2025-02-20 02:48

MUMBAI, Feb 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is likely to open little changed on Thursday as traders assess fresh U.S. tariff threats and a cautious rate outlook from the Federal Reserve after its latest policy meeting minutes highlighted upside risks to inflation. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 86.94-86.95 to the U.S. dollar, little changed from its closing level on Tuesday. Indian FX and bond markets were shut on Wednesday for a local holiday. The dollar index was hovering at 107, supported by U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement on Tuesday that he intends to impose auto tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%", along with similar duties on semiconductor and pharmaceutical imports. Indian pharmaceutical stocks declined on Wednesday following Trump's tariff threat as the U.S. accounts for nearly 31% of total domestic pharma exports. The potential impact of the tariffs have stirred concerns about U.S. inflation, minutes of the Fed's January meeting released on Wednesday showed, reinforcing expectations that it will move cautiously on rate cuts. Lingering uncertainties on global trade have weighed on emerging market currencies alongside expectations of a cautious Fed. Meanwhile, headwinds for the rupee have been amplified by persistent portfolio outflows and expectations of more rate cuts by the domestic central bank. Foreign investors have net sold over $3 billion of local stocks in February, pushing the year-to-date outflows above $12 billion. The rupee has declined about 1.5% so far in 2025 and is among Asia's worst performing currencies. "I don't really see much room for the rupee to recover and it's likely to keep grinding lower steadily," Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, said. He expects the rupee to weaken to 88 by mid-year and 89 by the year-end. The rupee's 40-currency real effective exchange rate, a measure of its competitiveness, eased to 104.8 in January from 107.1 in the previous month, signalling easing in the currency's overvaluation. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 87.13; onshore one-month forward premium at 19 paisa ** Dollar index at 107.06 ** Brent crude futures down 0.3% at $75.8 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.52% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $244.6mln worth of Indian shares on February 17 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $93.8mln worth of Indian bonds on February 17 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-gauge-fresh-round-tariff-threats-cautious-fed-outlook-2025-02-20/

2025-02-20 00:48

Employment jumps 44,000, twice market forecasts Jobless rate rise to 4.1%, mostly a statistical quirk Labour market may be too 'tight' for RBA, though wages say otherwise SYDNEY, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Australia's unemployment rate ticked higher in January even though job creation handily outpaced forecasts, data showed on Thursday, a mixed outcome that does little to clarify the outlook for further cuts in interest rates. Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed net employment rose 44,300 in January from December, when it jumped 60,000. That was well above market forecasts for a 20,000 rise, and all of the gains came in full-time employment, which climbed by 54,100. Annual jobs growth accelerated further to a blistering 3.5%, more than twice the pace seen in the United States. The jobless rate still nudged up to 4.1%, from 4.0%, as the workforce expanded by even more than the increase in jobs. This was largely due to more women looking for work and finding jobs, which lifted the participation rate to a record high of 67.3%. The ABS noted a pattern had emerged since the pandemic where an unusually large number of people were not employed in January but expected to start a job in the near future. This phenomenon tended to see the unemployment rate rise in January, only to fall back in February. "The uptick in joblessness overstates the extent to which the job market loosened last month," said Abhijit Surya, a senior economist at Capital Economics. "The tight labour market reinforces our view that the RBA will deliver a shallow easing cycle." The Reserve Bank of Australia this week trimmed its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.10%, but cautioned further easing could not be guaranteed given upside risks to inflation. It noted the strength of employment was a hurdle to further cuts since it could stoke cost pressures and prevent core inflation from slowing to the middle of its 2-3% target band. Core inflation ran at 3.2% in the December quarter and is expected to slip under 3.0% this quarter. The RBA now expects it to bottom out at 2.7% and above its 2.5% target, in large part due to the "tight" labour market. However, the main inflationary effect of strong employment is typically through rising wages, and they are actually heading in the opposite direction. Figures released on Wednesday showed wages rose by a surprisingly subdued 0.7% in the December quarter, pulling annual growth down to 3.2% and a long way from its 2023 peak of 4.2%. "This will keep the RBA alive to the prospect the labour market may not be as inflationary as their forecasts imply as they weigh the case for further easing," said Taylor Nugent, a senior markets economist at NAB. "We assess the labour market is near balance and forecast the unemployment rate will rise only modestly." The moderation in wages is one reason markets are still pricing in a 75% chance the RBA will cut rates again in May, after skipping a move at its April meeting. The easing cycle is expected to be shallow, with rates finding a floor at 3.6% by year-end. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/australia-jan-employment-jumps-44000-jobless-edges-up-41-2025-02-20/

