2025-02-07 15:24

Prime Minister Mishustin reports 2024 economic figures Russian economy grew by 4.1% in 2024 Putin asks the government to fight inflation Putin calls for balanced economic growth in 2025 MOSCOW, Feb 7 (Reuters) - High inflation is the key challenge for the Russian economy in 2025, while the economic growth rate is expected to fall from 4.1% recorded last year, Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin told President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Consumer prices grew by 9.5% in 2024 and have continued to climb this year, reaching 9.9% on an annual basis. Inflation has been fuelled mainly by massive state spending over the last three years to finance the war in Ukraine and the military-industrial complex. "It is absolutely clear that the main challenge is inflation," Mishustin told Putin at a meeting in the Kremlin, as he reported full-year statistics for 2024. Inflation has become the main headache for Russia's economy and for consumers, who have seen prices for staple foods such as butter, eggs and potatoes rise by double-digit percentages in supermarkets. The central bank hiked its benchmark interest rate to 21% last October, the highest level since the early 2000s, to bring inflation rates down but paused at the last meeting in December after complaints from businesses about high borrowing costs. "Our task, first and foremost, is to transition to a very responsible fiscal and macroeconomic policy in collaboration with the Bank of Russia," Mishustin said, in a veiled reference to two budget deficit increases last year. "The economic growth next year may not be as significant, but it is very important to stop inflation and do everything necessary to ensure long-term economic growth based on a stable macroeconomic situation," he added. BALANCED GROWTH Mishustin said the economy grew by 4.1% in 2024, slightly better than the official forecast of 3.9%, with industrial output growth at 4.6%, driven by the manufacturing sector, where growth reached 8.5%. Many economists, including some working with the government, say that industrial growth is mainly concentrated in military-related sectors, while many civilian industries are stagnating. The central bank is forecasting that growth rates will come down to 0.5% to 1.5% next year as the economy cools down. High interest rates, along with labour shortages, have strained the economy in recent months. Putin called on the government to ensure "balanced growth" and to bring down inflation rates. "The task for the current year is to get on a path of balanced growth and achieve a reduction in inflation," Putin told Mishustin, asking him to provide a plan for structural changes in the economy. Putin noted, however, that Russian economic growth was better than what he referred to as growth in "so-called developed countries," citing lower 2024 growth figures for the United States, Germany, and France. "It can be said that the country's economy has successfully coped with unprecedented sanction pressure, unlike many countries that imposed sanctions against us," Mishustin responded. ($1 = 97.0000 roubles) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russian-economy-grew-by-41-2024-slightly-exceeding-forecasts-pm-tells-putin-2025-02-07/

2025-02-07 14:54

Feb 7 (Reuters) - Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari on Friday said fresh data published Friday shows the labor market is strong, and if inflation continues to cool, the U.S. central bank's policy rate will be "modestly" lower by the end of the year than now. For now, he said, the Fed is in "wait and see" mode amid uncertainty over the economic effects of Trump administration policies, he told CNBC. With unemployment at 4% and a cooling rental market poised to help bring overall inflation closer to the Fed's 2% goal, he said, "we're in a very good place to just sit here until we get a lot more information on the tariff front, on the immigration front, on the tax front, etc." Meanwhile, he said, the next two months of inflation data will be paramount in shaping Fed policy, he said. "If we see very good data on the inflation front while the labor market stays strong, then I think that would for me move me towards supporting easing further," Kashkari said. "Barring something really surprising on the tariff front, immigration front, or fiscal policy front -- so taking off some extreme outcomes there -- I think inflation will continue to come down over this year," Kashkari said. "All things equal, I would expect the federal funds rate to be modestly lower this year, at the end of this year, relative to where we are right now." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-kashkari-sees-policy-rate-modestly-lower-end-2025-2025-02-07/

