2025-01-30 21:46

Jan 31 (Reuters) - A look at the day ahead in Asian markets. A tumultuous week rounds off with investors in Asia taking their cue from more U.S. 'Big Tech' earnings, digesting Fed Chair Jerome Powell's guidance from earlier in the week, but bracing for U.S. tariff-related volatility. The global macro backdrop is broadly supportive, after the European Central Bank's rate cut and indication of more to come, the Bank of Canada's cut earlier this week, and expectations the Bank of England will ease next week. But just before the Wall Street close on Thursday President Donald Trump said the U.S. could slap 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada. Trump had said Saturday would be tariff decision day - could China be targeted too? On the corporate front, Apple shares were under pressure in volatile after-hours trading on Thursday after the company announced its latest results. The direction they eventually take could give Asian markets a cue on Friday. It's been a mixed bag for the 'Magnificent 7' this week. Nvidia shares got hammered on Monday by the DeepSeek news, shares in Microsoft fell sharply on Thursday after the firm's results, while shares in Tesla and Meta rose in the wake of their earnings releases. Another plank of the U.S. tech story took an Asian twist on Thursday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Japan's Softbank is in talks to invest $40 billion in OpenAI, more than had previously been mooted. Markets in China are closed on Friday for the Chinese New Year holidays, and markets in South Korea and Taiwan are closed too. Liquidity across Asia will be lighter than normal. Japanese markets will be more active though. After the Bank of Japan last week raised rates to a 17-year high of 0.5% and upped its inflation forecast, domestic assets will be sensitive to the latest retail sales, industrial production, unemployment and Tokyo inflation data on Friday. In general, the mood music across markets is pretty upbeat, especially bearing in mind how discordant it was after the Deepseek-fueled turmoil on Monday. The S&P 500 is only down 0.5% on the week and the Nasdaq is off 1.3% - hardly disastrous moves given the nervousness on Monday that a much more severe correction was on the cards. Indeed, the equal-weighted Nasdaq is in the green. The global picture is even brighter. The MSCI World index goes into Friday flat on the week and hovering around its all-time high, the MSCI Asia ex-Japan is also steady, while euro and UK stocks are roaring to record highs. Monday's turmoil and rebound is reminiscent of the yen volatility shock from last August - fears of a yen carry trade unwind slammed stock markets on Aug. 5, yet they recovered within days. Many haven't looked back since. Here are key developments that could provide more direction to markets on Friday: - Japan retail sales, industrial production, Tokyo CPI - Australia producer price inflation (Q4) - Thailand trade (December) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/global-markets-view-asia-2025-01-30/