2025-02-20 00:42

JAKARTA, Feb 20 (Reuters) - Indonesia will import 100,000 metric tons of water buffalo meat from Pakistan, the National Food Agency chief was reported as saying by local media outlet Kontan on Thursday. The report said Arief Prasetyo Adi had said the decision to buy from Pakistan was due to lower prices compared to India. Indonesia imported water buffalo meat from India last year. Indonesia aimed to import 180,000 metric tons of beef and 100,000 metric tons of water buffalo meat in 2025, the report said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/indonesia-import-100000-metric-tons-water-buffalo-meat-pakistan-media-reports-2025-02-20/

2025-02-20 00:07

Crypto wallets linked to Libra withdrew from liquidity pool Argentina President Javier Milei promoted Libra token Friday Libra token rose to $4.50 before plummeting Feb 19 (Reuters) - Around $99 million worth of cryptocurrency was withdrawn from the marketplace of a coin at the centre of a scandal in Argentina by eight digital wallets linked to the crypto token's creator, blockchain researchers said. Argentinian President Javier Milei recommended the little-known crypto coin $LIBRA late on Friday in a post on X, but later deleted the post and denied having any link to the cryptocurrency. A federal judge is investigating the token's launch and Milei's involvement in it, after the coin, promoted by Milei on Friday, soon shot up above $4.50 apiece then plummeted just hours later. Milei has accused his rivals of trying to take advantage of the situation. According to blockchain researchers Chainalysis, eight crypto wallets withdrew roughly $99 million worth of tokens from the $LIBRA token's so-called liquidity pool - a kind of crypto marketplace where people can trade. Chainalysis could not confirm the identities of the owners of the wallets that withdrew the crypto, but said they were wallets that received tokens directly from the creator of $LIBRA. "The on-chain behavior suggests that these addresses are closely related to the Libra creator team based on the fact that those addresses were funded directly from the Libra token creator," Chainalysis told Reuters. Chainalysis did not comment on when exactly the funds were withdrawn. Meme coins are crypto tokens that feature branding or names referencing memes or internet trends or jokes. They often collapse after quickly soaring in value as earlier traders take profits. While the coins have long been a fixture in the crypto industry, it is rare for them to involve politicians. In a surprise move, U.S. President Donald Trump and his wife launched their own last month. The tokens withdrawn from Libra's liquidity pool were the stablecoin USDC and another cryptocurrency called SOL, or Solana, Chainalysis said, adding that the dollar value of these funds varies as token prices fluctuate. Another blockchain analytics firm, Nansen, told Reuters on Wednesday that wallets which removed tokens from Libra's marketplace "still hold a combined value of about $87 million". Nansen said "it is fair to say that there is still a lot of money in the hands of those related to the Libra launch." The value of holdings can change in dollar terms as the price of the cryptocurrencies they are stored in changes. The token was launched on a crypto exchange called Meteora. The exchange could not immediately be reached for comment. From Sunday to Tuesday, 70% of wallets trading $LIBRA lost money, Nansen said. PLAN GONE WRONG Hayden Davis, whose now-unavailable LinkedIn page said he is CEO of a crypto company called Kelsier Ventures, described himself in a statement on the company's X account on Sunday as a "launch advisor" for the token. Davis said in the statement that he had as much as $100 million of crypto from the Libra marketplace under his control, without describing how or why he acquired the funds. He said he intends to "reinvest" this money back into the token. "I was to make it unequivocally clear that I have not, nor will I, take any of these funds for my personal benefit," Davis said in the written statement on X. In an interview published on Monday with crypto YouTuber Stephen Findeisen, known as "Coffeezilla", Davis said the token was not a so-called rug-pull, a scam in which a coin's backers lure investors, sending its value soaring, then quickly withdraw their funds, leaving investors with worthless tokens. Davis said he had been trying to stop the token falling further. "It's not a rug. It’s a plan gone miserably wrong with $100 million sitting in an account that I'm the custodian of," he said. Reuters spoke to Findeisen to confirm the interview's authenticity. Reuters was unable to reach Davis for comment. A spokesperson for Davis did not respond to a request for comment. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/crypto-worth-99-million-withdrawn-milei-backed-libra-token-researchers-say-2025-02-20/

