2025-11-13 14:53
Daly says balanced risks mean Fed needs more data before decision Fed's direction for policy rate remains downward, open minded on December: Daly Notes recent services inflation acceleration, says recent rate cuts support labor market DUBLIN, Ireland, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Risks to the Federal Reserve's two goals of price stability and full employment are balanced now that the Fed has cut interest rates twice so far this year, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said on Thursday, leaving her open minded about the upcoming December rate-setting decision. "To my mind, it's premature to say definitely no cut, or definitely a cut" for the U.S. central bank's December 9-10 meeting, Daly said at an event hosted by the Institute of International and European Affairs in Dublin, Ireland. "I have an open mind, but I haven't made a final decision on what I think." Sign up here. With just under four weeks before she flies to Washington to join her 18 fellow U.S. central bankers at the Fed's policy-setting table, Daly said she feels it's still clear that the general direction for the policy rate is downward. But the timing, she suggested, will depend on what the data says. The risks to missing the Fed's 2% inflation goal or of falling short of its maximum-employment mandate "are in balance at this point and maybe even still slightly higher on employment because the evidence has come in over the course of this year that says inflation's increased less than we had projected and employment has deteriorated more than we projected," she said. Still, she said, there's been some recent acceleration in services inflation, and the Fed's half-percentage-point of rate cuts this year has delivered some support to the labor market, where a drop in demand has kept wage growth muted, "I would be fine with 'balanced' at this point," Daly said. "We need to collect more information before we make a decision about December, in my judgment, you know, because we have two goals and both of them have risks attached to them." Daly does not vote on rates until 2027, but takes part in the policy debate that informs the decision by her 12 voting colleagues. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/feds-daly-open-minded-december-rate-cut-amid-balanced-risks-2025-11-13/
2025-11-13 14:04
BENGALURU, Nov 13 (Reuters) - U.S. 10-year Treasury yields, assuming no upside inflation surprises, are likely to rise modestly in coming months, according to a Reuters poll of market experts, while short-dated yields are forecast to decline on rate cut bets. The survey results suggest inertia in the world's largest debt market despite a long list of potential risks, not least of which is a mountain of upcoming supply. Sign up here. U.S. President Donald Trump’s recently passed budget will require an estimated $3 trillion of additional borrowing over the coming decade but that flood of expected issuance has yet to make any significant impact on current pricing. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, currently 4.09%, was forecast to trade at 4.10% in the coming three and six months, before rising to 4.21% in a year, according to median forecasts from over 50 bond strategists surveyed from November 6 to 13. Medians were broadly unchanged from last month's survey. Other market pricing, including multiple breakeven rates embedded in inflation-protected Treasury securities, points to lower market-based inflation expectations compared with earlier in the year. That has coincided with the absence of official government data during the longest shutdown in history that just ended on Wednesday and still no serious official inflation evidence from U.S. tariffs on imported goods put in place this year. Jean Boivin, head of the BlackRock Investment Institute, said this reflects a familiar pattern: bond markets are often excessively responsive to near-term developments. "The implication is it's very likely the market is over-indexing on the recent track of inflation. And I don't think you make a good return by positioning in the near-term for what the market will only eventually price in properly. But I do think eventually the market will start to reflect more inflation expectations." Indeed, the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge is running at nearly 3% and has been above the 2% target for over four years. U.S. consumer inflation expectations have also remained elevated through most of the year. