2025-01-20 06:03

A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Tom Westbrook Markets are looking to the first hours of Donald Trump's presidency to set the tone for his second term. U.S. markets are closed for Martin Luther King day, so the immediate focus will fall on foreign exchange markets and stock and bond futures. Often, market performance through presidential terms reverts to more reliable relationships with economic trends, but Trump tends to inject volatility and has foreshadowed bold policy shifts. He is the first President since Grover Cleveland in the late 1800s to serve two non-consecutive terms and his return is being met with a bout of late trepidation in markets. With the dollar having steamrolled to multiyear highs in recent weeks, traders are wondering whether it could beat a retreat if Trump takes things slowly. They are also questioning whether tariffs, in fact, are dollar positive or not. The greenback drifted lower in cautious Asia trade. Investors have been selling bonds and buying dollars since the middle of September, anticipating not only that Trump would boost growth but that his eagerness to raise tariffs, cut taxes and crack down on immigration may stoke inflation. He has said he will sign nearly 100 executive orders within hours of taking office and, at a rally on Sunday, repeated vows to deport immigrants, slash regulations and unleash energy resources. He had an apparently friendly phone call with Chinese President Xi Jinping on Friday. Trump will take the oath of office at noon, eastern time (1700 GMT), inside the rotunda of the Capitol building, with cold weather forcing proceedings indoors for the first time in 40 years. Trump has underscored his unpredictabilty by saying he would "save" Chinese social media app TikTok, which had been shut down in the U.S. on national security grounds by a law that took effect on Sunday. On Friday he also launched a digital token, which initially soared before sinking somewhat after his wife, Melania Trump, launched a separate token and even some seasoned cryptocurrency investors started to get uneasy about the speculative surge. Bitcoin , which has surged more than 45% since Trump's election, dropped about 3% to $101,800 in another possible hint that a lot of expectations are already well-priced in the market. Key developments that could influence markets on Monday: - Donald Trump presidential inauguration (This story has been refiled to correct the story link on Trump's call with Xi Jinping in paragraph 8) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2025-01-20/

