2025-02-27 04:39

BENGALURU, Feb 27 (Reuters) - India's battered benchmark stock indices are set for a slow and partial recovery this year from their worst consecutive monthly rout in nearly three decades, according to a Reuters poll of equity analysts who were far more pessimistic than three months ago. The blue-chip Nifty 50 index has sunk about 14% from its all-time high in late September 2024 and after five straight months of losses, including February, is teetering on the edge of its longest losing streak since July-November 1996, when it plunged more than 25%. Economic growth in Asia's third-largest economy slowed sharply this fiscal year as high inflation and stagnant incomes squeezed household spending. That has dented corporate profits and triggered a $25 billion foreign investor sell-off since October, flipping Asia's top-performing stock index to one of the worst. A weakening rupee, hitting record lows nearly every other day, has made India's already expensive stock market even less attractive, further dimming hopes of a quick rebound. The Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab index is forecast to rise more than 6% to 24,000 by mid-2025 from Tuesday's close of 22,547.55 and reach 25,689 by end-2025, the February 13-26 poll of 25 analysts showed. Forecasts ranged from 19,000, signifying a 16% drop, to 28,800, a 28% rise, by end-2025. The BSE Sensex is expected to climb to 78,500 by mid-2025 and 80,850 by end-2025, still well below its all-time high of 85,978.25 reached in September, the poll showed. Those marked the first downgrades since the November 2023 survey. A majority of analysts - 16 of 23 - said another correction in the next three months was unlikely, while the other seven said it was likely. 'GRADUAL RECOVERY' "The high growth we saw last year was never built to last - that was clear after the (July-September) GDP and earnings numbers. Markets will recover gradually after bottoming out in March, but let's be real: that'll be driven by buy-the-dip trades and selling exhaustion. I don't see us returning to last year's highs soon," said Yogesh Kalinge, associate director of research at A.K. Capital Services. Kalinge was among only about one-quarter of analysts polled by Reuters in August 2024 who predicted a market correction in the following months. "Valuations remain stretched, corporate earnings won't stage a comeback when consumption is still sluggish and on the growth front, nothing has truly improved. However, with time, markets could see a gradual recovery," he added. Nifty 50 companies have reported only 5% earnings growth last quarter, the third straight quarter of single-digit gains after two years of strong double-digit expansion. Asked how corporate earnings growth in 2025 would compare to last year, 15 of 24 analysts said it would be slower and nine said faster. "Inflationary pressures and rising unemployment may weigh on export-driven sectors like IT, pharma and specialty chemicals. Stress in retail loans, especially unsecured credit, is emerging as a risk," said Ajit Mishra, senior vice president of research at Religare Broking. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman's February 1 budget introduced tax exemptions on annual income up to 1.2 million rupees and there are expectations for modest easing by the Reserve Bank of India this year to boost household consumption. However, several analysts in the poll were sceptical about its immediate impact on consumer spending and corporate earnings. "Until that reflects in company revenues, it's just a feel-good factor from the budget. Real change takes time - people don't just alter their spending habits overnight," said Anil Manghnani, director at Modern Shares and Stockbrokers. "The RBI is expected to cut rates further to push growth. If rates are falling, that's more worrying. It means demand is weak... Markets should recognize this reality, but they won't. After all, the stock market runs on greed and fear." (Other stories from the Reuters Q1 global stock markets poll package) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-stocks-limp-back-partial-recovery-deepest-rout-decades-2025-02-27/

2025-02-27 04:17

SHANGHAI, Feb 26 (Reuters) - Chinese authorities are rolling out fresh measures to limit capital flight, including increased scrutiny of overseas investments, as the yuan currency comes under mounting pressure. President Donald Trump's tariffs threats are heightening Sino-U.S. tensions and discouraging inbound foreign investment. The yuan has lost 2.2% to the dollar since Trump's election win in November. China has increased scrutiny of overseas investments by domestic companies and their use of proceeds from Hong Kong share sales, Bloomberg reported citing unidentified sources this week. Meanwhile, China's commercial banks sold the most foreign exchange to their clients since July last month, official data showed, showing rising demand for foreign currency. The conversion ratio - a gauge that measures households and corporates' willingness to sell dollars for yuan - fell to the lowest level in seven months. Xinquan Chen, an economist at Goldman Sachs, said the current account showed sizeable currency outflows in January. The wide gap between higher U.S. interest rates and falling Chinese yields has been a factor eroding the yuan's appeal with onshore investors. That yield gap hit its widest-ever level in January. "Weak domestic demand and low interest rates present major structural headwinds for the yuan," said Alvin Tan, head of Asia FX strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Dollar supplies onshore, too, have fallen as more businesses borrow cheaply in yuan. Outstanding foreign exchange loans fell to their lowest level in over 13 years in January, while foreign exchange deposits grew to the highest level since April 2023. Lynn Song, chief economist for Greater China at ING, said the uptick in FX deposits at the start of the year is seasonal. But "until or unless there's a sustainable turnaround in investor confidence, FX deposits are likely to move higher overall this year." The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been guiding its daily official midpoint yuan guidance stronger than market expectations since mid-November, which markets interpret as a sign of unease over the yuan's decline. China's major state-owned banks, too, have been constantly seen selling dollars to support the currency. Their support for the yuan and the expectation China will not let the currency weaken sharply have anchored yuan values in the forwards market, for now. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/china-steps-up-scrutiny-capital-flows-yuan-depreciates-2025-02-27/