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said on Wednesday persistent inflation warrants greater caution about the path of future easing, particularly for the upcoming December 17-18 Fed meeting. According to the poll, the rate-sensitive two-year Treasury yield, currently 3.58%, was forecast to fall to 3.50% in three months and 3.40% in six months. Interest rate futures remain priced for three-to-four rate reductions by end-2026 despite stark divisions on the Federal Open Market Committee on how soon rates need to fall again. Over three-quarters of respondents to an additional question, 26 of 34, said the yield curve would modestly steepen by end-January. That included Michael Chang, head of rates derivatives strategy at Citi, who said the market was still bracing for higher "term premium" - compensation demanded for holding debt over time - as Treasury issuance continues to rise. "We're expecting most of the coupon issuance increase to be announced in next year's November refunding meeting...And regardless of where the increase happens on the curve, that's going to translate to repricing for a higher term premium overall." "That means the curve is probably going to be steeper, with the long end underperforming the front and the belly of the curve," Chang added. https://www.reuters.com/business/us-10-year-treasury-yields-priced-no-inflation-surprises-set-rise-modestly-2025-11-13/
2025-11-13 12:52
NEW DELHI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - India's ReNew Energy Global Plc (RNW.O) , opens new tab said on Thursday it will invest about 820 billion rupees ($9.33 billion) in the southern state of Andhra Pradesh to expand its clean energy portfolio. The company is signing agreements with the state government for projects spanning solar manufacturing, pumped hydro, battery storage and green ammonia. Sign up here. ReNew will set up a 6 gigawatt (GW) photovoltaic ingot-wafer plant, a 2 GW pumped hydro project, a 300,000 tonnes-per-annum green ammonia facility and 5 GW of hybrid renewable projects in the state, including wind-solar and solar-plus-storage. The investment comes as India pushes to double its non-fossil fuel power generation capacity to 500 GW. The latest investment commitment includes 600 billion rupees in new investments and adds to the 220 billion rupees pledged in May for a hybrid renewable energy project, ReNew said in a statement. ReNew did not say how it will fund these projects. The company, which already operates 717 megawatts of wind and 60 MW of solar capacity in Andhra Pradesh, said the expansion would create more than 10,000 jobs. Andhra Pradesh aims to develop 78.5 GW of solar, 35 GW of wind and 25 gigawatt-hours of battery storage capacity in the state. ReNew has a clean energy portfolio of about 18.5 GW and is among India's largest independent power producers. ($1 = 87.8950 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/indias-renew-invest-933-billion-green-energy-projects-southern-state-2025-11-13/
2025-11-13 12:51
Six-month revenue S$9.68 billion Declares interim dividend of 5 SG cents/share Announces three-year annual special dividend plan Nov 13 (Reuters) - Singapore Airlines (SIAL.SI) , opens new tab on Thursday reported a sharp fall in first-half profit, hit by losses at its Indian associate Air India, higher costs and intensifying competition. The airline's profit slid steeply in the second quarter to S$52 million ($40.18 million) from S$186 million in the first quarter, highlighting Air India's drag on performance. Sign up here. Singapore Airlines began accounting for Air India’s earnings in December 2024 after the integration of joint venture Vistara into Air India. The Singapore airline has a 25.1% stake in the Indian carrier. Passenger demand remained strong and fuel costs fell, even as competition in key markets squeezed yields. Singapore's flag carrier sought to keep investors onside with a capital return plan and a confident outlook for travel demand heading into the year-end rush. It unveiled a three-year special dividend plan totalling about S$900 million, paying 10 Singapore cents per share annually. It also announced an interim dividend of 5 Singapore cents a share. Half-year net profit fell to S$239 million, down from S$742 million last year and missing the S$341.9 million consensus estimate from Visible Alpha. The share of results from associated companies plunged S$417 million, largely because of Air India’s losses. Rising non-fuel expenses from inflation and network growth erased much of the benefit from cheaper jet fuel, keeping overall costs on an upward path. The drop is not far off of our forecast decline of 74% for fiscal 2026, said Lorraine Tan, director at Morningstar. "Much of the decline is due to a normalisation of passenger yields post COVID." Revenues rose by 1.9% to a first-half record of S$9.68 billion. In the first quarter, the company had flagged unpredictable demand for its cargo business due to tariffs. The cargo business remains uncertain, with yields under pressure as airlines shift capacity away from the United States to other routes despite rising volumes, the airline said. ($1 = 1.2942 Singapore dollars) https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/singapore-airlines-half-year-profit-falls-68-2025-11-13/
2025-11-13 12:49
