2025-11-13 06:02

Wall Street stocks post biggest drop in a month Bond yields rise as rate cut prospects fade US dollar slips; Crude settles modestly higher Gold pulls back from 3-week high NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Wall Street indexes suffered their biggest one-day decline in a month on Thursday, pushing down MSCI's global equities gauge while U.S. Treasury yields rose as investor bets for a December rate cut took a dive after hawkish comments by Federal Reserve officials. In currencies, the dollar fell despite the prospects for slower rate cuts, in the first trading day after the House of Representatives voted late on Wednesday to reopen the U.S. government from its longest shutdown in history and President Donald Trump signed the bill. Sign up here. Investors had been pouring into equities in recent sessions in anticipation of an end to the shutdown, which disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid, and snarled air traffic while putting a pause on crucial economic data releases. However, Trump administration officials dashed hopes for a clearer view of the U.S. economy any time soon. The White House indicated that the U.S. unemployment rate for October may never be available, since it is dependent on a household survey that was not conducted during the shutdown. And pointing to worries about high inflation after two U.S. interest rate cuts this year, a growing number of signaled caution about further rate cuts. Alberto Musalem, who runs the St Louis Federal Reserve Bank, reiterated his view that there was limited room to ease further without becoming overly accommodative. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack said interest rate policy should remain restrictive in order to put downward pressure on still concerning levels of inflation. Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari said inflation was too high while parts of the labor market "look like they're under pressure." Earlier, San Francisco Federal Reserve President Mary Daly said the risks to the Fed's two goals are now balanced after two rate cuts already this year. Trader bets for a December rate cut were last showing a 51.9% probability, down from 62.9% on Wednesday, according to CME Group's FedWatch , opens new tab tool. "Markets were counting on a cut, and we may not get it," said Bob Doll, chief executive and chief investment officer at Crossmark, pointing to cautious Fed comments on the prospects for a December easing of rates. "Most of them are putting up warning signs that it's not a 'gimme', just like the Fed Chair told us when he did this presser after the last Fed meeting. In some sense, it's not new, but people didn't believe it." Anthony Saglimbene, chief market strategist at Ameriprise, said investors are looking at high valuations in heavyweight technology and artificial intelligence-linked stocks, adding to their worries about a continued lack of clarity around the U.S. economy. So, he said, it was not surprising to "see investors take a step back from risk, sell down the winners and go into the defensive areas of the market." EQUITIES MARK BIGGEST DROP IN A MONTH On Wall Street, the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab led losses, closing down 536.10 points, or 2.29%, at 22,870.36. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab fell 797.60 points, or 1.65%, to 47,457.22, while the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab fell 113.43 points, or 1.66%, to 6,737.49. All three indexes registered their biggest daily declines since October 10. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab was down 12.07 points, or 1.19%, at 999.71, which would also be its biggest daily drop since October 10. Earlier in the day, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed down 0.61% while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab finished off 0.66%. Both had hit record highs during their trading day. In U.S. Treasuries, prices retreated, driving yields higher, as investors scaled back expectations for imminent rate cuts amid lingering uncertainty over the inflation outlook and stark divisions among Fed policymakers on the trajectory of the U.S. economy and monetary policy. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 4.4 basis points to 4.123%, from 4.079% late on Wednesday while the 30-year bond yield rose 5.4 basis points to 4.7162%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 3.1 basis points to 3.597%. DOLLAR FALLS AGAINST EURO, YEN In currencies, the U.S. dollar dipped as the government reopened, leaving traders grappling with the long-term impact of the shutdown on trust in the U.S. currency while investors waited for data on the health of the economy. Meanwhile, European financial stability officials were debating whether to create an alternative to Federal Reserve funding backstops by pooling dollars held by non-U.S. central banks, aiming to reduce their reliance on the U.S. under the Trump administration, five officials familiar with the matter told Reuters. "The shutdown is over, but how soon are we going to go back to normal? How soon are we going to have numbers? How soon am I going to be able to do real, accurate analysis based on trusted American statistics from September and October? That's in doubt," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, fell 0.29% to 99.19, with the euro up 0.34% at $1.1631. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar weakened 0.12% to154.58. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin was down 3.24% at $98,578.10, after falling to its lowest level since May. In energy markets, oil futures settled slightly higher after selling off sharply in the previous session, as investors weighed concerns about global oversupply against looming sanctions against Russia's Lukoil. U.S. crude settled up 0.34%, or 20 cents, at $58.69 a barrel while Brent settled at $63.01 per barrel, up 0.48%, or 30 cents, on the day. Gold prices pulled back after hitting a three-week high earlier in the session, amid the broad market selloff that followed the reopening of the U.S. government. Spot gold fell 0.51% to $4,177.21 an ounce. U.S. gold futures fell 0.96% to $4,164.10 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-13/