2025-01-20 06:00

Jan 20 (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday issued a flurry of executive orders and directives as he sought to put his stamp on his new administration on matters ranging from energy to criminal pardons and immigration. Here are some of the key executive orders signed on Trump's first day back in office: PARDONS Trump pardoned about 1,500 people who stormed the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in a sweeping gesture of support to the people who assaulted police as they tried to prevent lawmakers from certifying his 2020 election defeat. "We hope they come out tonight, frankly," Trump said. "We're expecting it." The far-reaching action also cuts short the sentences of 14 members of the far-right Proud Boys and Oath Keepers organizations, including some who were convicted of seditious conspiracy. The document also directs the U.S. attorney general to drop pending cases related to the riot. IMMIGRATION Trump signed orders declaring illegal immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border a national emergency, designating criminal cartels as terrorist organizations, and targeting automatic citizenship for U.S.-born children of immigrants in the country illegally. Trump's order dealing with U.S. refugee resettlement will suspend the program for at least four months and will order a review of security to see if travelers from certain nations should be subject to a travel ban, the official said. "The United States lacks the ability to absorb large numbers of migrants," the order said. UNDOING BIDEN ACTIONS At a rally at a sports arena, Trump revoked 78 executive actions of the previous administration. "I'll revoke nearly 80 destructive and radical executive actions of the previous administration," Trump said. Trump also said he will sign an order directing every agency to preserve all records pertaining to "political persecutions" under the Biden administration. The rescission applied to executive orders spanning from former President Joe Biden's first day in office in 2021 to as recently as last week, and covered topics from COVID relief to the promotion of clean energy industries. DIVERSITY Trump also rescinded executive orders that had promoted diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) and promoted rights for LGBTQ+ people and racial minorities, fulfilling promises to curtail protections for the most marginalized Americans. Among the 78 repealed executive orders signed by Biden, including at least a dozen measures supporting racial equity and combating discrimination against gay and transgender people. TIKTOK BAN Trump signed an order to delay a ban for 75 days of popular short-video app TikTok that was slated to be shuttered on Jan. 19. The order directs the attorney general to not enforce the law "to permit my administration an opportunity to determine the appropriate course of action with respect to TikTok." REGULATORY, HIRING FREEZES Trump signed orders freezing government hiring and new federal regulations, as well as an order requiring federal workers to immediately return to full-time in-person work. "I will implement an immediate regulation freeze, which will stop Biden bureaucrats from continuing to regulate," Trump said, adding he will also "issue a temporary hiring freeze to ensure that we're only hiring competent people who are faithful to the American public." The move would force large numbers of white-collar government employees to forfeit remote working arrangements, reversing a trend that took off in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. Some of Trump's allies have said the return-to-work mandate is intended to help gut the civil service, making it easier for Trump to replace long-serving government workers with loyalists. INFLATION Trump ordered all executive departments and agencies to deliver emergency price relief to the American people and increase the prosperity of the American worker. Measures include cutting regulations and climate policies that raise costs, and prescribe actions to lower the cost of housing and expand housing supply. "Over the past 4 years, the Biden Administration’s destructive policies inflicted an historic inflation crisis on the American people," the order said. CLIMATE Trump also signed a withdrawal from the Paris climate treaty, including a letter to the United Nations explaining the withdrawal. The announcement, which has been widely expected ever since Trump won the Nov. 5 presidential election, further threatens the central goal of the agreement to avoid a rise in global temperatures of 1.5 degrees Celsius, a target that appears even more tenuous as last year was the planet's hottest on record. "It is the policy of my Administration to put the interests of the United States and the American people first," the order said. He repealed a 2023 memo from Biden that barred oil drilling in some 16 million acres in the Arctic, saying government should encourage energy exploration and production on federal lands and waters, and eliminated an electric vehicle (EV) mandate. HEALTH Another order withdrew the United States from the World Health Organization, saying the global health agency had mishandled the COVID-19 pandemic and other international health crises. The plan, which aligns with Trump's longstanding criticism of the U.N. health agency, marks a dramatic shift in U.S. global health policy and further isolates Washington from international efforts to battle pandemics. Trump has nominated several critics of the organization to top public health positions, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., a vaccine skeptic who is up for the post of secretary of Health and Human Services, which oversees all major U.S. health agencies including the CDC and FDA. GOVERNMENT EFFICIENCY Trump signed an executive action to create an advisory group called the Department of Government Efficiency aimed at carrying out dramatic cuts to the U.S. government, attracting immediate lawsuits challenging its operations. The group - dubbed "DOGE" - is being run by Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab CEO Elon Musk and has grandiose goals of eliminating entire federal agencies and cutting three quarters of federal government jobs. TARGETING THE 'DEEP STATE' The president signed a document "ending weaponization" of government against political opponents. The order directs the attorney general to investigate the activities of the federal government over the last four years, including at the Department of Justice, the Securities and Exchange Commission, and the Federal Trade Commission during the prior administration. It said the government will "identify and take appropriate action to correct past misconduct by the Federal Government related to the weaponization of law enforcement and the weaponization of the Intelligence Community." FREE SPEECH Trump signed an executive order that he said was aimed at "restoring freedom of speech and ending federal censorship." "Under the guise of combating 'misinformation,' 'disinformation,' and 'malinformation,' the Federal Government infringed on the constitutionally protected speech rights of American citizens," the White House said. Trump and his Republican allies had accused the administration of Democratic former President Biden of encouraging suppression of free speech on online platforms. ENERGY Trump declared a national energy emergency, promising to fill up strategic oil reserves and export U.S. energy all over the world. He laid out a sweeping plan to maximize U.S. oil and gas production - including by declaring a national energy emergency, stripping away excess regulation, and withdrawing the U.S. from an international pact to fight climate change. Trump said he expects the orders to help reduce consumer prices and improve U.S. national security. He also signed orders aimed at promoting oil and gas development in Alaska, reversing Biden's efforts to protect vast Arctic lands and waters from drilling. The U.S. also will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement and end leasing to wind farms, according to the White House's website. In addition, Trump said he would revoke what he has called an electric vehicle mandate. The moves signal a dramatic U-turn in Washington’s energy policy after Biden sought to encourage a transition away from fossil fuels and establish the U.S. as a leader in combating global warming. SACKINGS Trump said on Tuesday he plans to remove over 1,000 appointees from the administration of former President Joe Biden, announcing four dismissals on social media, including celebrity chef Jose Andres and former top general Mark Milley. "My Presidential Personnel Office is actively in the process of identifying and removing over a thousand Presidential Appointees from the previous Administration, who are not aligned with our vision to Make America Great Again," Trump said in a post on Truth Social just after midnight. The step is likely to reignite concerns that the president aims to replace Biden appointees with individuals faithful to his agenda. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/us/heres-what-we-know-about-trumps-planned-executive-orders-so-far-2024-12-17/

