2025-03-14 13:57

March 14 (Reuters) - Barclays on Friday lowered its 2025 Brent oil price forecast by $9 per barrel to $74 per barrel, citing a softer demand outlook amid elevated economic uncertainty. Brent crude futures were trading around $70 a barrel on Friday, after settling 1.5% lower in the previous session. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at around $67 a barrel. Sign up here. "We turn neutral on oil prices relative to the curve and consensus, as we revise down our 2025 demand outlook 510,000 barrels per day due to soft high-frequency indicators and elevated economic uncertainty," analysts at Barclays said in a note. "However, we do not turn bearish relative to the curve, as inventories are low and still declining, and risks to the supply outlook are also skewed to the downside, due to price-sensitive producers pulling back and geopolitical tensions," it said. The International Energy Agency warned on Thursday that global oil supply could exceed demand by around 600,000 barrels per day this year, due to growth led by the U.S. and weaker-than-expected global demand. Barclays, which expects U.S. crude output to rise by 200,000 barrels per day by the end of the fourth quarter from the year-earlier period, also lowered its oil demand outlook sharply and now expects growth of 900,000 barrels per day for the full year. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/barclays-cuts-2025-brent-oil-price-forecast-soft-demand-view-2025-03-14/

2025-03-14 12:26

March 14 (Reuters) - The relentless rise of gold has taken prices of the precious metal above the psychologically key $3,000 per ounce mark for the first time, as geopolitical and economic uncertainty sent investors rushing into the safe-haven asset. Spot gold hit a record $3,004.86 per ounce on Friday, marking its thirteenth all-time high in 2025. Prices have already climbed 14% this year, after surging 27% in 2024. Sign up here. "With continued central bank buying, there are multiple factors driving demand. In a backdrop of geopolitical uncertainty and ongoing tariff changes, appetite for gold remains strong," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. Since the start of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration, protectionist policies have jolted global markets, with his tariffs triggering swift retaliation from China and Canada. "With equity markets selling off and unpredictable political risks, we are starting to see a return of Western investors to gold, which could propel it to much higher levels," said John Ciampaglia, CEO of Sprott Asset Management. "We consider gold as an 'insurance policy' and source of liquidity in difficult market environments." Tariffs fuel inflation fears and trade tensions, driving investors to gold as a safe-haven hedge. Meanwhile, gold stocks in COMEX-approved warehouses hit a record 40.56 million ounces, as traders rushed to cover positions amid tariff uncertainty. But inflows have slowed in recent weeks. FEDERAL RESERVE Traders are doubling down on U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts, now expecting three quarter-point reductions this year, up from two just days ago. The Fed has slashed rates by 100 basis points since September, pausing in January, but markets now anticipate cuts to resume in June. That is keeping the dollar under pressure, a stark shift from when Trump's protectionist policies strengthened the currency. "The inflation data is helping to give the market confidence that the easing cycle will continue, given concerns around inflation and growth," said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. ETF DEMAND Investor demand for gold is surging, with physically-backed gold exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recording their largest weekly inflow since March 2022, according to the World Gold Council's February data. The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD), the world's largest gold-backed ETF, saw holdings rise to 907.82 metric tons on February 25, the highest since August 2023. "There will likely be increased flows into safe-haven assets like gold, especially as investors move away from equity growth stocks amid rising uncertainties and future concerns," said Dina Ting, Head of Global Index Portfolio Management at Franklin Templeton. She noted that while investment strategies vary, a 5% to 10% gold allocation can offer effective diversification. CENTRAL BANK DEMAND Gold's rise is getting another tailwind from central bank demand. Analysts say strong buying in 2025 could push prices to new highs as nations continue stockpiling the metal amid economic uncertainty. "Central banks may ramp up gold purchases amid market uncertainties, not just to hedge against the U.S. dollar but to anchor their currencies to gold as well," Ting said. China's gold reserves marked four straight months of buying in February. After an 18-month spree, the central bank paused for six months in 2024 before resuming purchases in November. In the absence of any improvement in the U.S. budget deficit, gold could challenge a high of about $3,500, Macquarie said in a note. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold target to $3,100. Central banks snapped up over 1,000 tons of gold for the third year in a row in 2024, and in the final quarter of 2024 - as Trump's election win roiled markets - buying soared 54% year-on-year, according to a report from the World Gold Council last month. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-vaults-3000-rush-safety-market-political-worry-2025-03-14/