2025-01-30 21:00

UPS down after lower-than-expected 2025 revenue forecast Microsoft forecast disappoints Indexes: Dow up 0.4%, S&P 500 up 0.5%, Nasdaq up 0.3% NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks ended a volatile session higher on Thursday as investors digested a stack of key earnings reports, with upbeat comments from Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab helping to offset a disappointing forecast from Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab. Indexes briefly lost ground late in the session after U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States will put a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada, two of the U.S.'s top trading partners. He said he would likely decide by the end of the day whether to put a 25% tariff on imports of Mexican and Canadian oil that would take effect on Feb. 1. Worries about Trump's possible tariffs and their impact on the U.S. economy and inflation have kept investors on edge. "Until we understand what tariff policies, what fiscal policies are going to go into play, it's going to be very difficult for the market to find a trajectory that is sustainable," said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president, advisor for Wealthspire Advisors in Westport, Connecticut. "We're probably going to see increased volatility, but it'll be range-bound," he said. All of the S&P 500 sectors rose except for technology (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab on Thursday, with communication services (.SPLRCL) , opens new tab and financials (.SPSY) , opens new tab registering record closing highs. Tesla shares gained 2.9% and were among the biggest boosts to the S&P 500. CEO Elon Musk vowed to launch long-awaited cheaper models in the first half of 2025 and start testing an autonomous ride-hailing service in June. The comments overshadowed its quarterly results that fell short of expectations. Shares of Microsoft (MSFT.O) , opens new tab dropped 6.2% after the company forecast disappointing growth in its cloud computing business. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 168.61 points, or 0.38%, to 44,882.13, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 31.86 points, or 0.53%, to 6,071.17, and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab added 49.43 points, or 0.25%, at 19,681.75. Also helping the S&P 500 was Meta (META.O) , opens new tab, whose shares gained 1.6% after the company beat Wall Street's fourth-quarter revenue estimates but said current-quarter sales may not meet forecasts. IBM (IBM.N) , opens new tab shares jumped 13% in its biggest daily percentage gain since 1999 after the company surpassed fourth-quarter profit expectations. Investors also took in comments from the CEOs of Meta and Microsoft defending their heavy investments in artificial intelligence, days after Chinese startup DeepSeek unveiled a breakthrough in cheap AI models that rattled Wall Street and triggered a sell-off in AI-linked stocks. Friday brings the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index report for December. The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates steady and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said inflation and jobs data would determine when another easing would come. So far this reporting period, more than 70% of S&P 500 company earnings reports on the final quarter of 2024 have beaten analysts' expectations, LSEG data showed. Among other outlooks, United Parcel Service (UPS.N) , opens new tab forecast 2025 revenue below expectations. Its shares fell 14.1% and weighed on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (.DJT) , opens new tab. After the closing bell, Apple (AAPL.O) , opens new tab shares fell about 1%. The company beat analysts' quarterly profit estimates on Thursday, but posted weak iPhone sales and China revenue for the holiday quarter. Advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 4.1-to-1 ratio on the NYSE. There were 254 new highs and 52 new lows on the NYSE. On the Nasdaq, 2,938 stocks rose and 1,470 fell as advancing issues outnumbered decliners by a 2-to-1 ratio. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 13.79 billion shares, compared with the 15.4 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/megacap-results-push-us-stock-futures-higher-after-fed-holds-rates-steady-2025-01-30/

2025-01-30 20:10

US futures rise after Apple's positive sales forecast Dollar edges higher, gold hits record on tariff worries US inflation data due later in the session LONDON/SINGAPORE, Jan 31 (Reuters) - Global stocks steadied on Friday after a volatile week due to the emergence of a low-cost Chinese artificial intelligence model, while investors braced for the threat of U.S. tariffs on Canada and Mexico as early as Saturday. Relatively strong sales forecasts from Apple overnight helped support market sentiment. European stocks (.STOXX) , opens new tab were up 0.4% in early trading, while Wall Street futures were up between 0.4 and 0.7%. , Technology stocks across the globe stumbled badly on Monday as investors reckoned with Chinese company DeepSeek's AI model, with shares of high-profile tech names such as Nvidia , and Oracle plunging. Tech stocks have since recouped some of their losses, with the CEOs of Microsoft and Meta defending their massive spending to stay competitive in the AI field. The looming threat from U.S. President Donald Trump of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada is also firmly in investors' sights and has helped lift the dollar, push gold prices to a record high and pressured the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar. , "There is big market complacency in terms of the manner that the market could digest the tariffs," said Michael Nizard, multi-asset chief investment officer at Edmond de Rothschild. Markets are underpricing the potential risks of Trump's tariffs and Europe could well be next in his sights, he added. U.S. inflation data due later on Friday will also be scrutinised for clues as to the future path for interest rates, after the Federal Reserve held rates steady on Wednesday. Data on Thursday showed U.S. economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter, but remained robust enough for investors to expect the Fed to lower rates only gradually this year. The U.S. dollar index was last up 0.1% on the day and was on track for a 0.7% weekly gain. The European Central Bank cut interest rates on Thursday as expected, while the market is betting the Bank of England will follow suit next week. The euro and sterling were both down slightly on Friday. , In Japan, the yen was last at 154.71 per dollar. Expectations of further rate increases from the BOJ this year have recently boosted the yen. Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino said on Thursday the BOJ will continue to raise rates if the economy and prices move in line with the central bank's forecasts. In commodities, gold rose to hit a record $2,800.99 and was last flat on the day. Brent crude futures slipped 0.3% to $76.7 a barrel. U.S. crude futures dipped 0.2% to $72.62 a barrel. Stock markets in mainland China, Hong Kong and Taiwan remained closed for the Lunar New Year. The MSCI broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab slipped 0.1%, but was still on course for about a 1% gain this month. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/global-markets-wrapup-1-2025-01-30/

