2025-11-12 05:02

Importer hedging up over 30% on average in 2025, outpacing 11% rise in exporter activity Exporters face uncertainty in U.S. shipment volumes and payment timing RBI has been intervening routinely to support rupee over last two months MUMBAI, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Months of uncertainty over a U.S.-India trade deal have distorted India’s FX hedging landscape as expectations that the rupee may weaken further have amplified importer hedging while exporters hesitate, leaving the central bank to shoulder the resulting pressure on the currency. Hefty U.S. tariffs on Indian goods went into effect in August and despite multiple rounds of talks, a deal has proven elusive. Both New Delhi and Washington, though, have said an agreement is within sight. Sign up here. The delay has created a gulf in hedging activity that has hurt the rupee. Importer dollar hedging averaged about $43 billion a month between January and October, up 32% from its 2020–24 average, while exporter hedging has risen only 11% to $25 billion, per data from the Clearing Corporation of India. The skew has thinned natural dollar supply and coincided with about $17 billion in equity outflows this year, prompting the Reserve Bank of India to intervene to bolster the rupee and offset one-sided dollar demand. "Over recent months, there has been a notable decrease in hedging actions by exporters, while hedging activity by importers has remained robust," said Sameer Karyatt, executive director and head of trading at DBS Bank India. Thanks to consistent intervention, implied rupee volatility remains contained despite the currency hovering near its all-time low of 88.80 per dollar. Since the level was first hit in September, the RBI has firmly defended it, anchoring expectations and ensuring that the strain on the currency does not spill over into the broader market. The central bank's heightened efforts to support the rupee have shown up in a $10 billion decline in foreign exchange reserves over the past month, while it has added to its short dollar forward positions for the first time in six months. Despite this, the rupee, down 3.5% year-to-date, ranks among Asia's weakest currencies in 2025. UNCERTAIN PAYMENTS, RUPEE WEAKNESS EXPECTATIONS Exporters seem reluctant to add hedges, anticipating further rupee weakness and facing uncertainty about the timing of payments from the United States. "The view is that if he (the exporter) hedges now, he would receive only a small forward premium and risk missing out on the full depreciation that seems more or less inevitable in the current situation," said Pankaj Chadha, managing partner at Mumbai-based Jyoti Steel Industries. Exporters remain uncertain about both shipment volumes and the timing of payment receipts, according to Chadha, who also chairs the Engineering Export Promotion Council of India. This lack of clarity makes forward hedging difficult, he added. Some exporters had sought a more favorable exchange rate from the central bank to convert their dollar earnings to rupees, Reuters reported in September, but the RBI is unlikely to agree, a source familiar with the matter said. The RBI did not immediately respond to a request for comment. U.S. tariffs have dented India’s exports to its largest market, with shipments falling to $5.43 billion in September from $6.87 billion in August. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/yawning-gulf-importer-exporter-hedging-heightens-indian-rupees-reliance-rbi-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 03:40