2025-03-14 12:17

Carney sworn in, replaces Justin Trudeau as prime minister New PM says he respects Trump, can work with him Carney reshapes cabinet to handle Washington Carney expected to call federal election soon OTTAWA, March 14 (Reuters) - Ex-central banker Mark Carney was sworn in as prime minister of Canada on Friday and immediately said he could work with U.S. President Donald Trump, who is promising tariffs that could devastate the Canadian economy. Carney succeeds Justin Trudeau, who had a combative and often cold relationship with Trump. Carney, 59, made clear his approach would be different. Sign up here. "We respect President Trump - President Trump has put some very important issues at the top of his agenda. We understand his agenda," he told reporters after being sworn in, noting he had worked with Trump at international meetings. "In many respects, part of my experience overlaps with that of the President - we're both looking out for our countries. But he knows, and I know from long experience, that we can find mutual solutions that win for both," he said. Carney, who said he had no immediate plans to talk to the president, also said Trump administration talk of annexing Canada was "crazy". He reshaped his 24-person cabinet with a view to dealing with Washington, cutting almost half the ministerial positions he inherited from Trudeau. Finance Minister Dominic LeBlanc moved to the international trade portfolio and was replaced by current Innovation Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne. Foreign Minister Melanie Joly stays in her post. The next election must be held by October 20 and the Liberals will face the opposition Conservatives, who had long campaigned against a Trudeau-era consumer carbon tax. Carney, who promised to scrap the measure, signed an order eliminating it during his first cabinet meeting. "This will make a difference to hard-pressed Canadians," he told cabinet. Carney's appointment caps a momentous rise for a man who becomes the first Canadian prime minister without any serious political experience. Carney said he would visit London and Paris next week. Canada has sought to shore up alliances in Europe as relations with the United States founder. Carney crushed his rivals on Sunday in a race to become leader of the ruling Liberal Party. He replaces Trudeau, who spent more than nine years in office. Former finance minister Chrystia Freeland, whose shock resignation last December triggered a crisis that helped push out Trudeau, becomes transport minister. Carney, a former head of both the Bank of Canada and Bank of England, successfully argued his position as an outsider with a history of tackling crises meant he was the best person to take on Trump, who has repeatedly talked about annexing Canada. "We will never, ever in any way, shape or form, be part of the United States," he said on Friday. The cabinet is unlikely in office for long, since Liberal insiders say Carney is set to call a snap election within the next two weeks. If he changes his mind, opposition parties say they will unite to bring down the minority government in a confidence vote at the end of March. Once the election is called, Carney will be limited in what he can do politically because convention dictates he cannot make major decisions during a campaign. Opinion polls currently suggest it will be a close race with the Conservatives, with neither party gaining enough seats for a majority government. Until recently the Conservatives had enjoyed a double-digit lead in opinion polls, in large part due to unhappiness over a spike in living costs and a housing crisis. "100% of Carney's ministers were in Trudeau's caucus — helping hike carbon taxes and double the debt, housing costs and food bank lineups," said Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, in a post on X. "A Liberal is a Liberal is a Liberal." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mark-carney-be-sworn-canadian-prime-minister-now-must-face-trump-2025-03-14/

