2025-03-05 00:01

LONDON, March 4 (Reuters) - The Wa State, a semi-autonomous region of Myanmar, has finally broken its year-long silence on the fate of the Man Maw tin mine. The mine is the jewel in Myanmar's tin crown and its suspension since August 2023, ostensibly for an audit, has reduced the flow of tin raw materials to Chinese smelters, constraining output of refined metal. The Wa authorities have now said they are ready to accept applications for mining and processing licences at Man Maw, flagging its likely return later this year. The news, officially confirmed , opens new tab by the International Tin Association (ITA), has wrong-footed tin bulls and sent the London Metal Exchange (LME) tin price tumbling. MAN MAW RETURNS Myanmar is the world's third largest source of mined tin after China and Indonesia and Man Maw, until its suspension, was by some margin the country's largest producing tin asset. The Wa State, which controls Myanmar's tin sector, has no smelters so everything that is mined is shipped over the border to feed smelters in China's Yunnan province. Raw material shipments were little changed in the months immediately after the suspension of operations as above-ground stocks at Man Maw were processed. But China's imports from Myanmar have slowed significantly over the last nine months, falling to 21,500 metric tons in the second half of 2024 from 54,900 tons in the first half of the year and 94,600 tons in the year-earlier period. While some smaller tin mines have re-opened, they are clearly nowhere near as significant a supplier as Man Maw. Chinese producers have tried to compensate by lifting imports from other countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Australia and Bolivia. But total imports of tin raw materials were still down by 36% year-on-year in 2024 and at 156,700 tons were the lowest since 2020. The lack of raw material has pressured smelter operating margins and acted as a major constraint on China's refined metal production. BULLS WRONG-FOOTED News of Man Maw's return has unsurprisingly caused a sell-off in the London tin market. LME three-month metal surged to a four-month high of $33,790 per ton on February 21, at which stage tin was the best performer among the LME base metals with year-to-date gains of 15.8%. Funds had been steadily lifting their bull bets on still higher prices. Long positioning reached a record high of 5,172 contracts, equivalent to almost 26,000 tons, at the end of last week. The ITA's confirmation that Man Maw will return saw the price tumble to $31,050 at the end of last week, although it has this week bounced back as far as $32,145 per ton. The partial price recovery is not illogical given it may be several months before the mine actually starts generating tin again. STRUCTURAL SUPPLY RISK The announcement by the Wa State it is ready to grant licences is only the very first step on the way to a full re-opening. As the ITA notes, even once licenses are granted, it will take a couple of months at least for workers, mainly from China, to get work permits and move back to Myanmar. It is also likely the mine will have to be de-watered after such a long suspension, meaning that shipments to China will realistically only start to build momentum in the second half of the year. Chinese smelters will continue to struggle with low raw materials availability and refined metal production will continue to be affected until the flow of raw materials recovers to pre-suspension levels. In the interim, the tin market has other supply concerns in the form of the M23 rebel advances in the east of Congo. The country's Bisie mine, which last year produced 17,324 tons of contained tin in concentrates, has so far been unaffected. It is located some 200 kilometres west of the area now under insurgent control but owner Alphamin Resources Corp (AFM.V) , opens new tab has warned , opens new tab that the risk profile at Bisie has increased. This underlines tin's structural supply problems. A market that is touted as a big beneficiary of both the energy transition and the internet of things is still beholden to a very limited number of global suppliers. The return of Man Maw doesn't change that structural supply risk. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/tin-bulls-retreat-myanmar-flags-return-key-mine-2025-03-04/