2025-01-30 19:29

NEW YORK, Jan 30 (Reuters) - The relentless coffee price rally continued on Thursday as arabica futures on the ICE exchange hit a new record approaching $4 per lb on extremely tight supplies and fears over the outlook for the coming crop. Arabica coffee futures in New York , used as a benchmark to price deals around the world, hit an all-time high of $3.7685 per lb earlier in the day, up more than 15% already this year. They closed up 1.9% at $3.734 per lb. Dealers said exchange data shows that top roasters such as Nestle (NESN.S) , opens new tab and JDE Peet's (JDEP.AS) , opens new tab are under-bought and still have much buying to do while speculators remain bullish on coffee. Supplies remain extremely tight in Brazil after severe drought last year dented forecasts for the coming crop. Brazil produces nearly half the world's arabica. "The real story is that supply has fallen much faster than demand. It really is that simple," said Trishul Mandana, managing director for Volcafe, one of the world's largest coffee traders. "The tightness in Brazil and the current differentials are telling us the real story of the 24/25 crop - and which will no doubt quickly lead to the disappearance of certs (arabica-certified stocks at ICE). And things could get messy rather quickly," Mandana added. Certified arabica stocks started to diminish quickly in recent days, falling nearly 100,000 bags to around 900,000 bags. There has been some hope that the situation in Brazil for the new crop might not be as bad as previously feared, thanks to rains over the past few months, but dealers said the latest weather forecasts have made people nervous again. "Below-average rainfall in some (Brazilian) regions has once again fuelled fears," trader Icona Cafe said in a report, citing forecasts for longer periods of dry weather and rising temperatures in key coffee regions over the next few weeks. Supplies are also tight in robusta coffee, which is to some extent fungible with arabica even though it is used generally to make instant coffee rather than roast and ground blends. Robusta coffee rose 2.2% at $5,734 a ton a metric ton, just shy of an all-time high for the contract. Farmers in Vietnam, the world's top robusta producer, are holding back sales in anticipation of further price gains while a sharp slowdown in trade and shipping is expected at the end of January because of Lunar New Year celebrations. In other soft commodities, New York cocoa futures fell 4.6% to $11,207 a ton while London cocoa lost 3.5% to 8,817 pounds per ton. Raw sugar was little changed at 19.47 cents per lb, while white sugar was stable at $522.70 a ton. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/coffees-record-highs-continue-it-approaches-4-per-lb-2025-01-30/

