2025-11-17 07:13

China, US and Europe trade different paths in energy transition China and Europe seek to reduce fossil fuel dependence United States slows transition due to abundance of fossil fuels LONDON, Nov 17 (Reuters) - As COP30 kicks off its second week in Brazil, much has changed since the landmark Paris climate agreement was penned 10 years ago. The spirit of cooperation that once reigned has been shattered by economic rivalries and a stark divergence in climate policies among the world’s biggest polluters. Sign up here. The landmark UN COP21 climate agreement , opens new tab signed in Paris on December 12, 2015 saw 195 nations commit to setting binding targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit global warming to "well below" 2 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial levels. The ambition has in recent years been strengthened to 1.5 degrees. Ten years on, and global renewables consumption has tripled, with solar alone growing more than seven-fold, according to the Energy Institute's 2024 Statistical Review. But the hard truth is that fossil fuel consumption has continued rising, with the share of wind and solar in the world's energy mix growing from 4% to 9% of the mix over the past decade. Perhaps just as significantly, the energy transition in recent years has split into three distinct paths represented by the United States, China and Europe, as regional economic and political realities trump global cooperation. CHINA GOES IT ALONE China – the world's largest energy consumer and CO2 emitter – has had to import vast volumes of oil, gas and coal in the past three decades at an enormous cost to fuel the growth of its industry, cities and middle class. Beijing’s energy policy is therefore increasingly being shaped by an ambition to reduce its reliance on imports. This has driven investments in domestic sources of energy, be they coal, oil, gas or renewables, while also scaling up electric vehicle manufacturing and other green technologies to reduce demand for imported fossil fuels over the long term. Indeed, China is today the undisputed leader in many of the technologies and materials that underpin the world's energy transition, such as solar panels, batteries and rare earths. It is also by far the largest deployer of clean power, accounting for over 60% of all renewables capacity added worldwide last year. By the end of 2024, China’s wind and solar capacity exceeded 1,400 gigawatt, six years ahead of its declared target, according to the International Energy Agency. Of course, China is continuing to expand its fleet of cheap coal-fired power plants to meet growing demand and deal with renewables’ intermittency. China aims to reach carbon neutrality by 2060, and its emissions may have already peaked. President Xi Jinping pledged in September that China would reduce its emissions , opens new tab 7%-10% by 2035, though that appears to fall short of its Paris pledge. Beijing’s desire to lead the energy transition may be rooted in its own economic interests and desire to reinforce itself as a dominant global power, but its rapid adoption of renewables arguably remains the most positive climate story of the past decade. US KEEPS ON PUMPING One of President Donald Trump’s first actions after being sworn into office for his second term in January 2025 was to withdraw the United States from the Paris agreement. Although the United States may return to the Paris framework under future administrations – as Joe Biden did after Trump withdrew during his first term – the country's huge oil and gas resources will likely shape its climate policy for decades. The United States is today the world's largest oil producer and the top exporter of liquefied natural gas, accounting for a fifth of global supplies for both fuels. While the United States also has huge potential for solar and wind power, growth in this sector is expected to slow sharply now that Trump has scrapped most of Biden's clean energy policies. And investors may be loath to revive investments in low carbon technology for years given all the political and regulatory uncertainty. To be sure, the surge in U.S. cheap natural gas production since 2014 has helped drive down the country's energy-related emissions by over 20% since their 2007 peak by displacing more-polluting coal-fired power plants. Moving forward, the U.S. energy transition is likely to be slow and subject to policy-driven volatility – at least until the economic benefits of producing fossil fuels no longer outweigh the risks of climate change. EUROPE LEARNS HARD LESSON Europe has for decades been a prominent advocate of the energy transition. Following the Paris agreement, the European Union and Britain set out ambitious laws to ensure they would become net zero emitters by 2050, meaning any remaining emissions would be offset by nature-based solutions and other technologies. But then came Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. European governments were forced to drastically overhaul their energy strategies after the war – and related sanctions – set off a price shock that rocked households and businesses. The abrupt loss of abundant Russian gas and oil supplies led to a sharp slowdown in industrial activity that battered economies. In turn, governments rowed back some of their flagship climate policies. The energy crisis taught Europe a harsh lesson about the risks of relying heavily on a single supplier of energy. Russia supplied 40% of Europe's gas demand and nearly a third of its oil until 2022. While these percentages have since dwindled rapidly, Europe has replaced dependence on Russia with dependence on the United States, which supplies over 60% of the region’s LNG imports. Europe, like China, is seeking to reduce energy imports, but its heavy investment in renewables has proven expensive and subject to its own risks, given China's dominance in renewables supply chains. At the same time, Europe’s sluggish economic activity and heavy energy bills have become key factors in domestic political debates, with growing calls, particularly among right-wing parties, to further scale back, if not scrap, net zero policies. A decade after the Paris climate deal, China, the United States and Europe have each embarked on a distinctly different energy path, with strategic and economic realities taking precedence over unified ambitions. This does not mean the energy transition will cease moving forward, but it will likely do so in a bumpier, fractured and more self-interested fashion that idealists may have expected ten years ago. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/future-energy-transition-will-be-fractured-bumpy-long-2025-11-17/

