2026-01-04 14:20

MOSCOW, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Botswana plans to open an embassy in Moscow soon and has invited Russian investors to cooperate on rare earths and diamonds, Russia's TASS state news agency quoted Botswana's foreign minister as saying on Sunday. Russia is seeking to strengthen its foothold in Africa amid the wider confrontation with the West. Sign up here. "We firmly believe that Botswana is the best place for investment, considering its political and economic stability. Therefore, we strongly encourage Russian investors to come to Botswana," Botswana's Phenyo Butale was quoted as saying by TASS. Diamonds normally contribute around one-third of Botswana's national revenues and three-quarters of its foreign exchange receipts. Russia's Norilsk Nickel (GMKN.MM) , opens new tab, the world's largest producer of palladium and high-grade nickel, settled its dispute with the government of Botswana and BCL Group in 2021 about a transaction for the sale of Nornickel's assets in Africa to BCL Group. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/botswana-open-embassy-moscow-open-up-russia-rare-earths-diamonds-minister-says-2026-01-04/

2026-01-04 14:00

S&P 500 falls at year-end but finishes 2025 with 16% gain Employment data headlines economic reports in coming days Q4 earnings season, inflation data also loom in busy January NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The first full trading week of the new year could shake the U.S. stock market out of its winter holiday slumber as investors parse the rapid developments in Venezuela while monthly jobs data looms. Stocks slid in the final session of 2025, with the benchmark S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab falling into a monthly loss for December. But the index still climbed more than 16% in 2025, its third straight year of double-digit percentage gains, while the Cboe Volatility index (.VIX) , opens new tab was just above its lows for the year. Sign up here. Trading volumes were thin at the end of 2025, but the new year could get off to an eventful start. In dramatic weekend events, U.S. President Donald Trump said on Saturday he was putting Venezuela under temporary American control after the United States captured President Nicolas Maduro. Investors said such developments in the oil-rich country raised the concerns around geopolitical risks, and that any oil price volatility would ripple through assets. Investors also await more drama with a U.S. Supreme Court decision looming on Trump's tariffs, along with his choice of a new Federal Reserve chair, and U.S. corporate earnings season is around the corner. In the first session of 2026 on Friday, the S&P 500 posted a slim gain as semiconductor shares rallied. Though the benchmark is near record highs, it is hovering around its late October level, said Matthew Maley, chief market strategist at Miller Tabak. "The market is looking for direction," Maley said. "We break out of these ranges and that's going to give people either a lot of confidence or a lot of concern, depending on which way it breaks." JOBS DATA COULD SEND RATE SIGNALS The employment data due on January 9 could provide a jolt either way. Concerns over weakness in the labor market prompted the Fed to lower interest rates at each of its last three meetings of 2025, as the U.S. central bank juggles its goals of full employment and contained inflation. Lower rates have supported equities, but the extent of further cuts in 2026 is unclear. Fed officials were divided over the path for monetary policy at the most recent meeting in December. Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% annual target. With the benchmark rate at 3.5% to 3.75%, Fed funds futures suggest little chance of a cut at the next meeting in late January, but nearly a 50% chance of a quarter-point reduction in March. "Softening in the labor market has really given the Fed good cover to change their outlook about reducing rates," said Eric Kuby, chief investment officer at North Star Investment Management in Chicago. At the same time, investors are wary that an overly weak report could signal more economic concern than markets now anticipate. Employment for December is expected to have climbed by 55,000 jobs, a Reuters poll showed. Payrolls rose by 64,000 in November, but unemployment of 4.6% was at a more than four-year high. "If (employment) starts turning down in any kind of meaningful way, that's going to signal that the recession is a lot closer than people think," Maley said. INFLATION, Q4 EARNINGS ALSO LOOM Other data next week includes manufacturing and services sector activity, along with job openings and other labor market data. Economic releases are returning to more normal schedules after a 43-day government shutdown that delayed or canceled many key reports. A closely watched report on inflation trends, the monthly U.S. consumer price index, is due out on January 13. "Anything that has to do with underlying economic activity and inflation is really going to catch the market's attention," said Scott Wren, senior global market strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute. A backdrop of modest economic growth and moderating inflation is "a good environment for stocks and for risk assets in general," he added. Investors will be preparing for the fourth-quarter earnings season, with results from JPMorgan (JPM.N) , opens new tab due on January 13, among other major bank reports that week. With stocks trading at historically lofty valuations, investors are banking on strong earnings growth. Overall S&P 500 company earnings are expected to have climbed 13% in 2025, with another rise of 15.5% in 2026, LSEG IBES data shows. "To make an investment case for the S&P 500 at current levels, one must believe in some combination of good and very good earnings growth and continued investor confidence in economic conditions and macro policy," Nicholas Colas, co-founder of DataTrek Research, said in a research note. https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-week-ahead-jobs-data-could-jolt-stocks-holiday-calm-2026-kicks-off-2026-01-02/

