2025-03-06 06:39

Non-farm payrolls report on Friday Gold is up more than 10% so far this year Current bearish price action may drag gold lower, says analyst March 6 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell about 1% on Thursday as investors booked profits following a three-day rally, with markets eyeing U.S. jobs data for clues on the Federal Reserve's rate path amid rising global trade tensions. Spot gold , which dipped 0.5% to $2,904.51 an ounce as of 1211 GMT, has gained over 10% year-to-date. It hit a record high of $2,956.15 on February 24. U.S. gold futures also dropped 0.5% to $2,912.10. "Gold seems to be experiencing profit-taking as investors closely watch tariff developments with prices trading toward $2,900 ahead of the non-farm payrolls report," Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM, said. Market focus is pinned on an escalating global trade war after the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada on Tuesday along with fresh duties on Chinese goods. Asian stocks rose as investors held out hope that trade tensions could ease after U.S. President Donald Trump exempted some automakers from tariffs for a month. Investors turn to gold as a safe haven asset when geopolitical and economic uncertainties loom. "Unless there is a fresh direction catalyst, the current bearish price action may drag gold lower. Should prices break below the $2,900, this may signal further downside toward $2,880," Otunuga said. The spotlight is on Friday's non-farm payrolls report, which is expected to show a gain of 160,000 jobs for February, economists polled by Reuters said. Meanwhile, platinum prices were flat at $964.68 per ounce. "We look for platinum to be undersupplied by 500,000 ounces, or 6.4% of demand, in 2025, keeping the metal in a deficit for a third consecutive year," UBS said in a note. "Our market deficit should further reduce the above-ground inventories below 3 million ounces and help prices to move to USD 1,100/oz this year." Spot silver dipped 0.7% to $32.39 an ounce and palladium shed 0.5% to $937.74. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-rises-dollar-weakness-us-payrolls-data-eyed-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 06:11

NEW DELHI, March 6 (Reuters) - India's Fertilisers And Chemicals Travancore (FCTL.NS) , opens new tab is in talks to sign a three-year contract to buy rock phosphate from Togo, to widen its supply sources, three people with direct knowledge of the matter said. In what would mark an Indian company's first long-term fertiliser deal with the African nation, FACT is looking to buy 250,000 metric tons per year of rock phosphate for three years from Societe Nouvelle des Phosphates du Togo (SNPT), the sources said. FACT and SNPT did not respond to Reuters email seeking comments. Indian firms are keen to sign long-term fertiliser import deals to hedge against price volatility and supply shortages of soil nutrients needed for the country's huge agriculture sector, which accounts for 15% of $2.7 trillion economy. FACT last month signed a non-binding agreement to buy rock phosphate from SNPT, the sources said. All details except pricing have been finalised, they said, adding that the contract has a provision for quarterly price negotiations. India's rock phosphate imports from Togo have risen steadily over the past few years, with purchases made on a spot basis. In the fiscal year to March 31, 2024, Indian companies imported a total 1.1 million tons of rock phosphate from Togo, up about 30% from the previous year, data compiled by Fertiliser Association of Indian shows. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/deals/india-fertiliser-company-talks-buy-phosphate-togo-sources-say-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 06:10

