2025-01-22 12:30
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, Jan 21 (Reuters) - "Stairs up, elevator down." The phrase may strike nerves for bullish speculators as it can take weeks or months for prices to build, but the gains can be wiped out much more quickly whenever sufficiently bearish hurdles surface. Luckily for corn bulls, their foundation is somewhat sturdy with global corn stocks set to reach decade-lows this year. However, newly bullish soybean speculators are battling record supplies plus uncertain demand from top buyer China. Most-active Chicago futures have had a healthy start to 2025. Through Tuesday, corn had risen 6.9% in the new year while soybeans were up 5.6%. This strength is somewhat rare, as there are only two other years in the last two decades that featured equal or larger gains by this same date: 2021 and 2008 for corn, and 2022 and 2017 for soybeans. But do funds' bullish bets either pose or signal risks for the near-term price outlook, especially for new-crop futures? Three simple comparisons can be used to examine the historical range of outcomes, all starting with money managers' mid-January positions. The first two look at how new-crop futures trend throughout February and whether February prices were stronger than January ones, or vice versa. The third shows funds' positioning in late March, just before the pivotal U.S. stocks and planting reports. February is important for new-crop CBOT futures, December corn and November soybeans, because the average prices during the month set insurance guarantees for U.S. farmers, possibly impacting planting decisions. THE RESULTS As of Jan. 14, money managers held a net long in CBOT corn futures and options of 292,228 contracts, and their CBOT soybean net long stood at 34,833 contracts. Trade estimates suggest funds made moderately strong increases to these positions through Jan. 21. In the past, whenever funds held 200,000-contract-plus corn net longs in mid-January, new-crop corn futures rose during February. The positions exceeding 268,000 contracts also featured stronger prices in February versus January. Funds were moderately bullish corn in mid-January 2012, 2013 and 2023, and new-crop corn in those years both eased in February and featured lower average February prices versus January. However, prices started out the year at record-high levels in all three cases. Fast forward to late March, funds remained bullish corn in six of the seven years where their mid-January net long exceeded 200,000 contracts, and they came up flat in the seventh. For the most part, the more bullish they were in January, the more bullish they remained in late March. Since 2007, funds were bullish corn to any degree during mid-January 12 times, and they only twice (2019 and 2023) turned bearish by late March. The 2023 event was largely undetected by the market amid a data blackout that spanned February and March. The soybean study offers slightly less insight as money managers have held a mid-January net long in CBOT soybean futures and options in 14 of the last 18 years. November soybeans strengthened throughout February in nine of those 14 years, though unlike in corn, the degree does not correlate that well with funds' January bullishness. Funds were only modestly bullish as of last week, which could signal downside risk. The managed money net long was under 100,000 contracts in seven other Januarys, and new-crop soybeans were weaker in February versus January in five of those cases. Funds' bullish soybean bets as of late March, including the degree, correlate well with those as of mid-January. They remained bullish in five of the seven Marches following a January net long below 100,000 contracts. The other two times they were near flat by late March (2020) and bearish (2015). Interestingly, money managers in late March held a firm net short position in CBOT soybeans in just three of the last 18 years, including 2024. However, November soybeans are averaging nearly 15% lower so far this month versus last January, which might be a mildly friendly factor for bulls. Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/bulled-up-funds-friend-or-foe-chicago-corn-soybeans-2025-01-22/
2025-01-22 12:18
