2025-02-10 20:43

NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Coffee futures in New York rose more than 6% on Monday in the ICE exchange to a fresh all-time high above $4.30 per pound, with some market participants citing panic in the market amid limited coffee availability. Arabica coffee futures hit a record for the 13th straight trading session. Reports of a dry, hot weather system forming over Brazil's coffee areas helped to drive the new price peaks, as farmers in the world's top grower are reluctant to sell. "Panic has finally shown up, prices will continue to rise," said Bob Fish, co-founder of coffee franchise Biggby Coffee, who has 350 stores in several U.S. states. "There are only two things that can stop this: one, Brazil and Vietnam have a good yield year (that is not expected until August 2026). Two, there is enough demand destruction in consuming countries because of the price increases," he said in a note about the rally. Fish suggested that coffee shops in the U.S. raise their prices, or risk seeing their profit margins "evaporate". Coffee futures in New York , seen as a global price benchmark, hit a record of $4.2410 per lb earlier, closing up 6.2% at $4.211 per lb. The spot contract , which expires in March, hit a peak at $4.3195/lb. Prices are up around 35% so far this year after soaring 70% last year. There is concern in the market about low stocks in Brazil, which produces nearly half the world's arabica. Farmers there have sold some 85% of the current crop and are in no rush to sell more. "The coffee left in the balance sheet might be in the 'wrong' side of the world, lying at the hands of strong Brazilian producers," said a coffee broker, suggesting that farmers in the country are well financed. Dealers say, however, the rally in arabica has to some extent become self-perpetuating and out of sync with fundamentals. "There are those who believe the next Brazilian harvest could be better than expected, not so much as to exceed last year's, but enough to make the outlook a little brighter," said trader Icona Cafe. Broker Hedgepoint even expects Brazil to produce more coffee this year than last, noted Icona, with 64.1 million bags pencilled in for 2025/26 versus an estimated 63.4 million for the prior season. Meanwhile ICE arabica speculators - key in driving the current price surge - cut their net long position, or bets on further price gains, by 3,130 contracts to 50,333 contracts in the week to February 4, industry data showed. Robusta coffee , a cheaper alternative to arabica used mostly to make instant coffee, rose 2.4% at $5,697 a ton, having hit its highest on record on January 31 at $5,840. In other soft commodities traded, New York cocoa fell 2.3% to $9,878 a ton, having posted a loss of 7% last week, while London cocoa fell 1.7% to 7,919 pounds per ton. Raw sugar futures rose 0.7% at 19.50 cents per lb, while white sugar rose 0.3% at $519.40 a ton. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coffee-new-york-jumps-6-new-record-amid-panic-buying-2025-02-10/

2025-02-10 20:36

Bond traders left speculating after Trump's debt comments Debt payment disruptions would roil markets Some read remarks as hinting at savings from Musk's DOGE Lower Treasury auctions would be concrete evidence NEW YORK, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Bond investors were thrown off balance on Monday by U.S. President Donald Trump's weekend remarks on investigating Treasury debt payments for fraud, with some hoping they signaled a future pullback in debt issuance. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One, Trump said officials reviewing wasteful spending had shifted their focus to the U.S. debt payments and suggested that the country's $36 trillion debt load might not be that high. Market participants on Monday were left speculating if the remarks indicated a possible reduction of the country's overall debt burden going forward, resulting from an overhaul of the federal government through the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) led by billionaire Elon Musk, but said it was unlikely to mean disruptions to upcoming debt payments. "It could be Treasury payments ... which is not directly linked to Treasury bonds," said Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer for Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. "I would be very surprised if they ever stopped a payment of Treasury bonds to a holder, it would be like shooting yourself in the foot," he said. DOGE has disrupted operations at several federal agencies and has raised privacy and security concerns as it has gained access to sensitive payroll and spending records. A federal judge on Saturday temporarily barred Musk's team from accessing government payment systems, citing risks of data leaks. Trump's debt remarks follow comments by Treasury Secretary Scotty Bessent who said in a Bloomberg interview last week that the U.S. government borrowing trajectory is dropping. This, in turn, came after guidance , opens new tab from the Treasury Department last week that assuaged market concerns about imminent increases in long-term government debt issuance. "If you put those comments together with Trump's comments ... I think this is going to be a very positive development for the Treasury market," said Tony Farren, managing director at Mischler Financial Group. He added, however, that any evidence of lower borrowing requirements would have to translate into lower sizes of Treasury debt auctions for the market to take into full account the agency's progress. "They're going to have to come out and tell us concrete things that they found," he said. The Treasury Department, the White House, and three major credit ratings agencies did not immediately respond to requests for comment. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were slightly higher on Monday ahead of some $125 billion in U.S. three-year, 10-year and 30-year Treasury auctions this week that will test demand for government debt. Spreads on U.S. sovereign credit default swaps (CDS) - market-based gauges of the risk of a default - were unchanged. "We view (Trump's) comments as referencing specific payments ... rather than outstanding U.S. Treasury securities," U.S. brokerage firm BTIG said in a note. "We firmly believe that the White House is cognizant of the turmoil that would come from calling into question the validity of any U.S. Treasury securities, which bolsters our belief that the president was discussing specific budget items," it said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bond-traders-waver-trump-questions-us-government-debt-figures-2025-02-10/