2026-01-04 12:56

Markets face fresh geopolitical risk from US capture of Maduro Uncertainty over Venezuela's oil output and investment prospects Flight to safe-haven assets may materialise in short term LONDON/NEW YORK, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Global investors are facing a fresh surge in geopolitical risk after the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, a move that could unlock the nation's vast oil reserves and boost risk assets over the longer-term but remain a drag on sentiment. Market reaction was fairly muted with stocks rising, oil prices volatile and gold prices getting a lift as investors mostly shrugged off the Venezuela impact on Monday. Sign up here. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would take control of the oil-producing nation, while Maduro, whom the U.S. has repeatedly accused of running a "narco-state" and rigging elections, was in a New York detention centre on Sunday awaiting charges. Washington has not made such a direct intervention in Latin America since the invasion of Panama in 1989. "The events are a reminder that geopolitical tensions continue to dominate the headlines and drive the markets," said Marchel Alexandrovich, an economist at Saltmarsh Economics. "It is clear that the markets are having to cope with significantly more headline risk than they are accustomed to under the previous U.S. administrations." MARKETS OFF TO STRONG 2026 START U.S. stock futures and Asian equities rose in early Asian hours on Monday, while gold gained over 1% after struggling last week in the first reaction to the strikes. Markets had kicked off the first trading day of the year on a strong footing, with Wall Street indexes closing in the green and the dollar rising against a basket of major currencies on Friday. U.S. and global stocks ended 2025 near record highs, having notched double-digit gains in a tumultuous year dominated by tariff wars, central bank policy and simmering geopolitical tensions. Gold rose the most in 46 years to record highs last year, driven by a cocktail of factors including U.S. rate cuts and geopolitical flashpoints. It was last at $4,400 per ounce. Trump said at a press conference on Saturday that the United States would "run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition." He provided little detail on how this would work, but said he was not afraid of sending in the U.S. military. The move has also thrust Venezuela's debt crisis - one of the world's largest unresolved sovereign defaults - into the limelight. NO QUICK FIX FOR VENEZUELA'S OIL Just hours after capturing the Venezuelan leader, Trump said American oil companies were prepared to spend billions to restore Venezuela's crude production, something that could give global growth a lift as greater supply lowers energy prices. The oil price edged above $62 a barrel in December, when the U.S. blocked sanctioned tankers from entering or leaving Venezuela, but has been fairly stable at around $60-$61 since. Brent crude futures rose 15 cents to $60.89 a barrel after paring earlier losses. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was at $57.43 a barrel. "From an investing perspective, this could unlock massive quantities of oil reserves over time," Brian Jacobsen, chief economic strategist at Annex Wealth Management, said. "Markets sometimes swing into risk-off mode on expectations of conflict, but once the conflict starts, they rotate quickly to risk-on." David Kotok, co-founder of Cumberland Advisors based in Sarasota, Florida, said that the possible unlocking of reserves - if it causes a lower oil price over the long term - could have bullish implications for stocks. "Whether it happens over the next year or two, and if the market discounts it before it happens, is a separate question," said Kotok. Most stock markets in the Gulf closed lower on Sunday, in response to Friday's fall in oil prices as investors weighed oversupply concerns against geopolitical risks. Still, most strategists agree it could take years to meaningfully boost Venezuelan output, which has plummeted over the past decades due to mismanagement and a lack of investment from foreign companies after the government nationalised oil operations in the 2000s, including the assets of ExxonMobil XOM.N , opens new tab and ConocoPhillips COP.N , opens new tab. Chevron is the only American major currently operating in Venezuela. Any companies that might want to invest there would need to deal with security concerns, dilapidated infrastructure, questions about the legality of the U.S. operation to snatch Maduro and the potential for long-term political instability, analysts told Reuters. 'POLITICAL STABILITY AND CONSIDERABLE INVESTMENT' Stephen Dover, who is chief market strategist and head of Franklin Templeton Institute at Franklin Templeton, said in aLinkedIn post , opens new tab the U.S. administration has shown it is willing to act unilaterally and use force, which could reinforce the trend of countries spending more on their own national security. He said it will also likely add to the uncertainty of the dollar’s role as a safe haven "while raising further questions about deterioration of international institutional pillars." Over the longer run, a more stable, productive and prosperous Venezuela could offer the world significant supplies of oil, he said. "That would be significant for global growth, but it will take political stability and considerable investment to unlock that potential." https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/investors-face-more-geopolitical-whiplash-trumps-venezuela-gamble-2026-01-04/

