2025-02-06 21:34

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Argentine analysts nudged down their forecasts for this year's inflation, according to the central bank's market expectations survey published on Thursday, while also turning slightly more upbeat about economic growth in South America's No. 2 economy. The new forecast of an annual inflation rate of 23.2% was 2.7 percentage points lower than the average level predicted in last month's central bank survey. For January, analysts predicted month-on-month price rises of 2.3%. Analysts also nudged up their economic growth forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 4.6% by the end of 2025. The survey was taken between January 29 and 31 and polled 39 participants, including consultancies, research centers and financial entities. Annual inflation has come down from a peak of nearly 290% in April last year, but as of December remained in triple-digit territory at around 118%. Monthly price increases have, meanwhile, slowed to the low single-digits. Libertarian President Javier Milei, who took office in December 2023, has launched a hard austerity push, slashing many public budgets. Price rises have steadily slowed but poverty rates surged past 50% in the first half of last year. Late last month, the central bank trimmed its benchmark interest rate to 29% from 32%, citing inflation's downward trajectory. Argentina's INDEC statistics agency is set to publish its January inflation data on February 13, and its economic growth data for the last quarter of 2024 on March 19. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/argentina-analysts-expect-lower-2025-inflation-nudge-up-economy-forecasts-2025-02-06/

2025-02-06 21:17

Feb 18 (Reuters) - Global banks predict gold prices will stay high in 2025, potentially reaching $3,000 due to geopolitical uncertainty, while Goldman Sachs revised its price target upwards citing sustained central bank demand. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end 2025 gold price forecast to $3,100 per ounce, up from $2,890 previously. Spot gold gained on Tuesday after hitting a record high at $2,942.70 per ounce on February 11. Bullion has hit eight record highs so far this year, and is up 11% so far on an annual basis. U.S. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies is one of the key reasons behind gold's recent rally, along with increased central bank appetite for the safe-haven asset. "We estimate that structurally higher central bank demand will add 9% to the gold price by year-end, which, combined with a gradual boost to ETF (exchange traded funds) holdings as the funds rate declines, should outweigh the drag from normalizing positioning, assuming uncertainty diminishes," Goldman Sachs said. "However, if policy uncertainty--including tariff fears--stays high, higher speculative positioning for longer could push gold prices as high as $3,300/toz by year-end." The bank also revised its central bank demand assumption upward to 50 tonnes per month from the previous estimate of 41 tonnes. Meanwhile, data from the World Gold Council showed global gold demand rose 1% to a record 4,974.5 metric tons in 2024. Earlier this month, Citi revised its near-term (0-3 months) price target for gold up to $3,000 per ounce from $2,800. "Ongoing tariff uncertainty could take near-term prices a bit higher in our view, likely surpassing $3,000/oz but not all the way to our bull case of around $3,400/oz," Morgan Stanley said in a note dated Friday. The following is a list of the latest brokerage forecasts for 2025 and 2026 prices for gold (in $ per ounce): *end-of-period forecasts Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-prices-remain-up-reaching-3000oz-near-term-says-citi-2025-02-06/

