2025-11-12 06:50
IEA's current policies scenario shows no oil demand peak before 2050 LNG supply to grow 50% by 2030 US has criticized the IEA for clean energy focus IEA says target to limit temperature rise at 1.5C out of reach LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Global oil and gas demand could grow until 2050, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday, departing from its previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels and predicting that the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals. The IEA, the West's energy security watchdog, has been under pressure from the U.S. for a shift in recent years toward a focus on clean energy policies as President Donald Trump called on American companies to further expand oil and gas production. Sign up here. Under the Joe Biden administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade and said no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target. Trump's Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called the IEA’s demand peak projections “nonsensical”. The IEA is funded by member countries, with the U.S. being the largest contributor. Its analysis and data underpin energy policies of governments and companies around the world. EXISTING POLICIES, NOT CLIMATE GOAL ASPIRATIONS In its annual World Energy Outlook published on Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up around 13% from 2024 consumption. It predicted that global energy demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035 - a 15% increase from present levels. The current policies scenario takes into account existing government policies and not aspirations to achieve climate goals. The IEA last used the "current policies scenario" for its predictions in 2019 and switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020. This year's outlook ditched the pledges scenario. The IEA said it had planned to assess new country climate targets covering 2031-2035 but not enough countries had submitted these plans to produce a meaningful picture. In the IEA's stated policies scenario, which considers policies that have been put forward but not necessarily adopted, oil demand peaks around 2030. The IEA says its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions and are not forecasts. LNG CAPACITY TO SOAR Final investment decisions for new liquefied natural gas projects have surged in 2025, the report noted. Operations for about 300 billion cubic metres of new annual LNG export capacity will start by 2030, marking a 50% increase in available supply. Under the current policies scenario, the global LNG market increases from around 560 bcm in 2024 to 880 bcm in 2035 and to 1,020 bcm in 2050, driven by rising power sector demand fuelled by data centre and AI growth. Global investment in data centres is expected to reach $580 billion in 2025, the report said, noting that if achieved this would surpass the $540 billion a year spent globally on oil supply. GLOBAL TEMPERATURES RISE TO EXCEED 1.5 DEGREES CELSIUS The report also includes a net zero scenario describing a pathway to reduce global energy emissions to net zero by 2050. More than 190 countries pledged at the Paris climate talks in 2015 to try to keep the world from warming more than 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit). But the report shows the world surpassing 1.5 C of warming in all scenarios, only declining again under the net zero scenario if technology to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is deployed. https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/boards-policy-regulation/world-oil-gas-demand-could-grow-until-2050-iea-says-2025-11-12/
2025-11-12 06:46
FRANKFURT, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Bayer on Wednesday said it expected higher one-off burdens in 2025 from provisions for litigations and for buying out executives in its ongoing restructuring programme. In a statement, the German maker of drugs, seeds and crop chemicals said it now expects special items to drag earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) to between 3.5 billion euros ($4.08 billion) and 4 billion euros, worse than a previous forecast range of 2.5 billion-3.5 billion. Sign up here. It also reported that third-quarter adjusted EBITDA rose 20.8%, citing gains at the Crop Science division and reconciliation effects in accounting. Quarterly EBITDA, adjusted for special items, came in at 1.51 billion euros ($1.76 billion), above the 1.28 billion euros expected on average by analysts according to a poll posted on the company's website. ($1 = 0.8575 euros) https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/bayers-third-quarter-adjusted-profit-beats-market-view-2025-11-12/
2025-11-12 06:42
OPEC report says oil supply will match demand in 2026 IEA sees oil, natural gas demand growing through 2050 US House expected to vote to end government shutdown HOUSTON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Oil prices fell more than $2 a barrel on Wednesday, weighed down by an OPEC report saying global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit. Brent crude futures settled at $62.71 a barrel, down $2.45, or 3.76% after gaining 1.7% on Tuesday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude finished at $58.49 a barrel, down $2.55, or 4.18%, after climbing 1.5% in the previous session. Sign up here. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries noted that world oil supply would match demand next year due to the wider OPEC+ group's production increases. Previously, it had projected a supply deficit in 2026. "The prospect that the market is in balance is definitely what drove down prices," said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. "The market wants to believe it's balanced. I think the market took OPEC more seriously than IEA." The International Energy Agency forecast in its annual World Energy Outlook that oil and gas demand could continue to grow until 2050. That was a departure from the IEA's previous expectation that global oil demand would peak this decade, as the international body moved away from a forecasting method based on climate pledges. John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital, said the OPEC outlook comes as some crude sellers cannot find buyers. "There are cargoes going begging," Kilduff said. "The very front of the market is forming a new price curve. There's just a general sense of weakness in the U.S. economy." Analysts have previously highlighted that crude oversupply is curbing price gains. OPEC+ agreed this month to a pause in increasing its output in the first quarter of next year, after having unwound its cuts to production since August this year. US GOVERNMENT REOPENING The reopening of the U.S. government could boost consumer confidence and economic activity, spurring demand for crude oil, IG analyst Tony Sycamore wrote in a note. The U.S. Republican-controlled House of Representatives is set to vote later on Wednesday on a bill, already signed off by the Senate, that would restore funding to government agencies through January 30. The U.S. Energy Information Administration will release its outlook on Thursday. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-little-changed-markets-eye-us-government-reopening-2025-11-12/
