2025-11-18 06:55

Fed needs to move slowly with further rate cuts, Jefferson says Focus shifts to US non-farm payrolls data due on Thursday Traders see 46% chance of US interest rate cut in December Nov 18 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell to their lowest levels in more than a week on Tuesday as fading bets on a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next month dented demand ahead of delayed U.S. economic data releases this week. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,039.71 per ounce as of 1213 GMT, after hitting its lowest since November 10 earlier in the session. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for December delivery fell 0.9% to $4,039 per ounce. "Market participants are pricing out U.S. interest rate cuts following more hawkish comments from Fed officials," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. "I would expect gold prices to bottom out soon, as I still see the Fed cutting rates several times over the coming quarters, and central banks' diversification into gold remains strong." Markets have trimmed their bets for a rate cut next month to just over a 46% chance from 67% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. FEDWATCH The longest U.S. government shutdown, which ended last week, led to a halt of official economic data, leaving policymakers and traders flying blind ahead of next month's Fed policy meeting. Traders had hoped the resumption of official data would make the case for a December rate cut, but those hopes faded as more Fed officials last week signalled caution. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that the central bank needed to "proceed slowly" on further rate cuts. Non-yielding gold tends to do well in a low interest-rate environment and during times of economic uncertainties. Investors will be looking to Wednesday's release of minutes from the Fed's last meeting and September non-farm payrolls due on Thursday for further cues. "We still see a longer-term favourable fundamental backdrop for gold. The U.S. economy continues to cool, U.S. interest rates are set to fall and the U.S. dollar should weaken as a result," said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. Elsewhere, spot silver was steady at $50.2 per ounce, platinum was marginally up at $1,534.30, and palladium gained 0.7% to $1,402.73. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-extends-fall-firm-dollar-easing-fed-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-18/

2025-11-18 06:53

AidData finds China's lending to wealthy countries focuses on critical infrastructure, minerals, high tech US received more than $200 billion for 2,500 projects Britain received $60 billion, EU $161 billion AidData says many Western-led financial institutions choose to collaborate with Chinese state-owned creditors HONG KONG, Nov 18 (Reuters) - The United States is the biggest recipient of China's lending activities globally, according to a study which tracked Beijing's credit activities and found it is increasingly lending to higher-income countries over developing countries. The report, published on Tuesday by AidData, a research lab at U.S. university William & Mary, said China's lending and grant giving totalled $2.2 trillion across 200 countries in every region of the world from 2000 to 2023. Sign up here. China has long been seen as a creditor to developing countries through its Belt and Road initiative, but is shifting toward lending to advanced economies — backing strategic infrastructure and high‑tech supply chains in areas such as semiconductors, artificial intelligence and clean energy. Beijing's portfolio size is two-to-four times larger than previous estimates suggest, AidData said, adding that China remains the world's largest official creditor. More than three-quarters of China's overseas lending operations now support projects and activities in upper-middle-income countries and high-income countries. "Much of the lending to wealthy countries is focused on critical infrastructure, critical minerals and the acquisition of high-tech assets like semiconductor companies," said lead author Brad Parks, AidData's executive director. The United States received the most official sector credit from China, more than $200 billion for nearly 2,500 projects and activities, the report said. Chinese state-owned entities are "active in every corner and sector of the U.S.", bankrolling the construction of LNG projects in Texas and Louisiana, data centres in Northern Virginia, terminals at New York's John F. Kennedy International Airport and Los Angeles International Airport, the Matterhorn Express Natural Gas pipeline and the Dakota Access Oil pipeline, AidData said. Beijing has financed the acquisition of high-tech companies, while Chinese state-owned creditors have provided credit facilities for many Fortune 500 companies including Amazon, AT&T, Verizon, Tesla, General Motors, Ford, Boeing and Disney, the report said. The share of lending to low and lower-middle income countries fell to 12% in 2023 from 88% in 2000. Beijing has also cut lending for infrastructure projects in the "Global South", under its Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time it has ramped up its share that supports middle-income and high-income countries to 76% in 2023 from 24% in 2000. The United Kingdom for instance received $60 billion, while the European Union got $161 billion. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/us-is-biggest-recipient-chinese-loans-study-shows-2025-11-18/