2025-01-20 05:08

New US sanctions hit near-term supply and ship availability Trump could relax curbs for accord on Ukraine, analysts say Israel and Hamas ceasefire helps to keep a lid on prices HOUSTON, Jan 20 (Reuters) - Oil prices settled lower on Monday after U.S. President Donald Trump was sworn in for a second time, and said he would immediately declare a national energy emergency, promising to fill up strategic reserves and export American energy all over the world. Brent crude futures closed down by 64 cents, or 0.8%, at $80.15 in early settlement due to the U.S. Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures were down by $1.30, or 1.7%, at $76.58. The more active WTI crude March contract was down 91 cents, or 1.2%, at $76.48. There will be no settlement for WTI contracts due to the U.S. holiday. A Trump official speaking earlier in the day did not provide details on the national emergency, but Trump and his allies have signaled they would use the authority to rapidly approve new oil, gas, and electricity projects that typically take years to permit. Trump, who vowed during his election campaign to "drill, baby, drill," will also sign an executive order focused on Alaska, the official said, adding that the state was critical to U.S. national security and could allow shipments of liquefied natural gas to other parts of the United States and to allied countries. He also said in his inaugural speech that he would impose tariffs and tax countries, and promised an overhaul of the trade system. The focus is on what executive orders Trump will sign over the next 24 hours, said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Trump is also expected to make policy announcements that include an end to a moratorium on LNG export licences as part of a wider strategy to strengthen the economy. The Brent and WTI benchmarks advanced more than 1% last week for a fourth-consecutive weekly gain after the Biden administration imposed sanctions on more than 100 tankers and two Russian oil producers. That led to a scramble by top buyers China and India for prompt oil cargoes and a rush for ship supply, as dealers of Russian and Iranian oil sought tankers not under sanctions for oil shipment. While the new sanctions could cut supply from Russia by nearly 1 million barrels per day, recent price gains could be short-lived depending on Trump's actions, ANZ analysts said in a client note. Trump has promised to help to end the Russia-Ukraine war quickly, which could involve relaxing some curbs to enable an accord, they said. Russian President Vladimir Putin congratulated Trump on taking office hours before Trump's inauguration in Washington and said he was open to dialogue with the new U.S. administration on Ukraine and nuclear arms. Easing tension in the Middle East also kept a lid on oil prices. Hamas and Israel exchanged hostages and prisoners on Sunday that marked the first day of a ceasefire after 15 months of war. Yemen's Houthis will target only Israel-linked vessels following the Gaza ceasefire, the Sanaa-based Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-climb-supply-concerns-over-russian-sanctions-persist-2025-01-20/