Vietnam aims to finalise trade deal with US amid ongoing negotiations Washington seeks to reduce trade deficit with Vietnam, largest after China and Mexico Talks focus on tariff exemptions for Vietnamese goods, preferential access for US products HANOI, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Vietnam is working to sign a trade agreement with the United States soon, Deputy Prime Minister Bui Thanh Son said on Wednesday, as a new round of negotiations gets underway in Washington. In October, the two countries agreed to finalise a trade deal within weeks that would maintain U.S. tariffs of 20% on its imports of Vietnamese goods, but exempt some unspecified products from the new duty imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in August. Sign up here. Son urged U.S. businesses at a conference in Hanoi to help in bilateral negotiations so that the two parties could "soon sign a fair and balanced trade agreement." Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, Michael DeSombre, told the conference in a recorded statement that the trade deal should rebalance commercial flows between the two countries, reducing the U.S. deficit with Hanoi, which is the largest after China and Mexico. For the first 10 months of the year, Vietnam has recorded a $111 billion trade surplus with the U.S. - pointing to another potential annual record - according to Vietnamese data, which is usually more conservative than U.S. trade figures, currently unavailable because of an ongoing federal government shutdown. TALKS ON EXEMPTION LIST A Vietnamese delegation led by Trade Minister Nguyen Hong Dien is in Washington this week for a new round of talks with U.S. officials to work on finalising the trade agreement, the Vietnamese trade ministry said on its web portal. A person briefed about the talks said negotiations would focus on identifying Vietnamese items that could be exempted from U.S. tariffs, such as coffee, and on the scope of the preferential access to the Vietnamese market that Hanoi has pledged for U.S. products, such as cars and farm goods. The Vietnamese side aimed to finalise the deal ideally after the U.S. Supreme Court decides on the legality of U.S. tariffs imposed by Trump, and possibly by December, the person said, declining to be named because the information was not public. The court ruling is expected anytime before the end of this year and mid-2026. Vietnamese negotiators are keen to mark the signing of a trade deal with a meeting between Trump and Vietnam's top leader To Lam, multiple officials have said. Son urged U.S. businesses at Wednesday's conference to support Vietnam's efforts to set up the high-level meeting. Past attempts have not been successful, according to multiple officials. He also called on U.S. businesses to encourage Washington to recognise Vietnam as a market economy and lift its restrictions on the export of high-tech products, such as advanced semiconductors. DeSombre said Vietnam could play a role in global supply chains for critical minerals. Vietnam has large resources of rare earths and gallium but has been slow in exploiting them. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vietnam-expects-sign-trade-deal-with-us-soon-deputy-pm-says-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 00:41

European shares hit record highs, US indexes mixed House vote expected to end longest US shutdown US Treasury yields fall on bets for easier Fed policy Yen falls to nine-month lows vs dollar NEW YORK/LONDON, Nov 12 (Reuters) - MSCI's global equities index rose slightly on Wednesday while U.S. Treasury yields fell and Wall Street indexes were mixed while investors waited for U.S. Congress to end the federal shutdown and provide greater clarity on the health of the U.S. economy. In currencies, the dollar dipped against the euro but gained against the yen, which fell to nine-month lows. U.S. Treasury prices rose in anticipation of Federal Reserve rate cuts after weak data and central banker comments. Sign up here. Investors were awaiting a Wednesday evening vote While investors have been hopeful that a reopening would allow the resumption of data releases, the White House said October jobs and inflation data reports might never be released due to the shutdown. The Dow rose to a record closing high while the S&P 500 barely rose and the Nasdaq fell as investors sold off some highly valued heavyweight technology stocks in favor of value stocks. "People are feeling better about taking a little bit more risk. Money is flowing to some parts of the market that have been underperforming," said Irene Tunkel, chief U.S. equity strategist at BCA Research. In particular, airline stocks helped push the Dow Jones Transportation average (.DJT) , opens new tab up 0.8% on hopes air travel, which has suffered cancellations and delays, would return to normal after the reopening, when crucial airport workers such as air traffic controllers will start getting paid again. BOSTIC ANNOUNCES RETIREMENT On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 326.86 points, or 0.68%, to 48,254.82 for its second record close in a row. The S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 4.31 points, or 0.06%, to 6,850.92 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 61.84 points, or 0.26%, to 23,406.46. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 2.59 points, or 0.26%, to 1,011.78. Earlier, the pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index closed up 0.7%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab ended up close to 0.8% with both hitting record highs, led by banks. The S&P 500 value index (.IVX) , opens new tab rose 0.4%, while its growth counterpart (.IGX) , opens new tab lost 0.2%. U.S. banks, a large part of the value index, were among Wall Street's best performers as investors focused on the prospect of rate cuts and government reopening. "The Fed is cutting rates, so that's probably a positive for banks and since the shutdown is likely over it means that economic activity will limp back to normalcy," said John Praveen, managing director at Paleo Leon in Princeton, New Jersey. After the bond market closure on Tuesday for the Veterans Day holiday, U.S. Treasury prices rallied on Wednesday, driving yields lower as investors bet on further Fed rate cuts after Tuesday's weekly jobs data from ADP , opens new tab, which showed that U.S. private employers shed jobs in the four weeks ending on October 25. Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic said he would retire in late February. Since Bostic had voiced concerns about high inflation and was cautious about rate cuts, BCA's Tunkel said investors may expect a more dovish replacement, since the White House favors lower rates. The U.S. president does not select regional Fed presidents but appointments are approved by the Fed's Board of Governors, which President Donald Trump is trying to reshape. Tunkel also pointed to New York Federal Reserve President John Williams' reiteration that the time is getting closer for a U.S. central bank restart of bond purchases as part of its effort to maintain control over short-term rates. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes fell 4.5 basis points to 4.065%, from 4.11% late on Monday while the 30-year bond yield fell 4.1 basis points to 4.6608%. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, fell 2.3 basis points to 3.568%. In currencies, the U.S. dollar gained against the euro and the yen as traders evaluated what a flood of economic releases will mean for Fed rate policy if the government votes to reopen, as is expected. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.08% to 99.52, with the euro up 0.05% at $1.1586. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.44% to 154.83. The yen's decline to nine-month lows had prompted concern in Tokyo, with Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama she would not deny that negative economic impacts from the weak yen have become more pronounced. Oil prices tumbled more than $2 per barrel on oversupply concerns as OPEC said global oil supply will match demand in 2026, marking a further shift from its earlier projections of a supply deficit. U.S. crude settled down 4.2%, or $2.55 at $58.49 a barrel and Brent settled at $62.71 per barrel, down 3.8%, or $2.45, on the day. Gold prices rose ahead of the House vote on the government reopening in anticipation of economic data that could set the stage for a December rate cut. Spot gold rose 1.74% to $4,198.33 an ounce. U.S. gold futures rose 1.98% to $4,188.10 an ounce. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2025-11-12/

