2025-01-14 00:40
BENGALURU, Jan 14 (Reuters) - The Bank of Korea will cut its base rate by a quarter-point on Thursday, a month earlier than previously expected, to support a struggling South Korean economy amid risks from political uncertainty, according to a Reuters poll of economists. Acting president Choi Sang-mok is facing a delicate task steering Asia's fourth-largest economy amid public anger around efforts to arrest impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol and the government lowering its 2025 growth outlook to 1.8% from 2.2%. Political turmoil and high domestic household debt have sent the Korean won to its weakest in nearly 15 years while tariff threats from U.S. President-elect Donald Trump have driven expectations of fewer U.S. interest rate cuts this year. Around 80% of economists, 27 of 34, polled Jan. 8-13 expected the BOK to cut its base rate (KROCRT=ECI) , opens new tab by 25 basis points to 2.75% on Jan. 16. The remaining seven forecast no change. A November poll following a surprise reduction of the base rate to 3.00% saw a majority of economists predict the bank would next cut rates in February. "Against a backdrop of heightened political uncertainty and intensifying growth concerns, we think the Bank of Korea will deliver its third straight 25 bp cut at its upcoming meeting. The case to move sooner rather than later has strengthened," said Krystal Tan, economist at ANZ. "The main hurdle for successive rate cuts is recent KRW weakness and concerns about financial stability... Prolonged political instability and/or direct U.S. tariffs on South Korea exports would call for more accommodative monetary policy." Median forecasts showed one cut from the BOK this quarter and the same move in both the second and third quarters taking the rate to 2.25% - considered the neutral rate. That would be followed by a hold until at least mid-2026. Half - 14 of 28 - who had forecasts until year-end expected the base rate at 2.25%. Still, eight predicted it at 2.50% and six at 2.00% highlighting the uncertainty of the outlook ahead of Trump's inauguration on Jan. 20. "Still-subdued domestic demand recovery, along with the sharp decline in consumer sentiment in part due to the domestic politics, likely mean that the board will continue to lower its policy rate towards neutral," said Jin Choi, Korea economist at HSBC. "However, we note that a meaningful change in the U.S. Fed's future policy trajectory could constrain the BOK's easing going forward." (Other stories from the January Reuters global economic poll) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/rates-bonds/bank-korea-cut-rates-jan-16-may-ease-just-once-this-quarter-amid-political-2025-01-14/
2025-01-14 00:38
LONDON, Jan 14 (Reuters) - Britain will sign a minerals cooperation partnership with Saudi Arabia that could help strengthen supply chains, create opportunities for British businesses and attract investment into the UK, the British government said on Tuesday. WHY IT'S IMPORTANT Britain needs a secure, long-term supply of critical minerals, such as copper, lithium and nickel, which are used to make smartphones and electric cars, but are also vital to build data centres that help develop artificial intelligence systems. On its part, Saudi Arabia, which estimates the value of its untapped mineral resources at $2.5 trillion, is aiming to become a major global hub for critical minerals trade. CONTEXT For Britain, the deal will form part of a broader industrial strategy that it says will be key to both national security and its objective to boost economic growth and create jobs. The partnership also comes as British and Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) negotiators continue talks this week about a free trade agreement. DETAILS British Industry Minister Sarah Jones will lead a trade mission to Saudi Arabia along with 16 UK critical minerals companies including Cornish Lithium and Beowulf Mining (BEM.L) , opens new tab interested in doing business in the Middle East. The new partnership will be signed at the Future Minerals Forum in Riyadh, where the companies will be exhibiting and offering their expertise to potential customers. KEY QUOTES "Critical minerals are increasingly vital to our economy, as we turbocharge AI, clean energy and new technologies," Jones is due to say in a speech at the forum. "In the global race for economic growth, and in an increasingly uncertain world, the UK must secure supplies of these critical minerals." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uk-sign-critical-minerals-partnership-with-saudi-arabia-2025-01-14/
2025-01-13 23:59
LONDON, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The London Metal Exchange (LME) has now fully recovered from its near-death nickel crisis in 2022, with trading activity last year the strongest since 2015 and the fourth highest on record. Average daily volumes at the 148-year-old institution were 664,698 lots in 2024, up by 18.2% on 2023, the LME said. Nickel volumes jumped by 58.8% and by the end of the year were back at levels seen in 2021 prior to the market meltdown and suspension of trading in March 2022. Underpinning the recovery has been a steep rise in LME nickel inventory, part of a broader trend of higher exchange stocks, and renewed investor interest in the industrial metals sector. The tide of fund money also lifted volumes on the CME (CME.O) , opens new tab, which has been aggressively expanding its metals portfolio to compete with the LME. Indeed, the world of metals trading is becoming an ever more contested arena with the Shanghai Futures Exchange (ShFE) looking to expand its international presence and new players offering alternative pricing models. STOCKS LIQUIDITY The LME's nickel crisis was compounded by low stocks and the lack of physical delivery options available to big short position holders such as China's Tsingshan Group. The exchange has since approved as good delivery six new brands of nickel, five from