2025-01-20 04:26

MUMBAI, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee was boosted by gains in most regional currencies on Monday, while expectations of near-term volatility climbed to a 17-month high ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration as U.S. President later in the day. The rupee was at 86.4850 against the U.S. dollar as of 09:45 a.m. IST, up 0.1% on the day. Asian currencies were mostly higher, with the Korean won and Chinese yuan leading gains. The dollar index declined 0.2% to 109. With Trump set to return to the White House later in the day, currency markets are likely to be acutely sensitive to policy announcements coming out of Washington this week. Trump has pledged to sign a flurry of executive orders on his first day in office. "Our expectations more broadly are for Trump 2.0 to be much faster and bolder in tariff implementation, including a phased 20 ppts increase in the US's average tariffs on imports from China," MUFG Bank said in a note. "In this context, we think there is scope for further weakness in Asian currencies from here." Amid the challenging global set-up and persistent foreign portfolio outflows, the dollar-rupee's 1-month implied volatility, a gauge of future expectations, ascended to a 17-month peak of 4.3%. Meanwhile, India's foreign exchange reserves (INFXR=ECI) , opens new tab have declined $8.7 billion to a 10-month low of $625.87 billion due to the central bank's frequent interventions to slow the pace of the rupee's depreciation. "The RBI appears to now be allowing for more FX flexibility (especially to the upside) to slow the drain on its FX reserves," Nomura said in a note. The central bank is expected to use its forex reserves more judiciously as it looks to quell market volatility amid persistent headwinds, Reuters reported last week. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/rupee-tracks-asian-peers-higher-volatility-expectations-17-month-peak-2025-01-20/

2025-01-20 04:24

Trump meme coin soars in value, Melania Trump's too Launches raise regulatory and ethical concerns, analysts say Trump company says Trump won't be involved in family businesses Bitcoin's price rallies, sets record PARIS/SINGAPORE, Jan 20 (Reuters) - The crypto project connected to President Donald Trump, World Liberty Financial, raised $300 million in token sales, the company said on Monday, as a new Trump memecoin also soared to more than $10 billion in market value as Trump took office for his second term. The boom in Trump-related crypto ventures comes as he promises to usher in a new "golden age" for cryptocurrencies, in stark contrast to the regulatory scrutiny of the industry the Biden administration enforced. WLF, promoted and formed by Trump, his sons, and Trump's new special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, launched two months before the U.S. election. Trump's new memecoin, branded $TRUMP, was launched Friday night during the first-ever Crypto Ball in Washington, D.C., in conjunction with festivities for the inauguration. The coin surged on Monday from less than $10 on Saturday morning to as high as $74.59 before giving up some of its huge rise on Monday. The new coin expanded his cryptocurrency interests beyond WLF. Melania Trump launched her own coin, $MELANIA, on Sunday. Its rally pushed its market cap well beyond $1 billion. Four-fifths of Trump coin's tokens are owned by CIC Digital, an affiliate of Trump's business, and another entity called Fight, Fight, Fight, according to its website. It says the coins are "an expression of support for, and engagement with, the ideals and beliefs embodied by the symbol '$TRUMP'" and are not an investment or security. The launch of WLF just two months before November's U.S. election caused concern over ethics and conflicts of interest. The launch of the memecoin Friday night also raised red flags, even among those in the cryptocurrency industry. "While it's tempting to dismiss this as just another Trump spectacle, the launch of the official Trump token opens up a Pandora's box of ethical and regulatory questions," said Justin D'Anethan, an independent crypto analyst based in Hong Kong. Cryptocurrency lawyer Preston Byrne published a blog post on Sunday in which he predicted a 90% probability of a civil lawsuit opposing the coin within the next 14 days. "Someone will lose money, some lawyer will come up with a theory and file," Byrne wrote. "The memecoin launch is, from a purely political perspective, an enormous unforced error." Byrne declined to comment further. The Trump Organization said this month the president would hand daily management of his multi-billion-dollar real estate, hotel, golf, media and licensing portfolio to his children when he entered the White House. By 2:45 p.m. EST Trump's coin was trading at $42.20, giving it a market cap of about $8.5 billion, according to CoinMarketCap , opens new tab. Twenty-four-hour trading volume was nearly $40 billion, CoinMarketCap data showed. WLF had sold nearly 22 billion tokens on Monday, according to the company's website, trampling past its original goals. That includes a total investment of $75 million from Tron founder Justin Sun, who was charged with crypto-related fraud and securities violations during the Biden administration. Excitement over the so-called meme coins aided a wider rally in cryptocurrency prices as traders and investors grew more hopeful that Trump would keep his promise to be a "crypto president" by loosening regulations and promoting ownership of digital assets. Several key figures in Trump's administration and his circles have ties to the crypto industry. Bitcoin hit $104,031.00 on inauguration day and has surged nearly 7% so far this month. The Trump and Melania cryptocurrencies were created on the lesser-known Solana blockchain, which CoinMarketCap ranks as the third-biggest blockchain network. The price of Solana's coin also rose over the weekend, hitting an all-time high of $294.33 on Sunday. "The cryptocurrency market gained additional popularity in recent hours due to the launch of the TRUMP and MELANIA cryptocurrencies just before the inauguration," said Grzegorz Drozdz, market analyst at Conotoxia Ltd, in a statement. SPECULATIVE ASSETS Peter Schiff, chief economist and global strategist at Euro Pacific Asset Management, pointed to the jump in $TRUMP's value and called it the new digital gold, on social media. Trump's net worth is estimated by Forbes at $6.7 billion. That does not include the value, at least on paper, of the $Trump coin or his earnings from WLF. The prospect of looser regulations around crypto policy has been met with fanfare by the industry and had turbocharged a rally in bitcoin following Trump's election victory in November. The huge rise in the new coin prices prompted concern among some analysts. "Meme cryptocurrencies, like these, are prone to large fluctuations and we generally consider them as speculative assets," Drozdz at Conotoxia said. Trump's coin represented a blending of the world of decentralised finance into the political arena, but it also "blurs the lines between governance, profit and influence," D'Anethan said. "Should public figures, especially those with such political clout, wield this kind of sway in speculative markets? That's a question regulators are unlikely to ignore," he said. The websites for both Trump's and Melania Trump's coins avoid referring to them as cryptocurrencies, instead using the phrase "fungible crypto assets" in their FAQs. On Sunday, Donald Trump Jr. posted on X that the $Trump coin is the "hottest digital meme on earth" and that WLF would be the "future of finance." "We are just getting started," he said. (This story has been corrected to say that World Liberty Financial raised $300 million in token sales, not $1 billion, in paragraph 1) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/technology/trumps-new-crypto-token-jumps-ahead-his-inauguration-2025-01-20/

