2025-02-25 11:51
Feb 25 (Reuters) - Tens of thousands of U.S. government workers have been fired in recent weeks, according to a Reuters tally of announcements tracking President Donald Trump's plan to shrink the federal workforce. So far, few indications of those lost jobs have appeared in the various formal measures of the U.S. job market. Economists will be keeping an eye on the data because federal government hiring has been a steady contributor to overall U.S. employment growth as the pace of private-sector hiring has eased. Over the last two years through January, the ranks of non-U.S. Postal Service federal workers as a share of overall payroll employment has edged up to 1.52% from 1.47%. Despite that rise, the federal civilian worker share of total U.S. employment is near its historic low of 1.4% from late 2000. The federal workforce share peaked at just over 4% in the early 1950s. Also, Trump's cuts - being carried out under the direction of Tesla CEO Elon Musk's Department of Government Efficiency - have not just been aimed at those directly on government payrolls but also at private companies and individuals performing contract work for the government. A 2020 Brookings Institution study , opens new tab estimated that for every one federal employee there are two contractors. With that in mind, Torsten Slok, chief economist at Apollo Global Management, , opens new tab estimated that with a "consensus" estimate of ultimately 300,000 DOGE-related federal job cuts, the total employment reduction could be closer to 1 million. So when will these reductions start to materialize in the official data? Here's a guide: WEEKLY JOBLESS CLAIMS Each Thursday, the Labor Department's Employment and Training Administration reports the number of people who the previous week had filed for state unemployment benefits for the first time. The report includes a running tally of all those who continue to collect benefits beyond one week, a figure called "continued claims" and reported with a one-week lag. Federal employees who have lost their jobs, though, are not included in the state claims data. They are tracked separately under the Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) program, and the data is reported with a one-week lag. In the latest week ended February 8, 613 initial claims had been filed by former federal workers, and that figure has not climbed above 1,000 in more than two years. It also remains below the level typically seen during comparable seasons in the years immediately before the COVID-19 pandemic. In the previous week, 7,110 former federal workers were receiving continued benefits, around the same number seen at this time of year in the last two years. Moreover, those continued claims tended to be much higher during comparable times of year before the pandemic. Since the Trump and Musk cuts are not aimed only at those earning a government paycheck, some indications of the extent of job losses may start appearing soon in data from individual states with high concentrations of jobs supported by federal government activities. Washington and the neighboring states of Maryland and Virginia are home to hundreds of thousands of workers whose employers perform work under federal contracts, making them key locations to watch. Only Washington has shown an uptrend in new benefits filings. In the latest week ended February 15, the advance number of new filings was about 1,700 and the highest in nearly two years. It is also well above the level typically seen in the years just before the pandemic, with the exception of a short-lived spike in January 2019 due to a government shutdown over a budget impasse. New claims in Maryland and Virginia, meanwhile, have both averaged about 2,800 per week since Trump took office on January 20, both within the trend range over the last year. Texas, Florida, California and Georgia also have high numbers of federal workers and associated contractors. There are some caveats. Not everyone who loses a job is eligible for jobless benefits, and this includes certain contract workers. So some job losses will never appear in the weekly claims data. Also, not everyone files for benefits immediately after losing a job - or at all. Many people don't file for a week or more after their job was eliminated, and some among them will find new work promptly and never have a need to seek government support. That said, a generally slowing job market may mean that final dynamic is less at play this time around. NONFARM PAYROLLS Each month, typically on the first Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. employment situation, which updates the unemployment rate as well as the total level of employment and levels and changes by sector, including local, state and federal government employment. The next report is due on March 7, covering February. It is based on a survey conducted during the week when the 12th day of the month falls. In this case, that was a week when news reports about firings within the federal government began circulating widely, so there is a chance that the level of non-USPS civilian employment was affected by that development. Net federal hiring outside the postal service totaled 3,700 in January. It has averaged about 5,700 a month over the last two years and has shrunk in just one month in that span. It is unclear whether the reports of firings that surfaced during the week of February 9-16 would have been made official and reported in that week's BLS survey. Trump shrunk federal civilian employment by about 17,000 workers in his first year of office during his first term, including about 13,000 in his first three months. But it began growing again, and by the time the pandemic struck he had overseen an expansion in the federal workforce of 60,000 people. JOB OPENINGS AND LABOR TURNOVER SURVEY The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) measures the number of posted job vacancies on the last day of each month, and also estimates the monthly number of gross hirings and job separations, including people who quit, are