2025-03-04 23:47

Trump says Ukraine ready for peace talks, cites Zelenskiy letter Trump says "strong signals" Russia ready for peace Trump, Zelenskiy say ready to sign minerals deal European allies pressured as U.S. shifts stance on Russia WASHINGTON/KYIV, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump said on Tuesday he received a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in which the Ukrainian leader expressed willingness to come to the negotiating table over the Russia-Ukraine war. "Ukraine is ready to come to the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring lasting peace closer. Nobody wants peace more than the Ukrainians," Trump said in an address to Congress on Tuesday while quoting from the letter. Trump also said he had been in "serious discussions with Russia" and had "received strong signals that they are ready for peace". "Wouldn't that be beautiful?" he said. "It's time to stop this madness. It's time to halt the killing. It's time to end this senseless war. If you want to end wars you have to talk to both sides." Trump was expected to further outline his plans for Ukraine and Russia in the speech to Congress, but did not reveal any further details on how he plans to end Europe's biggest conflict since World War Two. Trump said Ukraine was ready to sign a minerals deal with the U.S., which Washington says is crucial to secure continued U.S. backing for Ukraine's defense. Four sources told Reuters that the Trump administration and Ukraine plan to sign the deal in return for military aid, which Trump has paused. But later on Tuesday U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News, "There is no signing planned," according to a post on X by a Fox reporter. Trump gave no further details on the minerals deal, leaving its fate unclear. Early on Tuesday, Zelenskiy pledged to repair relations with the U.S. after what he described as a "regrettable" Oval Office clash with Trump last week. Zelenskiy said he wanted to "make things right" and was ready "any time and in any convenient format" to sign the minerals deal, which he left on the table during a visit to Washington after the Oval Office argument with Trump. His statement came a day after Trump halted military aid to Ukraine, his latest move to upend U.S. policy and adopt a more conciliatory stance toward Russia. "My team and I stand ready to work under President Trump’s strong leadership to get a peace that lasts," Zelenskiy said in his statement on X. The statement made no mention of the pause in U.S. military supplies. Zelenskiy's statement was clearly aimed at stressing Kyiv's gratitude following the explosive confrontation at the White House, at which Trump and Vice President JD Vance scolded Zelenskiy as insufficiently appreciative. "We do really value how much America has done to help Ukraine maintain its sovereignty and independence," Zelenskiy wrote. "Our meeting in Washington ... did not go the way it was supposed to be. It is regrettable that it happened this way. It is time to make things right." Zelenskiy outlined a path towards a peace agreement, which he said could begin with a release of prisoners and a halt to air and sea attacks, if Russia did the same. "Then we want to move very fast through all next stages and to work with the U.S. to agree a strong final deal." GEOPOLITICAL SHIFT Earlier, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said Ukraine's forces could hold their own on the battlefield against Russian troops, but that Kyiv would do everything possible to continue cooperating with the U.S. "We will continue to work with the U.S. through all available channels in a calm manner," Shmyhal said. "We only have one plan - to win and to survive." In Moscow, the Kremlin said cutting off U.S. military aid to Ukraine was the best possible step towards peace, although it was waiting to confirm Trump's move. U.S. Democrats have raised an outcry over Trump's abrupt pivot towards Russia, the most dramatic geopolitical shift in generations for Washington, where governments under both parties since the 1940s have prioritized defending Europe from a hostile Moscow. PRESSURE ON EUROPE The pause in U.S. military aid puts more pressure on European allies who have publicly embraced Zelenskiy since the Oval Office blow-up. Britain and France, whose leaders both visited the White House last week, have offered troops to help guard a potential ceasefire. On Tuesday, Germany's conservatives and Social Democrats announced proposals to set up a 500 billion euro ($531 billion) fund to help ramp up defence spending. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen unveiled proposals to mobilise up to 800 billion euros for EU defence spending. The 27-nation bloc holds an emergency summit on Thursday. French President Emmanuel Macron's office said the president had spoken with both the U.S. and Ukrainian leaders and welcomed Zelenskiy's will to re-engage with Trump. But French Prime Minister Francois Bayrou was sharply critical of Trump's move to pause military supplies. "Suspending aid during a war to a country under attack means abandoning the country under attack and accepting or hoping that the aggressor will win," he said during a parliamentary debate. Ukrainians were stunned and many described Washington's move as a betrayal. Oleksandr Merezhko, head of the Ukrainian parliament's foreign affairs committee, said it looked like Trump was "pushing us towards capitulation". "Yes, it is betrayal, let's call it like it is," said lawyer Olena Bilova, 47, in Kyiv. "But let's hope that American civil society and the elites of the European Union will not leave us alone." ($1 = 0.9418 euros) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/trump-halts-all-us-military-aid-ukraine-white-house-official-says-2025-03-04/