2025-11-17 06:38

US jobs, Nvidia earnings headline week ahead European shares slip Treasury yields dip Bitcoin erases year-to-date gains NEW YORK, Nov 17 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks extended their selloff and benchmark Treasury yields inched lower as investors embarked on a week of accelerated economic data releases in the aftermath of the longest government shutdown ever in the United States. Chipmaker Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab is due to report quarterly earnings on Wednesday. The artificial intelligence bellwether's results will be scrutinized for signs of waning demand in a sector that has driven much of the stock market's rally over recent months. Sign up here. All three major U.S. stock indexes churned sharply lower as the session progressed. "I think we're seeing some follow-through on last week's pullback, particularly in the tech sector focusing on the AI trade," said Matthew Keator, managing partner in the Keator Group, a wealth management firm in Lenox, Massachusetts. "The question is do the valuations justify the stock price?" "Behind that, there is some concern related to employment and how the AI trade is going to play out in terms of the jobs number in the future and what that looks like to the unemployment numbers," Keator added. Last week, lawmakers reached an agreement to end what had become the longest-ever U.S. government shutdown, during which an absence of official economic data helped dampen expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve would implement its third rate cut of the year at the conclusion of next month's policy meeting. To make up for lost time, this week promises a slew of pent-up reports, including the Labor Department's September employment data slated for Friday. "There's a great deal of uncertainty about what to expect from several months of data, and over the period of the next several weeks that's going to be a big focus," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Third-quarter earnings season is winding down, with more than 90% of the companies in the S&P 500 having reported. Of those, 83% have delivered consensus-beating results, according to LSEG data. Aside from Nvidia's hotly anticipated results on Wednesday, retailers Home Depot (HD.N) , opens new tab, Target (TGT.N) , opens new tab and Walmart (WMT.N) , opens new tab, among others, should shed light on the state of consumer demand. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 557.24 points, or 1.18%, to 46,590.24, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 61.72 points, or 0.92%, to 6,672.39 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 192.51 points, or 0.84%, to 22,708.08. European stocks slipped as market participants shied away from making big bets ahead of long-deferred U.S. jobs data. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab fell 7.98 points, or 0.80%, to 987.45. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index fell 0.54%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab fell 12.66 points, or 0.55% Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab rose 0.93 points, or 0.07%, to 1,386.54. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed higher by 0.04%, to 714.13, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab fell 52.62 points, or 0.10%, to 50,323.91. Treasury yields dipped amid AI growth concerns, as traders evaluated whether the Fed will cut interest rates next month as delayed inflation and employment reports become available. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 1.3 basis points to 4.135%, from 4.148% late on Friday. The 30-year bond yield fell 1.1 basis points to 4.7348% from 4.746% late on Friday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 0.6 basis points to 3.608%, from 3.614% late on Friday. The dollar firmed as the resumption of official U.S. economic data put currency traders on guard, particularly in the aftermath of some non-government data such as ADP's National Employment index, which hinted at softening in the labor market. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.23% to 99.55, with the euro down 0.28% at $1.1588. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.44% to 155.21. Bitcoin fell 1.53% to $92,008.68. The cryptocurrency has erased its year-to-date gain, touching its lowest level since late April. Ethereum declined 1.66% to $3,021.44. Crude prices dipped after plunging about 4% in the previous session, as investors weighed worries of oversupply with looming sanctions against Russia's Lukoil. U.S. crude fell 0.3% to settle at $59.91 per barrel, while Brent settled at $64.20 per barrel, down 0.3% on the day. Gold inched lower in opposition to the firming greenback. Spot gold fell 0.9% to $4,042.39 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 1.67% to $4,019.40 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-17/

2025-11-17 06:34

MUMBAI, Nov 17 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended a touch higher on Monday as modest dollar inflows helped the currency hold its ground in the face of persistent importer hedging demand and data showing India's trade deficit hit a record high in October. The rupee closed at 88.63 against the U.S. dollar, marginally higher from its close at 88.7425 in the previous session. Sign up here. The rupee earlier rose to a session high of 88.5775 on likely inflows into local stocks, but pared gains after importers' dollar bids picked up and data showed a worse-than-expected merchandise trade deficit. The trade deficit (INTRD=ECI) , opens new tab widened to a record $41.68 billion in October, fuelled by surging gold imports. The data also showed that India's exports to the U.S. declined to $6.31 billion last month, down about 9% year-on-year as the country grapples with steep U.S. tariffs levied earlier in the year. Investors are also keeping a close eye on the ongoing U.S.-India trade negotiations, and reckon that a breakthrough could spark foreign portfolio flows into local stocks and help the rupee rebound from near record-low levels. New Delhi and Washington could soon agree to "address reciprocal tariffs," as part of the first part of an agreement, an Indian trade official said on Monday. Lately, the currency has leaned on frequent interventions by the central bank to stave off a fall below its all-time low of 88.80. The central bank was intermittently active to support the rupee even on Monday, a senior trader at a Mumbai-based bank said. Meanwhile, Asian currencies were down between 0.1% and 0.5%, while the dollar index treaded water just shy of the 99.5 mark as investors awaited a barrage of U.S. economic data set to be released this week. "Our forecasts for the US dollar to weaken further heading into year-end rest on the assumption that US labour demand remains weak leaving the door open for further Fed rate cuts," MUFG said in a note. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-dragged-by-weaker-asian-peers-held-up-by-central-bank-line-2025-11-17/