2025-11-13 05:56

MUMBAI, Nov 13 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee closed marginally lower on Thursday as outflows and dollar demand spurred by persistent hedging from importers eclipsed the positive impulse from a broadly weaker dollar. The rupee closed at 88.6650 against the U.S. dollar, down slightly from its close at 88.63 in the previous session. Sign up here. Portfolio outflows from local stocks and persistent dollar demand from local companies have become sore points for the South Asian currency, increasing its reliance on central bank interventions to hold above its all-time low of 88.80 per dollar. On Thursday too, state-run banks were spotted offering dollars which helped the rupee hold its ground. The dollar sales were "intermittent and measured," a trader at a private bank said. "The line on the sand appears to have (been) drawn at 88.80, ahead of 89.00 and psychologically key level of 90.00. Intervention presence has been relatively aggressive at the spot as well as forwards/NDF space," DBS said in a note. Foreign investors have net sold over $850 million of Indian stocks in November so far. Foreign portfolio investors' ownership in companies listed on India's National Stock Exchange has declined to just under 17%, the lowest in over 15 years, per a note from the exchange on Thursday. Meanwhile, the dollar index fell 0.2% to 99.1, its lowest level in nearly two weeks, after U.S. President Donald Trump approved a deal to reopen the U.S. government, removing a major source of uncertainty. Asian currencies were up between 0.2% to 0.4% while global equities advanced as well. India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab ended flat on the day. Later in the day the focus will be on remarks from U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers for cues on the trajectory of the central bank's benchmark interest rates. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-hold-narrow-range-flows-pressure-rbi-barrier-2025-11-13/

2025-11-13 05:33

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook U.S. President Donald Trump signed a bill ending the longest U.S. government shutdown on record with a late-night ceremony at the Oval Office, following a planned dinner with Jamie Dimon and top Wall Street executives. Sign up here. It's unclear just how quickly full government services and operations will resume. Data publication is top of the agenda in markets, with September's jobs report likely to be one of the first catch-up indicators released and investors anticipating it might support a rate cut, following soft figures in recent private surveys. Some data gaps are likely to be permanent, however, with the White House saying October's employment and Consumer Price Index reports might never be released. Stocks took a breather in Asia, with broad indexes drifting higher and Japan's Topix (.TOPX) , opens new tab hitting a record - following records for the Dow (.DJI) , opens new tab, FTSE (.FTSE) , opens new tab and pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab - an indication of a small rotation from AI. Rising gold prices also took a pause. Japan's yen , meanwhile, has been sliding close to intervention territory. A brief blip above 155 per dollar on Wednesday drew a finance ministry reminder that authorities were watching closely. It kept on the strong side of that level in Asia trade, though it did sag to a record low of 179.49 per euro. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi wants rates to stay low and has asked for close coordination with the Bank of Japan. On Thursday, BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signalled his goals aligned with the government's focus on reflating growth, telling parliament he was aiming for moderate inflation accompanied by wage rises. In Australia, a surprise surge in October employment has markets dialling back rate cut bets, while an ex-dividend fall in ANZ Bank (ANZ.AX) , opens new tab shares dragged down the index. A slew of earnings is due from the close of trade in Asia onwards, with Tencent (0700.HK) , opens new tab offering a possible read on China's consumers and updates from China's SMIC (0981.HK) , opens new tab watched for an insight into U.S.-China technology tensions. Results at German industrial giant Siemens (SIEGn.DE) , opens new tab will show how it has been navigating tariffs and a patchy global economy. Key developments that could influence markets on Thursday: https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2025-11-13/

