2026-01-09 11:52

Everything Mike Dolan and the ROI team are excited to read, watch and listen to over the weekend. From the Editor Sign up here. Hello Morning Bid readers! Welcome to the first week of the year – and what a week it has been. The audacious U.S. raid to arrest Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has dominated headlines, along with President Donald Trump’s renewed talks about “acquiring” Greenland – potentially via payments to the Arctic island’s citizens. The broad market implications of all this geopolitical drama have been limited thus far, with the S&P 500 ending essentially flat on Thursday after moving around only modestly this week. However, a U.S. aerospace and defence index hit an all-time high yesterday, as did European defence shares. Of course, when news of the U.S. strike in Caracas hit on Saturday, most investor attention turned to the energy markets. Venezuela (as I’m sure you’ve read this week) is home to the world’s largest oil reserves, some 300 billion barrels, around one-fifth of the global stock. Crude prices tumbled earlier this week, with Brent closing below $60 a barrel on Wednesday on expectations that more oil will be added to an already well supplied market. But prices have since recovered. The initial winners of the U.S. actions in the Caribbean will likely be oil refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, which were built decades ago to process heavy-grade crude – the type Venezuela exports. Indeed, Caracas has already agreed to export up to $2 billion worth of Venezuelan oil to the U.S. – a shift that will come largely at the expense of China, which became the main importer of Venezuelan oil after Trump imposed sanctions on the country’s energy industry in 2019. The potential to increase Venezuela's oil production is enormous, but doing so could take years and billions of dollars. So even though President Trump has claimed that U.S. energy companies will have the opportunity to revive Venezuela’s derelict oil industry, it’s an offer they may want to refuse. While there were likely many motives behind America’s actions in Caracas, one little-discussed factor could be the White House's concerns about the waning global prominence of the "petrodollar" – a tool that has long helped the U.S. maintain its dominance in the global financial system. Ultimately, Trump’s words and actions this week suggest that investors may want to start taking the White House’s national security strategy released last year a bit more seriously. Away from geopolitics, markets this week got some of the first “clean” U.S. labor market data since the government shutdown last fall – but the picture it painted is far from clear. The JOLTS report showed that U.S. job openings fell to a 14-month low , opens new tab in November while hiring remained sluggish. And ADP's national employment report , opens new tab noted that private employment rose by 41,000 jobs last month after dropping by 29,000 in November. The clearest snapshot of the U.S. labor market will be released on Friday: the December non-farm payrolls. They’re expected to show a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.5% from 4.6% in November. , opens new tab None of this data is likely to move the needle much for the Federal Reserve, however, as the deeply divided policymaking body considers the future path for interest rates. And, ultimately, the biggest news for markets on Friday may be the Supreme Court ruling on the legality of President Donald Trump's global tariffs – which could come later today. Finally, in merger news, the metals world today learned that Rio Tinto is reportedly in early talks to buy Glencore in what could create the world's largest mining company with a combined market value of nearly $207 billion. For more commodities and markets news, check out Reuters Open Interest , opens new tab. You can learn why China has found itself in an unusual competition with the U.S. over spare copper and learn what may be most likely to spoil Wall Street’s party in 2026. As we head into the weekend, check out some reading, listening and watching recommendations from the ROI team. I’d love to hear from you, so please reach out to me at [email protected] , opens new tab . , opens new tab This weekend, we're reading... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance Columnist: In Eurasia Group founder and president Ian Bremmer’s latest piece for Project Syndicate, he writes, “This will be a tipping-point year. The biggest source of global instability won’t be China, Russia, Iran, or any of the 60-odd conflicts burning across the planet (the most since World War II). It will be the United States. , opens new tab” GAVIN MAGUIRE, ROI Global Energy Transition Columnist: This incisive analysis by JPMorgan’s Michael Cembalest explores Venezuela’s oil production and its potential to complement US refinery capacity for heavy and medium grades of crude , opens new tab. ANDY HOME, ROI Metals Columnist: This analysis of European strategic autonomy across defense sectors from Prima Sidera is very timely, given Trump's call for European countries to spend more , opens new tab. RON BOUSSO, ROI Energy Columnist: Daniel Yergin’s The Prize , opens new tab is the definitive account of the history of the oil industry. I pulled this classic off my shelf this week to refresh my mind on how oil dominated the foreign policy of world powers throughout the twentieth century. Also, check out the book’s YouTube page , opens new tab for some great visuals. We're listening to... ANNA SZYMANSKI, ROI Editor-in-Charge: Check out the latest episode of Reuters Econ World to hear ROI’s Ron Bousso discuss how the U.S. actions in Venezuela will impact energy markets and why the world may be entering a new era of resource nationalism. And we're watching... JAMIE MCGEEVER, ROI Finance Columnist: New Yorker staff writer Jonathan Blitzer went on the Ezra Klein podcast , opens new tab to discuss the regional and global implications of U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to depose Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and take control of the country’s oil. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab Opinions expressed are those of the authors. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles , opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias. Want to receive the Morning Bid in your inbox every weekday morning? Sign up for the newsletter here. You can find ROI on the Reuters website , opens new tab, and you can follow us on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/global-markets-view-usa-2026-01-09/