2025-02-20 00:01

LONDON, Feb 19 (Reuters) - The critical minerals war is escalating. China's response to U.S. President Donald Trump's 10% tariff hike on Chinese imports includes restricting exports of another five esoteric components of the periodic table. Exports of bismuth, indium, molybdenum, tellurium and tungsten will only be allowed subject to Ministry of Commerce approval they will not be used in military applications. That's a big problem for tungsten in particular. In a world where just about every metal is critical for someone, the word may be losing its meaning, as my colleague Clyde Russell has argued. But, for want of a better word, tungsten is a critical component of the 21st-century industrial supply chain, both civilian and military. So critical indeed that users are starting to embrace new pricing mechanisms to guarantee non-Chinese supply. GREEN AMMO Tungsten has the highest melting point of any element, is extremely hard and has good electrical and thermal conductivity. The metal lit up the last century in the form of the incandescent light bulb and is now used in an extraordinarily wide range of applications. Tungsten carbide is the hardest material after diamond and its use in drills spans every other metallic supply chain from mine to machining. Tungsten crucibles make it possible to melt just about any other element. The metal has seeped stealthily into telecoms, electronics, semiconductor and power sectors. Tungsten is a small market with global output of just over 100,000 metric tons and an estimated value of around $5 billion in 2023. But the industries that depend on it are exponentially bigger, which is why it is on everyone's critical mineral list. It is also the material of choice for what the military calls penetrators - high-density, armour-piercing projectiles. The only other material that can match its kinetic performance is depleted uranium, which makes tungsten the environmentally friendly battlefield option. And one that is in high demand in Ukraine. DECOUPLING China dominates the tungsten market, accounting for 83% of last year's global mine production of 81,000 tons, according to the U.S. Geological Survey. Tungsten has not been mined commercially in the United States since 2015 and the country relies heavily on imports, 37% of which came from China last year. The Joe Biden administration kick-started the process of weaning U.S. companies off their dependence on Chinese tungsten with a 25% duty , opens new tab on imports from China imposed in December last year. The U.S. military faces a 2027 deadline , opens new tab for halting any purchases of tungsten manufactured or mined in China or Russia, which is the world's third largest producer. The Defense Logistics Agency holds stocks of tungsten concentrate and is in the market , opens new tab for up to 2,040 tons more in the current fiscal year to September 2025. The Department of Defense has awarded $15.8m , opens new tab to Canada's Fireweed Metals Corp (FWZ.V) , opens new tab to accelerate the development of the Mactung tungsten mine in Yukon. The money will fund test work and a feasibility study, which suggests it will be a while before a final go-ahead decision, let alone production. NO DOWNSIDE Until the DoD's money can deliver results in Yukon, the West's tungsten fortunes hang largely on the restart of the Sangdong mine in South Korea. Sangdong was once the jewel in the country's mining crown but closed due to low prices in the 1990s. It is being reactivated by Almonty Industries (AII.TO) , opens new tab with commissioning of the first 2,300-ton per year phase already in progress. A second phase of similar size could follow 12 months down the line. All of the first-phase production has been committed to Global Tungsten & Powders, the U.S. arm of Austria's Plansee Group , opens new tab. The contract comes with a minimum floor price of $235 per metric ton unit (mtu) basis the price of ammonium paratungstate and no upside cap. The current price is $342.50 per mtu. Floor prices are by no means uncommon in the mining industry but normally they come in the form of fancy financial hedging programmes paid for by the producer. But there is no futures market in tungsten, which makes this particular contract unique - or almost unique: Almonty has pulled off the same trick , opens new tab with its Sangdong Molybdenum project, locking in a hard floor price of $19 per lb with SeAH M&S, Korea's largest processor. The idea is to insulate the projects from the sort of destructive Chinese supply surge that is playing out in battery metals such as lithium, cobalt and nickel. Lacking any floor price protection, battery-metal start-ups have been crushed by low prices. AT ANY COST? Almonty may not have to worry too much about floor prices if China starts choking off the supply of tungsten products to the West. Although there is no outright ban yet, it is worth noting that germanium, gallium and antimony all got the special licensing treatment before Beijing put a total ban on exports of all three to the United States. As buyers scramble for non-Chinese material at any price, antimony has rocketed to $47,250 from $11,000 per kilogram at the start of 2024. Plansee Group's granting of what is in effect a free put option on Amonty's tungsten output bears testimony to how critical it thinks Sangdong's output will be to the non-Chinese tungsten market. The lesson for other critical mineral users is that relying on market prices alone to ensure supply will not guarantee you get the stuff you really need. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. 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2025-02-19 23:58