2025-01-20 03:57

Trump took the oath of office at 12:01 p.m. ET U.S. markets closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday Gold hit over a month high last week Jan 20 (Reuters) - Gold prices edged higher on Monday, bolstered by a weaker U.S. dollar, as markets assessed the potential economic impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's second-term policies following his inauguration. Spot gold added 0.3% to $2,709.09 per ounce as of 1:49 p.m. ET (1849 GMT) with trading volumes thin due to the U.S. markets being closed for the Martin Luther King Jr. Day holiday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.7% at $2,730.20, reducing the premium over the spot price, after a Trump administration official said that President Trump would issue a broad trade memo on his first day in office that stops short of imposing new tariffs. The price spread between New York futures and spot prices was inflated in recent weeks as traders priced in possible U.S. import tariffs and boosted deliveries into the CME stocks. "I believe Donald Trump (presidency) will result in higher market volatility, while some of his policies might keep inflation higher for longer. This should continue to support safe-haven assets like gold," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo said. Gold is used as a hedge against inflation, although Trump's inflationary tariff policies could prompt the Federal Reserve to keep rates higher for longer, diminishing the non-yielding bullion's appeal. Trump has talked of tariffs of as much as 10% on global imports as well as 60% on Chinese goods and a 25% import surcharge on Canadian and Mexican products. "Gold's status as a financial asset makes it likely exempt from broad-based tariffs, and we therefore assign a 10% probability to a 10% effective tariff on gold being introduced within the next 12 months," Goldman Sachs said. Bullion hit its highest since Dec. 12, 2024, last week after cooler core inflation data, Fed Governor Waller's dovish remarks and reports of gradual tariff introductions led traders to price in two rate cuts this year from just one earlier. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab dropped 0.9%, making gold more attractive to foreign buyers. Spot silver rose 0.7% to $30.52 per ounce, palladium shed 0.8% to $940.29 and platinum declined 0.2% to $940.70. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-trims-losses-investors-await-trumps-inauguration-speech-2025-01-20/