2025-02-10 20:16

CHICAGO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Nevada has confirmed its first human case of bird flu in a farm worker who was exposed to infected dairy cattle, the Central Nevada Health District said on Monday, after authorities last week reported a second strain of the virus in cows in the state. The case broadens the U.S. outbreak of the virus that has infected nearly 70 people, mostly farm workers, since April. The H5N1 virus has reduced milk output in cattle and pushed up egg prices by wiping out millions of laying hens. The Nevada worker is recovering after suffering from conjunctivitis, or pink eye, the Central Nevada Health District said in a statement. It added that there is no evidence the virus is spreading from person to person and said the CDC considers bird flu to be a low risk to the public. The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported for the first time last week that a second strain of bird flu was found in dairy cattle in Nevada, a discovery that ramped up concerns about the U.S. outbreak. The second strain, known as D1.1, was the predominant genotype among wild birds this past fall and winter and has also been found in poultry, the agency said. One person in Louisiana died who had been hospitalized with the D1.1 genotype. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/nevada-confirms-states-first-human-case-bird-flu-dairy-worker-2025-02-10/

2025-02-10 20:13

More Trump tariff announcements expected in coming days Fed Chair Powell to speak Tuesday Gold eyes $3,000 an ounce Oil bounces; BYD roils EV sector SINGAPORE, Feb 11 (Reuters) - Gold shot to a record high, the dollar was firm and stocks were subdued on Tuesday as investors braced for further shifts in U.S. trade policy and waited to hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on tariffs and inflation. Oil prices clung to a sharp bounce, with Brent crude futures above $76 a barrel. European equity futures were flat, as were FTSE futures while U.S. stock futures fell 0.2%. Trump on Monday raised tariffs on steel and aluminium imports to 25%, pushing up share prices of U.S. steelmakers, and has promised to announce global reciprocal tariffs within days. Yet he also said he was considering an exemption for Australia, after a call with Australia's Prime Minister - seemingly confirming investor assumptions that everything is negotiable. Retaliatory Chinese duties on U.S. energy and some goods came into effect on Monday, though the Hang Seng (.HSI) , opens new tab notched four-month peaks as investors wagered on an eventual deal. The Hang Seng was last about 0.4% lower but it has rallied more than 12% in a month on investor enthusiasm for artificial intelligence and chip stocks. Mainland China stock indexes dipped slightly. "He's a business person by nature, so there are deals to be done at some point," said Prashant Bhayani, chief investment officer in Asia at BNP Paribas Wealth Management. "So that's why the market's been measured (in its response)." Some of the biggest movers in Hong Kong trade were electric vehicle stocks, with BYD's Hong Kong shares hitting a record high after the company rolled out free smart driving features on almost all models including its Seagull, which costs just $9,555. Shares in the rest of the sector fell heavily. Gold hit a record peak just above $2,942 an ounce, and has rallied 63% since the low of $1,809.50 an ounce on Oct. 23, 2023. "Its surge reflects a combination of ongoing central bank buying to diversify away from the dollar, safe haven demand and positive momentum driving more buyers," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP in Sydney. FOREX In currency trade, the Chinese yuan has weakened past the 7.3 per dollar level and traded at 7.3042 on Tuesday. The Australian dollar was steady at $0.6278. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar was steady at 152.01 yen and it sat at $1.03 per euro The Canadian dollar and Mexican peso had slipped as those countries bear the brunt of Trump's metal tariffs. Fed Chair Powell is due to speak on Tuesday for the semiannual monetary policy testimony before the Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee. His comments on tariffs and inflation are likely to be closely monitored. Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields closed at 4.495% and were untraded in the Asia session owing to a public holiday in Japan, with traders shrugging off - for now - Trump appearing to question U.S. government debt figures. "The markets are likely to be wanting to see more details about what this might mean," said Mark Elworthy, head of fixed income, currency and commodity trading at Bank of America in Australia, with questions over whether Trump was possibly referring to internal departmental ownership of U.S. debt or the accounting treatment of Treasuries. "I’m only guessing, but it will be interesting to see if more comes of this in the coming days.” Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-pix-2025-02-10/