2025-01-30 19:02

Critics argue sustainability of Brazil's fiscal results Treasury Secretary Ceron acknowledges economic challenges Strong tax revenue and dividends aided fiscal performance BRASILIA, Jan 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's central government met its 2024 primary budget target, Treasury data released on Thursday showed, defying more pessimistic market forecasts with the support of one-time revenues and strong dividends that may not recur. The primary budget deficit of 43 billion reais ($7.31 billion) was equivalent to 0.36% of gross domestic product. However, the deficit stood at 0.09% of GDP, excluding 32 billion reais in expenditures not considered by law in the goal calculation, such as costs related to unprecedented flooding in the state of Rio Grande do Sul. As a result, President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's leftist administration achieved its target of a zero primary deficit, with a 0.25% tolerance margin, meaning the maximum shortfall was 28.8 billion reais. "The results are significant in terms of fiscal recovery, there's no way of denying that," said Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron. He acknowledged, however, that given the challenges of the economic scenario, including global uncertainties, this might require "greater determination on our part." Ceron stressed that the government is monitoring the need for additional fiscal measures to ensure this year's target is met and will propose them if necessary. At the beginning of 2024, economists surveyed weekly by the central bank had forecast a primary deficit of 0.8% of GDP, but they revised their estimate to a 0.5% deficit in the year's final poll. The primary surplus was 24 billion reais in December. Fiscal performance was supported by strong real growth in tax revenues, helped by collections stemming from changes to investment fund and offshore taxation, which generated stronger revenue exclusively last year. Larger dividend payments from state-owned companies and the early payment of some 2024 expenses in 2023, including part of the government's heavy court-ordered payments bill, also contributed. Many critics argue that the result is not sustainable and that challenges remain in meeting the 2025 target, which again calls for a zero primary deficit with the same 0.25% tolerance margin. Despite strong GDP growth, which Lula said on Thursday may have reached 3.7% last year, the government was unable to exit deficit territory. While net revenues rose by 8.9% in real terms in 2024, expenditures declined by 0.7%, compared with the previous year when they had been affected by the early payment of court-ordered payments. According to Ceron, without this effect, expenditures would have grown by around 3.5% in real terms in 2024. The increase in mandatory spending, including social benefits, pension payments and public salaries, is considered a key vulnerability in public finances, driving pressure on the growing debt of Latin America's largest economy. The government claims it made a strong fiscal adjustment after recording a deficit equivalent to 2.09% of GDP in 2023. ($1 = 5.8814 reais) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/brazil-meets-2024-primary-budget-target-critics-warn-challenges-2025-01-30/

2025-01-30 18:55

One of largest privately-held Anadarko basin producers Sale process formally kicked off earlier this month Record breaking energy sector consolidation set to continue Deal may benefit from focus shifting away from Permian basin Jan 30 (Reuters) - Private equity firm NGP Energy Capital Management is exploring a sale of natural gas producer Camino Natural Resources, which may achieve a valuation of around $2 billion including debt, sources familiar with the matter said on Thursday. Among the largest remaining private producers in the Anadarko basin of Oklahoma, Camino covers around 135,000 net acres. Owner NGP is working with investment bankers at RBC Capital Markets on an auction of Camino's assets that formally began earlier this month, the sources said. The sources cautioned that a sale is not guaranteed and NGP could retain ownership of Camino. They requested anonymity as the talks are confidential. NGP and Camino did not respond to comment requests. RBC declined comment. A record-breaking streak of energy industry consolidation is expected to continue into this year, albeit at a slower clip as some of the largest privately-owned targets have been acquired. The focus of potential buyers is also expected to shift from the Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico towards other energy plays, as the intense competition of recent years has driven up prices for acreage in the top U.S. oilfield. Among basins benefiting from the switch is the Anadarko, a maturing play where oil and gas drilling began over a century ago. The area's attractiveness waned during the late-2010s following a flurry of bad bets at the height of the shale wildcatting boom. Its image has recovered in recent years, aided by more sober approaches by companies that specialize in developing mature plays, including using more efficient drilling techniques that have helped lower production costs. Dealmaking has picked up as a result. On Monday, natural gas producer Diversified Energy (DEC.N) , opens new tab announced a $1.3 billion purchase of Anadarko and Permian assets from privately owned Maverick Natural Resources. For 2025, Camino's core earnings are expected to be about $700 million, with output to average around 81,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, of which around half is natural gas, the sources said. This weighting may draw bidders seeking exposure to natural gas, as expectations mount of a surge in demand from power generation to feed data centers. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/buyout-firm-ngp-seeks-2-billion-sale-gas-producer-camino-sources-say-2025-01-30/