2025-11-18 06:37

TOKYO, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Japanese authorities are facing renewed pressure to combat a decline in the yen, driven in part by market bets that dovish new premier Sanae Takaichi will pile pressure on the central bank to go slow in raising interest rates. A weak yen boosts exports but hurts households and retailers by inflating already rising import costs for fuel and food. The dollar has climbed about 5% against the yen since Takaichi won the ruling party's leadership race on October 4. It stood around 155 yen on Tuesday. Sign up here. Here are possible steps the government and the central bank could take: ESCALATE VERBAL INTERVENTION - HIGHLY LIKELY Authorities have recently said they are watching currency rates with a "high sense of urgency" as the yen has been making "one-sided, sharp" moves. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama escalated that tone on Tuesday, saying authorities were "alarmed" over the yen's volatile moves. Last week, she acknowledged that the disadvantages of a weak yen may be more pronounced than its advantages. Analysts say that if the yen makes a sustained break below 155 per dollar and approaches the psychologically important 160 mark, authorities may warn they are ready to take "decisive action" against excessive moves - a sign yen-buying intervention could be nearing. AUTHORITIES SIGNAL CHANCE OF NEAR-TERM RATE HIKE - POSSIBLE After ending a decade-long, massive stimulus last year, the BOJ has raised interest rates twice, the last time to 0.5% in January. It has stood pat since then. The slow pace of policy normalisation has helped keep the yen on a downtrend. If the administration's worries about the demerits of a weak yen grow, Takaichi may signal a more conciliatory stance toward an increase in the BOJ's policy rate to 0.75%. BOJ officials could also lay the groundwork for a near-term rate hike through speeches. BOJ board member Junko Koeda will deliver one on November 20 and board member Asahi Noguchi on November 27. Governor Kazuo Ueda will deliver a speech on December 1. BOJ RAISES INTEREST RATES - POSSIBLE Ueda last month dropped unusually strong signals of a rate hike in December or January next year. While unsuccessful, two board members proposed raising rates in September and October, underscoring growing momentum for a near-term hike. The yen may get some respite if the BOJ meets market expectations and hikes rates either in December or January. But the rebound could prove short-lived if Ueda signals that any further rate increases could be slow to come. JAPAN INTERVENES IN CURRENCY MARKET - HIGHLY UNLIKELY Japan last intervened in the currency market in July 2024 when the yen fell to a 38-year low of around 161.96 to the dollar. The BOJ also raised interest rates to 0.25% that month, causing the yen to strengthen to around 150 per dollar. Such concerted action highlighted the concern then-premier Fumio Kishida had about a weak yen. Takaichi and her reflationist aides have been less vocal in their concern over the currency's slide. Though their approach could change if the yen slides to near 160, the hurdle for intervention could be higher. The weak yen is a reflection of Japan's deeply negative real interest rate, making it hard for Tokyo to make the case that the currency's falls are out of step with fundamentals. Getting Washington's blessing may also be tough as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly signalled that rate hikes are the best way to prop up the yen. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/japans-toolkit-combat-unwelcome-yen-declines-2025-11-18/

