2025-02-17 23:55

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Monday raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890, citing sustained central bank demand. The bank estimates that "structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end, which combined with a gradual boost to ETF holdings as the funds rate declines." This should outweigh the drag from normalizing investor positioning, assuming uncertainty diminishes, Goldman Sachs added. However, if policy uncertainty, including tariff concerns, remains high, Goldman sees the potential for gold to surge to $3,300 per ounce by year-end due to prolonged speculative positioning. The bank has also revised its central bank demand assumption upward to 50 tonnes per month from the previous estimate of 41 tonnes. If purchases average 70 tonnes per month, gold prices could climb to $3,200 per ounce by the end of 2025, assuming positioning normalizes, Goldman said. Conversely, if the Federal Reserve keeps interest rates steady, the bank expects gold to reach $3,060 per ounce in the same period, the bank added. Reiterating its "Go for Gold" trading recommendation, Goldman Sachs said that while declining uncertainty could lead to a tactical pullback in prices, long gold positions remain a strong hedge. This is particularly relevant in the face of potential trade tensions, Federal Reserve subordination risks, and financial or recessionary threats, which could push prices toward the upper end of Goldman's high-uncertainty range, the bank said. Additionally, if concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability escalate, Goldman Sachs sees gold rising an extra 5% to $3,250 per ounce by December 2025. Growing fears of inflation and fiscal risks could drive speculative positioning and ETF flows higher, while worries about U.S. debt sustainability may encourage central banks, especially those with large U.S. Treasury reserves, to increase their gold purchases, the investment bank added. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/goldman-sachs-raises-year-end-gold-price-forecast-3100-2025-02-17/

2025-02-17 23:50

TOKYO, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Japan's government approved on Tuesday new targets to cut the country's greenhouse gas emissions through 2040, alongside a revised energy plan and an updated industrial policy for the same period. The measures, which seek to bolster long-term policy stability for businesses, focus on promoting decarbonisation, ensuring a stable energy supply and strengthening industrial capacity to drive economic growth. Under the new climate policy, Japan aims to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 60% from 2013 levels by 2035 and by 73% by 2040, extending its 2030 goal of a 46% cut. The emissions-cutting target sparked calls for deeper reductions from experts and ruling coalition members when it was first proposed, as the world's fifth-biggest carbon emitter struggles to reduce its dependence on fossil fuels. Despite more than 80% of 3,000 public comments supporting a more ambitious target, the environment and industry ministries finalised the goal without changes, citing prior deliberations by climate experts. As part of global efforts to combat climate change, Japan plans to submit its new target, known as a Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement, to the United Nations this month. The revised energy policy aims for renewables to account for up to 50% of Japan's electricity mix by fiscal year 2040, with nuclear power contributing another 20% as the country pushes for clean energy while meeting rising power demand. Japanese utilities have struggled to restart nuclear reactors since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, limiting nuclear power to just 8.5% of Japan's electricity supply in 2023. The new energy plan removes the previous goal of minimizing reliance on nuclear and calls for building next-generation reactors. A new national strategy integrating decarbonisation and industrial policy through 2040, aligned with the emission target and energy plan, was also approved by the cabinet. It aims to develop industrial clusters in areas rich in renewable energy, nuclear power, and other low-carbon power sources. However, uncertainties are emerging around Japan's policies, as the domestic offshore wind market, a key driver of renewable energy growth, faces headwinds from inflation and high costs, recently prompting Mitsubishi Corp (8058.T) , opens new tab to review three domestic projects. Additionally, the decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw the U.S. from the Paris Agreement and its negative stance on renewable energy have further clouded global expansion efforts. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/japan/japan-approves-new-climate-energy-industry-policies-through-2040-2025-02-17/