laid off, or leave for another reason such as retirement. It is not as timely as the payrolls report. The next report, for instance, will be issued on March 11, covering January. As a snapshot of where things stood at the end of the month, it could reflect Trump's January 20 hiring freeze order, which directed that all job postings be removed and many job offers rescinded. The latest figure, for December, showed 140,000 federal government job vacancies, roughly in line with the monthly average over the term of former President Joe Biden. Monthly federal openings totaled about 110,000 during Trump's first term from January 2017 to January 2021. Gross federal hiring, meanwhile, totaled 30,000 in December - unchanged for three months and the lowest number since May 2018. STATE AND LOCAL PAYROLLS REPORTS The BLS also provides monthly state and local employment reports. The next State Employment and Unemployment report will be issued on March 17, covering January. This report shows employment levels, job gains and losses and unemployment rates across all 50 states, Washington, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. It shows government employment levels but combines state, local and federal government figures. Still, it will be another resource for indications of government contractors shedding jobs, especially in areas of high concentrations of these employers. However, it is not likely that this will make itself evident before the report for February is issued in mid-April. The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary, meanwhile, tracks employment across nearly 400 metropolitan areas across the U.S. This has an even longer delay, of two months, and shows payroll employment levels, changes and jobless rates but does not show employment sector activity. The earliest this might be expected to reflect the effects of federal firings at the local level will be in late April when the report for February is issued. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/when-will-mass-us-government-firings-show-up-data-2025-02-25/
2025-02-25 11:47
FRANKFURT, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Germany's gas hub Trading Hub Europe (THE) and industry representatives are in talks with the German government on loosening rules on the country's gas storage filling levels, a Uniper (UN0k.DE) , opens new tab official said on Tuesday. "We are talking to THE," said chief commercial officer Carsten Poppinga at an earnings press conference, adding that among the proposals under discussion was loosening storage targets of 90% to perhaps 80% by November 1. Speculation that Germany may ask the state-mandated THE to refill caverns with the help of subsidies had driven up European gas prices in recent weeks, prompting policymakers more flexibility in terms of filling requirements. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/german-gas-hub-industry-talks-about-loosening-storage-rules-uniper-says-2025-02-25/
2025-02-25 11:47
LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - The pound held just shy of a two-month high against the dollar on Tuesday, and was little changed against the euro in fairly calm trading as markets looked to remarks from the Bank of England's chief economist. The pound was last at $1.2632, flat on the day, having touched $1.269, its highest since mid-December, the day before. That rise and its retreat on Tuesday were largely in line with broad moves in the dollar, which has been weakening on soft U.S. data, but received a small safe haven boost on Tuesday on President Donald Trump's latest tariff threats. Against the euro, the pound was a whisker softer at 82.94 pence, , with trading little moved by the German election and conservative winner Friedrich Merz's bid to form a government. Traders were keeping an eye on Bank of England chief economist Huw Pill, due to make closing remarks at a conference around 1400 GMT, for any policy insights. Pill "sits on the hawkish side of the spectrum and any dovish comments can have a tangible impact on rate expectations", said analysts at ING. Markets are currently pricing two further 25 basis point rate cuts by the Bank of England. Pill's fellow policy maker, standout dove Swati Dhingra, on Monday challenged market interpretations that the BoE had signalled there would be one 25 basis point rate cut per quarter with its remarks that rate cuts would be "gradual". "I think everybody has a different definition. That's not my definition, clearly," she said. The BoE cut rates by 25 basis points this month, though Dhingra voted for a 50 bp cut. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/sterling-steady-before-bank-england-economist-remarks-2025-02-25/
2025-02-25 11:44
LISBON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Portuguese oil company Galp (GALP.LS) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it had found significant presence of light oil and gas condensate in a fifth well in Namibia's Mopane field, opening up new exploration opportunities that are sending its shares sharply higher. Galp's Mopane offshore discovery was initially estimated to hold at least 10 billion barrels of oil and gas equivalent. The company drilled four wells there in 2024 to explore and appraise a first hub in the northwest area of the Mopane complex, and a fifth well last month, this time in the field's southeast area. It said in a statement that the new well, Mopane-3X, 18 km (11.18 miles) away from the first, targeted two stacked prospects - AVO-10 and AVO-13 - and a deeper sand at 1,200 metre water depth. "Preliminary data confirms light oil and significant gas condensate columns between AVO-10, and light oil columns in AVO-13 and the deeper sand, in high-quality sandstones," it said, also pointing to high pressure and permeability as well as low oil viscosity. Galp shares were up 7% in morning trading and leading gains on the pan-European Stoxx 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab. Jefferies said in a research note that the well should de-risk the 10 billion boe resource estimate for the Mopane Complex and support the case for a multi-Floating Production Storage and Offloading development. Galp is looking to sell half of its 80% stake in Mopane's Petroleum Exploration Licence 83 to a player who would become its operator, although it has said it is in no rush. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/galps-new-well-namibias-mopane-finds-more-oil-shares-rise-2025-02-25/
