2025-03-04 12:17
March 4 (Reuters) - The EU will present an action plan to make Europe's ailing steel sector more competitive and to shield it from looming U.S. trade tariffs on March 19, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said on Tuesday. The action plan follows a 'strategic dialogue' with key representatives of the sector which was chaired by von der Leyen on Tuesday. Europe's steel industry called on the EU Commission in November to take immediate action to avert what it termed the sector's irreversible decline. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/eu-present-action-plan-steel-sector-march-19-2025-03-04/
2025-03-04 12:13
March 4 (Reuters) - The British pound edged higher against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday as traders weighed the implication of U.S. President Donald Trump's tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China following recent data suggesting a slowdown in the American economy. Sterling rose to $1.2741, a near three-month high, and was last up 0.18%. It rallied 0.97% on Monday as the U.S. dollar fell on weak data and European markets strengthened after the continent's leaders drew up a Ukraine peace plan to present to Washington. "Sentiment has... been helped by the pound falling off investors' immediate concerns, with tariff-talk and Russia/Ukraine dominating market thinking," said Kamal Sharma, senior FX strategist at Bank of America. The dollar extended the previous day's sharp decline in the wake of weak U.S. manufacturing data on Monday that reflected corporate concerns about tariffs and mirrored declines in other sentiment measures. The dollar index was last down 0.36% at 106.16, around its lowest since mid-December. Trump's 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada came into force on Tuesday at 0501 GMT, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Canada and Mexico are poised to retaliate, while China has already hit back with additional tariffs of its own against U.S. imports. Economists expect Trump's protectionist measures to weigh less on the pound because Britain has a more balanced trade position with the United States, helping boost the pound against the euro in recent weeks. The euro rose 0.15% against the pound to 82.69 pence after ticking slightly higher on Monday, but remained close to its weakest since mid-December. Investors are focused European leaders' efforts to boost military spending and provide alternative support for Ukraine. Trump has paused military aid to Ukraine following his public clash with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy last week, a White House official said, deepening the fissure that has opened between the one-time allies. A rise in European government bond yields to account for the extra borrowing and spending has helped boost sterling and the euro against the dollar. Yields move inversely to prices. British finance minister Rachel Reeves is aiming to speed up the procurement of defence equipment, as Britain plans to increase military spending following Trump's call for Europe to do more to protect itself. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-edges-higher-against-dollar-tariffs-focus-2025-03-04/
2025-03-04 11:46
March 4 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs sees downside risks to its average Brent forecasts for 2025 and 2026 in the wake of OPEC+’s plans to increase oil output in April, including softer demand based on recent U.S. activity data and tariff escalation. The output increase is the first since 2022 from OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, plus Russia and other allies. It is set to begin one quarter earlier than Goldman Sachs' prior assumption of four months of increases starting in July, the bank said. The bank had forecast Brent oil to average $78/$73 and U.S. West Texas Intermediate oil to average around $74/$68 per barrel for 2025/2026. However, oil supply could be higher than expected, especially if OPEC+ production increases stretch beyond the four-month base case, the bank said in a Monday note. “Specifically, we estimate that Brent would drop to the low-to-mid $60s by end-2026 in a risk scenario where OPEC8+ supply rises for 18 months," it added. The bank also sees some downside risk to its 1.1m b/d 2025 oil demand growth forecast based on recent U.S. economic data, softer oil demand in China and tariff escalation. The OPEC+ announcement caused oil prices to fall around 2% to a 12-week low on Monday. Meanwhile, Citi Research noted that the producer group's decision was more bearish for oil prices than their base case of OPEC+ delaying the return of barrels through 2025, but directionally in line with its call for Brent to grind lower to $60-65 per barrel over the next 6-12 months. Barclays said in a note that the decision by OPEC+ to ratchet up output did not seem to be in response to stronger-than-expected oil demand, but rather in response to increasing political pressure, especially from the Trump administration. Separately, U.S. President Donald Trump's new 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada took effect on Tuesday, along with a doubling of duties on Chinese goods to 20%. Goldman Sachs estimated that tariffs on Canada and Mexico oil imports into the U.S. or tariffs on all U.S. oil imports would not significantly affect WTI or Brent prices but would significantly reduce the producer price for tariffed ex-U.S. heavy crude oil and raise U.S. refined product prices, especially in coastal regions. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/goldman-sees-downside-risk-oil-price-forecasts-20252026-2025-03-04/