Nikola falls after filing for bankruptcy protection Analog Devices gains after Q1 results beat estimates January housing starts plunge Fed minutes reveal concern over tariff effects Indexes up: Dow 0.16%, S&P 500 0.24%, Nasdaq 0.07% NEW YORK, Feb 19 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended modestly higher on Wednesday and the S&P 500 notched its second straight all-time closing high as investors scrutinized the minutes from the Federal Reserve's January policy meeting and digested U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans. All three major U.S. equity indexes made gains on the day. At the Fed's January policy meeting, the U.S. central bank left its key interest rate unchanged. The minutes show policymakers expressed concern about stubborn inflation and the potential effect of Trump's policy proposals, particularly tariffs, on their efforts to bring price growth down to their target. "There was some discussion (in the minutes) that there may be some economic slowing ahead," said Paul Nolte, senior wealth adviser and market strategist at Murphy & Sylvest in Elmhurst, Illinois. "Maybe that's giving investors some thought that the Fed could cut rates. It's still on the table." "That said, (the Fed's) not willing to do anything until they get a little bit more clarity as to what the tariffs look like," Nolte added. "So from that perspective (it's) a wait and see." Trump announced on Tuesday he would impose tariffs "in the neighborhood of 25%" on autos, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, the latest in a series of measures that have raised concerns over the consequences of a global trade war. "I think people are starting to see it as a bargaining chip or bluster, more bark than bite," Nolte said. The Commerce Department said housing starts tumbled by 9.8% in January, a plunge attributed to soft demand, elevated mortgage rates and a spate of unusually frigid weather. Housing stocks (.HGX) , opens new tab were underperformers, dropping 1.5%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 71.25 points, or 0.16%, to 44,627.59. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 14.57 points, or 0.24%, at 6,144.15 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab edged up 14.99 points, or 0.07%, to 20,056.25. Among the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500, healthcare (.SPXHC) , opens new tab enjoyed the largest percentage gain, while materials (.SPLRCM) , opens new tab and financials (.SPSY) , opens new tab were the laggards. Fourth-quarter earnings season is approaching the finish line, and 74% of the S&P 500 constituents have posted better-than-expected results, according to LSEG. Analysts now see fourth-quarter S&P 500 earnings growth of 15.3% year-on-year, a significant improvement over the 9.6% estimate at the beginning of the year, according to LSEG. Electric truck maker Nikola (NKLA.O) , opens new tab plunged 39.1% in the wake of its filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Specialty chemicals company Celanese (CE.N) , opens new tab tumbled 21.5% after reporting a quarterly loss. Shares of Shift4 (FOUR.N) , opens new tab slid 17.5% following its fourth-quarter results and on news that the payments processor has agreed to buy Global Blue (GB.N) , opens new tab in a deal valued at $2.5 billion. Shares of Global Blue jumped 17.5%. Analog Devices (ADI.O) , opens new tab gained 9.7% after beating quarterly profit and revenue estimates. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 254 new highs and 101 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 1,962 stocks rose and 2,389 fell as declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.22-to-1 ratio. The S&P 500 posted 28 new 52-week highs and seven new lows while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 96 new highs and 119 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 16.36 billion shares, compared with the 15.57 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-tread-water-markets-weigh-trumps-auto-tariffs-threat-fed-minutes-tap-2025-02-19/