2025-11-13 03:15

Underlying inflation accelerating toward 2%, BOJ's Ueda says BOJ aims to achieve moderate inflation driven by wages, growth Finance minister says inflation yet to durably hit BOJ target Yen, bonds sold on expectation of big spending, slow rate hike Weak yen exposes contradiction of Takaichi policy, analyst says TOKYO, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said the central bank is aiming for moderate inflation accompanied by wage rises and economic improvement, signalling that its goal aligns with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi's focus on reviving growth. Moreover, giving voice to the Takaichi administration's view that it was premature for the central bank to raise interest rates, Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama said inflation has yet to sustainably hit the BOJ's 2% target. Sign up here. "The government hopes the BOJ conducts monetary policy so that inflation stably and sustainably moves around 2%. We haven't seen this happen yet," Katayama told parliament on Thursday, adding that Japan did not need to worry much about the risk of too-high inflation. The remarks highlight the political barrier the BOJ will face in proceeding with a rate hike the governor had signalled could happen as soon as December. Speaking in the same parliament session, Ueda said domestic consumption is resilient with a tight job market pushing up pay, and sustaining a moderate cycle of rising wages and inflation. While rising raw material costs were lifting food prices, a gradual economic recovery was leading to price rises for other goods and services, Ueda said. "When we look at underlying inflation that strips away temporary factors, it is gradually accelerating toward our 2% target," Ueda said, suggesting that Japan was making progress in meeting the conditions for raising interest rates. "The BOJ is aiming to achieve moderate inflation accompanied by rising wages, with improvements in the economy increasing consumption and capital expenditure," Ueda said. TAKAICHI'S POLICY PREFERENCES COMPLICATE BOJ'S TASK The BOJ last year ended a decade-long, massive stimulus deployed under former governor Haruhiko Kuroda that was part of deceased premier Shinzo Abe's "Abenomics" stimulus package. It then raised short-term rates twice to 0.5% by January, but has kept borrowing costs steady since then to assess the economic impact of higher U.S. tariffs. The BOJ's efforts to bring rates closer to levels neutral to the economy, which analysts estimate to be between 1% and 1.5%, have been complicated by the inauguration of premier Takaichi, an advocate of expansionary fiscal and monetary policy. Her administration has pledged to roll out a big spending package to cushion the economic blow from rising living costs. She also filled seats in key government panels with reflationists who favour looser fiscal policy backed by low rates such as former BOJ deputy governor Masazumi Wakatabe. Yield on Japan's super-long government bonds rose to a near one-month high on Wednesday on market concerns over Takaichi's spending plans. The yen also fell against the dollar and euro on expectations the BOJ will go slow on future rate hikes. The Japanese currency was little changed at 179.32 per euro in Asia on Thursday, having dipped to a record low of 179.47 overnight. It was steady at 154.82 per dollar after sliding to a nine-month low of 155.05 on Wednesday. A weak yen pushes up import costs and accelerates the very inflation Takaichi is trying to contain. Verbal warnings by the finance minister on Wednesday failed to keep yen falls in check. The new administration's big spending plan is also inflationary as it works to boost demand, some analysts say. "Market fears Takaichi's aggressive spending would worsen Japan's finances are pushing down the yen, which in turn accelerates inflation and hurts households," said former BOJ board member Takahide Kiuchi. "This is a big contradiction and weakness of the Takaichi administration's fiscal policy." https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/boj-targetting-moderate-inflation-backed-by-wage-gains-ueda-says-2025-11-13/