China and one from Indonesia. LME nickel inventory, both on-warrant and off-warrant, grew to almost 230,000 metric tons at the end of November 2024 from under 40,000 in May 2023. LME stocks are now much more aligned with nickel market dynamics, which has boosted both confidence and trading volumes. Nickel is just one component of a bigger turn of the inventory cycle. LME stocks of all metals were 2.2 million tons at the end of November, up by 505,000 tons on the start of 2024 and more than double levels seen over much of 2022. More inventory means more financing and, in the case of aluminium and zinc in particular, more stocks churn as traders arbitrage storage differentials. All the LME base metals except tin saw higher exchange stock levels last year, which helps explain the rise in activity across all the core contracts. THE INVESTMENT RADAR Tin volumes jumped by 25.9% in 2024 relative to 2023 even though it was the only metal to see exchange stocks decline over the year. That speaks to the other big driver of increased LME activity last year - the return of investors to the base metals markets. Funds were holding record long positions on the LME tin contract in September, reflecting broader investment interest in the clean-energy metals narrative. No surprise that copper volumes on the LME and the CME exchanges surged in the first half of 2024 as funds stampeded into a market that was trading at record nominal highs. Retail investors are also being drawn into metals trading. CME's micro copper contract, which the exchange says is "tailored to the individual investor", has seen volumes more than double in both 2023 and 2024. Although each contract is for just 2,500 pounds of copper, last year's volumes were equivalent to over 3.3 million tons. However, fund flows in copper peaked with the price and all three major exchanges saw volumes slide over the second part of 2024. Funds also left the tin market after September with volume growth in the LME contract slowing to just 8.9% in December from over 40% in the second quarter. Indeed, total LME volumes contracted in December for the first time since March 2023 as a resurgent dollar and a record-breaking U.S. stock market saw metals once again fall off the investor radar. For how long remains to be seen. MORE CONTRACTS, MORE COMPETITION The LME can now boast three increasingly liquid steel contracts, although it has lost out to the CME when it comes to battery metals such as cobalt and lithium. The CME's lithium hydroxide contract saw volumes surge from 20,307 lots in 2023 to 91,094 last year, making it the most liquid reference point outside of China. CME cobalt volumes of 28,720 lots last year dwarfed the 1,600 lots traded on the London contract. The Shanghai exchange, meanwhile, has fleshed out its core base metals portfolio with new lead, nickel and tin options contracts and an alumina contract that notched up volumes of over 79 million lots in its first full year of trading. ShFE has made no secret of its ambition to lure more overseas players to the Shanghai market and has been looking at international delivery points to achieve benchmark pricing status. With the CME's aluminium futures and options volumes also growing last year, the LME's dominant role in global metals pricing is facing threats from both East and West as well as new players looking for a piece of the metals trading action. BHP's (BHP.AX) , opens new tab suspension of its nickel operations last year appeared to scupper plans by ABAXX Commodity Exchange and Global Commodities Holdings (GCH) to launch alternative pricing models. But ABAXX launched its nickel sulphate contract on Jan. 10 and has just announced , opens new tab the first block trade executed between Traxys and HNK Alpha. GCH, meanwhile, posted on LinkedIn on Friday that "the world's first truly physical nickel contract is coming to life" with a bid-ask spread for full-plate metal in Rotterdam. There may yet be a sting in the tail of the LME nickel saga. The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a columnist for Reuters. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/lme-puts-2022-nickel-crisis-behind-it-trading-booms-andy-home-2025-01-13/
2025-01-13 23:55
JOHANNESBURG, Jan 13 (Reuters) - At least 400 illegal miners remained trapped underground in South Africa two months after a police raid, a group working on behalf of the miners said on Monday, which provided footage of dozens of dead bodies and emaciated men in the mine. A spokesperson for the South Africa Police Service (SAPS) did not respond to a request for comment. Makhosonke Buthelezi, spokesperson for the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy, said bodies had been retrieved from the mine but said no further details could be divulged ahead of an official report. The two videos, which Reuters verified, were obtained by South African miners' rights group Mining Affected Communities United in Action (MACUA) on Monday. They received them from miners emerging from the gold mine in North West Province on Jan. 10, when a pulley was restored to the bottom of the cavern. A Reuters reporter counted what looked like three dozen bodies in the footage. Reuters could not independently confirm that the body-shaped objects wrapped in plastic at the bottom of the mine shaft were corpses. The first film reportedly showed piles of miners' bodies wrapped in sacks and plastic, while living miners who are still stuck underground pleaded for help. A second video showed shirtless miners looking emaciated, with their ribs protruding. Police said they blocked miners' supplies of food and water to force them out and arrest them for illegally entering the abandoned mine in search of leftover gold - part of a crackdown on illegal mining that has plagued South Africa for decades. MACUA spokesperson Magnificent Mndebele said there are more than 400 miners still waiting to be rescued two months after a standoff with South African police. Mndebele said someone had destroyed a pulley system which was used for lowering supplies to the miners, - and enabling them to get out, but MACUA restored it on Jan. 9. "The shaft is two kilometres deep. It's impossible for people to climb up," Mndebele said. South African authorities are currently at the mine with machinery, preparing for a planned rescue this week, Buthelezi confirmed. "The pulley system was put in place by community members, but it has been replaced with machinery used by mine rescue services," he said. "The mine rescue services were contracted by the Department of Mineral Resources and Energy." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/footage-shows-dozens-dead-miners-trapped-after-south-africa-police-raid-2025-01-13/