2026-01-04 12:54

MANCHESTER, England, Jan 4 (Reuters) - Championship fixtures between Sheffield United and Oxford and Portsmouth and Ipswich Town were among numerous English Football League matches postponed on Sunday due to frozen pitches. "The referee was called to Bramall Lane this morning with parts of the playing surface frozen and following an inspection he has taken the decision to call off the fixture due to concerns over player safety," Sheffield United said in a statement. Sign up here. "An announcement regarding a rearranged date will be confirmed in due course." The freezing conditions across the country led to the postponement of 13 EFL games. In League One, Doncaster's game against Luton Town and Rotherham's game against visiting Mansfield were postponed. Nine League Two games -- at Barnet, Barrow, Bromley, Colchester, Harrogate Town, Newport County, Notts County, Salford City and Walsall -- were postponed. https://www.reuters.com/sports/soccer/numerous-efl-games-postponed-sunday-due-freezing-temperatures-2026-01-04/

2026-01-04 12:28

AMSTERDAM, Jan 4 - KLM said winter weather has forced it to cancel 124 flights that were scheduled for Monday to and from Amsterdam’s Schiphol Airport. The Dutch arm of Air France-KLM (AIRF.PA) , opens new tab has already cancelled hundreds of flights since Friday as cold conditions disrupt operations at Schiphol. Sign up here. The airport has warned passengers to expect delays and cancellations as staff work to de-ice aircraft. Up to 5 centimetres of fresh snow is expected in some parts of the Netherlands in coming days, forecasters say. https://www.reuters.com/business/dutch-airline-klm-cancels-124-flights-snow-falls-2026-01-04/