2025-03-04 11:46
March 4 (Reuters) - Reliance Industries (RELI.NS) , opens new tab electric vehicle battery-making unit has asked the federal government for more time to set up its manufacturing plant as part of a production-linked incentive scheme, the Mukesh Ambani-led conglomerate said on Tuesday. The conglomerate did not specify the length of the extension sought or the reason for the delay. In March 2022, Reliance secured incentives under the government's , opens new tab production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme to establish 5 gigawatts (GW) of local manufacturing capacity for advanced chemistry cells (ACCs). The 181-billion-rupee ($2.07 billion) scheme required companies to set up manufacturing facilities within two years. Reliance also said that the unit has received a letter from the Ministry of Heavy Industries imposing a penalty due to the delay. The penalty stood at 31 million rupees ($355,293) as of March 3. The Indian government launched the incentive scheme to boost local production of batteries as the country aims to increase EV sales in India to 30% of total car sales. Electric models comprised about 2% of total car sales in India last year. ($1 = 87.2520 Indian rupees) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/indias-reliance-industries-seeks-extension-ev-battery-plant-setup-2025-03-04/
2025-03-04 11:39
LAGOS, March 4 (Reuters) - Seplat Energy (SEPLAT.LG) , opens new tab plans to invest up to $320 million in new wells and infrastructure this year, aiming to more than double its oil output to as much as 140,000 barrels per day following its acquisition of Exxon Mobil's Nigerian assets. The company secured government consent last October to acquire 40% of four oil mining leases and associated infrastructure, including the Qua Iboe export terminal, and 51% of the Bonny River natural gas liquids recovery plant previously owned by Mobil Producing Nigeria Unlimited, Exxon's local unit. This acquisition is a large part of the projected production increase, which could take the company's onshore and shallow water oil output from an average 48,618 bpd last year to up to 140,000 bpd, with the former Exxon (XOM.N) , opens new tab assets contributing 60%. "This year we will focus on re-opening previously shut-in wells in SEPNU (the former Exxon assets), alongside another full drilling campaign for our onshore assets," Seplat CEO Roger Brown said while announcing 2024 results. The company reported profit before tax of 379.4 million up from 191.million last year, revenue of $1.116 billion, up 5% from the year before, year-end cash at bank of $469.9 million, and net debt at year-end 2024 of $898 million. International oil companies shut in much of their onshore and shallow-water oil production in Nigeria following years of sabotage and disputes with local communities over leaks. The company also plans to drill 13 new wells onshore this year and complete its ANOH gas plant. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/nigerias-seplat-plans-up-320-million-spending-new-assets-drive-production-2025-03-04/
2025-03-04 11:33
Morning Bid U.S. What matters in U.S. and global markets today By Mike Dolan , opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Financial Industry and Financial Markets We’ve revamped Morning Bid U.S. to offer you more in-depth markets analysis and commentary. Mike Dolan will help you make sense of the key trends shaping markets each day. For more expert analysis, look out for Reuters' new markets and finance commentary vertical, coming this spring. Already-nervy markets were greeted on Tuesday with a full-blown trade war and major diplomatic row, as fears of a first-quarter economic downturn erased hopes that the U.S. economy will sail through the disruption unscathed. U.S. tariff hikes against Canada, Mexico and China are set to go ahead and have already been met with retaliatory measures from Beijing. Wall Street smells trouble. The S&P500 (.SPX) , opens new tab recorded its deepest loss of the year on Monday, notably on a day when Germany's defence-spurred DAX index (.GDAXI) , opens new tab clocked its biggest daily gain in more than two years. In fact, all three major U.S. stock indexes (.SPX) , opens new tab, (.IXIC) , opens new tab, (.RUT) , opens new tab are back in the red for the year, as Treasury yields hit near 5-month lows, the dollar (.DXY) , opens new tab recoiled and high yield corporate credit spreads (.MERH0A0) , opens new tab have widened the most since October. Three Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year are once again being priced into money markets, one more than the Fed has