2026-01-07 05:35

Economy facing a lot of uncertainty, central bank says Inflation below target, deflation risk monitored CPI falls 0.28% y/y in December BANGKOK, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Thailand's central bank said on Wednesday the economy is facing challenges, including a sustained decline in competitiveness, with exports expected to be negatively affected by U.S. tariffs and the persistently overvalued baht. Southeast Asia's second-largest economy has been struggling with an appreciating currency, U.S. tariffs, high household debt, a border conflict with Cambodia and political uncertainty ahead of elections in early February. Sign up here. "This year there is a lot of uncertainty," said Bank of Thailand deputy governor Piti Disyatat. "Policy room is low, but that doesn't mean there is none," he told reporters. "If we think it is necessary then it will be used." In a report released ahead of a policy forum, the Bank of Thailand said that GDP growth in the second half of last year is expected to have reached 1.3% year-on-year, with exports up 9.1% over the period. The headline consumer price index (THCPI=ECI) , opens new tab dropped 0.28% in December from a year earlier, following an annual fall of 0.49% in the previous month, the commerce ministry said on Wednesday, to remain well below the central bank's inflation target range of 1% to 3%. Core CPI (THCPIX=ECI) , opens new tab, which excludes volatile energy and fresh food prices, rose 0.59% in December from a year earlier. According to figures from the trade ministry, the headline CPI dipped 0.14% over 2025 compared to a year earlier, dragged down by lower fuel and electricity prices. The ministry said it expected headline inflation to be in a range of -0.5% to 1% in the first quarter of 2026 and at 0.0% to 1.0% for the year as a whole. The central bank said medium-term inflation expectations were still anchored within the 1% to 3% target range, but said the possibility of deflation could not be ruled out. "At this time, we think there is no deflation risk," said Sakkapop Panyanakul, director of the bank's Monetary Policy Group. "We are not seeing it yet, but it is an issue that must be monitored." The central bank also said the strong baht was tightening liquidity for small- to medium-sized exporters, which is weighing on shipments. The currency gained more than 10% against the dollar last year. On Tuesday, the BOT's Piti told the Reuters Global Markets Forum that economic growth was expected to have turned positive in the fourth quarter of 2025, and he expected last year's growth forecast of 2.2% would be met. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/thai-economys-competitiveness-is-declining-central-bank-says-2026-01-07/

2026-01-07 05:31

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Rocky Swift As Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro awaits his fate in a New York jail, nearly $2 billion worth of the nation's oil appears to be bound for the United States as well. Sign up here. The toppled leader and the country's petroleum reserves are two immediate spoils from U.S. President Donald Trump's recent embrace of military force to achieve policy goals. In recent days, he's hinted at strikes against Colombia and Mexico, as well as using U.S. Armed Forces in taking frigid Greenland, long an object of fascination for the Trump administration. Markets have taken the events largely in stride, with crude reacting the most on the prospect of some 50 million barrels of sanctioned Venezuelan oil due to be shipped and sold in the U.S. under a plan announced by Trump. U.S. oil executives are expected to visit the White House as early as Thursday to discuss investments in Venezuela, according to three sources familiar with the planning. Rising geopolitical risks, which include simmering tensions between China and its neighbours, have kept the safe haven of gold near its record high. And supply concerns for industrial metals have driven a spike in prices, including all-time highs for copper. Asian shares traded mostly lower, failing to keep up momentum that drove U.S. and European benchmarks to record levels overnight. Japanese shares in particular were weighed down as a diplomatic rift with China resulted in Beijing banning exports of certain goods that can be used for military purposes, a move decried by Tokyo as "unacceptable". It's not all sabre-rattling. The main economic event this week remains key U.S. employment data on Friday that offer hints on monetary policy from the Federal Reserve, with markets pricing in two more rate cuts this year. But as a prelude, Wednesday brings the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) as well as ADP private payrolls data. Key developments that could influence markets on Wednesday: - German data on retail sales, unemployment - France consumer confidence for December - Construction PMIs for euro zone, Germany, France, Britain - U.S. JOLTS, ADP employment reports https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-view-europe-2026-01-07/