2025-02-17 23:50

First-half profit down 23%, slightly ahead of consensus Iron ore earnings down 26% on lower prices Interim dividend of 50 cents, lowest in 8 years Central bank rate cuts could help revive demand MELBOURNE, Feb 18 (Reuters) - BHP (BHP.AX) , opens new tab sees signs of economic recovery in China and central bank rate cuts reviving demand for steel and copper but flagged risks to global growth from potential trade tensions, as it logged its lowest first-half profit in six years. After scrapping a $49 billion bid to acquire Anglo American (AAL.L) , opens new tab, which last year rebuffed its bigger rival's effort to snare control of prized copper assets in Latin America, BHP CEO Mike Henry said the company was not looking at acquisitions now. "Our current focus is 100% on organic growth options," Henry told reporters. The world's largest listed miner on Tuesday reported an underlying attributable profit of $5.08 billion for the six months ending December 2024, down 23% from a year earlier , opens new tab but slightly ahead of the Visible Alpha consensus estimate of $5.01 billion. Its shares eased 0.3 % in line with other major miners. It declared an interim dividend of 50 cents per share, its lowest since 2017, down from 72 cents per share a year earlier but in line with consensus at the bottom end of the miner's payout policy. "The in-line results and dividend exceeded our expectations," said Macquarie analyst Rob Stein in a note. For the first-half, underlying operating earnings from iron ore, its biggest profit-generating commodity, declined 26% to $7.2 billion as the average realised price fell to $81.11 per wet metric ton from $103.7 a year ago. Following a string of cyclones that have hit Australia's west coast and snarled iron ore shipments, BHP warned its full-year iron ore output from Western Australia would no longer be in the upper half of the expected range of between 282 million and 294 million metric tons. However, the miner pointed to global monetary easing potentially reviving demand prospects for its two main products, steel ingredient iron ore, and copper, which has grown to account for nearly half of its profits. "Central banks' ongoing rate cuts are expected to translate into a recovery for steel and copper demand across the OECD (Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development) in the near term," it said. "However, potential trade tensions present a risk to the recovery in developed economies and across the globe." Henry said BHP's exposure to U.S. tariffs was muted given the market accounts for only 3% of its revenue. "To the extent there is a constraint on Canadian potash into the U.S. ... then we would expect to see the global market reorder," he said on an earnings call. BHP expects to start shipping the fertiliser at the end of next year. Demand for BHP's products remained strong despite global economic and trade uncertainties, with early signs of recovery in China, resilient economic performance in the U.S. and strong growth in India, Henry said. BHP's copper operations earned $5 billion over the first half, growing by 44% as tight fundamentals, Chinese stimulus plans and interest rate cuts in the United States kept copper prices elevated. It expects to spend $4.7 billion in fiscal 2025 on expanding its copper operations, which by June will have grown by 24% or some 300,000 tonnes over the past three years. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/bhp-first-half-underlying-profit-falls-23-lower-iron-ore-prices-2025-02-17/