NEW DELHI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - India's Tata Steel (TISC.NS) , opens new tab hopes the government will extend import tariffs on some steel products to guard against the threat of imports, particularly from China, chief executive T.V. Narendran told Reuters on Thursday. "Import volumes are limited in India but even small volumes disturb the market," said Narendran in an interview. Sign up here. "China is exporting a lot of steel," globally Narendran said, adding that Indian steel producers did not have an option to export because most markets were "flooded" by Chinese competitors. India, the world's second-biggest crude steel producer, had in April imposed temporary import tariffs on some steel products to curb imports from China. Those tariffs expired last week. Meanwhile, Narendran said that Tata Steel was impacted by U.S. tariffs on the company's Europe and UK operations, which had been exporting a combined 800,000 metric tons to the U.S. Some of the impact was passed on to customers, he said. The steel producer is looking at alternative markets such as Latin America, parts of Europe, Africa and the Middle East to deal with the impact of U.S. tariffs, Narendran said. Tata Steel is also urging the UK government to impose import curbs to stem cheap shipments into the country, Koushik Chatterjee, chief financial officer at Tata Steel said. "UK has become literally a dumping ground for imports," Chatterjee said. As for costs related to its European operations, the steel producer is in the process of finalising the total sum of expenditure required to decarbonise its plant in the Netherlands. Job cuts the company announced in April in the Netherlands have also yet to take effect, Chatterjee said. "That is something which is taking time because we are in negotiation with the union," Chatterjee said. INDIA OUTLOOK Tata Steel expects steel prices in Q3 will be 1,500 rupees lower per ton than Q2 in India. Demand in India is "quite strong", particularly from automotives, oil and gas, railways and the construction sector, Narendran said. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/tata-steel-calls-extension-import-tariffs-some-steel-products-india-2025-11-13/
2025-11-13 12:46
Bank creates testing portfolio outside of reserves No plan to add bitcoin to reserves in near future Aim is to gain experience in digital markets Will assess experiment in two to three years Open question on whether bitcoin could be added to reserves PRAGUE, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The Czech central bank said on Thursday it had bought $1 million of bitcoins and other blockchain-based digital assets to gain experience with digital markets, and will evaluate the project in two to three years. The portfolio is mostly made up of bitcoins, but also includes U.S. dollar-based stablecoins and a tokenised deposit, all bought through a regulated exchange it said, without giving specifics on the market used or exact assets. Sign up here. "The purpose of the portfolio is to gain practical experience with holding digital assets and to implement and test the necessary related processes," the bank said. It will be held separately from the bank's international reserves, and will not be actively increased. "In the test portfolio, the central bank will test the whole chain of processes associated with the purchase, holding and management of digital assets – from technical administration of keys and multi-level approval processes, through crisis scenarios and security mechanisms, to verifying anti-money-laundering compliance," the bank said. Governor Ales Michl, who originally floated the idea of looking at bitcoin in January, said new ways of making payments and investments were emerging, and the bank wanted to be ready. "It is realistic to expect that, in the future, it will be easy to use the crown to buy tokenised Czech bonds and more besides – with one tap an espresso; with another an investment such as a bond or another asset that used to be the preserve of larger investors," Michl said in the statement. "As a central bank, we want to test this path." The bank will be doing transactions with the portfolio for purposes of the experiment. The portfolio's value may change over time due to price fluctuations and composition may change by the bank testing purchases of other digital assets. LEGAL, OTHER BARRIERS TO INCLUSION IN RESERVES The bank said it would assess the project, leaving open the question of whether digital assets could become part of reserves in the future, and in what form. The CNB's first idea of looking at bitcoins for reserves received a cold reception from the European Central Bank, whose President Christine Lagarde said she believed bitcoins would not become reserve assets of EU members. Although the Czech Republic does not use the euro, it is part of the European Union and its system of central banks. Buying the digital assets outside reserves, however, was compliant with Czech and European legislation, the CNB said. The ECB declined to comment. The Czech bank said on Thursday it could already invest in bitcoin in line with legal requirements through an exchange-traded fund, but this was not now on the agenda due to bitcoin's short track record and other characteristics making it, for now, an immature asset. https://www.reuters.com/business/czech-central-bank-buys-1-mln-bitcoin-other-crypto-assets-testing-2025-11-13/
