2025-03-17 05:22

BEIJING, March 17 (Reuters) - Export registrations for more than 1,000 U.S. meat plants granted by China under the 2020 "Phase 1" trade deal lapsed on Sunday, China's customs website showed, threatening U.S. exports to the world's largest buyer amid an ongoing tariff standoff. The registration status for pork, beef and poultry plants across the U.S., including some owned by major producers Tyson Foods (TSN.N) , opens new tab, Smithfield Packaged Meats and Cargill Meat Solutions, was changed from "effective" to "expired", according to the website of China's General Administration of Customs. Sign up here. Reuters reported on Friday that these registrations were at risk of lapsing. The expiration of roughly two-thirds of the total registered facilities could restrict U.S. market access and lead to losses of roughly $5 billion, adding to the challenges faced by American farmers after Beijing imposed retaliatory tariffs on some $21 billion worth of American farm goods this month. Registrations for around 84 U.S. plants lapsed in February and while shipments from these plants continue to clear customs, it is uncertain how long China will allow imports. Beijing requires food exporters to register with customs to sell in China. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has said China did not respond to repeated requests to renew plant registrations, potentially violating the Phase 1 trade agreement. Under the Phase 1 trade deal, China is obligated to update its approved plant list within 20 days of receiving updates from the USDA. China's customs department did not immediately respond to faxed questions from Reuters. In 2024, the U.S. was China's third-largest meat supplier by volume, trailing Brazil and Argentina, accounting for 590,000 tons or 9% of China's total meat imports. U.S meat shipments to China reached $2.5 billion last year, making it the second largest exporter by value. Loss of access to China would be an especially hard blow for exporters of parts like chicken feet and pork offal, which are consumed less domestically. Smithfield Foods (SFD.O) , opens new tab CEO Shane Smith last week said tariffs had made it tougher for the biggest U.S. pork processor to sell all parts of a pig. Smithfield does not export material amounts of meat to China, but ships offal products, such as pig stomachs, hearts and heads, Smith said. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-meat-exports-risk-china-lets-registrations-lapse-2025-03-17/

2025-03-17 03:58

Over 60%, 19 of 31, expect rates to be on hold at 5.75% on March 19 BENGALURU, March 17 (Reuters) - Bank Indonesia will hold interest rates steady on Wednesday to protect the rupiah from further depreciation amid growing global trade tensions, but is expected to cut them next quarter to prop up economic growth, a Reuters poll found. Although Southeast Asia's largest economy grew just over 5% in 2024 - broadly mirroring the previous year's pace - it marked the slowest expansion in three years and was far below President Prabowo Subianto's 8% target. Sign up here. Last month, BI Governor Perry Warjiyo acknowledged the need to spur growth. However, with the rupiah down about 2% so far this year despite regular forex intervention, the central bank - mandated to keep the currency stable - is unlikely to shift its focus to growth at this meeting. More than 60% of economists, 19 of 31, in the March 10–17 Reuters poll predicted the central bank would keep its benchmark seven-day reverse repurchase rate (IDCBRR=ECI) , opens new tab at 5.75% on Wednesday. The remaining 12 respondents expected BI to cut rates by 25 basis points. The overnight deposit and lending facility rates were also expected to remain at 5.00% and 6.50%, respectively. "Similar to the February meeting, conditions for a cut... are not favourable. There has been renewed weakness in the rupiah. ... Against this challenging backdrop, we think that BI will wait it out for the next rate cut," said Sanjay Mathur, chief economist for Southeast Asia and India at ANZ. "As such, the rate-cutting cycle remains intact, but the timing of each rate cut would depend on FX stability." Median forecasts predicted a 25 basis point cut to 5.50% next quarter, but there was no clear consensus among economists, reflecting the uncertainties about President Donald Trump's trade policies. The rising risk of higher inflation in the U.S. due to Trump's erratic tariffs is expected to keep the Federal Reserve on hold for months, forcing BI to prioritise currency stability amid heightened risks of capital outflows from emerging market economies. "Global uncertainty, particularly concerning the inward-looking and protectionist policies of the U.S., will persist and may even intensify," said Josua Pardede, chief economist at Permata Bank. "In financial markets, the repercussions of trade war risks have already been felt, as many investors have adopted a risk-off approach, leading to capital outflows," Pardede added. "This will inevitably impact the stability of the rupiah exchange rate." (Other stories from the March Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/bank-indonesia-hold-rates-steady-march-19-cut-q2-2025-03-17/

2025-03-17 02:33

MUMBAI, March 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is expected to open flat-to-slightly-higher on Monday, comforted by modest gains in regional peers and as the dollar hovers near a 5-month low against major peers, pressured by erratic U.S. trade policies and soft macroeconomic data. The one-month non-deliverable forward indicates that the rupee will open at around 86.96-86.97 to the U.S. dollar, compared with its previous close of 86.9975. Sign up here. Other Asian currencies were mostly up between 0.1% to 0.3%, while the dollar index was marginally lower at 103.7. Data on Friday showed U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to an over 2-year low in March and inflation expectations soared amid worries about the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's sweeping tariffs. The dollar index has declined about 6% from its year-to-date peak hit in January as hopes of a growth boost from Trump's polices gave way to fears about a potential recession in the world's largest economy. In this backdrop, the focus this week will be on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decision and commentary about the impact of policy changes under the Trump administration. "A reduction in market expectations for U.S. rate cuts - currently priced at slightly less than 3 rate cuts in the rest of this year - could provide additional U.S. dollar support at the expense of Asian currencies," MUFG Bank said in a note. Meanwhile, traders reckon that importers are likely to continue lapping up favourable moves in the dollar-rupee pair, which could potentially limit gains in the currency. There is "strong appetite to buy dips below 87 (on USD/INR) among importer clients," a trader at a private bank said. Alongside dollar demand spurred by importers' hedging requirements, portfolio flows will also be in focus for the rupee. Overseas investors have net sold nearly $3.5 billion of local stocks in March so far, taking the tally this year to over $16 billion. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.18; onshore one-month forward premium at 22.50 paisa ** Dollar index down at 103.71 ** Brent crude futures up 0.9% at $71.2 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.31% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $161.6 million worth of Indian shares on March 12 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $158.1 million worth of Indian bonds on March 12 https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/mild-gains-regional-peers-may-help-rupee-importers-likely-cap-gains-2025-03-17/