Jan 22 (Reuters) - Canada's main stock index extended its recent winning streak on Wednesday, led by gains for industrial and technology shares, as upbeat U.S. corporate earnings helped boost investor sentiment globally. The Toronto Stock Exchange's S&P/TSX composite index (.GSPTSE) , opens new tab ended up 29.87 points, or 0.1% at 25,311.50, its highest closing level since Dec. 12 and its seventh straight day of gains. That was the longest daily winning streak since August. Wall Street's main indexes also rose as investors cheered corporate earnings and President Donald Trump's multi-billion dollar support to bolster AI infrastructure. "Investors around the world have continued to pile on the equity market bandwagon," said Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management. The industrials sector rose 1.3%, helped by gains for railroad shares, while technology also added 1.3%. Shares of electronic equipment firm Celestica Inc (CLS.TO) , opens new tab rose 4.7%. The utilities group was a drag, falling 1.1%, as bond yields rose. Energy dipped 0.2% as the price of oil settled 0.5% lower at $75.44 a barrel. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/tsx-futures-rise-with-higher-commodity-prices-2025-01-22/
2025-01-22 12:11
BERLIN, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Germany's gas market trading hub is in talks with the economy ministry and regulator about the possibility of contractors receiving subsidies to refill gas storage sites, the Trading Hub Europe (THE) website showed. Traders are concerned that German gas storage is not sufficiently refilled during summer months ready for the following winter as price discrepancies between the seasons act as a disincentive. Typically, gas is stored during summer when demand and prices are lower to be sold later in winter when demand and prices are higher. THE is proposing a subsidy if the spread is not attractive enough for this to happen on a market price basis. "THE has been working on a new product ... in consultation with the German economy ministry and the Bundesnetzagentur regulator which is designed as a pure filling product," said the hub on a slide posted on its website on Tuesday. On another slide, THE said the idea was for incentives via subsidising new storage facilities. It said the supplier could receive a subsidy if new storage was injected on a day when the reference spread was lower than the offer price. Germany's gas storage sites are currently 62.77% full, data from Gas Infrastructure Europe shows. The head of German utility Uniper said on Wednesday incentives could be needed to ensure the storage sites are refilled. Boosting underground storage was one of Germany's main responses to being mostly cut off from Russian pipeline gas since the war in Ukraine began in 2022. Its facilities can hold 23 billion cubic metres, equivalent to over a quarter of annual national consumption last year. German storage operators' group INES said earlier this month storage facilities could be fully refilled for the 2025/26 season under any scenario but called for an increase in financial incentives to encourage firms to book storage. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-considers-plan-subsidise-storage-refills-says-gas-trading-hub-2025-01-22/
2025-01-22 11:59
DUBAI, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed Bin Talal's investment company Kingdom Holding (KHC) (4280.SE) , opens new tab would be interested in investing in ByteDance's TikTok if Elon Musk or others offered to buy it, CEO Talal Ibrahim al-Maiman told Al Arabiya TV on Wednesday. The search to find a buyer for the Chinese-owned popular short-video app continues in the U.S. after it went dark and was revived later by an executive order , opens new tab signed by President Donald Trump delaying the enforcement of a ban on it by 75 days. Trump said on Tuesday he was open to billionaire Musk buying the app if the Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab CEO wanted to do so. KHC already holds stakes in Musk's social media platform X and his artificial intelligence startup xAI. Saudi Arabia's sovereign wealth fund PIF holds a minority stake in KHC, with 5% of the company floated on the Saudi stock exchange. Al-Maiman expected low-cost Saudi airline flynas, in which KHC has substantial shares, to be in the final stage of getting approval from Saudi regulator CMA to be listed, he added on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. While KHC, founded by Saudi Arabia’s self-styled Warren Buffett, Prince Alwaleed, holds a large diverse portfolio that includes petrochemicals, healthcare, real estate and e-commerce, the company wasn't rushing into the cryptocurrency market. "We support Mr. Buffet's theory what you don't buy with, don't invest in, so as we cannot buy any goods with cryptocurrencies therefore we are currently not looking in investing in them," al-Maiman said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/saudi-alwaleeds-khc-interested-tiktok-if-musk-or-others-buy-it-ceo-says-2025-01-22/
2025-01-22 11:51