2026-01-09 11:35

Ambani's Reliance Jio IPO is India's most awaited in 2026 Reliance waiting for regulation change as it is eager to list only 2.5%, sources say Jefferies has valued the business at $180 billion Ambani has said target for listing is first half of 2026 LONDON/MUMBAI/HONG KONG, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Reliance Jio Platforms is considering an initial public offering this year that would float 2.5% of the company, people familiar with the matter said, a move that could make it the country's largest-ever IPO worth more than $4 billion. The company, led by Mukesh Ambani, is the parent of India's largest telecom operator Reliance Jio - with more than 500 million users. Its debut is the country's most highly anticipated IPO this year. Sign up here. In November, investment bank Jefferies estimated that Reliance Jio's valuation stood at $180 billion. At that valuation, a 2.5% stake sale would raise $4.5 billion, dwarfing Hyundai Motor India's (HYUN.NS) , opens new tab $3.3 billion IPO in 2024. Over the past six years, Jio has diversified into artificial intelligence and raised funds from well-known investors including KKR (KKR.N) , opens new tab, General Atlantic, Silver Lake and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. Reliance would like to list only 2.5% of Jio's shares given the large size of the company, the sources said, even though a proposal from India's market regulator to reduce the minimum size of share sales for large companies seeking IPOs to 2.5% from 5% is awaiting approval from the finance ministry. "The preference is to list 2.5% at this point if the law gets changed as a smaller amount creates more pricing tension," one of the sources with direct knowledge said, adding that some bankers were pitching a valuation of $200 billion to $240 billion for the business, though Reliance hasn't decided on a firm number. Reliance (RELI.NS) , opens new tab did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. The sources declined to be named as they were not authorised to speak publicly. Typically around 75% to 80% of Jio Platforms annual revenues come from its telecoms business. RED-HOT INDIAN IPO MARKET It has not been decided if the Jio IPO would be a so-called offer-for-sale, which allows existing shareholders to sell their shares to the public, or if it would also involve the issuance of new stock. Hyundai's India IPO, for example, was an offer-for-sale and did not raise new funds. The Jio listing would add to strong momentum in India's IPO market over the last couple of years; it ranked as the world's No. 2 primary equity issuance market in 2025, raising $21.6 billion as of December 18, according to LSEG data. Reliance also plans to list its retail unit, but that is unlikely before 2027 or 2028, sources have previously told Reuters. In 2019, Ambani first flagged plans to list Jio within five years. Last year, Reuters reported that he delayed the offering beyond 2025 as the company wanted a higher valuation by expanding into other niche digital businesses. TWO BANKS WORKING ON PROSPECTUS Reliance Jio is also set to lock horns with Elon Musk, who is expected to launch the Starlink internet service in India in the coming months. Jio has also partnered Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab to develop AI infrastructure. In August, Ambani said Jio would list in the "first half of 2026". The listing timeline depends on market conditions, one of the sources said. Although formal appointments have yet to be made, bankers from Morgan Stanley (MS.N) , opens new tab and India's Kotak are already working with Reliance on drafting the Jio IPO papers, which can be a drawn-out process, a fifth source with direct knowledge of the situation said. Reliance is waiting for the 2.5% public float rule to be cleared by the finance ministry and the size of the sale could change in the coming months, the person added. Reliance expects many foreign investors who invested in the company in recent years to seek an exit via the IPO, the person said. Morgan Stanley and Kotak did not respond to Reuters requests for comment. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/ambanis-reliance-jio-considers-25-public-offering-2026-india-ipo-sources-say-2026-01-09/