2025-02-07 14:08

Feb 7 (Reuters) - U.S. job growth slowed more than expected in January, likely restrained by wildfires in California and cold weather across much of the country, but a 4.0% unemployment rate probably gives the Federal Reserve cover to hold off cutting interest rates at least until June. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 143,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 307,000 in December, the Labor Department said on Friday. The moderation in job gains was also payback after December's robust performance. Economists had expected the establishment survey to show 170,000 jobs added. MARKET REACTION: STOCKS: S&P 500 E-minis turned 0.02% firmer, pointing to a steady open on Wall Street BONDS: The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes jumped to 4.489%, the two-year note yield jumped to 4.26% FOREX: The dollar index ticked up to 0.2% firmer and the euro extended a bit to a 0.2% loss% COMMENTS: JEFF SCHULZE, HEAD OF MARKET AND ECONOMIC STRATEGY, CLEARBRIDGE INVESTMENTS (by email) “The January jobs report missed consensus expectations but strong positive revisions to the prior two months and a drop in the unemployment rate make this a more solid print than the headline numbers suggest at first glance. One fly in the ointment is the pickup in average hourly earnings, however, we believe part of the upside is due to mix-shift distortions resulting from extreme weather, and wages are still running at a pace consistent with the Fed's 2% target on a year-over-year basis. "This release should keep the Fed in "wait and see mode" as the committee seeks more clarity on the Administration's tariff policy while the economic backdrop remains solid with a solid labor backdrop and inflation proving stickier than anticipated." CHRIS ZACCARELLI, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, NORTHLIGHT ASSET MANAGEMENT, CHARLOTTE, NORTH CAROLINA (by email) "On the surface, the large drop in Nonfarm Payrolls looks like a big miss both vs expectations (143k vs 175k) and versus last month’s 256k number, however, when you take into account that last month’s number was just revised up by 51k, the 32k miss doesn’t look bad by comparison." "It’s true that job growth appears to be slowing, but January is typically a noisy month as the surge in hiring for the holidays in December is followed by less hiring (on a net basis) in January." ADAM SARHAN, CHIEF EXECUTIVE, 50 PARK INVESTMENTS, NEW YORK "Futures are pretty much where they were before the news came out. The jobs report wasn't too hot or too cold... this allows the market to breathe a sigh of relief. At this stage in the time, no news is good news for the market. For me, the market is extremely resilient, with all of the news we've had - political, economic and earnings." WASIF LATIF, PRESIDENT AND CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER, SARMAYA PARTNERS, PRINCETON, NEW JERSEY “It looks like a bit of a mixed bag in terms of the report, with the non-farm payroll number lower than what was expected but you’ve got December revised up – which is good. And then on the positive side you have the unemployment rate going down and the average hourly earnings moving up. So it’s mixed and I think that’s what the markets are doing. Normally when you get a one-sided report you see an immediate reaction in the market. But now I think the market is still trying to digest it and see what it really means and which way it’s going to go. I saw a little dipping in equity futures and the bond market yields nudged. But it doesn’t seem like a huge move. It’s not necessarily like a middle-of-the-road Goldilocks-type of report but the fact that you have different measures going in different directions, that seems to be keeping everything in check in terms of market reaction so far.” PETER CARDILLO, CHIEF MARKET ECONOMIST, SPARTAN CAPITAL SECURITIES, NEW YORK “So basically, you know you had non-farms coming in less than than we expected, but there was a revision (to December’s payrolls) that sort of like negates the 143,000.” “But the heating up of hourly wages, especially on the month of on a year-to-year basis, that’s no good.” “Basically, it's a report that raises inflation and inflation fears. It means the Fed will probably continue with its wait-and-see attitude, and that wait-and-see might actually have to be longer than perhaps what the market is expecting.” “I would say it's not going to be detrimental to stocks in a big way, but you can see the dollar strengthening. The 10-year (Treasury yield) is moving higher.” “And that just means that the Fed is going to stay on hold for a while.” LINDSAY ROSNER, HEAD OF MULTI SECTOR FIXED INCOME INVESTING, GOLDMAN SACHS ASSET MANAGEMENT (emailed comments) "Mixed items here. Weak headline NFP with a miss to the downside, however a positive prior revision and an unemployment rate that ticked down to 4%. This month’s release was impacted by one-off factors including wildfires in California and a cold snap in other parts of the country … We think the Fed is likely to be cautious about reading too much into today’s report." BRIAN JACOBSEN, CHIEF ECONOMIST, ANNEX WEALTH MANAGEMENT, MENOMONEE FALLS, WISCONSIN "The revisions always make it messy to tease out what is signal and what is noise. The payroll gain wasn’t great, but it was decent especially considering the jump in payrolls in November and December. Aggregate weekly hours fell for the month, but that could be due to a number of factors including the severe cold weather across much of the country and the wildfires in LA. Education and health care continue to drive most of the gains. The increase in federal employment will probably shift to a decline for a while. A good base case is to think that the Fed isn’t going to prioritize inflation over employment as they approach their March meeting." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/view-sluggish-jan-payrolls-growth-shouldnt-pressure-fed-ease-soon-2025-02-07/

