2026-01-12 09:10

J.P. Morgan expects Fed's next move to be a rate hike Goldman Sachs, Barclays delay rate cuts to mid-2026 Traders bet on 95% chance of unchanged rates in Jan meeting Jan 12 (Reuters) - J.P. Morgan predicts the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move will be a rate hike in 2027, while Barclays and Goldman Sachs joined Morgan Stanley in postponing rate cut calls to mid-2026 as data suggested that the labor market was not rapidly deteriorating. J.P. Morgan withdrew its outlook for a January cut, forecasting Fed's next move to be a 25-basis-point rate hike in the third quarter of 2027. Macquarie reiterated its forecast of a rate hike in the December 2026 quarter. Sign up here. Data on Friday showed U.S. employment growth slowed more than expected in December. However, a decline in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and solid wage growth suggested the labor market was not rapidly deteriorating, boosting expectations that the central bank will leave borrowing costs unchanged at its January meeting. "If the labor market weakens again in the coming months, or if inflation falls materially, the Fed could still ease later this year," J.P. Morgan said in a note dated Friday. "However, we expect the labor market to tighten by the second quarter and the disinflation process to be quite gradual." Traders are betting on a 95% chance for the Fed to keep rates unchanged at its January meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool, up from 86% before the data. Goldman Sachs and Barclays, which had forecast cuts in March and June, now expect a 25 bps reduction in September and December, respectively, following the cut in June. "If the labor market stabilizes as we expect, the FOMC will likely shift from risk management mode to normalization mode," Goldman said in a note dated Sunday, as it lowered its 12-month U.S. recession probability to 20% from 30%. Morgan Stanley also revised its forecast on Friday to rate cuts in June and September from January and April. Wells Fargo and BofA Global Research both maintained their bets of March-June and June-July cuts, respectively. "Mix of data is consistent with our view that breakeven job growth might be falling (labor supply shock) even faster than the Fed will concede," BofA added. Meanwhile, the tussle between President Donald Trump and Fed Chair Jerome Powell intensified, after Powell on Sunday said the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment, stoking worries about the central bank's independence. Powell called this move a "pretext" to gain more influence over interest rates that Trump wants cut dramatically. https://www.reuters.com/business/goldman-sachs-pushes-back-us-fed-rate-cut-forecast-after-soft-jobs-data-2026-01-12/

2026-01-12 07:57

India, U.S. schedule trade call as talks remain strained Gor comments lift sentiment, Nifty rebounds modestly midday India to join Pax Silica, U.S. led strategic supply chain NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - India and the U.S. will discuss trade issues in their next call scheduled for Tuesday, Washington's newly-appointed ambassador to New Delhi, Sergio Gor, said on Monday, at a time when failure to secure a trade deal has roiled their ties and pushed the rupee to a record low. India will also be invited to join Pax Silica next month, Gor said, referring to a U.S.-led initiative to build a silicon supply chain from critical minerals to semiconductors and AI. Sign up here. Trade talks between India and the U.S. fell apart and Trump then doubled tariffs on Indian goods in August to 50%, among the world's highest rates, including a levy of 25% to punish New Delhi for purchasing Russian oil. The two nations have been close to a deal on several occasions since they agreed to negotiate in February last year, India said last week. "Both sides continue to actively engage. In fact, the next call on trade will occur tomorrow," Gor said in New Delhi as he formally took charge of his position, adding that the two countries will continue to work on issues such as security, counterterrorism, energy, technology, education and health. The failure to reach a deal has pushed the Indian rupee to a record low and spooked investors waiting for progress in two-way negotiations. FRIENDS ALWAYS RESOLVE DIFFERENCES, GOR SAYS Gor's comments brought some cheer to Indian markets, and the benchmark Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab recovered 220 points to trade 0.15% higher as of 12:45 p.m. (0715 GMT). Indian trade minister Piyush Goyal, in comments made elsewhere, also said that New Delhi continues to talk to Washington for a trade deal. "The United States and India are bound not just by shared interests, but by a relationship anchored at the highest level," Gor said. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi had earlier agreed to target a deal by fall 2025, and more than double bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. To bridge the $47 billion goods trade gap, India pledged to buy up to $25 billion in U.S. energy and boost defence imports. Reuters has reported that New Delhi and Washington were very close to a trade deal last year but a communication breakdown led to the collapse of any potential pact. "Real friends can disagree, but always resolve their differences in the end," Gor said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-us-discuss-trade-issues-january-13-new-envoy-says-2026-01-12/