LAUNCESTON, Australia, March 6 (Reuters) - Hopes that China's annual meeting of parliament would provide significant economic stimulus to boost commodities have been dashed, with Beijing instead largely promising a continuation of the mild stimulus policies seen last year. The headline news of an economic growth target of about 5% and promises of efforts to boost consumption and tackle any fallout from the escalating trade war with the United States were encouraging. But the parliament meeting this week also fell well short of the sort of stimulus announcements that would have given confidence to commodity markets that China, the world's biggest buyer of natural resources, is going to see meaningful growth in imports in 2025. Rather, what's more likely is a continuation of the trends seen in 2024, where some commodities perform better than others but the overall story is still only of modest growth. One of the major commodities that may continue to struggle to increase demand in 2025 is crude oil, with data from the first two months of the year suggesting that China, the world's biggest importer, is continuing along its recent soft path. China's crude imports are estimated by LSEG Oil Research at 10.75 million barrels per day (bpd) in February, up slightly from January's 10.1 million bpd, but still down from the customs figure of 11.04 million bpd for 2024. Part of the softer trend for China's imports of crude oil has been the government's support for consumers to move to what it calls new energy vehicles (NEVs), which are full electric vehicles or hybrids. A subsidy scheme for switching to NEVs and more efficient household appliances was expanded earlier this year, implying that the rapid growth of NEVs, which now make up more than half of new car sales, will continue in 2025. For those hoping that the focus on boosting consumer spending would somehow create stronger demand for steel, the news is not so good. For the first time in five years China unveiled a plan to trim crude steel output in 2025 in a draft report from the state economic planner. Although the report didn't specify the target for steel output, it's likely that it will be no more than 1 billion metric tons, the level around which China's steel production has oscillated since 2019. If steel output does drop from the 1.005 billion tons recorded in 2024, it will likely weigh on China's imports of iron ore and coking coal, the two key raw materials. IRON ORE, COAL China buys about 75% of global seaborne iron ore, but imports are off to a weak start in 2025. February arrivals are estimated at 83.92 million tons by commodity analysts Kpler, which would be the lowest monthly total since April 2019 and down from 104.34 million in January. The Lunar New Year holidays may have impacted February imports, but putting them together with Kpler's January estimate gives a daily average of 3.19 million tons for the first two months of the year, down from 3.39 million for 2024. Coal is another commodity that is struggling so far in 2025, with Kpler estimating China's seaborne imports of all grades were 29.82 million tons, the lowest since February 2024 and down from January's 35.9 million. The weakness in coal imports is most likely a reflection of lower domestic prices, which have swelled inventories and cut demand for imported fuel. If there was any positive news for commodities in China's announcements this week, it was related to those most associated with the energy transition. The National Development and Reform Commission said in a statement on Wednesday that China will develop new offshore wind farms and accelerate the construction of what it called "new energy bases" across the western desert parts of the country. The ongoing focus on building renewable energy capacity is positive for China's demand for metals such as copper, aluminium and silver, which is used in solar panel manufacturing. Copper contracts on the Shanghai exchange rose in early trade on Thursday, gaining as much as 1.1% to 77,990 yuan ($10,757) a ton, and they are now up 5.2% since the end of last year, while aluminium futures gained a more modest 0.5%. While some optimism over demand for metals in China is justified by the ongoing commitment to building renewable energy capacity and increasing the share of NEVs, the residential property sector remains a concern. A bigger concern is the potential impact of the trade wars being launched by the administration of new U.S. President Donald Trump, which threaten to slow global growth and lift inflation. The views expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinas-modest-stimulus-is-no-big-bang-commodities-russell-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 06:03

HOUSTON, March 6 (Reuters) - U.S. exports of crude oil to India last month climbed to their highest in over two years, ship tracking data showed, as refiners in the country sought alternative supplies following tighter U.S. sanctions on Russian producers and tankers. The U.S. exported about 357,000 barrels per day (bpd) of crude to India, the world's third-biggest oil importer and consumer, in February, ship tracking data from Kpler showed. That compared with exports of about 221,000 bpd last year. The jump in exports to India underscores how multiple rounds of sanctions imposed by Washington on ships and entities dealing with oil from Iran and Russia since October are disrupting trade with major importers of their oil. India said last month its energy purchases from the U.S. could go up to $25 billion in the near future from $15 billion last year. "Indian refiners are trying to diversify their crude supplies, especially light-sweet barrels," said Rohit Rathod, a senior analyst with ship tracking firm Vortexa. "Sanctions on Russian vessels that came in recently only pushed Indian buyers to look elsewhere," he added. About 80% of the crude exported to India was light sweet West Texas Intermediate-Midland crude, according to the data. Top buyers included Indian Oil Corp (IOC.NS) , opens new tab, Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab and Bharat Petroleum Corp (BPCL.NS) , opens new tab, according to the data, while top sellers in the U.S. included oil producer Occidental Petroleum (OXY.N) , opens new tab, majors Equinor (EQNR.OL) , opens new tab and Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab and trading house Gunvor (GGL.UL). The companies did not immediately reply to requests for comments or declined to comment. The U.S. also exported a record 656,000 bpd of crude to South Korea in February, as a 10% tariff on U.S. oil by China rerouted flows. Exports to China from the United States eased to 76,000 barrels per day, among the lowest volumes in the last five years. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-crude-exports-india-hit-over-2-yr-high-feb-russia-sanctions-bite-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 05:32