2025-03-14 12:06

COPENHAGEN, March 14 (Reuters) - The United States has reached out to Denmark and other European nations asking if they can export eggs as Americans face surging egg prices, the Nordic country's egg association said on Friday. The request from the U.S. Department of Agriculture coincides with a raft of new U.S. tariffs on countries, including in Europe, and the threat of more. President Donald Trump has also threatened economic sanctions unless Denmark hands over control of Greenland to the United States. Sign up here. U.S. wholesale egg prices are shattering records as an accelerating outbreak of bird flu in laying hens slashes supplies. Trump promised to lower egg prices on his first day in office but prices increased 59% on a year-on-year basis in February, the first full month of his administration. A letter reviewed by Reuters showed that a representative of U.S. Department of Agriculture in Europe had sent formal inquiries to egg producing countries in late February seeking information on their ability and willingness to export eggs to the American market. "We're still waiting to get more guidance from Washington on next steps, but do you have an estimate of the number of eggs that could be supplied to the United States (assuming they meet all the import requirements)," a follow-up letter to the Danish egg association in early March said. "Washington is trying to get an estimate of the amount they could feasibly source," said the letter, received last week. The Danish Egg Association said they would look into it but that there is no surplus of eggs in Europe. "There is a shortage of eggs everywhere on a global scale because consumption is increasing and many are affected by bird flu," he added. The spokesperson said they had requested more details on the conditions of such an agreement, highlighting that egg exports to the U.S. were challenging due to regulations related to hygiene and other factors. Turkey said in February it had started exporting around 15,000 tonnes of eggs to the United States. U.S. Department of Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins last month announced the plan to seek imported eggs as part of a $1 billion effort to combat the bird flu. The U.S. embassy in Copenhagen did not immediately reply to a request for comment. Reuters has also requested comment from the Department of Agriculture. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/how-many-eggs-can-you-send-us-asks-countries-help-lower-soaring-prices-2025-03-14/

2025-03-14 11:49

LONDON, March 14 (Reuters) - German Chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz reached an agreement with the Greens on Friday on a massive increase in state borrowing just days ahead of a parliamentary vote next week, Reuters reported, citing a source close to the negotiations. German shares rose on the news, with the blue chip Dax index (.GDAXI) , opens new tab over 2% higher on the day, while mid and small-cap stocks rose over 3% (.MDAX) , opens new tab, (.SDAX) , opens new tab. Sign up here. The euro also strengthened and was last up 0.5% at $1.0904, , while Germany's 10-year bond yield, rose 7 basis points to 2.93%. COMMENTS: ROHAN KHANNA, HEAD OF EURO RATES STRATEGY, BARCLAYS, LONDON: Bond markets have generally been of the view that the package will be approved and hence 10-year Bund yields have not retracted at all after the sharp increase last week. Recent news reports which suggest that they are close to a deal have resulted in a further sell-off in EGBs (European government bonds) and this pressure should persist for now. With this sell-off, the yield curve has also continued to steepen as the markets price improved growth and inflation in the medium-term requiring the European Central Bank to hike policy rates. As things stand, markets expect the ECB to cut rates to 2% before the end of this year and then increase them to 2.5% by end of 2027. NICHOLAS REES, HEAD OF MACRO RESEARCH, MONEX EUROPE, LONDON: "They’ve managed to get over the first hurdle. There are a lot of challenges still to come. In Germany it takes a long time to spend money. So, despite the fact markets are very optimistic right now, we think they’re going to be disappointed." "If it takes them a while to deploy cash, it’s going to take a while to feed through for growth. What you do get is a big uptick in borrowing costs, which is going to weigh on growth." "We certainly expected euro-dollar to retrace lows, we’re looking for euro-dollar to hit $1.03, as the market starts to price out some of these easing expectations in the U.S., as it becomes apparent these recession fears are overblown… and we’ve still got tariffs coming (on Europe)." CHRIS TURNER, GLOBAL HEAD OF MARKETS, ING, LONDON: "I think most of the market thought it (the fiscal reform) would go through. If we see confirmation today, rather than Tuesday, that it's gone through, then we're preempting some of the gains from next week." "Our rates strategy team think Bund yields are going to 3.2% and for the euro-dollar maybe $1.0950 might be the top. Big picture we see a range of $1.05-$1.10 and we think tariffs in April are going to be negative for the euro." "But, in the short-term all the focus is on this fiscal deal going through." ANDREAS BRUCKNER, EUROPEAN EQUITY STRATEGIST, BANK OF AMERICA, LONDON: "The market of course loves this news because they need the Greens to push through this fiscal package." "Everything related to German fiscal (policy) is basically up - also cap goods, defence stocks are driving this as well, an overall pro-cyclical rotation, I think a 1.2% outperformance of cyclical versus defensives, of course on the back of major underperformance yesterday." "So, there's also a bit of reversal of yesterday's broadly risk-off moves on the sector front." STEFAN BRUCKBAUER, CHIEF AUSTRIAN ECONOMIST, UNICREDIT, VIENNA: "Overall it's great news in general for the Austrian economy as Germany is our main trading partner and more than 7% of our GDP comes from Germany, this is more double amount than the U.S." "Looking at all these changes, especially in the U.S., it's good news for us that our main export market is starting to invest. Although there are some negative effects also, we have seen increasing interest rates on the long end." RICHARD MCGUIRE, HEAD OF RATES STRATEGY, RABOBANK: "The deal had been anticipated as indicated by the violent selloff in bonds last week." "The additional upward impetus in yields is limited." "What would be interesting to see is if the 3% ceiling for Bund yield breaks before these plans come into fruition." "This is positive for Germany but there are questions marks on how quickly the plans can be delivered. The speed at which the funds can be deployed is questionable." LEE HARDMAN, SENIOR CURRENCY ANALYST, MUFG, LONDON: "Short term it's another positive driver for the euro, but we'd be wary about getting too excited about the news, the market was already expecting it to come before next Tuesday." "It takes the risk of a disappointment off the table, and allows the euro to drift a bit higher." https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/view-german-stocks-euro-rise-after-german-parties-agree-debt-deal-2025-03-14/