2026-01-07 05:23

MUMBAI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended higher for second consecutive session on Wednesday on likely dollar sales from state-run banks, which traders said could be on behalf of the central bank, helping reverse the pressure from slightly softer Asian cues. The rupee ended 0.3% higher at 89.88, its highest closing level in a week, after closing at 90.1650 in the previous session. It hit an intraday high of 89.86. Sign up here. The Reserve Bank of India resorted to heavy intervention to support the rupee once again, nine traders said, and that pushed the currency past the 90-per-dollar mark. Wednesday's intervention followed a familiar playbook that the RBI used repeatedly last year, when it stepped in aggressively to push the rupee higher, aiming to disrupt one-way moves. Previous interventions came amid a build-up of speculative long dollar positions and expectations of consistent rupee depreciation, according to bankers. Before the central bank intervention on Wednesday, the rupee had fallen about 1% over the past two weeks. The local currency rupee continues to face headwinds from persistent foreign selling of Indian equities, a trend that has extended from 2025 into the New Year, alongside lingering uncertainty over a U.S.–India trade deal. "Going forward, resilient macro fundamentals and an improvement in capital flows as U.S. related trade uncertainty eases, should reduce pressure on the rupee. However, we expect the currency to remain range-bound, as the RBI rebuilds FX reserves if portfolio inflows recover," Goldman Sachs said in a note. It forecasts the currency to be at around 89.50 in three months and 91 in six months. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/indian-central-bank-reprises-heavy-intervention-lift-rupee-traders-say-2026-01-07/

2026-01-07 05:06

TOKYO, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Japan's nuclear regulator on Wednesday said it was halting the screening needed to restart Chubu Electric Power's (9502.T) , opens new tab only nuclear power plant, two days after the company reported inappropriate seismic data handling for the regulatory review. The watchdog's move stalls Chubu's effort to resume two reactors at its Hamaoka Nuclear Power Station on the Pacific coast that have been idled since the 2011 Fukushima disaster, while nuclear plants restart in other parts of Japan. Sign up here. "This is fabrication of critical inspection data, which I clearly consider misconduct," Nuclear Regulation Authority Chairman Shinsuke Yamanaka told a regular commissioner meeting. "There appears no objection to halting the review" for the restart of the Hamaoka plant, he added. Chubu shares tumbled nearly 10% on Tuesday, the most in more than 13 years, after the company said it had used a different method than explained to regulators to select seismic waves for the review. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/japan-stops-chubu-electrics-nuclear-review-due-flawed-seismic-data-2026-01-07/

2026-01-07 04:05

BERLIN, Jan 7 (Reuters) - Germany's greenhouse gas emissions fell only marginally in 2025, as weak progress in cutting pollution from buildings and transport weighed on the overall climate balance, energy think tank Agora Energiewende said on Wednesday. Germany emitted 640 million tons of carbon dioxide in 2025, down 1.5% or 9 million tons from the previous year, Agora said in its annual review. Sign up here. While Germany met its national annual emissions target for 2025, the reduction was less than half the savings recorded in 2024, Agora's calculations showed. The decline in 2025 emissions was driven partly by lower output in energy-intensive industry amid prolonged weak demand and strained global market conditions, and partly by record solar power generation, Agora said. "Wind and solar energy will remain the backbone of Germany's energy transition in 2025 as well," said Julia Blaesius, director of Agora Energiewende Germany. "However, the power sector - so far the driving force behind emissions reductions - cannot permanently compensate for the shortcomings in switching to climate technologies in transport and buildings," Blaesius said. Emissions in buildings rose by 3.2% compared with 2024 and emissions in the transport sector rose by 1.4% on the year, Agora estimated. ($1 = 0.92 euros) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/german-emissions-fell-only-modestly-2025-due-buildings-transport-2026-01-07/

2026-01-07 03:00

MUMBAI, Jan 7 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee is set to open largely unchanged on Wednesday and trade in a narrow range, with expectations of central bank support blunting pressure from slightly softer Asian cues. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated the rupee will open flat, having settled 0.12% higher at 90.1650 on Tuesday. Sign up here. The rupee snapped a four-day losing streak in the last session, with bankers flagging possible support from the Reserve Bank of India, though there was no clarity over the extent and nature of the central bank's involvement. The currency rallied to nearly 90.10 intraday before importer demand, and to a lesser extent speculative dollar buying, surfaced. Before Tuesday's modest recovery, the currency had witnessed a near 1% drop in a span of two weeks. "After a fairly decent move higher (on dollar/rupee), it was only natural to see a sort of a pullback in dollar/rupee," a currency trader said, adding, "The RBI may have stepped in to temper the building momentum." "The bigger picture, however, from the recent price action and flows, is that the structural bias is for a weaker rupee remains biased weaker, with RBI intervention or expectations of it smoothing the pace." Meanwhile, most Asian currencies inched lower, while the dollar index hovered near 98.50. The focus will be on a busy slate of U.S. economic releases this week, which traders say will shape expectations for the Federal Reserve's rate path. MUFG Bank reckons that the upside on dollar, which it said was finding support at 98, remains constrained for now amid market expectations of further Fed rate cuts. Markets have thus far largely shrugged the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and the capture of President Nicolas Maduro. U.S. equities rallied on Tuesday, while U.S. Treasuries dipped. KEY INDICATORS: ** Brent crude futures down 0.9% at $60.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.17% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors bought a net $81.7 million worth of Indian shares on January 2 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $38.7 million worth of Indian bonds on January 2 https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rbi-support-cushion-india-rupee-downside-amid-asia-softness-2026-01-07/