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee As trade tensions simmer and investors contend with Germany ripping up its fiscal rulebook, the European Central Bank is widely expected to cut interest rates again on Thursday but what comes next remains up in the air. The ECB has cut rates five times since June as inflation retreated and economic growth faltered. But with rates slowly approaching a level that no longer restricts economic growth, one might expect an end to the easing cycle. That may not be the case here, though, as the spectre of a trade war with the United States looms large. Also clouding the near-term outlook are announcements by Germany and the European Commission on changes to fiscal rules, to allow higher defence and infrastructure spending. All eyes will be on the ECB when it announces its policy decision at 1315 GMT, followed by ECB President Christine Lagarde's 1345 GMT press conference. The markets are still digesting Berlin's big bazooka measures announced late on Tuesday, which triggered a steep selloff in German bonds, a surge in the euro to a four-month high and the best day for the DAX index (.GDAXI) , opens new tab in well over two years. Futures indicate the DAX is set for a higher open on Thursday while German 10-year Bund futures are down 0.7%, indicating a likely decline in cash bond prices once that market opens. Germany's 10-year yield , the euro zone's benchmark, climbed more than 30 basis points on Wednesday, its biggest daily rise since the euro was launched in 1999. Investors' mostly exuberant reaction to the fiscal binge contrasted with investor angst about the tightening purse strings in the United States. Stocks in Asia on Thursday tracked Wall Street higher as investors held out hope that trade tensions could ease after U.S. President Donald Trump exempted automakers from tariffs for a month. And as my colleague Jamie McGeever notes in his revamped newsletter: As long as Washington's chaotic "on-off, on-off" tariff policy persists, a fog of nervous uncertainty and heightened volatility will hang over the markets. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: Feb PMI data for euro zone, Germany, France and UK ECB interest rate decision Earnings: Reckitt Benckiser, ITV and Merck KGaA Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2025-03-06/

2025-03-06 05:31

MUMBAI, March 6 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee fell on Thursday, likely squeezed by demand to hedge future dollar liabilities amid a drop in forward premiums on the back of the central bank's FX swap announcement. The rupee was at 87.07 to the U.S. dollar at 10:43 a.m. IST, down from 86.9550 in the previous session. The currency had inched up past 86.90 before dollar buying by importers kicked in, according to traders. It is "not surprising" that the uptick in the rupee "did not stick", a currency trader at a bank said. The drop in forward premiums post the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) FX swap, alongside the overall weak outlook for the rupee would have brought in dollar buyers, he said. The three-year swap dropped nearly 25 basis points on Thursday and the one-year by 16 bps. Dollar-rupee forward premiums declined after the RBI said last Wednesday it would conduct a buy-sell $10 billion three-year swap to boost rupee liquidity. This is the third FX swap that India's central bank has announced this year. Previously, it has conducted a $5 billion six-month swap and a $10 billion three-year swap. Nomura said that it was a "little surprised" at the size of the current auction considering the three-year swap last week received just $16 billion in bids. However, external commercial borrowing hedging flows in the cross currency swap market and the non-deliverable swap market are seasonally higher in March, and the RBI absorbing these flows reduces the pay flow in markets, Nomura said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-dips-forward-premiums-plunge-post-india-central-banks-fx-swap-2025-03-06/