of former rival Credit Suisse, plans to step down in April 2027, the Financial Times reported on Tuesday. * U.S. President Donald Trump said that any countries that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the U.S. * If record-high U.S. stock prices accurately reflect investors' assessment of Trump 2.0, then it's a glowing scorecard for the most interventionist government in decades. But ROI Finance Columnist Jamie McGeever asks how long Wall Street can keep looking the other way. * The post-war system of international laws and norms is on the ropes, but that does not mean the global order is totally dead, argues Hugo Dixon for Reuters Breakingviews. Other countries, especially in Europe, can salvage something of it, particularly if they muscle up. Inflation test focuses Fed row A relatively modest market reaction to new threats on Federal Reserve independence this week owes much to the torrent of additional information hitting investors, with inflation and corporate earnings updates coming down the pike on Tuesday. A frenetic news overload since the start of the year has failed to shake Wall Street stocks from record highs, while overseas attention on Iran tensions saw crude oil prices hit their highest in almost two months and Japan's yen and bonds slid anew on snap election speculation there. Monday's focus on the potential criminal indictment of Fed Chair Jerome Powell knocked the dollar and saw gold hit new records - but the greenback found its feet overnight and gold fell back again. Three reasons are generally cited for the limited market reaction to what Powell himself described as "pretexts" for undermining Fed independence. The first was the scale of pushback from both Powell and former Fed chiefs, echoed by some Republicans in the U.S. Senate and finance leaders around the world. A second is that markets have been braced for this battle already and want to see how the many moving parts interact before staking new positions. And a third is the sheer difficulty in separating the issue from a welter of other major economic and political developments so far in January. With U.S. GDP growth running north of 4% into the end of last year, Tuesday's consumer price update for December will show whether that level of heat is being reflected in prices. Core CPI inflation is expected to pick up a notch to 2.7% from November's peculiarly soft reading and still well above the Fed's target. While two further rate cuts are still baked into futures markets for 2026, the next cut is not fully priced now until late July - perhaps emboldened by the Fed's bristling at political interference, at least for as long as Powell remains in the chair until May. U.S. Treasury yields were calm amid the Fed row on Monday as the week's heavy debt sale schedule got underway, but yields across the curve are edging higher into the CPI release. Two-year yields hit their highest in almost a month and 10-year yields are stalking their highest since September. Aggravating the picture was the renewed rise in oil prices, with U.S. crude at the highest since early November on Iran supply disruption concerns amid U.S. military threats due to Tehran's crackdown on a wave of anti-government protests. President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country doing business with Iran will be subjected to a tariff rate of 25% in the United States. Iran exports much of its oil to China. Having recovered early losses on Monday, U.S. stock index futures are a touch lower again into today's open. The fourth-quarter earnings season also kicks off later, with reports from JPMorgan and Bank of New York Mellon expected to start a bumper quarter for banks' fee income amid a pick-up in deal-making activity late last year. Trump's plans for a credit card rate cap, however, knocked financial stocks on Monday. In high-flying tech, Alphabet briefly hit $4 trillion in market valuation on Monday, as the Google parent's sharpened artificial intelligence focus allayed doubts about its strategy and thrust it back to the forefront of the high-stakes race. Alphabet said the next-generation of Apple's AI models will be based on Google's Gemini under a multi-year deal. Overseas, Japan's markets returned from Monday's holiday to dwell on the prospect of a snap election there as soon as next month. The yen plunged to its weakest since July 2024 after reports Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has told her party's executive of her intention to dissolve parliament's lower house when its new session starts on January 23. Japan's 20-year government bond yield climbed to record highs, with the 10-year yield at its highest since 1999. Yen weakness, however, helped lift the Nikkei stock index more than 3%. Chart of the day As investors await Tuesday's consumer price report, the latest surveys on households' inflation expectations have seen the near-term view of the pace of price rises climbing again - even though longer-term expectations remain steady. At about 3% for three- and five-year horizons, these are not far from the pre-pandemic outlooks, although they remain far above the 2% inflation rate the Fed is trying to target. Today's events to watch * US December consumer prices (8:30 AM EDT), US October new home sales (10:00 AM EDT), US December Federal Budget (2:00 PM EDT); Canada November building permits (8:30 AM EDT) * US corporate earnings: JPMorgan, Bank of New York Mellon, Delta Air Lines * Richmond Federal Reserve President Tom Barkin and St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem speak * US Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds * Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visits China Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2026-01-13/
2026-01-13 11:41