indicated. Given all this, today I'm taking a deeper look at how Donald Trump's administration seems to have undermined domestic confidence - and the economic outlook - with policy uncertainty as much as any direct impact from new measures. Today's Market Minute Low US policy visibility equals big economic trouble Markets spent so much time figuring out the direction of Trump's economic policies, they might have missed the risk that no one ever really knows what's next. Designed in part to keep rival negotiators guessing and calculated to wring concessions, the new Trump Administration's deliberate ambiguity on trade tariff policies or geopolitical alliances may take its toll if domestic business doesn't know what exactly they're planning for. For the economy, that's proving toxic. A hiatus in business and household decision making marks the biggest threat to the lengthy expansion and still-expensive Wall Street. Business and consumer surveys suggest it's getting harder to understand what prices or policies will prevail moving forward and are likely seeing projects, employment, deals and investments postponed until the coast clears. Whether it will ever truly clear during this government is now a salient question. ISM's February survey of manufacturing firms showed both new orders and employment readings slip back into contraction mode after post-election buoyancy, while tariff-irked inflation expectations are back on the rise. S&P Global's poll of businesses in the U.S. dominant service showed overall activity turned negative last month for the first time in 16 months. In some cases, the uncertainty is skewing behaviour to such a degree that it's weighing directly on key components of gross domestic product calculations. Net international trade, for example, is a major input into GDP math. But as U.S. firms rushed to frontload imports to dodge looming trade tariffs on goods from abroad, the trade deficit jumped as a result - sending GDP estimates into tailspin. Loaded into the closely-watched Atlanta Fed 'GDPNow' model, the net exports variable posits the first quarterly contraction in overall U.S. GDP in nearly three years. While some dismiss the number as a statistical glitch, it's still alarming for an investment universe that convinced itself the business cycle had died and which has priced most U.S. securities accordingly. And a problem for those who think tariff distortions will wash out of the mix soon is Trump's seeming intention to keep ever higher and broader tariffs dangling indefinitely. MORE THAN IT CAN STAND Combined with the uncertain impact of slashed Federal government spending and public sector job cuts, even those who consider the Atlanta Fed's red flag to be a false one also think it's ominous as a precursor to the real impact of both the tariffs and government cuts. UBS Global Wealth Management's U.S. economist Brian Rose described the GDPNow swoon as "noise rather than a signal" - but he added that this week's planned tariff hikes on Canada, Mexico and China were real cause for concern. "If implemented, these tariffs would deliver a significant shock that may be more than the economy can withstand at the moment." Other relatively bullish Wall Street investment houses are similarly antsy about the recent turn in sentiment. Morgan Stanley economists on Monday said some of the sudden gloom may be overdone but the uncertain sequencing of U.S. policies was a worry. Their point was that policies that soften growth and firm inflation - on trade tariffs and immigration curbs - look set to come first and policies that could boost growth, like deregulation, come later or "maybe not at all" in the case of tax cuts. And it said the spending cuts underway were in areas with "high multipliers", adding that announced layoffs may reduce federal employment by 31,000 per month through September and a proposed hiring freeze may cut employment by a similar amount. In a week where markets are now watching the February monthly payrolls report with an element of nervousness, those numbers will resonate. And with Wall Street in the peculiar position of finding many of its main stock indexes (.IXIC) , opens new tab, (.RUT) , opens new tab in the red for the year going into March, there is a lingering concern that market turbulence will drain household and business confidence further. Even for those who think America's economy can still be a relative winner from all the trade tensions and policy upheavals, there's a reminder that global economic damage can boomerang on it. Some 41% of overall revenues from the S&P500 (.SPX) , opens new tab firms are sourced overseas, according to Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok. Today's key chart Washington's freezing of military aid to Ukraine overnight and Europe's commitment to pick up the tab in support of Ukraine are set to be key drivers of financial markets this week. German and European defence stocks have soared (.SXPARO) , opens new tab and the euro has risen amid hopes for an economic boost from rapid rearmament. Today's events to watch Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/global-markets-view-usa-2025-03-04/