2025-02-17 23:09

Woodside close to selecting partners for Louisiana LNG project Potential partners include JERA, Tokyo Gas, and MidOcean Energy Woodside seeks higher-than-market liquefaction fee LONDON/SINGAPORE/HOUSTON/NEW YORK, Feb 18 (Reuters) - Woodside Energy (WDS.AX) , opens new tab has held talks with several potential buyers of stakes in its Louisiana liquefied natural gas plant, including Tokyo Gas (9531.T) , opens new tab, Japan's JERA and Saudi Aramco-backed MidOcean Energy, multiple sources told Reuters. The timing of the stake sale is a test case for buoyant market expectations around LNG with the return of Donald Trump to the U.S. presidency. Trump has said trade partners should buy more U.S. energy and issued several executive orders in his first weeks in office aimed at boosting domestic oil and gas output. Louisiana LNG is an opportunity for global buyers to diversify their supply base and potentially fend off U.S. tariffs under the Trump administration, by increasing U.S. energy imports and narrowing the trade deficits that irk the U.S. president. Reuters spoke to seven people familiar with the matter. All seven sources said Tokyo Gas (9531.T) , opens new tab had discussions with Woodside, five of those sources said Jera held talks and four of the sources said MidOcean also had discussions. Reuters previously reported that Tokyo Gas was in talks for a stake. Talks with the other possible buyers have not previously been reported. U.S. pipeline operator Williams Companies (WMB.N) , opens new tab also had discussions with Woodside about buying an equity stake, one of the sources added. JERA, MidOcean Energy, Saudi Aramco and Tokyo Gas declined to comment. Williams Companies did not respond to a request for comment. Woodside is expected to make a decision soon and has signalled it may accept several bids as it seeks to sell 50% of the first phase of the LNG export project, expected to cost roughly $16 billion to build. The project is to be built in four phases with the first phase expected to produce 11 million metric tonnes per annum (MTPA) of the superchilled gas. When completed Louisiana LNG is expected to produce 27.6 MTPA, Woodside said. Woodside declined to discuss the bidding, but directed Reuters to its previous comments that the project was moving as expected and had attracted strong interest from high-quality potential partners. The LNG developer is also seeking higher prices for gas contracts, three sources said. Woodside has told buyers the premiums are higher to cover rising costs to build plants and because of the relatively low risk around future development. Woodside already has all permits secured to build the plant. Woodside is seeking liquefaction fees of $2.70-2.90 per million British thermal unit (mmBtu) on 10-20 year deals, one source said. That is about 20 cents above current market rates. Shorter agreements would be at the higher end of the range, two sources said. LNG plants chill natural gas until it is in liquid form, so that it can be transported on special ships. Trump has pulled back regulation on building new plants, although his tariffs on steel and other products have raised some concerns about the future costs of building the massive plants. Woodside previously had said a decision on selling stakes in the project was expected soon. CEO Meg O'Neill in September said the company wants clarity on the partnering approach before taking a final investment decision, and expected to bring several partners into Louisiana LNG by March 2025. It is not clear when the decision will be made, but two sources said that the bidding window had closed and another said that Woodside in early February closed its project data room, an online repository of information for investors, in a sign the process was drawing to a close. The Australian oil and gas producer last year acquired the Louisiana LNG project in its $1.2 billion purchase of developer Tellurian Inc. Woodside changed the project name, which previously was Driftwood LNG. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-woodside-talks-with-least-three-partners-louisiana-lng-sources-say-2025-02-17/

2025-02-17 22:42

Feb 17 (Reuters) - Lionel Messi's Inter Miami Champions Cup match against Sporting Kansas City has been postponed due to adverse weather conditions, including heavy snowfall, the North American soccer body CONCACAF said on Monday. The match, originally scheduled for Tuesday, would have been Javier Mascherano's team debut in the continental competition, but will now be played on Wednesday. The United States National Weather Service has issued a winter storm warning for the region, which includes parts of east-central and northeastern Kansas and central and west-central Missouri. "The decision to postpone the match at Children's Mercy Park was made with the safety of the players and fans as a priority and in consultation with the two clubs involved and local authorities," CONCACAF said in a statement. The sports governing body added that the postponement was also prompted by the possibility of snow accumulating on the pitch. The return leg is scheduled for February 25 at Miami's Chase Stadium, with the winners advancing to face Jamaica's Cavalier in the round of 16. The Champions Cup, formerly known as the Champions League, is an annual international club competition organised by CONCACAF as its premier continental tournament for clubs from North America, Central America and the Caribbean. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/snowstorm-delays-messis-inter-miami-champions-cup-debut-2025-02-17/

2025-02-17 22:15

SAO PAULO, Feb 17 (Reuters) - Bazil's central bank will offer up to $3 billion in a dollar auction with a repurchase agreement on Tuesday morning to roll over debt due on March 6, it said on Monday. The auction will take place from 10:30am to 10:35am local time, the central bank added, noting the repurchase is set for October 2. The deal will be the third auction with a repurchase agreement held by the central bank this year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/brazils-cenbank-announces-3-billion-dollar-auction-with-repurchase-deal-tuesday-2025-02-17/