2026-01-12 07:48

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 12 (Reuters) - The South African rand gained in early trade on Monday, helped by gold prices reaching another record high. At 0736 GMT the rand traded at 16.4225 against the dollar , roughly up 0.4% from its previous closing level. Sign up here. Soaring prices of precious metals, a major South African export, have helped to propel the rand to its strongest in more than three years. The currency ended 2025 nearly 13% stronger against the U.S. dollar and is poised to clock another year of gains. Gold broke through $4,600 per ounce for the first time on Monday, while silver also hit a record high, as investors snapped up safe-haven assets due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Andre Cilliers, Currency Strategist at TreasuryONE said that the turmoil in Iran and weak U.S. labour data also fueled safe-haven demand. On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the Top-40 index (.JTOPI) , opens new tab was up 1.2% in early trade. South Africa's benchmark 2035 government bond also gained, with the yield falling five basis points to 8.285%. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-african-rand-gains-gold-scales-new-peak-2026-01-12/

2026-01-12 07:16

Museveni's long rule faces challenge from Bobi Wine Previous elections marred by violence Uganda an important security partner of foreign powers Jan 12 (Reuters) - Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni will seek to extend his four-decade rule on Thursday in an election that has renewed questions about the 81-year-old leader's eventual succession. While political analysts say Museveni's stranglehold on Ugandan institutions makes victory for him and his National Resistance Movement (NRM) party a near certainty in presidential and parliamentary elections, how the vote unfolds could have important implications for the country's path forward. Sign up here. WHO ARE THE CANDIDATES? Museveni, who came to power at the head of a rebellion in 1986, is aiming for a seventh term in office. His main challenger is 43-year-old Bobi Wine, who finished runner-up in the 2021 election with 35% of the vote and is popular with young voters. Other notable candidates are former military chief Mugisha Muntu, an anti-corruption campaigner, and Nandala Mafabi, a lawmaker who was previously the opposition leader in parliament. WHAT ARE THE KEY ISSUES? Museveni has campaigned on a slogan of "protecting the gains", touting a record of relative peace and stability. He has said he wants to make Uganda a middle-income country by boosting manufacturing, adding value to agricultural exports such as coffee and cotton and capitalising on the start of oil production expected later this year. Wine has focused on restoring political freedoms, accusing Museveni of "40 years of dictatorship". The government has denied allegations of widespread human rights abuses. Wine has also vowed to stamp out corruption, bolster youth employment and review production-sharing agreements with international oil firms if they do not favour Ugandan interests. WILL THERE BE UNREST? Successive elections in Uganda have been marred by violence and crackdowns on government opponents. Security forces killed more than 50 people before the last election in 2021 while responding to protests triggered by Wine's arrest. Hundreds of opposition supporters have been detained in the run-up to this year's vote, and at least one was killed at a campaign event. Violent youth-led protests in neighbouring Kenya and Tanzania over the past two years have underscored the risks to the government of young people's frustration with political systems they see as corrupt and unresponsive to their needs. Last week, Ugandan authorities said they were banning live broadcasts of riots, "unlawful processions" and other violent incidents. WHAT IS AT STAKE FOR FOREIGN ACTORS? Museveni's Uganda has been a strategic ally of Western countries, sending troops to fight Somalia's al Shabaab and other militant groups in the region. It also hosts the largest number of refugees in Africa. The United States criticised the 2021 elections as neither free nor fair and imposed visa bans on some Ugandan officials, but Washington is unlikely to weigh in on this year's poll after U.S. diplomats were instructed in July not to comment on the integrity of foreign elections. Museveni's government has curried favour with U.S. President Donald Trump's administration by entering an agreement in August to take in deportees from the U.S. who are nationals of third countries. Uganda has expanded its economic ties with China and non-Western powers such as Russia and the United Arab Emirates in recent years. China National Offshore Oil Corporation [RIC:RIC:SASACY.UL] is one of the two lead partners in Uganda’s Lake Albert oil fields, which are due to start commercial crude production later this year. WHAT ELSE WILL UGANDA OBSERVERS BE WATCHING? There may be little suspense about the election outcome, but political observers will be watching the vote for what it says about a future presidential succession. Museveni is widely thought to be lining up his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to succeed him. Kainerugaba has fuelled the speculation by openly discussing his presidential ambitions, although Museveni has denied grooming his son to succeed him. Political analysts say Kainerugaba's status as heir apparent is a source of controversy within the NRM and that other party heavyweights are also positioning themselves for Museveni's eventual departure from the scene. One important metric will be Museveni's margin of victory. In 2021, he registered his lowest score in a presidential election with 58% of the vote. Any further slippage could weaken his political standing before a possible succession battle, analysts say. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/what-is-stake-ugandas-presidential-election-2026-01-12/