2025-11-12 06:28
Zelenskiy seeks ouster of ministers amid $100 million procurement scheme He calls graft in Russian-hit energy sector 'absolutely unacceptable' Probe by anti-corruption authorities involves former associate KYIV, Nov 12 (Reuters) - President Volodymyr Zelenskiy called for the dismissal of two cabinet ministers on Wednesday amid a probe into an alleged $100 million corruption scheme involving a former associate that has fuelled fresh public anger at Kyiv's wartime government. Anti-corruption authorities said this week they had detained five people and identified two others still at large, suspected of involvement in the alleged plot to control procurement at nuclear agency Energoatom and other state enterprises. Sign up here. Ukraine's biggest wartime graft scandal comes as Kyiv's outmanned and underequipped troops are struggling to fend off grinding Russian advances on the battlefield. Zelenskiy, whose former business associate from his comedy career is among the suspects, said in a video address that corruption in the energy sector - weakened by regular Russian air strikes on infrastructure - was "absolutely unacceptable". Shortly after his remarks, Prime Minister Yulia Svyrydenko submitted a request for parliament to dismiss Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk and Justice Minister German Galushchenko, Hrynchuk's predecessor in the post. Galushchenko has not been identified as one of the seven suspects announced this week, but a former advisor of Galushchenko's has been. He has denied wrongdoing. Galushchenko's voice was among those heard in a recorded conversation with some of the suspects in the case that was released by the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine, according to a source familiar with the matter. The minister did not respond to a Reuters request for additional comment. Hrynchuk said earlier said she had submitted her resignation. She has denied any wrongdoing. Svyrydenko, in a post issued later on Telegram, said her government had taken measures to remove other Energoatom officials, including a vice-president, the finance and legal director and a senior procurement official. ENERGY SECTOR ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE The probe by anti-corruption body NABU, details of which have been incrementally released in sleekly produced videos featuring the lead detective, is the latest revelation of alleged graft that has plagued Ukraine's wartime government. Showing progress in fighting corruption is central to Kyiv's bid for membership in the European Union, which officials consider key to escaping Moscow's influence. European Union foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas, speaking at a G7 meeting in Canada, told Reuters the scandal was "extremely unfortunate". She said Ukrainian authorities were "acting very forcefully." Accusations of kickbacks in the energy sector are particularly sensitive among Ukrainians, who are facing daily power outages ahead of winter as a result of massive Russian attacks on infrastructure. It could also dampen enthusiasm among donors who have provided critical assistance to Ukraine's hobbled energy sector. Speaking on local television, lawmaker Serhiy Nahorniak, a member of parliament's energy committee, said he had already been contacted by donors refusing to provide a transformer for Ukraine's battered Sumy region. "Having read the news, they said, 'We think you can afford more than one transformer,'" he told the Kyiv24 channel, without specifying who the donors were. ANTI-CORRUPTION AGENCIES STEP UP PRESSURE Earlier this year, Zelenskiy tried to limit the powers of Ukraine's anti-corruption authorities, but rowed back on those changes after rare street protests and an outcry from European partners. Political opponents accused him of trying to scuttle the activities of corruption-fighting bodies to protect his associates, which Zelenskiy strongly denies. One of the seven suspects identified by prosecutors is Timur Mindich. He is a co-owner of the influential Kvartal 95 television studio, which produced the popular sitcom that brought Zelenskiy to fame as a comedian before he launched his political career by running for president in 2019. Mindich did not immediately respond to a request for comment sent to Kvartal 95. In a statement on Wednesday, the company said it had legal ties to Mindich as a co-owner, but that he did not influence its content and the reported allegations involving him were unrelated to the company's activities. Valeriy Pekar, a prominent public intellectual, wrote on Facebook that "a Pandora's Box" was now open that would likely produce more shocking revelations. "The authorities are still underestimating the scale of the problem and are trying to slow it down," he said. "This is a mistake." https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraines-government-suspends-justice-minister-amid-energy-corruption-2025-11-12/
2025-11-12 06:08