2025-02-25 11:34
TOKYO, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Japan's automobile industry association urged the government on Tuesday to try to shield Japanese automakers from tariffs that the United States may impose on imports of autos and parts. The Japan Automobile Manufacturers' Association is worried about damage to the economies of both countries if U.S. President Donald Trump's administration proceeds with hefty tariffs on auto imports from Japan, Mexico and Canada, JAMA Chairman Masanori Katayama said. Trump said last week he wants to impose 25% tariffs on imports of autos as soon as April 2. Separate 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum are slated to start on March 12. Katayama, also chairman of Isuzu Motors (7202.T) , opens new tab, made his remarks at the start of a meeting with Trade and Industry Minister Yoji Muto in Tokyo. Top executives from automakers such as Toyota (7203.T) , opens new tab, Honda (7267.T) , opens new tab and Nissan (7201.T) , opens new tab were also present. Japanese automakers are vulnerable to any extra tariffs Trump may impose, particularly on auto imports. The U.S. remains the top market by vehicle sales for Toyota, Honda and Nissan, which all make some of their most popular U.S. models in either Canada or Mexico. Smaller firms such as Subaru (7270.T) , opens new tab and Mazda (7261.T) , opens new tab are also exposed. During the meeting, which was closed to media, auto industry executives expressed worries about not being able to pass on higher costs from higher U.S. tariffs and about their economic fallout, Muto told reporters afterwards. Muto met separately with representatives from Japan's steel and aluminum industries about the tariff issue earlier on Tuesday. Japan Iron and Steel Federation Chairman Tadashi Imai, also president of Nippon Steel (5401.T) , opens new tab, told reporters before that meeting that the organisation's main concern was that the global steel market may be depressed further if protectionism spreads. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/japanese-auto-industry-seeks-government-help-against-us-tariffs-2025-02-25/
2025-02-25 11:32
Bybit hack contributes to crypto market's negative sentiment U.S. tariffs and economic concerns impact investor confidence Bitcoin and ether fall more than 7% Altcoins such as dogecoin, solana, cardano see sharper declines LONDON, Feb 25 (Reuters) - Bitcoin dropped below $90,000 to its lowest since November 18 on Tuesday, as market nerves over U.S. tariffs reinforced the blow to crypto investor confidence from last week's $1.5 billion hack of ether from the Bybit exchange. Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency by market value, was last down 7.25% on the day at $87,169.76. Global investors have been jittery on signs the so-called exceptionalism of the U.S. economy might be fading, while President Donald Trump prepares to impose tariffs. Trump indicated on Monday he still plans to slap a 25% levy on imports from Canada and Mexico from early March and, in a sign of unease, safe-haven U.S. Treasury prices have rallied sharply, sending yields to two-month lows. "The macroeconomic situation has been the main reason for the price decline in the last few hours," said Marcel Heinrichsmeier, crypto assets analyst at DZ Bank. "The Bybit hack and the memecoin turmoil of the past few weeks have contributed to a generally worse mood in the crypto market than at the beginning of the year." While bitcoin has lost nearly 8% in the last week, smaller altcoins have been hit even harder. Memecoin dogecoin and the tokens for the solana and cardano networks have all dropped around 20%, according to CoinGecko. “The brutal sell-off happening in crypto is not unexpected considering we’ve just seen the biggest hack in our history," said Charles Wayn, co-founder of Galxe, a decentralized blockchain-based platform. "This has been compounded by further fears over global tariffs." DELAYED REACTION Dubai-headquartered Bybit, the world's second-largest exchange behind Binance, said last week hackers had stolen digital tokens worth around $1.5 billion. Blockchain research firm Elliptic said the hack was "almost certainly the single largest known theft of any kind in all time." Ether , the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, was down 8.46% at $2,414.29, around its lowest since October. Joseph Edwards, head of research at Enigma Securities, said Tuesday's selloff seemed to be "a bit of a delayed reaction from the Bybit hack." "Markets held up peculiarly well in response to what was expected to be a significant destabilising event ... but there tends to be a price to be paid further down the line... "We've seen the classic thing, where a slight contraction in risk has caused a small cascading selloff within crypto markets specifically." Part of the reason for the shift in sentiment is that policy changes in the U.S. have not lived up to expectations. A few months ago, optimism that the Trump administration would champion a strategic bitcoin fund and loosen regulation left investors primed for another jump in bitcoin, which topped $100,000 in December. But beyond a flurry of appointments of crypto-friendly officials when he took office, there has been little concrete news for investors. In addition, investors have been pulling money out of bitcoin-backed exchange-traded funds. LSEG data shows the largest ETFs are set for a net monthly outflow of around $644 million, the largest since their launch back in January 2024. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/bitcoin-falls-below-9000-first-time-month-ether-tumbles-2025-02-25/