2026-01-12 07:15

Museveni faces seven challengers, main rival is Bobi Wine Museveni's son is seen as potential eventual heir Oil production expected to boost Uganda's economic growth KAMPALA, Jan 12 (Reuters) - Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is widely expected to extend his four-decade rule in an election on Thursday after a campaign marred by violence and clouded by questions about who might eventually succeed him. A former rebel leader who overthrew his predecessor in 1986, Museveni is now 81 and faces seven challengers. He says another four years in power - his seventh term - would allow him to "protect the gains" of Uganda's relative peace and stability. Sign up here. The main opponent among his seven challengers is 43-year-old pop star Bobi Wine, who won 35% of the vote in the last election in 2021 and has energised young voters angry about widespread unemployment and corruption. Museveni has changed the constitution twice to remove age and term limits, and his dominance of Ugandan institutions means there is little prospect of an upset in the East African country of 46 million, political analysts say. But the election, and any unrest that accompanies the voting, will be an important test of his political strength at a critical moment, four years after the United States denounced the last election as neither free nor fair. Uganda is a significant geopolitical player in East Africa and has troops deployed in Somalia, South Sudan, the Democratic Republic of Congo and Equatorial Guinea as part of peacekeeping, anti-insurgency or military cooperation missions. Economic growth, traditionally reliant on coffee, tourism and agro-processing, is expected to surge into double digits when crude oil production from fields run by France's TotalEnergies (TTEF.PA) , opens new tab and China's CNOOC (600938.SS) , opens new tab begins later this year. SPECULATION ABOUT SUCCESSION Museveni is widely believed to favour his son, military chief Muhoozi Kainerugaba, to be his successor, though the president has denied grooming Kainerugaba for the role. Kainerugaba, a prolific social media presence who often posts threats of violence against opposition leaders, has openly declared his desire to succeed his father. But Kainerugaba's status as heir apparent is not accepted by all within the ruling National Resistance Movement and other party heavyweights are also positioning themselves for Museveni's eventual departure, analysts say. As in previous elections, the campaign has been marred by violence, with security forces repeatedly using teargas and live bullets at Wine's campaign events. At least one person has been killed and hundreds arrested. The government has defended the security forces' actions as a justified response to lawless conduct by opposition supporters. Fears of unrest around the poll have been amplified by violent protests around Tanzania's elections in October, in which the United Nations estimates hundreds of people were killed. Anti-government protests over the past two years in Kenya, which also borders Uganda, have also been deadly. "The possibility of a contagion effect in Uganda, inspired by its two neighbours, cannot be ruled out," said Kampala-based political analyst Timothy Kalyegira. WINE TAPS INTO DISSATISFACTION OF YOUNG PEOPLE The first round of voting will be held alongside a parliamentary election. A presidential run-off will be held within a month if no candidate wins an outright majority. Despite concerns about his human rights record, Museveni has won favour with Western countries by sending troops to regional hotspots such as Somalia and taking in millions of refugees. More recently, he has curried favour with U.S. President Donald Trump by agreeing to take in U.S. deportees who are nationals of third countries. Sarah Rusoke, a 26-year-old owner of a vehicle-washing business credited Museveni with building an "economy that allows us to start businesses and ... create our own footprints". Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has tapped into dissatisfaction among young people in a country where more than 70% of the population is under 30. He has described the election as a "protest vote" against what he calls Museveni's "dictatorship", while pledging a wholesale clean-up of official corruption if he wins. "I am inspired by his bravery," Simon Walusimbi, a 21-year-old mechanic, said of Wine. "He has put up with all the persecution the government has thrown at him." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/veteran-ugandan-leader-eyes-new-term-election-amid-succession-talk-2026-01-12/

2026-01-12 07:10

NEW DELHI, Jan 12 (Reuters) - India was a net exporter of finished steel in the first nine months of the financial year, with shipments reaching 4.8 million metric tons, up 33.3% from a year ago, according to provisional government data reviewed by Reuters on Monday. The data showed that the world's second-biggest crude steel producer imported 4.65 million metric tons of finished steel in the same period. Sign up here. Country-wise data on India's steel exports is expected later in the month. In December, the government imposed an import tariff on some steel products to curb cheaper shipments, primarily from China. The levy, locally known as a safeguard duty, will be imposed at 12% followed by 11.5% in the second year and 11% in the third year. India produced 117.6 million metric tons of finished steel between April-December, while consumption stood at 119.3 million metric tons, the data showed. Crude steel production during the period stood at 123.9 million metric tons, according to the data. In January, leading Indian steelmakers raised prices of hot-rolled coils and cold-rolled coils by up to 2,000 rupees ($22.19) per metric ton, according to commodities consultancy BigMint. Prices of hot-rolled coil ranged between 50,250 rupees per metric ton to 51,250 rupees per metric ton, the consultancy said. ($1 = 90.1413 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-steel-exports-grow-by-third-between-april-december-govt-data-shows-2026-01-12/