2025-02-06 20:57

PANAMA CITY, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Panama President Jose Raul Mulino said on Thursday the U.S. was spreading "lies and falsehoods" after the State Department claimed U.S. government vessels would be able to pass through the Panama Canal without paying. The comments were likely to exacerbate tensions between the two countries after the U.S. had cited progress on military cooperation and confronting alleged Chinese influence over the canal. Later, Mulino added on social media that he would speak to U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday afternoon. Panama has been in the White House's crosshairs since Trump claimed the country's vital waterway had effectively been taken over by China and vowed the U.S. was "taking it back." Speaking to journalists, Mulino expressed his "absolute rejection" that the two countries' relations be "based on lies and falsehoods." The Panama Canal Authority issued a statement late on Wednesday, rejecting the State Department's claim that Panama's government had agreed to no longer charge crossing fees for U.S. government vessels, a move that would save the U.S. millions of dollars a year. Trump has accused the Central American country of charging excessive rates to use its trade passage, one of the busiest in the world. U.S. military vessels have priority of passage through the waterway, according to a 1977 neutrality treaty signed when the U.S. agreed to return the canal to Panama. But all ships, regardless of origin, destination or flag, must pay tolls that vary depending on size and type. "Why are they making an important institutional statement from the entity that governs the foreign policy of the U.S., under the president of the U.S., based on a falsehood?" Mulino asked, calling the claim "simply and plainly intolerable." Mulino said he asked his ambassador in Washington to take "firm steps" to reject the claims made by the Trump administration. U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, meanwhile, said at a press conference on Thursday he believed it was "absurd" that the U.S. Navy has to pay fees to transit the canal that it is obligated to protect under the U.S.-Panama treaty. Rubio met Mulino earlier in the week during a trip through Central America. "I'm not confused about Panama," he said. "We had conversations. I felt they were strong first steps. We have expectations ... They're going to follow their process, but our expectations remain the same." After his visit to the country, Rubio welcomed in China's Belt and Road Initiative, a vast global infrastructure plan led by Beijing, calling the move "a great step forward" for bilateral ties. On Thursday, Mulino said Panama had formally presented a document to exit the Belt and Road Initiative but denied the decision had been made at the request of the U.S., adding he was taking time to evaluate Panama's relationship with China and what was best for the nation. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/panama-president-decries-us-lies-about-canal-fees-2025-02-06/

2025-02-06 20:38

Republican attorneys general oppose New York 'overreach' Lawsuit says superfund could cost jobs New York says 'corporate polluters' should pay NEW YORK, Feb 6 (Reuters) - New York was sued on Thursday by 22 other U.S. states over a new law requiring fossil fuel companies to contribute $75 billion over 25 years into a fund that will pay for damage caused by climate change. Led by West Virginia and all with Republican attorneys general, the 22 states called New York's law a politically-motivated "overreach" that punishes traditional energy companies for emitting greenhouse gases many years ago even though they complied fully with applicable laws. They said the collection of hefty payouts from coal, oil and natural gas producers violates the U.S. Constitution and is preempted by the federal Clean Air Act, and could wipe out thousands of jobs if producers are forced to shut down. New York became the second U.S. state to create an industry-financed "superfund" to address climate change, under a law signed by Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul on December 26. Vermont's superfund took effect last July. "We're not going to allow left-wing states like California, New York, Vermont to dictate to the American people how they're going to get their electricity," West Virginia Attorney General John McCuskey said at a press conference. "We need to stay ahead of countries like China, India and Russia as they move forward with their coal and gas-fired power plants," he added. The lawsuit names New York Attorney General Letitia James and two other state regulators as defendants. James' office declined to comment. The other regulators did not immediately respond to requests for comment. A spokesperson for Hochul said the governor "believes corporate polluters should pay for the wreckage caused by the climate crisis--not everyday New Yorkers. We look forward to defending this landmark legislation in court." West Virginia is second among U.S. states in coal production, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said. Other plaintiffs include three coal trade groups and Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR.N) , opens new tab, a large coal miner. The lawsuit is being filed in federal court in Albany, New York, the state's capital. New York's law requires fossil fuel companies to contribute $3 billion annually starting in 2028 to the superfund, divided based on the amount of greenhouse gases they emitted into the atmosphere between 2000 and 2018. The law applies to companies that the state's Department of Environmental Conservation considers responsible for 1 billion tons of greenhouse gas emissions during that period. Money would help build infrastructure such as roads, water systems and sewage systems to protect communities and coastlines from weather events such as extreme heat and flooding. On Dec. 30, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Petroleum Institute sued Vermont to block that state's superfund. That case remains pending. President Donald Trump, a Republican, won 70% of the West Virginia vote in November's election. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/legal/new-york-is-sued-over-75-billion-climate-superfund-2025-02-06/