2025-03-04 23:32

BOGOTA, March 4 (Reuters) - Colombia's majority state-owned oil producer Ecopetrol (ECO.CN) , opens new tab reported on Tuesday a nearly 22% annual net profit drop in 2024, hit by a stronger U.S. dollar and lower international oil prices. The energy company, whose shares are 88.5% held by the Colombian government, posted a net profit last year of 14.9 trillion pesos ($3.6 billon), compared to 19.06 trillion pesos in 2023. Ecopetrol Chief Executive Ricardo Roa said during a press conference that 49% of the company's net profit decline last year was due to the exchange rate, 36% to prices and 15% to inflation. In the fourth-quarter Ecopetrol reported a 7.8% net profit drop at 3.9 trillion pesos, reflecting the same challenges seen throughout the year linked to oil prices and the foreign exchange. Total sales for the quarter totaled 34.8 trillion pesos, flat from the same three-month period a year earlier. The company's earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) - a key metric for analysts - fell 3.1% in the last three months of 2024 versus the year earlier period to 11.88 trillion pesos, Ecopetrol added. Its total oil and gas production in the period declined nearly 4% year-on-year to settle at 730,100 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). In 2024, the company's production reached 745,800 boepd, up 1.2% year-on-year, which Roa said marked the highest level recorded in the past nine years. ($1 = 4,116.61 Colombian pesos) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/profits-colombias-ecopetrol-dip-nearly-8-fourth-quarter-hit-by-oil-prices-2025-03-04/

2025-03-04 23:19

Tropical cyclone Alfred set to cross coast Friday early morning Authorities ask residents to prepare for evacuation Theme parks closed, AFL to postpone season-opening matches SYDNEY, March 5 (Reuters) - Australia's east coast braced on Wednesday for a tropical cyclone that is swirling towards Brisbane, the country's third-most populous city, as authorities warned thousands of properties were at risk due to strong winds and flash flooding. Destructive wind gusts of up to 155 kph (96 mph) could develop from Thursday afternoon as tropical cyclone Alfred is expected to cross the coast as a category-two storm early on Friday morning near Queensland state capital Brisbane, Australia's weather bureau said. The weather system will bring heavy rainfall leading to life-threatening flash floods, the Bureau of Meteorology said. Category two cyclones - on a five-level scale - are three rungs away from the most dangerous and can cause major damage to trees and caravans, and break boats from their moorings. "If you're told to leave, you should leave. I can't be more blunt than that," Queensland Premier David Crisafulli told ABC News, calling on residents to heed evacuation orders. Storm warnings on Wednesday stretched for more than 500 kilometres (311 miles) across the coast in the states of Queensland and New South Wales, impacting millions of people. A total of 122 schools in the north of New South Wales will be closed on Wednesday and Thursday, and vulnerable residents will be urged to relocate by Thursday morning, New South Wales Premier Chris Minns said. "We need to bunker down over the next 48 hours and get through what may be a very difficult time," he told reporters. Many residents have left their homes as authorities rush to open evacuation centres. Sandbags are in short supply and supermarket shelves have been stripped bare as people stock up on essentials. Theme parks in the tourist city of Gold Coast will be closed from Wednesday, the Ladies European Tour co-sanctioned WPGA Championship event was called off, and the season-opening matches of the Australian Football League in Brisbane were postponed. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/australias-east-coast-braces-cyclone-alfred-2025-03-04/

2025-03-04 22:49

CHICAGO, March 4 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump's new tariffs on goods from Canada, Mexico and China threaten to hurt the $191 billion American agricultural export sector and raise costs for farmers struggling with low crop prices, farm groups warned on Tuesday. Trump imposed 25% duties on imports from Mexico and Canada and doubled duties on Chinese goods to 20%, sparking trade wars with the biggest buyers of U.S. farm products. Canada and China targeted American products including wheat and poultry with retaliatory levies, while farm groups said U.S. tariffs on imports from Canada would raise fertilizer costs. About 85% of U.S. imports of potash fertilizer come from Canada, according to industry data. Higher costs and lower exports would hit farmers as many are bracing to lose money growing corn and soybeans, the nation's biggest commodity crops. "For the third straight year, farmers are losing money on almost every major crop planted," said Zippy Duvall, president of the American Farm Bureau Federation. "Adding even more costs and reducing markets for American agricultural goods could create an economic burden some farmers may not be able to bear," Duvall added. U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said she was in communication with Trump about the economic repercussions to farmers. "His message, frankly, to the ag community is 'trust me,'" Rollins told reporters at the National Association of Counties conference. China, the world's biggest soybean importer, retaliated against U.S. tariffs by hiking import levies covering $21 billion worth of American agricultural and food products. Canada imposed retaliatory duties on C$30 billion ($20.84 billion) worth of U.S. imports. Worries about tariffs and retaliation prompted some Canadian grocers to cancel orders from American produce growers and shift to suppliers in other countries in the past month, U.S. farmers' group Western Growers said. For red meat, Canada, Mexico and China accounted for $8.4 billion in U.S. exports last year, according to the U.S. Meat Export Federation. "Tariff wars are only serving to harm those who rely on international trade to support their livelihoods," said Greg Tyler, CEO of the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council. ($1 = 1.4394 Canadian dollars) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-farmers-face-higher-costs-fewer-markets-tariffs-farm-groups-warn-2025-03-04/