2025-02-10 19:44

Canadian dollar falls 0.1% against the greenback Trades in a range of 1.4289 to 1.4379 2-year yield eases 4.5 basis points to 2.651% TORONTO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart on Monday but the move was limited as investors weighed the threat of U.S. steel and aluminum tariffs against recent upbeat data for the domestic economy. The loonie was trading 0.1% lower at 1.4310 per U.S. dollar, or 69.88 U.S. cents, after trading in a range of 1.4289 to 1.4379. U.S. President Donald Trump is expected to introduce new 25% tariffs on Monday or Tuesday on all U.S. steel and aluminum imports, on top of existing metals duties, in another major escalation of his trade policy shakeup. Canada is a major exporter of steel to the United States and it accounted for 79% of U.S. primary aluminum imports in the first 11 months of 2024. "There are meaningful consequences for both countries," Shaun Osborne, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank, said in a note. "While tariff concerns remain paramount for policymakers right now, evidence of very firm growth momentum late last year and into Q1 suggest the Bank (of Canada) can afford to await developments before judging whether more accommodation is needed." Canada's economy added 76,000 jobs in January, eclipsing expectations for a gain of 25,000, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly dipped to 6.6%, data on Friday showed. Still, speculators have raised their bearish bets on the Canadian dollar, separate data on Friday from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. As of Feb. 4, net short positions had increased to 160,444 contracts from 147,601 in the prior week. Canadian bond yields eased across a steeper curve. The 2-year fell 4.5 basis points to 2.651%, while it was trading a further 3.7 basis points below the U.S. equivalent to a spread of about 162 basis points. That is nearly the largest gap since September 1997. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/canadian-dollar-eases-ahead-expected-metals-duties-2025-02-10/

2025-02-10 19:09

Brazil, Mexico await Trump's tariff decision before responding Brazil official denies report it could levy tariffs on U.S. tech firms in retaliation Mexico, Brazil target Chinese steel dumping with tariffs MEXICO CITY/SAO PAULO, Feb 10 (Reuters) - Brazil and Mexico, two top shippers of steel to the U.S., will wait to see if U.S. President Donald Trump announces tariffs on steel and aluminum imports before reacting, officials from both nations said on Monday. Trump is expected to introduce new 25% tariffs on Monday on all steel and aluminum imports into the United States, on top of existing metals duties, in another major escalation of his shake-up of trade policy. Nearly a quarter of all steel used in the U.S. is imported, and Trump has vowed to revive domestic output after U.S. firms have idled mills in recent years. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum said in a press conference on Monday that her administration was going to "wait to see if anything is announced today, and from there we'll make a decision." Meanwhile, Brazil's finance minister, Fernando Haddad, said that the South American nation's government would "only make statements at the appropriate time and based on concrete decisions, not on announcements that could be misinterpreted or revised." Haddad made the comments after a local newspaper reported that Brazil could impose taxes on U.S. tech companies in retaliation for steel tariffs. Haddad called the report "not correct." In his first term, Trump imposed tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum, though Brazil and Mexico were among the countries later exempted from them. Some of the region's top steel firms heavily serve the U.S. market. Ternium (TX.N) , opens new tab, which shipped a record 4.1 million metric tons of steel in Mexico in the third quarter, counts U.S. automakers building cars in the country among its top clients. It is building a new plant in northern Mexico to meet steel requirements under Mexico's trilateral trade agreement with the U.S. and Canada. New York-listed shares of Ternium were up 0.8% on Monday afternoon. Shares of Ternium-controlled Usiminas (USIM5.SA) , opens new tab climbed around 2% in Brazil trading, with only a small percentage of its steel shipments heading abroad. Brazilian steelmaker Gerdau (GGBR4.SA) , opens new tab stands to benefit from the tariffs, as it operates 11 production units in the U.S. and Canada. Its shares jumped more than 4%. 'DUMPING' FROM CHINA Steel industry leaders worldwide have in recent years accused China of engaging in a practice known as "dumping," in which it sells surplus steel abroad at below-market prices. Both Brazil and Mexico in recent months have slapped Chinese steel imports with double-digit tariffs in a bid to curb the practice, though Brazilian steelmakers have called for even higher taxes to be implemented. Trump has accused Mexico of acting as a back door for Chinese trade to the U.S. Officials in the administration of President Joe Biden, Trump's predecessor, made similar accusations regarding Mexico's steel shipments, arguing it was possible they had originated in China. Mexico's economy ministry last week rolled out a mechanism to better track steel imports and exports as well as their countries of origin. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/mexico-await-potential-trump-steel-aluminum-tariffs-before-reacting-president-2025-02-10/