2025-11-12 00:17

Nov 12 (Reuters) - Liontown Resources (LTR.AX) , opens new tab said on Wednesday it had partnered with German digital commodities platform Metalshub to run online auctions for spodumene concentrate from its Kathleen Valley lithium project in Western Australia. Shares in the Australian lithium miner jumped as much as 5.7% to A$1.31 to their highest level since mid-2024 after the announcement, outperforming a 0.2% gain in the broader benchmark S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) , opens new tab. Sign up here. The tie-up is aimed at digitalising and streamlining spot sales, while promoting market-linked pricing as lithium producers and buyers adopt auction formats. The first 10,000 metric tons of digital sale from the project is slated for November 19. Liontown said it plans a series of bidding events through 2026 and beyond on the Metalshub platform. "Establishing a transparent, auditable and liquid price signal is crucial to a sustainable lithium industry," Chief Executive Tony Ottaviano said, adding the process should open competitive access to a wider pool of buyers. Kathleen Valley produced its first concentrate in July 2024 and is powered by about 80% renewable energy, the company said. Liontown has offtake agreements with automakers, including Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab and Ford Motor (F.N) , opens new tab. In August, the Australian government invested A$50 million ($32.49 million) in Liontown to support the ramp-up and transition to underground mining at the Kathleen Valley project. Spodumene concentrate is a feedstock for lithium chemicals used in electric-vehicle batteries, and efforts to standardise auction mechanisms have grown as the sector seeks clearer benchmarks and tighter linkage to market conditions. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/australias-liontown-taps-metalshub-online-kathleen-valley-lithium-auctions-2025-11-12/