2025-11-13 01:49

Jobless rate falls to 4.3%, vs 4.5% in Sept The economy adds 42,200 jobs, driven by full time roles Markets virtually price out chance of policy easing next year SYDNEY, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Australian employment surged in October as firms took on more full-time workers, pulling the jobless rate down from a four-year high and bolstering a growing view that the current easing cycle may have run its course. The strong report sent the Australian dollar up 0.3% to a ten-day high of $0.6560, while three-year government bond futures tumbled 11 ticks to 96.17, the lowest in over seven months. Sign up here. Markets were quick to sharply scale back the chance of any more policy easing from the Reserve Bank of Australia next year, with the probability for a May cut collapsing to 25%, down from nearly 70% before the data. "Today's print is both a blessing and a curse for the RBA," said Harry Murphy Cruise, head of economic research for Oxford Economics Australia. "Renewed strength in the labour market risks putting upward pressure on prices at a time when inflation is already rising." Figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday showed net employment rose 42,200 in October from September, when it increased 12,700. That was far above market forecasts of a 20,000 gain, and underpinned by a 55,300 surge in full-time roles. The participation rate held steady at 67%, while hours worked rose another solid 0.5%. Most crucially, the jobless rate eased back to 4.3% from 4.5%, which had been the highest reading since November 2021. INFLATION PRESSURES KEEP RBA CAUTIOUS The RBA held interest rates at 3.6% this month after three rate cuts this year, saying it was cautious about easing further given higher inflation, firmer consumer demand and a revival in the housing market. A surprisingly high third-quarter inflation reading meant the central bank now saw inflation stuck above the 2-3% target band until mid-2026 and settling at 2.6%, above the 2.5% mid-point of its target range. It has judged the labour market to be on the tight side, but does not expect much loosening from here, with the jobless rate forecast to hover at 4.4% for the foreseeable future. The robust jobs added to a slew of upbeat data suggesting there was little urgency for the RBA to cut rates anytime soon as policymakers debate whether the monetary policy is restrictive. Business surveys are generally upbeat and the consumer mood turned optimistic for the very first time in nearly four years as lower borrowing costs and past tax cuts feed through to incomes. "The Reserve Bank has highlighted that the economy may be close to its supply capacity, which means it cannot cut the cash rate much further, if at all, without generating inflation," said Cherelle Murphy, chief economist at EY. "A surprise uptick in underlying inflation and a continuation of the tight jobs market means there may be no more interest rate cuts in the foreseeable future." https://www.reuters.com/business/world-at-work/australia-employment-rises-42200-october-jobless-rate-falls-43-2025-11-13/

2025-11-13 00:54

LONDON, Nov 13 (Reuters) - Most big emerging economies, including China, Brazil and India, can weather U.S. tariffs without excessive pain, a study by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft showed, raising doubt about the clout of President Donald Trump's trade tools. The firm analysed the resilience of 20 of the biggest emerging markets using measures from debt levels to export-revenue reliance to gauge their ability to handle trade volatility and rapidly shifting geopolitical alliances. Sign up here. "Most manufacturing hubs globally are in a better position in their current baseline than you would think or give them credit for to weather this tariff storm specifically coming out of the U.S., even if it comes to full capacity," said Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research who co-authored the report. Mexico and Vietnam are among the most exposed to U.S. trade dependence, the paper showed, but progressive economic policies, improving infrastructure and political stability meant they were among the more resilient economies. Brazil and South Africa, it said, are effectively building links with other trade partners that could shield them in coming years. "Almost every emerging market or global market understands that we need to do business with the U.S. and China, but we can't over-rely on either. So we need a third market," Bhattacharya said, adding that trade between members of the BRICS group of developing nations was rising. The Maplecroft paper did not examine BRICS member Russia. China, though particularly exposed to geopolitical tensions with the United States, "is so entrenched it's actually almost impossible to replicate it elsewhere", she added, citing Beijing's diversified export base and its human capital. A manufacturing juggernaut, China is in the crosshairs of Trump's efforts to reshape global trade policy. Data out earlier this week showed that in October, China exports suffered their worst downturn since February, shortly after Trump returned to the White House. Bhattacharya also pointed to China's years-long effort to expand use of the renminbi in trade settlements as "a pragmatic push for economic resilience and geopolitical risk diversification". Brazil, Argentina and Chile have signed local-currency settlement arrangements with China's central bank, while Chinese state-owned enterprises and investors are financing lithium and copper projects in Chile, Bolivia and Peru. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/most-emerging-nations-can-realign-trade-weather-us-tariffs-report-finds-2025-11-13/