2025-11-17 06:21

Nov 17 (Reuters) - India has exported its first-ever jet fuel cargo to the U.S. West Coast for energy major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab, according to trade sources and shipping data, seizing upon a rare arbitrage opportunity to fill supply shortfalls in Los Angeles. U.S. West Coast jet fuel production has been curtailed since October, after a fire at Chevron's 285,000 barrel-per-day El Segundo refinery in southern California forced the company to take multiple units offline. Sign up here. About 60,000 metric tons (472,800 barrels) of the aviation fuel was loaded on Panamax tanker Hafnia Kallang between October 28 and 29 from the Jamnagar port, where Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab run a refinery, according to data from Kpler, LSEG and four trade sources. Castleton Commodities chartered the ship, which is expected to arrive in Los Angeles in the first half of December, multiple shipbrokers said. All the sources spoke on condition of anonymity. Reliance and Castleton did not respond to requests for comment. Chevron declined to comment on commercial matters, saying it expected to complete repairs to the El Segundo jet fuel production unit in early 2026. U.S. WEST COAST IMPORTS TO REMAIN ELEVATED U.S. West Coast jet fuel supply could remain tight until the El Segundo repairs are completed, two trade sources said. "Chevron remains focused on supplying its customers around the world, including those supplied by the El Segundo refinery, and may utilise local or imported product to do so," the company said in a statement. However, traders said it was unlikely that the U.S. West Coast would receive frequent imports from India, as shipments from Northeast Asia are cheaper. Shipping costs for about 40,000 metric tons of refined fuels from South Korea to the U.S. West Coast have held steady around $40 per ton since October, SSY pricing data showed. Spot shipping rates between India and the U.S. West Coast are typically not readily available as the route is less common. Last month, Northeast Asia-origin jet fuel exports to the U.S. West coast were at five-month highs of about 600,000 tons, Kpler shiptracking data showed. Arbitrage economics have stayed healthy with U.S. West Coast jet fuel prices at $10 per barrel above spot free on board prices in Singapore, Asia's benchmark. U.S. West Coast jet fuel stocks stood at a three-month low of 11.12 million barrels on November 7. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-ships-first-jet-fuel-cargo-us-west-coast-traders-say-2025-11-17/

2025-11-17 06:21

Dollar extends gains against its main rivals Fed needs to move slowly with further rate cuts, Jefferson says Fed minutes due on Wednesday Focus on US non-farm payrolls report on Thursday Nov 17 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell more than 1% on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and reduced expectations of a U.S. interest rate cut next month, as investors awaited delayed economic data this week that could offer clues on the Federal Reserve's policy path. Spot gold was down 1.5% at $4,019.12 per ounce, as of 03:13 p.m. ET (20:13 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery settled 0.5% lower at $4,074.5 per ounce. Sign up here. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab inched higher, making dollar-priced bullion expensive for holders of other currencies. The market is seeing "some back and forth choppy action ahead of what is expected to be a release of a deluge of economic data now that the U.S. government has reopened," said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. "Right now, there's a lesser expectation for additional Fed rate cuts, which has dented optimism for gold." This week's calendar includes September jobs data on Thursday and minutes from the Fed's last meeting, where it cut rates by 25 basis points, on Wednesday. Meanwhile, an increasing number of Fed policymakers have maintained a hawkish stance on rate cuts for the central bank's next meeting in December. Traders are currently pricing in a 41% probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, down from more than 60% last week, the CME FedWatch tool showed. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said the U.S. central bank needs to "proceed slowly" with any further interest rate cuts as it eases policy towards a level that would likely stop putting downward pressure on inflation. Safe-haven gold tends to thrive in a low-interest-rate environment as it is a non-yielding asset. Scotiabank analysts estimate gold prices at $3,800/oz for 2026, compared with $3,450/oz this year, citing uncertain economic conditions and an eventual decline in real interest rates. Elsewhere, spot silver dropped 1.2% to $49.94 per ounce, platinum fell nearly 1% to $1,526.45, and palladium dipped 0.4% to $1,379.02. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/gold-holds-steady-focus-turns-us-data-more-fed-cues-2025-11-17/

2025-11-17 06:17

TOKYO, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Tokyo Gas (9531.T) , opens new tab, Japan's largest city gas supplier, said on Monday it sold its U.S.-based subsidiary, TVL LLC, involved in gas development and production to Grayrock Energy for $255 million. The unit, operating in Louisiana's Haynesville and Cotton Valley formations, was sold as part of Tokyo Gas's strategy to optimise its asset portfolio, it said in a statement. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/tokyo-gas-sells-us-gas-unit-grayrock-energy-255-million-2025-11-17/