2025-11-18 06:34

Nvidia earnings to test AI boom sustainability European STOXX closes at one-month low Home Depot forecasts steeper profit drop, raising consumer health concerns Gold reverses earlier losses NEW YORK, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Wall Street stocks closed sharply lower on Tuesday, extending a selloff prompted in part by the run-up to Nvidia earnings, which could test the artificial intelligence boom amid mounting valuation concerns. All three major U.S. stock indexes ended deep in negative territory, with crude, bitcoin and gold advancing and U.S. Treasury yields dipping as investor risk appetite soured. The S&P 500 and the Dow logged their fourth consecutive daily losses, during which the bellwether S&P 500 has fallen 3.4%. Sign up here. Chipmaker Nvidia's (NVDA.O) , opens new tab quarterly results, expected on Wednesday, will be scrutinized for signs that the AI juggernaut, which has provided the muscle for much of the stock market's recent rally, has staying power or whether the fervor surrounding the technology has created a bubble. In other earnings, home improvement retailer Home Depot (HD.N) , opens new tab forecast a steeper than expected drop in annual profit, raising concerns about the housing market and the health of the American consumer. "Investors are sensing that the tenor of the market has shifted," said Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services in Hammond, Indiana. "They don't necessarily want to be too bullish on tech in case Nvidia doesn't hit the ball out of the park." "We're getting toward the end of a pretty good year, especially if you were a tech investor, and now you're starting to see a bit of a pullback," Carlson added. "(Investors) want to make sure that they protect their gains." Official economic indicators that were unavailable during the longest government shutdown in U.S. history are being released, with the Commerce Department's August report of new orders for U.S. factory-made goods gaining 1.4% as expected. WORLDWIDE SELLOFF DEEPENS The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 498.56 points, or 1.07%, to 46,091.68, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 55.08 points, or 0.83%, to 6,617.33 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 275.23 points, or 1.21%, to 22,432.85. European shares closed at a one-month low, with German stocks hitting a near five-month low as risk appetite continued to sour due to worries over tech valuations and dimming hopes for a December rate cut from the U.S. Federal Reserve. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 11.64 points, or 1.18%, to 976.17. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 1.72%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab fell 39.04 points, or 1.71%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab fell 24.29 points, or 1.75%, to 1,363.56. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed lower by 1.9%, to 701.18, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab fell 1,620.93 points, or 3.22%, to 48,702.98. U.S. Treasury yields fell as falling stock markets bolstered safe-haven demand. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.4 basis points to 4.119%, from 4.133% late on Monday. The 30-year bond yield rose 0.5 basis points to 4.7408% from 4.736% late on Monday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 3.5 basis points to 3.575%, from 3.61% late on Monday. DOLLAR STEADIES, CRYPTO REBOUNDS, GOLD GAINS The dollar held gains against the yen after reaching a fresh 9-1/2-month high, and edged up versus the euro as investors contended with jitters over Japan's fiscal policy and scoured data for signals on the Federal Reserve's next move. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.05% to 99.60, with the euro down 0.09% at $1.1579. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.18% to 155.52. Bitcoin reversed course, gaining 0.99% to $92,715.39 after dipping below $90,000, nearly 30% below its peak. Ethereum rose 3.69% to $3,116.25. Crude prices turned higher as investors assessed the impact of sanctions on Russian oil. U.S. crude gained 1.39% to settle at $60.74 per barrel, while Brent settled at $64.89 per barrel, up 1.07% on the day. Gold reversed its slide, turning losses to gains after touching a one-week low. Spot gold rose 0.64% to $4,070.25 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.12% to $4,063.40 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-18/