2025-02-27 04:07

SINGAPORE, Feb 27 (Reuters) - Iron ore futures prices closed lower on Thursday, pressured by escalating tariff measures against Chinese steel, though solid demand for the steel-making ingredient in top consumer China cushioned the downward trend. The most-traded May iron ore contract on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange (DCE) ended daytime trade 0.8% lower at 805 yuan ($110.77) a metric ton. The benchmark March iron ore on the Singapore Exchange was trading 0.93% lower at $104.9 a ton. The outlook for Chinese steel exports is uncertain, as more countries impose tariffs on Chinese steel products. After U.S. President Donald Trump's decision earlier this month to impose 25% tariffs on all steel products, Vietnam announced a temporary anti-dumping levy on Chinese steel, with South Korea provisionally deciding to impose up to 38% tariffs on Chinese steel plate imports. The EU is also considering steel import curbs following Trump's tariff threats. Still, daily crude steel output in mid-February among member mills of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) hit a seven-month high of 2.15 million tons, said Chinese consultancy Mysteel, citing statistics from CISA. Additionally, inventories of imported iron ore sintering fines declined 3.8% wekk-on-week, indicating larger consumption of the steel feedstock, Mysteel said in a separate note. Steel benchmarks on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose. Rebar climbed nearly 0.5%, hot-rolled coil was up 0.35%, wire rod edged 0.54% higher and stainless steel gained 0.69%. Other steelmaking ingredients on the DCE gained ground, with coking coal and coke up 0.87% and 0.75%, respectively. ($1 = 7.2675 Chinese yuan) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iron-ore-falters-higher-imports-chinese-steel-export-concerns-2025-02-27/

2025-02-27 03:12

MUMBAI, Feb 27 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee, having suffered its worst day in three weeks in the previous session, is poised to open marginally higher on Thursday helped by a fall in U.S. yields and a range-bound dollar. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 87.14-87.16 to the U.S. dollar compared with 87.21 on Tuesday. Indian financial markets were closed on Wednesday. The rupee dropped 0.6% in the previous session on the back of dollar demand tied to the expiry of derivatives contract, according to bankers. The Reserve Bank of India had to step in to support the currency. After Tuesday's "decent" decline, "it would be normal to see a bit of hesitancy" to push the rupee further down, a currency trader at a bank said. "Having said that, the direction is very apparent and we should see 87.50 shortly," he said. US YIELDS FALL MORE The rupee will take mild comfort from the ongoing rally in the U.S. Treasuries, which pushed the 10-year yield to the lowest in more than two months on Tuesday. The 10-year yield is now 50 basis points off the January highs and near the pre-U.S. election level. Signs of deceleration in the U.S. economy and uncertainty about President Donald Trump's tariffs have prompted investors to pile into U.S. Treasuries. Trump on Wednesday rekindled hopes for yet another one-month pause on new tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada, saying they could take effect on April 2. The market has reduced tariff-related risk premium for now, MUFG Bank said in a note. The bank reckons the market is "currently underpricing the risk of more U.S. tariff actions in the coming months." The dollar index is well off its recent peak amid the drop in U.S. yields. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.40; onshore one-month forward premium at 16.50 paise ** Dollar index at 106.60 ** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $72.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.28% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $659.7mln worth of Indian shares on Feb. 24 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors bought a net $22.1mln worth of Indian bonds on Feb. 24 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-see-slight-relief-following-selloff-drop-us-yields-help-2025-02-27/

2025-02-27 00:46

HOUSTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - U.S. imports of crude oil from Venezuela averaged 222,000 barrels per day (bpd) in the first 11 months of 2024, according to U.S. Energy Information Administration data, making it the fourth largest crude supplier to the United States. While Venezuela's oil accounted for only 3.5% of total U.S. crude imports in November, it was about 13% of crude oil imported by U.S. Gulf Coast refineries, according to the EIA. About 90% of all crude from Venezuela last year headed to the U.S. Gulf Coast, and the remaining 10% went to the East Coast, the data showed. Refiner Valero Energy (VLO.N) , opens new tab was the top buyer of Venezuelan crude in the United States in the period, accounting for 44% of the total, followed by oil major Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab with 22%. PBF Energy (PBF.N) , opens new tab bought about 14% of the crude. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/top-buyers-venezuelan-crude-oil-united-states-2025-02-27/

2025-02-27 00:35

WASHINGTON, Feb 26 (Reuters) - The Federal Bureau of Investigation said on Wednesday that North Korea was responsible for the theft of approximately $1.5 billion in virtual assets from cryptocurrency exchange ByBit. The agency said it refers to this specific North Korean malicious cyber activity as "TraderTraitor." "TraderTraitor actors are proceeding rapidly and have converted some of the stolen assets to bitcoin and other virtual assets dispersed across thousands of addresses on multiple blockchains," it said in a public service announcement. The FBI said it is expected the assets will be further laundered and eventually converted to fiat currency. ByBit said on Friday an attacker gained control of an ether wallet and transferred the holdings to an unidentified address. The exchange caters to more than 60 million users worldwide and offers access to various cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and ether. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/cybersecurity/fbi-says-north-korea-was-responsible-15-billion-bybit-hack-2025-02-27/