2026-01-04 11:29

LONDON, Jan 4 (Reuters) - The U.S. military’s ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is set to swiftly reroute the country’s oil exports back toward the United States – and away from China. That will give U.S. refiners an immediate boost, but President Donald Trump’s plans to revive production in the Latin American country may be slower to materialize. Speaking on Saturday after announcing Maduro’s arrest on Truth Social, Trump said he would maintain the U.S. embargo on exports of sanctioned Venezuelan crude oil for now, but also stated that the U.S. would run Venezuela "for a period of time," suggesting U.S. restrictions could be lifted very soon. Sign up here. Benchmark oil prices had edged higher in recent weeks as Washington stepped up its military and economic pressure on Caracas. But any new disruption to exports will likely have a limited impact on the global oil market, particularly since supplies are set to sharply exceed demand in 2026. Venezuela, once a major producer, last year pumped only around 900,000 barrels per day, accounting for less than 1% of global supply. This followed years of shrinking investment due to failed government policies and sanctions. It was unclear how Venezuela's regime change will unfold, but a peaceful shift to a U.S.-friendly regime would almost certainly lead to the repeal of Washington’s sanctions. This will offer Venezuela’s creaking oil sector a much-needed reprieve and, perhaps more importantly, redraw the global refining map. REFINERY RE-ROUTE A smooth transition in Caracas will likely result in a rapid rerouting of Venezuelan oil exports, re-establishing the U.S. as the major buyer of the country's volumes. Oil refineries along the U.S. Gulf Coast, the country's main refining and exporting hub, were built decades ago to process heavy-grade crude – the type Venezuela exports – for products such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. Although the U.S. crude oil mix dramatically changed following the boom in domestic shale oil – a light grade – in the early 2010s, many refineries still require heavy grades to optimise operations. Venezuelan crude exports to the U.S. reached a peak of 1.4 million bpd in 1997, when they accounted for 44% of Venezuela's production, according to the Energy Information Administration. The flow gradually declined to 506,000 bpd in 2018 as supplies of competing heavy grades from the U.S., Mexico and Canada increased. Venezuelan exports collapsed to zero between 2020 and 2022 after Trump imposed direct oil sanctions on the state-owned energy company PDVSA. But they then recovered to 227,000 bpd in 2024 and 140,000 bpd in the first 10 months of 2025 after Washington in 2020 issued Chevron (CVX.N) , opens new tab a waiver to continue operating its joint ventures in Venezuela. A BLOW TO CHINA A shift in Venezuela’s exports would come largely at the expense of China, which became the main importer of Venezuelan oil after Trump imposed sanctions on the country’s energy industry in 2019. China accounted for more than half of Venezuela's crude exports of 768,000 bpd last year, according to data from analytics firm Kpler. Trump suggested on Saturday that China will continue to receive some Venezuelan oil under a U.S.-led government in Caracas, but that amount is likely to be limited. Around two-thirds of Chinese oil imports from Venezuela go to independent refineries, known as teapots, that are willing to flout sanctions in order to purchase the crude at sharp discounts, according to Reuters estimates. However, if sanctions are lifted, oil would be sold at international prices, removing the incentive for these buyers. The remaining one-third of current oil exports to China goes towards repayment of Caracas’s heavy debts to Beijing. It is unclear if this trade would continue, as the oil is probably delivered at or near production costs, far below market prices. Ultimately, the direction of travel for the bulk of Venezuela’s crude volumes is clear. The U.S. is a far more natural market than China, due to the geographic proximity, making freight costs significantly lower. If the bulk of the current Venezuelan exports to Chinese "teapots" gets redirected to the U.S., the latter's imports could increase by more than 200,000 bpd within months of this action, more than doubling U.S. purchases, based on 2025 export levels, according to Reuters estimates. SLOW PRODUCTION BUILD While Venezuelan export routes may change quickly, any meaningful recovery in the country's production and exports will take much longer. Trump said on Saturday that large U.S. oil companies will re-enter the country to revive its energy industry - a lucrative prospect since Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil and gas reserves of around 303 billion barrels, concentrated in the Orinoco belt region. U.S. oil companies helped discover and develop Venezuela's oil riches beginning in the 1920s, turning the Latin American country into the world's second-largest producer by the 1930s. However, Western companies including Chevron, Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) , opens new tab and Shell (SHEL.L) , opens new tab were forced to retreat after Venezuela nationalised the industry first in the 1970s and again under Hugo Chavez in the 2000s. NEED FOR STABILITY Venezuela's production consequently shriveled from a peak of 3.7 million bpd in 1970 to a low of 665,000 bpd in 2021 before slightly recovering in 2024. Western companies will likely be eager to tap into Venezuela's abundant and low-cost resources. But they will require a certain degree of political stability and confidence regarding the sanctity of contracts before pouring billions into new projects or signing long-term trade deals. Further complicating expansion plans is the fact that Venezuela owes Exxon, ConocoPhillips and Chevron billions of dollars in unpaid joint-venture costs, which the companies would likely require to settle before making sizeable new investments. Even assuming such political, legal and financial hurdles are resolved, developing new oil and gas projects would still take years. Venezuelan oil production could increase by up to 200,000 bpd in the first year following a Maduro ouster, according to Rapidan Energy’s forecasts, and double to 2 million bpd within a decade under the consultancy’s most optimistic scenario. But even if Trump’s dramatic actions don’t lead to an immediate revamp of Venezuela’s oil industry, they should still be a warning to investors: the rules of the global energy game have changed. Want to receive my column in your inbox every Monday and Thursday, along with additional energy insights and links to trending stories? Sign up for my Power Up newsletter here. Enjoying this column? Check out Reuters Open Interest (ROI), , opens new tabyour essential new source for global financial commentary. ROI delivers thought-provoking, data-driven analysis. Markets are moving faster than ever. ROI , opens new tab can help you keep up. Follow ROI on LinkedIn , opens new tab and X. , opens new tab https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/us-oil-refiners-win-chinese-rivals-lose-trumps-venezuela-strike-2026-01-04/