2025-11-18 06:30

Leading opposition figures in jail, exile or under charge Lawsuit would ban three opposition parties Ruling party says it is shielding Georgia from figures who would foment war TBILISI, Nov 18 (Reuters) - Just over a year ago, a diverse array of opposition coalitions jockeyed for votes in Georgia’s parliament, with four of them winning seats. Today, of their eight main leaders, all but one are in jail, in exile or facing criminal charges. The ruling party aims to ban the three main opposition groups outright. The slide into one-party rule has shocked many in the tiny South Caucasus country of 3.7 million. In the years following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Georgia appeared a burgeoning democracy, on the fast track to joining the EU and escaping Russia's orbit. Sign up here. But now it is further from the West than at almost any time in its post-Soviet history, according to an assessment from Brussels, which described its democratic institutions as hobbled and its courts under the thumb of the state. This month, the EU declared in a report that Georgia was now a candidate for membership "in name only". The EU ambassador in Tbilisi said Georgia was no longer on the trajectory to join the bloc at all. Senior veterans of Georgian politics and diplomacy who spoke to Reuters about the events of the past few months said it appears as though Georgia is close to a line, beyond which it will be hard for democracy to recover. "We are now five minutes away from one-party dictatorship," said Sergi Kapanadze, a former deputy foreign minister and deputy parliamentary speaker until 2020. 'DEMOCRATISATION MEANS AT SOME POINT YOU WILL LOSE POWER' Natalie Sabanadze, Tbilisi's ambassador to the EU until 2021, said that across decades of often caustic domestic political dispute, there had always been a political consensus that Georgia belongs in the West. That had now been lost. "They know that democratisation, which the EU demands, means accepting that at some point you will lose power," she said of the ruling Georgian Dream party. "They don't want that. And they are basically building a fully-fledged authoritarian regime." Georgian Dream says it is protecting the country from opposition figures who are trying to seize power and foment a catastrophic war with Russia. It is a fear that became palpable after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, which evoked memories among Georgians of Russian tanks rolling into the suburbs of Tbilisi in a humiliating defeat by Moscow in a brief war in 2008. "Georgia is an island of peace in a very difficult geopolitical region," said Nino Tsilosani, a ruling party lawmaker serving as deputy speaker in parliament. "What investors and what businesses need is stability." She accused jailed opposition politicians of trying to plot a coup, charges the opposition parties reject as fabricated to justify a crackdown. Opponents paint Georgian Dream's billionaire founder Bidzina Ivanishvili as the author of the authoritarian shift. Some accuse him of being in league with Russia, where he amassed his fortune in the 1990s. Gia Khukhashvili, who helped launch the party as Ivanishvili's top political advisor before breaking with him in 2013, said it was wrong to view his former boss as subservient to Moscow. Rather, Ivanishvili just sees a "coincidence of interests" between the countries, he said. "He understands that in this ocean of sharks, he needs an older brother. Who is the older brother? It can only be Russia," Khukhashvili said. ECONOMY TURNS TOWARDS RUSSIA, CHINA Located strategically on the Black Sea in a region criss-crossed by oil and gas pipelines, Georgia could, in theory, play a major role in the West's gambit to diversify energy and trade routes away from Russia. After emerging from ethnic conflict and economic collapse that accompanied the fall of the Soviet Union in the 1990s, Georgia experienced rapid growth spurred by investor-friendly policies that accompanied its political turn towards the West. That openness has now reversed swiftly, with foreign direct investment falling over the past two years to levels last seen in the early 2000s. Growth has held up, with a flood of Russian businesses and IT workers into Georgia since the start of war in Ukraine proving a boon to the economy. The World Bank forecasts Georgia's GDP to grow by 7% this year, after 9.4% last year. But construction of a deep-water port on the Black Sea - a potential key transit hub connecting Asia to Europe - has largely stalled since a Western-led consortium was booted from the project. A Chinese company has since won the contract but progress on building the port has been minimal. Meanwhile, Georgia now imports about 45% of its oil from Russia, up from just 8% in 2012, although Tbilisi and Moscow have no diplomatic relations. Ian Kelly, a former U.S. ambassador to Georgia, said the West could have done more to build links with Tbilisi. "We're blowing it," he said. "Georgia has opened the doors to Russia and China." SPEED CHESS In recent weeks, Georgian Dream has undertaken a flurry of measures that look to root out what remains of political dissent. An impending lawsuit at the Constitutional Court will ban the three main opposition parties, while new criminal charges against nine key opposition figures - including jailed former President Mikheil Saakashvili - look sure to keep any potential challengers behind bars for years. Lately, the crackdown has targeted figures close to the ruling party itself, with recent criminal charges levied even against senior government ministers and former top allies of Georgian Dream founder Ivanishvili. The authorities are moving so quickly that Kapanadze, the former deputy speaker, likened the situation to "speed chess", with the opposition trying to stave off checkmate while hoping the government makes tactical mistakes in its haste. Arrests at nightly anti-government protests outside the parliament keep political activists in states of fear, despair and resignation. Dozens are languishing in jail or have been fined for blocking the road. "Georgia has just disappeared, from not just the European table, but from the global stage," said Grigol Gegelia of the Lelo party, which is facing a ban. "We are losing our country." https://www.reuters.com/world/five-minutes-autocracy-how-georgia-u-turned-its-western-path-2025-11-18/