2025-03-04 22:32

New license supersedes authorization granted in 2022 Chevron's agreement has helped Venezuela's economy Venezuela has called it a damaging decision WASHINGTON/HOUSTON, March 4 (Reuters) - The Trump administration said on Tuesday it was ending a license that the U.S. had granted to oil producer Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab since 2022 to operate in Venezuela and export its oil, after Washington accused President Nicolas Maduro of not making progress on electoral reforms and migrant returns. Washington has in recent years authorized some companies to maintain operations in Venezuela and export oil to certain markets, including the U.S., Europe and India, as exceptions to its sanction regime on the South American country's energy sector, first imposed in 2019. Since he took office in January, U.S. President Donald Trump has said the United States does not need Venezuela's oil, which last year represented about 3.5% of all U.S. crude imports or some 220,000 barrels per day (bpd). However, that flow has been a key means for Chevron to recover billions of dollars in pending debt in Venezuela. Chevron will have through April 3 to wind down exports and other operations in Venezuela, according to an update of the license published by the U.S. Treasury Department. The update supersedes the previous license granted to Chevron in November 2022, which allowed its operations to expand and Venezuelan exports to the U.S. to resume. The magnitude of the scale down was not immediately clear. A Chevron spokesperson said the company was aware of Trump's directive and would abide by any direction given by Treasury to implement it. A similar wind down order by Trump's previous administration in 2020 allowed Chevron to produce crude in Venezuela and remain as a partner in joint ventures with state firm PDVSA, but banned any exports or imports by the company in the country. That, over time, led to a severe output reduction and the accumulation of billions of dollars in unpaid revenue. In February, Chevron's exports of Venezuelan oil fell to 252,000 bpd from 294,000 bpd in January, vessel monitoring data showed. Venezuela said in a release posted by Vice President Delcy Rodriguez that the license termination would hit the U.S. the most by putting pressure on U.S. gasoline prices and increasing the risks for U.S. companies to invest overseas. Maduro's 2024 reelection was backed by Venezuela's electoral authority and top court, but vehemently contested by the opposition, the U.S. and others. His government has always rejected sanctions, saying they are illegitimate measures that amount to an "economic war." MORE TO COME U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last month that a new policy would be issued on other foreign oil companies' presence and operations in Venezuela. Those details have not been released. Chevron's joint ventures with PDVSA represent about a quarter of the country's entire oil output and provide a much-needed source of heavy crude to its own refineries and others operated by firms including Valero Energy (VLO.N) , opens new tab, PBF Energy (PBF.N) , opens new tab, Phillips 66 (PSX.N) , opens new tab and Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab. Chevron's license, which is backed by a broad agreement with PDVSA including the operation of joint oilfields and trading, has provided a steady source of revenue to Maduro's administration since early 2023 through royalties and tax payments. The money has lifted Venezuela's battered economy, especially its oil and banking sectors, which expanded last year. The license cancellation is expected to reduce the dollars on offer in Venezuela's exchange market, stoking depreciation, analysts have said. It represents the latest economic challenge for Maduro, whose government for years has applied orthodox measures to tamp down formerly sky-high inflation, restricting credit, curbing public spending and until recently, holding the exchange rate steady. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-orders-wind-down-chevrons-oil-exports-venezuela-30-days-2025-03-04/