2025-11-11 23:49

Miner looking to reduce debt, repair its balance sheet Shares jump as much as 10.8% to more than one-year high POSCO says energy materials a core growth driver alongside steel business MELBOURNE, Nov 12 (Reuters) - Australia's Mineral Resources (MIN.AX) , opens new tab said on Wednesday it would sell a 30% stake in part of its lithium business to South Korea's POSCO (005490.KS) , opens new tab for $765 million to reduce debt, sending its shares to a more than one-year high. MinRes shares gained as much as 10.8% to hit their highest since October 11 last year, then pared gains to end the session up 9.2%, making the miner the top performer on the S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) , opens new tab which ended slightly lower. Sign up here. MinRes is seeking to repair its balance sheet following heavy capital spending on its Onslow Iron haul road project and a collapse in lithium prices that hit earnings. The diversified miner has also been beset by corporate governance concerns surrounding its founder and CEO, Chris Ellison. For POSCO, which already has a joint venture lithium hydroxide project in South Korea with Australian lithium miner Pilbara Minerals (PLS.AX) , opens new tab, the deal marks its first foray into Australian lithium mines, at a time when lithium prices remain low. The deal will create an incorporated joint venture that will hold MinRes' existing 50% ownership in the Wodgina and Mt Marion lithium mines, giving POSCO an indirect 15% interest in each of the projects, MinRes said. MinRes will remain the mines' operator under its existing agreements with the respective partners. The deal validates the quality of MinRes's lithium assets, locks in a premium valuation, strengthens the balance sheet, and secures a downstream Korean link, all while preserving high-margin services income, said RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker in a note. POSCO CEO In Hwa Chan said his company viewed energy materials as a core growth driver alongside its steel business and was committed to securing a stable, cost-competitive supply of the raw materials. POSCO (005490.KS) , opens new tab shares rose as much as 6.6%, set for their biggest daily jump since early July. LITHIUM PRICE FALL HITS HARD In August, prices of hard rock spodumene, the lithium-bearing mineral, rebounded to about $880 per metric ton from a fall to four-year lows near $610 in mid-June, but remain well short of 2022 peaks above $6,000. The price crash pushed Australian miners to mothball operations and, more recently, to consider disposing of assets to rebuild their balance sheets. Reuters reported in August that MinRes had tried to sell stakes in Mt Marion and Wodgina this year, but the process lost steam after prospective buyers from India and Japan balked at the suggested price tag of more than $2 billion. MinRes said proceeds from the POSCO deal would be used to repay external debt, fortify the balance sheet, and position the company for future growth. Under the deal, POSCO will receive spodumene concentrate in proportion to its 30% interest in the joint venture. Wodgina, one of the world's largest hard-rock lithium deposits, is operated in partnership with Albemarle (ALB.N) , opens new tab. China's Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ) , opens new tab is the partner for Mt Marion. ($1 = 1.5389 Australian dollars) https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/australias-minres-sell-30-lithium-jv-stake-posco-765-mln-2025-11-11/

2025-11-11 23:39

WASHINGTON, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The U.S. Supreme Court on Tuesday extended a pause on a judge's order that required President Donald Trump's administration to fully fund food aid for 42 million low-income Americans this month amid the federal government shutdown, even as lawmakers took steps toward ending the stalemate. The court's action allows the administration for now to continue withholding about $4 billion from the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, known as SNAP or food stamps. Sign up here. Lawyers for the administration told the justices on Monday that an end to the government shutdown would eliminate its need to halt the judge's order, so the court's extension of a pause issued last Friday by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson may prove short-lived. Jackson, on Tuesday, wrote that she would have denied the administration's request to further halt the judge's order. The extended pause is set to expire on Thursday. The U.S. Senate on Monday approved compromise legislation that would end the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, breaking a weeks-long stalemate that has disrupted food benefits for millions, left hundreds of thousands of federal workers unpaid and snarled air traffic. SNAP benefits lapsed at the start of the month for the first time in the program's 60-year history. Recipients have turned to already strained food pantries and made sacrifices like forgoing medications to stretch tight budgets. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-supreme-court-allows-trump-administration-continue-snap-cutback-2025-11-11/