2025-02-06 20:29

Feb 6 (Reuters) - Canadian pipeline operator Trans Mountain is looking at expansion projects in the short and long terms that could add between 200,000 and 300,000 barrels per day (bpd) of capacity to the company's system, Jason Balasch, a company vice president, said on Thursday. The pipeline, which can currently carry up to 890,000 bpd of crude from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast for export, has been in the spotlight since U.S. President Donald Trump said his country would slap 10% tariffs on Canadian oil imports. Trump on Monday paused the oil tariff -- and others that he said he would impose on Canada and Mexico -- for 30 days. The pipeline has offered a way for Canadian oil producers to sell to international markets without relying on the U.S. network of pipelines. The pipeline currently accounts for 9% of Canada's total crude exports. Trans Mountain is exploring short-term options, including using a drag-reducing agent in its pipeline to boost the flows and longer-term solutions like adding pumps, Balasch said on the sidelines of an oil conference in Houston. The company is not looking to add a third line, Balasch said. Trans Mountain should be able to load a total of 28-30 tankers per month at Vancouver once port restrictions ease to allow nighttime transit, which is expected in the third quarter, he added. The Port of Vancouver is in the process of installing navigation aids. When fully operational, the upgrades will allow shippers to bring inbound unladen Aframax vessels at night, easing previous daylight-only transit restrictions that have limited Trans Mountain's loadings. Trans Mountain has so far loaded a maximum of 24 Aframax vessels per month. Aframaxes typically transport up to 800,000 barrels, but at the company's Westridge marine terminal they are limited to loading around 550,000 barrels because of draft restrictions. The company was also receiving increased inquiries from new potential shippers since the tariff threats, Balasch said, adding that utilization on the pipeline had been rising even before Trump's announcement. "I think there's a lot of Asian markets that we could access," Balasch said. "Our system isn't full and we're confident we can operate it to it's maximum." The Canadian government, which owns Trans Mountain, has been supportive of expansions, Balasch added. The company has been laying the groundwork for the expansion since before and the "tariff has just increased the brightness of that spot," Balasch said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/trans-mountain-says-projects-could-expand-pipeline-capacity-by-300000-bpd-2025-02-06/

2025-02-06 20:18

HOUSTON, Feb 6 (Reuters) - Growth in oil output from the U.S. Permian basin, the country's top oilfield, is expected to slow by at least 25% this year despite President Donald Trump's vow to maximize production, energy executives forecast on Thursday. At a conference in Houston, they said production is expected to rise in 2025 by about 250,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 300,000 bpd from the shale formation spread across Texas and New Mexico, down from last year's 380,000-bpd increase. That forecast aligns with the U.S. Energy Information Administration's projection of a 300,000-bpd rise. Total Permian output hit 6.3 million bpd last year, accounting for about half of total U.S. output. "We still expect to see growth in the Permian but we expect to see that moderated versus the rate of growth we have seen before," Barbara Harrison, vice president of crude supply and trading at Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab told Reuters on the sidelines of the conference. Chevron's Permian production grew 14% year-over-year, the company reported in its Q4 earnings, to a record 992,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), bringing the company close to its 1 million-boepd target. "We are predicting closer to 9-10% over the next couple of years, continuing to grow our production there but not necessarily at the same rate that we have done in the past," Harrison said. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said he believes Permian operators will keep capital spending modest and grow within their means, unlike the 2010s shale boom when their focus was to pump more. "Drill, baby, drill is not going to happen," Shannon Flowers, director of crude and water marketing at Coterra Energy (CTRA.N) , opens new tab said on the sidelines of the Argus Global Crude Summit in Houston. "The tension that we have right now is that the Trump administration said it wants lower energy prices. That's not necessarily good for producers," Flowers added. U.S. refiner Delek's (DK.N) , opens new tab CEO Avigal Soreq concurred. Producers are focusing on keeping capital spending under control and achieving higher prices for their oil and gas. They have prioritized returning cash to shareholders after a pricing rout in the last decade hurt profits and share prices. While the U.S. is already the world's top oil producer with output of about 13.2 million bpd in 2024, total U.S. production growth has slowed in recent years, climbing only about 280,000 bpd last year. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-permian-basins-oil-output-growth-slow-2025-despite-trumps-plan-executives-say-2025-02-06/