2025-03-17 01:33

MUMBAI, March 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee alongside government bonds will likely take cues from the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy decision and commentary on the impact of policy changes under the new Trump administration. The rupee closed at 86.9975 on Thursday, down 0.1% on the week. India's financial markets were shut on Friday for a local holiday. Sign up here. Analysts expect the rupee to consolidate in the near term while eyeing tariff-related developments in United States' trade policy and broad movements in the dollar. The rupee is likely to face strong resistance around 86.50 while finding support in the 87.40-50 zone, said Dilip Parmar, a foreign exchange research analyst at HDFC Securities. Investors will focus on the Fed's policy meeting this week. While the central bank is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, its commentary on the impact of tariff policies on U.S. inflation and growth will also be closely watched. U.S. consumer sentiment plunged to a more than two-year low in March and inflation expectations have soared, data released on Friday showed. Ahead of the Fed's decision, retail sales data will offer cues on the U.S. consumer sentiment and whether policy uncertainty has prompted a slowdown in spending. With the end of India's financial year approaching on March 31, exporters' dollar sales may also pick up which could offer support to the rupee, a trader at a mid-sized foreign bank said. The benchmark 10-year bond yield ended at 6.6967% on Thursday, largely unchanged for the week. Traders expect the yield to trade in the range of 6.67%-6.72% this week. Bond yields dipped marginally after local retail inflation eased to 3.61% in February down from 4.26% in January, to its lowest since July. A Reuters poll had pegged the reading at 3.98%. The lower print has increased the chances of another rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India after it reduced the repo rate last month by 25 basis points - its first cut in nearly five years. "The RBI seems to be intent to support growth with some softening seen in our growth print and with inflation dipping steeply, it presents more elbow room for RBI to usher in one more cut in April," said Killol Pandya, senior debt fund manager at JM Financial Asset Management. "Along with the recent easing in liquidity, the situation may bode well for bonds in the coming months." Traders will be vigilant of tariff-related updates from Washington and their impact on global risk sentiment, while the primary focus will be on the Fed's policy guidance. Interest rate futures are pricing around three Fed rate cuts of 25 bps each in 2025. The RBI will buy bonds worth 500 billion rupees ($5.74 billion) on Tuesday, which many speculate could be the last such auction for the current financial year. The RBI has injected over 5 trillion rupees into the banking system since mid-January through bond purchases, forex swaps and early-April maturity repos. KEY EVENTS: ** India February WPI inflation - March 17, Monday (12:00 pm IST) (Reuters poll: 2.36%) ** Bank of Japan rate decision - March 19, Wednesday (Reuters poll: No change expected) ** Bank of England rate decision - March 20, Thursday (Reuters poll: No change expected) U.S. ** February retail sales - March 17, Monday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** February housing starts - March 18, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** February import prices - March 18, Tuesday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** February industrial production - March 18, Tuesday (6:45 p.m. IST) ** Federal Reserve monetary policy decision - March 19, Wednesday (11:30 p.m. IST)(Reuters poll: no change) ** Initial weekly jobless claims for week to March 10 - March 20, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** March Philly Fed Business Index - March 20, Thursday (6:00 p.m. IST) ** February existing home sales - March 20, Thursday (7:30 p.m. IST) ($1 = 87.0450 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-rupee-bonds-take-cues-fed-policy-decision-commentary-2025-03-17/

2025-03-17 00:51

March 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs has lowered its December 2025 and average 2026 forecasts for Brent and WTI crude oil prices, citing slower oil demand growth prospects and expectations of higher OPEC+ supply, it said in a note dated on Sunday. The bank expects Brent at $71 per barrel in December, down $5 from its previous forecast, and sees WTI at $67. Sign up here. It also cut its 2026 average Brent forecast to $68 from $73, and WTI to $64 from $68. The bank said it now expects oil demand growth of 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) in 2025, down from 1.1 mb/d previously, incorporating slower U.S. GDP growth on higher tariffs. Goldman added that it expects somewhat higher OPEC+ supply and that it expects OPEC8+ production increases to start in April, compared to July previously. Brent crude futures were trading 40 cents higher at $70.98 at 2208 GMT on Monday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-lowers-oil-price-views-slower-demand-growth-higher-opec-supply-2025-03-17/

2025-03-17 00:44

March 17 (Reuters) - Australian energy giant Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) , opens new tab said on Monday it had signed a long-term sale and purchase agreement with China Resources Gas International for the supply of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to China. Under the terms of the agreement, Woodside will supply approximately 0.6 million metric tons of LNG annually over 15 years, with deliveries set to commence in 2027. Sign up here. The deal is Woodside's first standalone long-term sales agreement with a Chinese buyer, and it marks the first instance of China Resources committing to a 15-year procurement of LNG, the Australian company said. The agreement is the fourth such agreement the energy supplier has signed for the LNG-hungry Asian market since early 2024, as the world races towards clean energy. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/woodside-signs-long-term-lng-supply-deal-with-china-resources-gas-2025-03-17/