2025-11-12 18:57

BENGALURU, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve will again lower its key interest rate by 25 basis points next month to underpin a weakening labor market, according to 80% of economists polled by Reuters, up slightly from a poll taken last month. That strengthening resolve contrasts with the clear disagreement among Federal Open Market Committee members on whether the economy needs another reduction this year, especially in the absence of key official data during the longest-ever government shutdown. Sign up here. Following a quarter percentage-point cut last month which drew rare dissent in two directions, Chair Jerome Powell warned that a December reduction was not a foregone conclusion. An 80% majority of economists, 84 of 105, predicted the FOMC would lower the interest rate by a quarter point for a third time in a row on December 10, taking it to 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market pricing. Twenty-one expected no change. "The general sense is the labor market still looks relatively weak and that's one of the key reasons why we think the FOMC will continue to deliver that December cut. But the risk to December will be potentially data dispelling that sense of weakness," said Abigail Watt, U.S. economist at UBS. A possible government reopening after the Senate approved a temporary funding bill on Monday could clear some of the data fog before that meeting. "We're already seeing some kind of disagreement over the extent to which labor market concerns are dominating the inflation dynamic...the tension in the mandate is probably going to worsen as we go into next year. There's potential we see the economy improving and inflation pressures continuing to rise," added Watt. The Personal Consumption Expenditures index - the Fed's preferred inflation measure - has remained above its 2% target for more than four years, the longest streak since 1995. The poll showed it would average above 2% through 2027. "It could impact Fed credibility that we've had inflation above target for a long period of time. It's one of those factors people may not notice, may not pay attention to, and then they do all at once... We will take a little bit more caution around viewing tariff inflation purely as temporary," said Josh Hirt, senior economist at Vanguard. Nearly half of economists polled still expect the rate to decrease to 3.25%-3.50% next quarter, also the median view. There was no clear majority on where the fed funds rate would be by end-2026. Nearly 70% of respondents to a separate question, 36 of 52, said job growth has remained roughly the same since the shutdown started, despite private data showing U.S. firms were shedding jobs recently. While 16 said hiring was worse, none said it had improved. The unemployment rate, last reported at 4.3% in August, was expected to remain unchanged this quarter and increase slightly to average 4.5% next year, poll medians showed. "The labor market is cooling, yes, but it's not collapsing by any means," said Stephen Juneau, U.S. economist at Bank of America Securities. "We're still seeing low hiring, but we're not seeing a ton of firing either." "December may not be a done deal unless Powell sees more obvious signs downside risks to the labor market are truly materializing." The U.S. economy, which grew 3.8% in the second quarter and was forecast to have expanded 2.9% last quarter, will slow to 1.0% this quarter, according to poll medians. Growth is then forecast to average roughly 1.8%, which Fed officials currently see as the non-inflationary rate, each year through 2027. (Other stories from the Reuters global economic poll) https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-cut-rates-again-december-weakening-job-market-say-most-economists-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 18:42

OTTAWA, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Ahead of the Bank of Canada's rates decision on October 29, Governing Council decided to look through "choppy" annual inflation data and consider underlying indicators, minutes of the bank's meeting released on Wednesday showed. This approach would help provide signals about the trend of total inflation, they concluded. Sign up here. The central bank trimmed its key policy rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% last month and signaled this could be its final rate cut for some time, given monetary policy could only help a stuttering economy to a certain extent. The minutes showed the rate-setting team acknowledged the year-over-year change in inflation would be choppy due to sales tax breaks doled out by the government last year and the continuing effects of the removal of a consumer carbon tax. "Members would be looking through this choppiness and watching indicators of underlying inflation for signals about the trend of total inflation," the minutes said. Canada's annual inflation rate increased to 2.4% in September, mainly led by a smaller decline in gasoline prices on a yearly basis. The BoC expects that inflation over the next two years is likely to be around 2%, or at the middle point of its 1% to 3% target range. Rates are already at the lower end of its neutral range, which the bank considers to be somewhat stimulative for the economy. "Governing Council members also agreed that monetary policy was likely close to the limits of what it could do to support the economy in the current circumstances," the summary said. Governor Tiff Macklem said after the rates announcement decision that he would be ready to respond if the economy weakened materially. The likelihood of inflation stabilizing was one of the main factors the bank considered, even though there was some difference on the timing of the cut. With continued excess supply, labor market weakness, tepid growth expected in the second half of the year and inflation projected to stay close to the target, the arguments for cutting the policy rate in October were considered more salient, the minutes said. Governors were also concerned that with U.S. tariffs and trade uncertainty continuing to plague business decisions, weakness in the labor market could persist and broaden. They did though acknowledge that with immigration curbs slowing down the rate of growth of population, fewer jobs would be needed to maintain current employment levels. (This story has been refiled to fix the grammar in the headline and paragraph 1) https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/bank-canada-governors-agreed-look-through-choppy-inflation-minutes-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 18:29

HOUSTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The cost of doing business in Argentina remains challenging despite promising geology and progress by the government of President Javier Milei to foster the oil economy, Chevron's Vice Chairman Mark Nelson said on Wednesday. "Clearly the geology is good," he said at a question and answer session during the company's investor day presentation in New York City. Sign up here. Chevron has exploration and development interests in the Vaca Muerta formation in southern Neuquen province, where estimated ultimate recovery per well is 50% higher than the average seen in the prolific Permian basin in Texas. Crude produced from the area competes with Arab Light crude and is highly desirable after blending, Nelson said. Still, costs to drill a well there are currently 35% higher than what the company is seeing in the Permian. "Our hopes would be that capital controls would be reduced, that some of the tax burden, and workforce flexibility would be increased, so taxes coming down, and the ability to manage people," Nelson said. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/chevron-says-argentina-costs-still-challenging-despite-reform-progress-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 16:40

Fed aims for risk-tailored access to payment services by 4Q 2026 Waller emphasizes rapid progress and innovation at the Fed Fed to seek industry and public comments on new payment accounts Nov 12 (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve aims to get a new set of streamlined payment accounts that would allow risk-tailored access to Fed payment services operational by the fourth quarter of next year, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said on Wednesday. "We're moving at startup speed on this: we're not screwing around like federal regulators," Waller said as he announced the accelerated timeline for the creation of the new accounts. "I try to live the mantra...we are a new Fed: we are moving, we are doing things, we have to act." Sign up here. Waller, who chairs the Fed's internal payments committee, first detailed last month how these "skinny" accounts might work, granting firms access to the Fed's payments infrastructure without accompanying services and backstops. On Wednesday he told a Philadelphia Fed fintech conference that the Fed would "very quickly" be putting out a "request for information" to collect industry and public comments on the plan before issuing a formal rules proposal and finalizing what he envisions to be a tiered approach to payment account access. Meanwhile, he said, the Fed has already begun working on developing the technology to handle the accounts. Eligibility for "master accounts" - a terminology Waller said the Fed will retire in favor of the more generic "payment accounts" - will not change under the new system, he said on Wednesday. "The goal here, assuming nothing goes haywire, is to have these up and operationalized by the fourth quarter of 2026," Waller said. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/feds-waller-streamlined-payment-accounts-be-operational-by-4q-2026-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 15:06

MEXICO CITY/BUENOS AIRES, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Mexican energy producer Vista (VISTAA.MX) , opens new tab is set to invest more than $4.5 billion in the vast Vaca Muerta shale formation in Argentina in a bid to boost production, the firm said on Wednesday. Vista expects its output to climb to more than 200,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) by 2030, from an expected 114,000 boe/d this year, it said in a presentation to investors. Sign up here. Mexico City-listed shares in the company were up nearly 2% after opening, to 950 pesos ($51.72) apiece. Vista is Argentina's second-largest shale producer, and has invested heavily in Vaca Muerta. The firm is planning to double its export revenues in the next three years, it said, projecting to bring in $8 billion over the period. Core earnings, or earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA), was expected to climb 75% from 2025 to 2028, reaching $2.8 billion, Vista added. ($1 = 18.3694 Mexican pesos) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/mexicos-vista-invest-45-billion-argentinas-vaca-muerta-shale-formation-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 15:05

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Brazil's central bank is preparing to advance tighter regulation of the financial system to curb a rise in cyberattacks, the bank's supervision director, Ailton Aquino, said on Wednesday. This year, 68 incidents have been reported through October, including 37 cases of fraud, he said at a press conference in Sao Paulo. Sign up here. That represents the highest number since the central bank began tracking such data in 2018 and is already above the 59 cases recorded in all of last year, according to the bank's Financial Stability Report released earlier in the day. Aquino cited the need for stronger oversight of third-party services and Application Programming Interfaces (APIs), which act as bridges allowing different software systems to communicate securely and automatically with each other. He said the central bank was finalizing rules for direct connections to the financial system's network and expected to release them soon. "The agenda remains strong," Aquino said. In September, the central bank issued new rules to strengthen the security of the country's financial system, and earlier this week it regulated the crypto assets market to help prevent money laundering and fraud. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazils-central-bank-vows-tougher-rules-after-surge-financial-system-2025-11-12/