2026-01-09 11:31

Deal aims to offset U.S. tariffs, reduce reliance on China France opposes deal due to impact on domestic farmers Accord will still require European Parliament's approval Safeguards include import controls, crisis fund for farmers BRUSSELS, Jan 9 (Reuters) - EU ambassadors gave provisional approval on Friday to the signing of the bloc's largest ever free trade accord with South American group Mercosur, over 25 years since negotiations began and after months of wrangling to secure key member states' backing, according to three EU diplomats and sources. The European Commission, which concluded negotiations a year ago, and countries such as Germany and Spain argue it is a vital part of an EU push to unlock new markets to offset business lost from U.S. tariffs and to reduce reliance on China by securing access to critical minerals. Sign up here. Opponents led by France, the European Union's largest agricultural producer, say the agreement will jack up imports of cheap food products, including beef, poultry and sugar, undercutting domestic farmers. Farmers have launched protests across the EU, blocking French and Belgian highways and marching in Poland on Friday. Ambassadors from the EU's 27 member states indicated their governments' positions on Friday with at least 15 countries representing 65% of the bloc's total population voting in favour, as required for approval, the EU sources and diplomats said. EU capitals have been given until 5 p.m. Brussels time (1600 GMT) to provide written confirmation of their votes. This will clear the way for Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to sign the agreement with Mercosur partners - Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay and Uruguay - possibly as early as next week. The European Parliament will also need to approve the accord before it can enter force. FRANCE SAYS THE BATTLE IS NOT OVER The free trade agreement would be the European Union's biggest in terms of tariff reduction, removing 4 billion euros ($4.66 billion) of duties on its exports. The Mercosur countries have high tariffs, such as 35% on car parts, 28% on dairy products and 27% on wines. The EU and Mercosur will hope to expand evenly split goods trade worth 111 billion euros in 2024. EU exports are dominated by machinery, chemicals and transport equipment, and Mercosur's are focused on agricultural products, minerals, pulp and paper. To win over deal sceptics, the European Commission has put in place safeguards that can suspend imports of sensitive farm produce. It has strengthened import controls, notably regarding pesticide residues, established a crisis fund, accelerated support for farmers, and has pledged to cut import duties on fertilisers. The concessions were not enough to win over Poland or France, but Italy shifted from a 'no' in December to a 'yes' on Friday, according to one EU diplomat. French Agriculture Minister Annie Genevard has said the battle was not over and has pledged to fight for a rejection by the EU assembly, where the vote could be tight. European environmental groups also oppose the accord, with Friends of the Earth calling it a "climate-wrecking" deal. German Social Democrat Bernd Lange, the chair of parliament's trade committee, expressed confidence that the deal would be passed, with a final vote most likely in April or May. ($1 = 0.8587 euros) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/eu-countries-expected-clear-signing-record-mercosur-trade-deal-2026-01-09/

2026-01-09 11:26

Agreements to provide up to 6.6 gigawatts of power, Meta says Meta strikes 20-year power purchase agreements with Vistra Supports development of small nuclear reactors WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - Meta Platforms (META.O) , opens new tab said on Friday it struck 20-year agreements to buy power from three Vistra (VST.N) , opens new tab nuclear plants in the U.S. heartland and develop projects with two companies hoping to build small modular reactors. Shares of Oklo (OKLO.N) , opens new tab surged nearly 20%, whereas Vistra (VST.N) , opens new tab rose about 8% in premarket trade. Sign up here. Meta and other Big Tech companies want to secure long-term electricity supplies as artificial intelligence and data centers increase U.S. power demand for the first time in two decades. The company said in a blog it will purchase power from Vistra's Perry and Davis-Besse plants in Ohio and Beaver Valley plant in Pennsylvania. Meta said the deal will help finance expansion at the Ohio plants and lengthen the lifespan of the plants, which are licensed to run through at least 2036 with one of two reactors at Beaver Valley licensed through 2047. Meta will also help develop small modular reactors planned by Oklo and TerraPower, the latter of which is backed by billionaire Bill Gates. SMR backers say the reactors will one day save costs because they can be built in factories instead of on site. Critics say they will struggle to achieve economies of scale similar to current large reactors. There are no U.S. SMRs in commercial operations yet and the plants will require permits. Joel Kaplan, Meta's chief global affairs officer, said the plans along with its agreement last year with Constellation to keep an Illinois reactor operating for 20 years will "make Meta one of the most significant corporate purchasers of nuclear energy in American history." The agreements will provide up to 6.6 gigawatts of nuclear power by 2035, Meta said. The size of a typical nuclear power plant is about 1 GW. In 2024 Meta sought interest from nuclear power developers for 1 to 4 gigawatts of nuclear power. Meta will help fund TerraPower's development of two reactors to generate up to 690 megawatts of power as early as 2032. The agreement also provides Meta with rights for energy from up to six other TerraPower reactors by 2035. TerraPower President and CEO Chris Levesque said the agreement will support rapid deployment of reactors. Meta said its partnership with Oklo will help develop up to 1.2 GW of energy in Ohio as early as 2030. The support will help "early procurement and development", said Jacob DeWitte, Oklo’s co-founder and CEO. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/meta-strikes-nuclear-power-agreements-with-three-companies-2026-01-09/