Siemens Energy in 'sweet spot' in U.S. market Siemens Energy chairperson: AI has led to power sector boom Siemens Energy shares hit new record after comments DAVOS, Switzerland, Jan 22 (Reuters) - Siemens Energy (ENR1n.DE) , opens new tab expects a "massive tailwind" from Donald Trump's power strategy after the new U.S. president announced up to $500 billion in private sector investment to fund infrastructure for artificial intelligence. Shares in Siemens Energy, which makes everything from gas and wind turbines to power network equipment and transmission technology, rose nearly 10% to a record high on Wednesday after Joe Kaeser, who chairs its supervisory board, said it was "in the sweet spot" to benefit. The group's stock pared gains after its main rival, GE Vernova (GEV.N) , opens new tab, released lower-than-expected fourth-quarter sales. Nevertheless, it was still trading up 6.7% at 1144 GMT. "Customers are coming and saying, can you help me? I need gas turbines, I need steam turbines. I need that current connectivity in '29. Can you help me? ... So that's a remarkable time. And Siemens Energy takes advantage of that," he said. Kaeser said on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, that the rise in demand for data centres, which are key to AI technology, as well as the reliable energy capacity needed to power them, had "brought a boom to all energy companies, which is second to none". Trump, who took office this week, announced the investment of up to $500 billion late on Tuesday, fuelling hopes that energy network equipment providers will benefit from a boom in the power-hungry AI sector. The new U.S. president also declared a national energy emergency, intended to provide him with the authority to reduce environmental restrictions on energy infrastructure and projects and ease permitting for new transmission and pipeline infrastructure. "I think the new administration has made it very clear that this is the new energy age," Kaeser said, adding this would play into Siemens Energy's hands and that the next 5-10 years would be a very good time to be in the U.S. market. (Join GMF, a chat room hosted on LSEG Messenger, for live interviews: https://lseg.group/4ajdDTy , opens new tab) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/siemens-energy-sees-massive-tailwind-us-power-drive-2025-01-22/
2025-01-22 11:51
Trump's policies help supply gas to world market This helps bring down prices, diversify procurement Uniper warns of low future gas storage, hopes for auctions BERLIN, Jan 22 (Reuters) - More U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe as called for by President Donald Trump will relieve tight global markets, reduce prices, and help traders diversify their supplies, the head of German utility Uniper (UN0k.DE) , opens new tab said on Wednesday "When Trump sends more gas to Europe it will reduce the world gas price," chief executive Michael Lewis told Reuters. "It means lower energy prices for German industry and customers, that's why it's positive," he said in an interview during the Handelsblatt Energy Summit. On his first day in office on Monday, Trump issued an order for the U.S. to resume processing export permit applications for new LNG projects which were halted by his predecessor Joe Biden. However, the United States is currently exporting all the gas it can ship out and sending more would require a steep increase in production, something that will take time and could prove challenging given current low prices. U.S. LNG has already helped make up for a significant part of supply lost when Germany stopped Russian pipeline imports on which it had long relied after Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. U.S. LNG accounted for 91% of imports at German regasification terminals in 2024, covering 9% of national gas usage in December, industry group BDEW said. In 2023, U.S. LNG made up 84% of imports, which in Dec. 2023 met 6.9% of demand. While that percentage looks small, there was more unquantifiable U.S. gas within a 36.6% share of volumes received via northwest Europe, where LNG terminals deliver gas to Europe's networks. Uniper supplies 200 terawatt hours (TWh) of gas to German industry and utilities, covering a quarter of national demand. It holds procurement contracts with U.S. firms Venture Global and ConocoPhillips (COP.N) , opens new tab. LOW GAS STORAGE Germany's top gas importer and power plant operator, state-controlled Uniper also operates a quarter of Germany's gas storage caverns, where filling levels of around 63% will last through the current winter. But summer filling activity for 2025/26 was low, due to unattractively high storage fees Lewis said, warning of coming supply risks. Storage operator Trading Hub Europe (THE), which also accounts for about 25% of Germany's storage capacity, plans to start holding auctions on behalf of the government to remedy the situation as mandated during the 2022 energy crisis. "THE has to ... get the ball rolling," Lewis said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/more-us-lng-exports-europe-will-help-market-uniper-ceo-says-2025-01-22/