2025-03-14 11:47

ROME, March 14 (Reuters) - Italy's state-controlled power grid operator Terna (TRN.MI) , opens new tab said on Friday it would invest more than 23 billion euros ($25 billion) on network upgrades over the next 10 years, to help support the country's energy transition. The group, which had last year pledged overall investments of 16.5 billion euros through 2028, announced it would raise by 10% the funds aimed at the development of the national power network in the 2025-2034 period. Sign up here. "Investing in planning, modernising and digitising electricity grids will be essential to cope with the growing demand for energy and the integration of renewable sources," Chief Executive Giuseppina Di Foggia said in a statement. She added that the group's goal was to "ensure that the country has a reliable, resilient and sustainable system". Energy Minister Gilberto Pichetto Fratin welcomed Terna's commitments. "23 billion (euros of investments) is an important thing, because clearly this is the backbone of the national energy (system). If we don't have the backbone of the network, we can't satisfy the demands of citizens and businesses," he told reporters. Terna forecast that thanks to its investment plan, the capacity for energy exchange between markets would reach about 39 GW from the current 16 GW and interventions would resolve local congestion and guarantee stability and security of the grid. It said major infrastructure projects such as the Tyrrhenian Link, connecting the island of Sicily to Sardinia and the southern region of Campania, the Adriatic Link off Italy's eastern coast and the EU-funded Italy-Tunisia power line would all be completed by 2030. Terna said its investments would help support the Italian government's goals to increase national installed solar and wind capacity by 65 GW by 2030 and 94 GW by 2035. It added that interventions envisaged in its plan would lead to a total reduction of up to 2,000 kiloton/year of carbon dioxide emissions by 2030, rising to 12,100 kiloton/year by 2040. ($1 = 0.9198 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/italys-terna-invest-23-billion-euros-network-over-10-years-2025-03-14/