2026-01-09 11:18

Investors skeptical about Venezuela's political stability and investment costs Largest U.S. oil major Exxon says Venezuela currently uinvestible Chevron, ConocoPhillips cautious about rushing into Venezuela investments, sources say WASHINGTON, Jan 9 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump met with executives from some of the world's largest oil companies at the White House on Friday to discuss Venezuela, saying he wants them to invest $100 billion in the country to vastly expand its production. Trump has named oil as the priority for his strategy for the South American nation after U.S. forces seized its leader Nicolas Maduro in an overnight raid on its capital January 3. Sign up here. "American companies will have the opportunity to rebuild Venezuela's rotting energy infrastructure and eventually increase oil production to levels never, ever seen before," Trump said at the opening of the meeting. He was flanked by top executives from Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab, ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab, Chevron Corp (CVX.N) , opens new tab and others. "We're going to be making the decision as to which oil companies are going to go in," the Republican president said. He praised an agreement with Venezuela's interim leaders to provide 50 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S., where numerous refineries are specially equipped to refine it. Trump said he expects such deliveries to continue indefinitely. "One of the things the United States gets out of this will be even lower energy prices," he said. U.S. forces have continued to apprehend Venezuelan oil tankers at sea to enforce an embargo. The fifth such seizure was announced on Friday. Trump administration officials have said they need to control Venezuela’s oil sales and revenues indefinitely to ensure the country acts in America’s interests, including by reducing corruption and drug trafficking. Some Democratic lawmakers have criticized this approach as extortion. Industry analysts have also warned about political instability as the country treads a fine line between denouncing Maduro's capture and appeasing the U.S. "UNINVESTABLE" Companies including Chevron, Vitol and Trafigura are competing for U.S. licenses to market Venezuela’s existing crude oil, but oil majors are hesitant to commit to big, longer-term investments in Venezuela due to high costs and political instability. Exxon CEO Darren Woods said at the White House meeting that the company sees Venezuela as currently "uninvestable" and needs to see significant changes to return there. "We've had our assets seized there twice, and so you can imagine to re-enter a third time would require some pretty significant changes," he said. "We're confident that with this administration and President Trump, working hand in hand with the Venezuelan government, that those changes can be put in place," he said. Exxon (XOM.N) , opens new tab and ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab departed Venezuela nearly 20 years ago after their assets were nationalized. Chevron Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said the company is committed to investments in Venezuela. Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab is the only U.S. oil major still operating in the country. Several smaller independents and private equity-backed players were also invited to the meeting, including some with links to Colorado, home state of Energy Secretary Chris Wright. Many of those executives praised Trump for his policies on Venezuela, and said they were prepared to invest in the country and market its oil. Decades of underinvestment have eroded production in Venezuela, an OPEC member that boasts the world's largest oil reserves but accounts for only about 1% of global supply. Venezuela pumped as much as 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s, more than triple current levels. Trump said at the meeting that the U.S. would guarantee the physical and financial security of oil companies investing in Venezuela, but did not provide details. On Friday morning, Energy Secretary Chris Wright said in an interview on Fox News ahead of the White House talks that there is "a real possibility" the U.S. could use its Export-Import Bank to help fund large oil projects in Venezuela. This could reduce financial risks for companies that decide to invest there. Trump added the ongoing discussions with oil companies are aimed at securing commitments. "We have to get them to invest and then we have to get their money back as quickly as we can," Trump said. "And then we can divvy it all up between Venezuela, the United States, and them. I think it's simple. I think the formula is simple." https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-oil-firms-juggle-venezuela-opportunity-investor-concern-ahead-white-house-2026-01-09/

2026-01-09 11:13

Jan 9 (Reuters) - The White House is convening a meeting on Friday with major U.S. and international oil companies to discuss potential investment in Venezuela’s energy sector, as the administration weighs ways to revive crude output in the sanctions-hit country, according to a White House official. The companies include producers, refiners, traders and oilfield services firms with past or potential exposure to Venezuela. Also attending are Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Energy Secretary Chris Wright and Interior Secretary Doug Burgum, the White House official said. Sign up here. Here is a list of companies expected to attend, according to a White House official. - Chevron Corp (CVX.N) , opens new tab - Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab - ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab - Continental Resources - Halliburton (HAL.N) , opens new tab - HKN Inc. - Valero Energy Corp (VLO.N) , opens new tab - Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC.N) , opens new tab - Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab - Trafigura - Vitol Americas - Repsol - Eni (ENI.MI) , opens new tab - Aspect Holdings - Tallgrass Energy - Raisa Energy - Hilcorp Energy https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/white-house-gathers-oil-majors-traders-drillers-venezuela-2026-01-09/