MUMBAI, Nov 12 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee slipped on Wednesday, weighed down by dollar demand from local companies alongside modest declines in regional peers, while expectations of central bank intervention on the path to its all-time low capped losses. The rupee closed at 88.63 against the U.S. dollar, down slightly from 88.5675 in the previous session. Sign up here. Continuous dollar demand from local importers, including oil companies, has exerted pressure on the local currency over the last few weeks, traders said. Months of uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade deal have also distorted India’s FX hedging landscape, as expectations that the rupee may weaken further amplified importer hedging and kept exporters hesitant. In the wider region, Asian currencies mostly fell between 0.1% to 0.5%, while the dollar index nudged higher following a retreat triggered by signs of weakness in U.S. labour market data in the previous session. A U.S. legislature vote to reopen the country's government later in the day is in focus. If approved, that could lead to the release of key data points expected to influence the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate cut trajectory. "The jobs data will be key to whether the Fed can continue to cut and is an important element of our view that the dollar can weaken notably as we approach the end of the year," analysts at MUFG said in a note. An uptick in wagers on a rate cut next month alongside optimism over the reopening of the U.S. government helped boost stocks in Asia, with India's benchmark indexes, the BSE Sensex (.BSESN) , opens new tab and Nifty 50 (.NSEI) , opens new tab each ending xx% higher. Ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and India over a trade pact also remain a focal point for the rupee. Analysts say a breakthrough could help lift the currency substantially and spark foreign portfolio inflows into local stocks. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-looks-build-modest-momentum-trade-deal-hopes-fed-rate-cut-bets-2025-11-12/
2025-11-12 06:04
LITTLETON, Colorado, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Global power generation capacity is on track to expand by just over 25% once projects that are currently under construction are completed and steer power onto generation systems and electricity grids. Around 1,450 gigawatts (GW) of new power capacity is currently under construction globally, which when complete will lift the world's power capacity footprint from 8,000 GW to nearly 9,500 GW, data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM) shows. Sign up here. Two-thirds of current projects are from clean energy sources such as solar and wind farms, while coal-fired plants make up the majority of the fossil fuel capacity pipeline. Regionally, Asia accounts for a vast majority of nearly all planned capacity additions, while the Americas are the location for the second-largest amount of capacity construction currently underway. Below is a breakdown of the power pipeline currently being built in terms of power source and geography, and how the final power generation mix will be impacted once new projects come online. CLEAN BREAK Of the roughly 950 GW of clean power capacity being built, solar farms account for the largest share, with around 345 GW of new solar capacity currently under construction. Hydropower capacity is the next largest clean power technology being built, with around 267 GW under construction, followed by wind farms with around 251 GW. In addition, around 82 GW of new nuclear, 7.5 GW of new bioenergy and 1.8 GW of new geothermal capacity is also in the construction phase. Currently, clean power sources account for around 46% of total power capacity in operation, but following the completion of the clean-heavy construction pipeline, clean power sources will account for 49% total power capacity, GEM data shows. FOSSIL FUEL MOMENTUM While clean power sources account for 66% of the power capacity under construction, a third of the global power pipeline being built will be powered by fossil fuels. Indeed, coal-fired power is the second-largest generation source globally being built behind solar, with around 275 GW currently under construction. An additional 215 GW of gas-fired power capacity is also being built, which will result in total fossil fuel generation capacity climbing from around 4,326 GW currently to around 4,815 GW when projects are complete. The fossil fuel share of global generation capacity - which is currently around 54% - will decline to 51% after all clean and fossil fuel capacity construction is complete. ASIA-DRIVEN Asian nations are the main builders of new power capacity, with roughly 84% of all new power projects currently under construction located in the region. Asia is home to around 83% of all clean energy projects and 85% of all fossil fuel projects being built, which is a testament to the scale of China's mammoth energy needs and its manufacturing heft in energy components. When it comes to coal-fired power capacity, Asia's share jumps to 99% of the global pipeline, while 68% of all new gas-fired capacity being built is also in Asia. Once projects that are currently under construction are complete, Asia's share of global power capacity will rise from around 53% currently to 58%, GEM data shows. Around 65% of all new power capacity in Asia will be powered by clean energy, and when complete will lift Asia's power capacity mix from around 37% clean, 63% fossil fuels currently to 44% clean, 56% fossil fuels. The Americas, which currently account for 23% of power capacity in operation, will see its share decline to 21% when projects are complete. The Americas power capacity mix, which is currently split fairly evenly between clean and fossil fuel sources, will shift to 51% clean, 49% fossil fuels once current construction work is finished. Europe's share of global power capacity will fall from 19% to 17% once all global construction work is complete, while the continent's clean share of total power capacity will remain largely flat at around 68%. Africa and Oceania will continue to have a roughly 4% share of global power generation capacity after current work is complete. Africa's clean-fossil fuel capacity breakdown will shift from 28% clean, 72% fossil fuels currently to 33% clean, 67% fossil fuels once construction is complete. Oceania's generation mix will move from a fairly even clean-fossil fuel mix currently to 54% clean, 46% fossil fuels mix once current construction projects are wrapped up. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), your essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis of everything from swap rates to soybeans. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X , opens new tab. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gigawatt-growth-how-global-power-pipeline-is-taking-shape-2025-11-12/