2025-02-07 13:44

Feb 7 (Reuters) - Traders of short-term interest-rate futures continue to bet the Federal Reserve will next cut its policy rate in June after a government report showed the U.S. unemployment rate was 4% last month. Traders also continue to see a second rate cut by the end of 2025 as more likely than not. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/traders-see-fed-cutting-rates-june-after-jobs-data-2025-02-07/

2025-02-07 12:46

NEW YORK, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Pernod Ricard (PERP.PA) , opens new tab is exploring a sale of its champagne brand G.H. Mumm, according to five sources familiar with the matter, as it looks to focus on premium labels in its portfolio. The French spirits company behind Absolut Vodka and Jameson Irish whiskey is working with investment bank Rothschild & Co on the possible divestiture, that could attract interest from other spirits and beverage companies, the sources said. The brand is unlikely to be sold for less than three times its annual sales of 200 million euros ($207 million), one of the people said. The company has been selective in who it sells assets to and a sale may not happen, the person cautioned. The sources were speaking on condition of anonymity because the matter is not public. “Pernod Ricard regularly assesses and evaluates its strategic opportunities and is continuously exploring options, including divestments or the streamlining" of businesses, the company said in a statement. "This is a usual process in line with management’s mission of delivering value to shareholders, employees, clients and stakeholders." It added no decision about any particular action had been taken. Rothschild declined to comment. ($1 = 0.9639 euros) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/retail-consumer/pernod-ricard-considers-sale-mumm-champagne-sources-say-2025-02-07/

2025-02-07 12:36

SHANGHAI, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Chinese battery giant CATL (300750.SZ) is resuming operations at its lithium lepidolite mine in China's Jiangxi province, USB said in a note on Thursday, four months after reports the company had suspended production in the area sparked a rally in lithium miners' shares. The investment bank said in the note the mine was "currently resuming" operations, based on information from Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), an information provider. The note did not give more details. UBS declined to comment further on Friday and CATL did not immediately respond to emailed questions from Reuters. SMM did not immediately respond to questions emailed after business hours. Two battery metals traders who spoke on condition of anonymity said on Friday they had heard mining in the area had resumed. CATL's mine in the southern province of Jianxi was a major contributor to rapidly growing supplies of lithium in China, the world's top processor of the battery material. Reports of its closure in September caused lithium stocks to rally sharply. In response to questions from Reuters, CATL subsequently said it had adjusted its lithium production in Yichun, Jiangxi province. Lepidolite mining is more costly than the alternative method of extracting lithium from brine. UBS analysts attributed the decision to low inventories and the company's ability to cut costs by mixing production from the site with higher grade ores. The most-traded November lithium carbonate futures contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange closed at 77,800 yuan ($10,675.81) a metric ton on Friday, up 0.3% from Thursday's close. Prices are down 4.75% from a two-month high notched on January 20. CATL's share price on the Shenzhen Stocks Exchange closed at 261.28 yuan per share on Friday, up 3.2% from Thursday. ($1 = 7.2875 Chinese yuan renminbi) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/chinese-battery-maker-catl-is-resuming-production-its-jiangxi-mine-ubs-says-2025-02-07/