Basmati shipments stall amid Iran unrest and payment risks Trump tariff threat chills India-Iran rice trade Rial crash, forex curbs hit Iranian import payments MUMBAI/NEW DELHI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - India's basmati rice exports to Iran have slowed to a near standstill amid the protests gripping the Gulf country, with suppliers wary of new deals due to the risk of non-payment and potential additional U.S. tariffs, trade officials said. U.S. President Donald Trump said on Monday that any country trading with Iran would face a 25% tariff on its commerce with the U.S., a move exporters say has made Indian suppliers even more reluctant to sign new contracts with Iranian buyers. Sign up here. "The proposed 25% levy under the Trump framework adds an additional challenge to the Indian basmati rice sector," said Akshay Gupta, head of bulk exports at KRBL Ltd (KRBL.NS) , opens new tab, a leading rice exporter. India is Iran's largest rice supplier, with the staple accounting for nearly two-thirds of all Iranian imports from the country. "We're worried about the payments for rice shipped in the last two months," said a New Delhi-based exporter, who declined to be named. "In some cases, buyers report they did not receive the full quantity; in others, they have fled the country because of the ongoing protests," the exporter said. The current protests began last month in Tehran, with shopkeepers condemning the rial currency's free fall. Unrest has spread nationwide amid deepening distress over economic privations arising from rocketing inflation driven by mismanagement and Western sanctions, and curbs on political and social freedoms. Importers have conveyed their inability to honour existing commitments and remit payments to India, creating heightened uncertainty for exporters, Dev Garg, vice president of the Indian Rice Exporters Federation (IREF), said in a statement. India's Ministry of Commerce and Industry declined to comment. Iran previously supplied foreign exchange to food importers at a subsidised rate, but it has now suspended that provision, effectively making imports much more expensive for buyers, said Vijay Setia, a top rice exporter. India's exports to Iran, largely food items such as rice, fell to $1.24 billion in the 2024–25 fiscal year ending March from $3.51 billion in 2018–19, while imports declined to $440 million from a peak of $13.53 billion in 2018–19, Indian government data showed. "Iran's currency has crashed, and exporters are worried whether shipments already sent will be cleared and whether buyers can pay," said Ajay Sahai, director general of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations. Major Indian exports to Iran include basmati rice and pharmaceuticals, while imports consist mainly of fresh and dried fruits. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indias-rice-exports-top-buyer-iran-stall-protests-tariff-worries-2026-01-13/
2026-01-13 11:40
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The pound held onto its gains from the previous day against both the dollar and the euro on Tuesday, with the currency having been a somewhat surprising beneficiary of global geopolitical turmoil. Sterling was last flat on the dollar at $1.3471 having gained 0.47% on Monday as the U.S. currency took a hit from investor concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve. Sign up here. The pound was last at 86.62 pence to the euro, again steady on the day, after the euro had dropped 0.23% on Monday. There is little in the way of economic data this week that could affect the pound. Gross domestic product data is due on Thursday, but investors are largely waiting until next week's jobs and inflation data, which could shape expectations for Bank of England monetary policy. Market pricing reflects expectations of one and likely two rate cuts in the first half of this year, though a quick slowing of inflation could see more monetary easing. Until the data is released, the pound's moves against major peers are largely shaped by events elsewhere, most notably the United States. "It's less to do with UK fundamentals -- which we still think are weak -- it's rather that events elsewhere are providing a distraction from Britain's problems," said Nick Rees, head of macro analysis at Monex Europe. As well as worries about the independence of the Federal Reserve, investors are also digesting a vast amount of political and geopolitical news from around the world. But while that seemed to boost the pound against the euro on Monday, Nomura analysts, who recommend traders buy the euro against the pound, say they think recent developments should support their argument. "Our long EUR/GBP trade is positive exposed to developments that weigh on investor sentiment regarding US assets," they wrote in a Monday note. "The scope for a shift in investment allocations or even a slowing of inflows into the U.S. – whether due to geopolitical risks (over Greenland for example) or concerns about Fed independence – would have positive repercussions for (the euro)." https://www.reuters.com/world/uk/sterling-holds-steady-dollar-stays-under-pressure-2026-01-13/
2026-01-13 11:33
Drones hit tankers near terminal which exports Kazakh oil Ukrainian drone attacked CPC terminal on November 29 Kazakh oil output down 35% in Jan. 1–12, source says MOSCOW/ATHENS, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Four Greek-managed oil tankers were hit by unidentified drones on Tuesday in the Black Sea on the way to load oil at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal off the Russian coast, eight sources told Reuters. It was not immediately clear who was behind the drone attack. Ukraine did not immediately comment on the recent attacks. CPC declined to comment on the attack. Sign up here. A Ukrainian drone on November 29 hit one of three main CPC moorings near the port of Novorossyisk, resulting in oil exports and output in Kazakhstan to fall. Oil and gas condensate output in Kazakhstan plunged by 35% on January 1-12 from December's average, a source familiar with the data told Reuters, mainly due to export constraints via the Black Sea's terminal. Kazakhstan's energy ministry said on Tuesday that CPC continues oil exports via one mooring. One of the tankers, the Delta Harmony, is managed by Greece's Delta Tankers, LSEG data showed, and according to the sources was expected to load Kazakh-produced oil from Tengizchevroil, a unit of U.S. oil major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab Another, Matilda, is managed by Greece's Thenamaris and was expected to load oil from Karachaganak, the sources added. A Thenamaris official confirmed that Matilda was hit by two drones while waiting in ballast condition 30 miles off CPC. "There were no injuries and the ship suffered minor damage to deck structures according to an initial assessment, which is fully repairable. The ship, seaworthy as it is, is now sailing away from the area," the company official said. Delta Tankers did not immediately respond to Reuters' requests for comment. Two sources in maritime security said that a fire reportedly broke out on board and was quickly extinguished. Two more oil tankers, the Freud, managed by Greece's TMS, and Delta Supreme, managed by Delta Tankers, were also hit by drones near the CPC terminal, three of the sources said. The CPC pipeline ships oil to the Black Sea's Yuzhnaya Ozereyevka terminal, close to Novorossiisk in the south of Russia. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/two-oil-tankers-roads-cpc-terminal-hit-by-drones-tuesday-sources-say-2026-01-13/