2025-11-18 06:19

Reuters Open Interest (ROI) is your essential source for global financial commentary. LAUNCESTON, Australia, Nov 18 (Reuters) - China's flows of crude oil into storage likely lifted in October as robust imports and domestic output outweighed an increase in refinery processing. China's surplus of crude oil was about 690,000 barrels per day (bpd) in October, up from about 570,000 bpd in September, according to calculations based on official data. Sign up here. The rate at which China has been adding to inventories is increasingly being seen as a key factor in crude oil demand in the world's biggest importer, as well as adding a layer of uncertainty into price forecasts. China's refineries processed 14.94 million bpd in October, an increase of 6.4% from the same month last year, although down from the two-year high of 15.26 million bpd in September, according to data published on November 14 by the National Bureau of Statistics. Crude imports were 11.39 million bpd in October while domestic production was 4.24 million bpd, giving a combined total of 15.63 million bpd of oil available to refiners. Subtracting the refinery processing from the total crude available leaves 690,000 bpd that was available to be added to commercial or strategic storages. China does not disclose the volumes of crude flowing into or out of its strategic and commercial stockpiles, but an estimate can be made by deducting the amount of oil processed from the total crude available from imports and domestic output. It is worth noting that not all of the surplus crude was likely to have been added to storage, with some being processed in plants not captured by the official data. But even allowing for those gaps, it is clear that from March onwards, China was importing crude at a far higher rate than necessary to meet domestic fuel demand. For the first 10 months of the year, the surplus crude amounts to about 900,000 bpd, given that imports and domestic output combined are 15.65 million bpd, while refinery processing amounted to 14.75 million bpd. The surplus has been built up since March and came after refiners made a rare draw on inventories in January and February, when processing rates exceeded available crude by about 30,000 bpd. This was the first time since September 2023 that throughput exceeded the amount of crude from imports and domestic output. PRICE IMPACT The draw on inventories at the start of 2025 came amid rising oil prices, with benchmark Brent futures reaching their highest point so far this year of $82.63 a barrel on January 15, having risen steadily from levels around $70 in early December. Since then crude prices have trended lower, with occasional spikes higher due to geopolitical tensions such as the brief conflict between Israel and Iran in June. Brent ended at $64.20 a barrel on Monday, the mid-point of the $60-$70 range that has persisted since the start of August. While China's refiners and the authorities in Beijing don't talk publicly about their strategies for building inventories, it's clear that they tend to import more crude when they deem prices to be reasonable, and pull back when prices rise too high or too rapidly. This was in evidence in September, when the surplus crude dropped to 570,000 bpd after hitting 1.10 million bpd in August. Cargoes arriving in September would largely have been arranged at the time of the Israel-Iran conflict, when crude prices were elevated, with Brent spiking to a six-month high of $81.40 a barrel on June 23. With prices having eased since June, China's refiners have resumed buying excess crude. In effect, China's storage flows act as a floor and ceiling for the crude oil price, meaning that it's likely that China will absorb any global surplus that may eventuate as OPEC+ lifts output targets. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/china-stockpiles-more-crude-october-oil-prices-moderate-2025-11-18/