2025-01-13 23:40
Moderna slides after cutting 2025 sales forecast Chip stocks fall as US tightens grip on AI chip flows Health insurers rise after US proposes 2026 payment rates Indexes: Dow up 0.86%, S&P 500 up 0.16%, Nasdaq off 0.38% NEW YORK, Jan 13 (Reuters) - The Nasdaq fell on Monday, while the benchmark S&P 500 bounced off a two-month low and eked out a slight gain as U.S. Treasury yields stayed elevated with investors dialing back expectations on the pace of rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Recent economic data have indicated a resilient economy with nagging price pressures, which has pressured equities. Comments from Fed officials have pushed bond yields higher. The S&P 500 had weekly losses in four of the last five weeks. Promised tariffs from President-elect Donald Trump have also fueled worries about inflation. Treasury yields edged higher, with the benchmark 10-year note yield touching a 14-month high of 4.805% and last up 1.6 basis points to 4.79%. Markets are pricing in about 27 basis points of cuts from the Fed this year, with a 52.9% chance for a June cut. "There's concern that we're going to see higher inflation numbers, I'm not so sure that's positively the case, but that's sort of the concern here and that it's going to be a while before we see lower rates again," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. "The inflation issue is out there and higher yields in general aren't great for either the bond market or really the stock market. You do have out there as well, Jan. 21st coming up and you know and we'll see what the new administration does." The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 358.67 points, or 0.86%, to 42,297.12, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab gained 9.18 points, or 0.16%, to 5,836.22 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab lost 73.53 points, or 0.38%, to 19,088.10. The Dow was buoyed by a 3.93% gain in UnitedHealth Group (UNH.N) , opens new tab after President Joe Biden's administration proposed 2026 reimbursement rates for Medicare Advantage plans run by private insurers, which would result in a 2.2% increase in payments. CVS Health (CVS.N) , opens new tab and Humana (HUM.N) , opens new tab jumped about 7% as the S&P 500 health care sector (.SPXHC) , opens new tab rose 1.27%. Utilities (.SPLRCU) , opens new tab and tech (.SPLRCT) , opens new tab led decliners. Edison International (EIX.N) , opens new tab tumbled more than 11.89% after Bloomberg News reported the southern California utility was hit with a lawsuit blaming the company's equipment for igniting one of the wildfires consuming parts of the state. Energy (.SPNY) , opens new tab climbed 2.25%, the biggest daily gain of the 11 major S&P sectors, as crude prices kept rising on expectations that tougher U.S. sanctions on Russian oil would force buyers in India and China to other suppliers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) numbers and the central bank's Beige Book on economic activity, both due on Wednesday, will likely help shape views on the Fed's policy outlook. Chip stocks slipped, with Nvidia (NVDA.O) , opens new tab down 1.97% and Micron Tech off 4.31% after the U.S. government said it would further restrict artificial-intelligence chip and technology exports. The PHLX semiconductor index (.SOX) , opens new tab was lower. Moderna (MRNA.O) , opens new tab plummeted 16.8% as the biggest decliner on the S&P 500 after slashing its 2025 sales forecast by $1 billion. Declining issues outnumbered advancers by a 1.02-to-1 ratio on the NYSE, and by a 1.4-to-1 ratio on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 posted three new 52-week highs and 23 new lows, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded 23 new highs and 252 new lows. Volume on U.S. exchanges was 14.88 billion shares, compared with the 15.73 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/futures-slide-investors-bet-no-fed-rate-cuts-2025-yields-climb-2025-01-13/
2025-01-13 23:06
Jan 14 (Reuters) - Amazon (AMZN.O) , opens new tab said on Tuesday it has ordered 200 Mercedes-Benz fully-electric eActros 600 heavy goods vehicles from Daimler (DTGGe.DE) , opens new tab to serve the German and UK markets in its largest electric truck order so far. The e-commerce giant said the trucks will start joining its network later this year and will be deployed on "high-mileage routes" across Amazon's middle-mile network between fulfilment centres, sort centres and delivery stations. "This is a a major milestone for us," Andreas Marschner, Amazon's Vice President of Amazon Worldwide Operations Sustainability, told Reuters. "Decarbonizing the heavy goods sector is the most challenging part of the transportation space." This order is part of Amazon's commitment to hit net-zero carbon emissions across its operations by 2040. It is also the largest electric truck order yet for the Mercedes-Benz Trucks brand, Daimler said. Aside from a price tag far above diesel truck equivalents, logistics companies have struggled to find electric trucks that have enough range to handle demanding delivery routes and the charging infrastructure to keep them on the road. The 40-ton eActros 600 has a range of 500 km (311 miles) that Marschner said makes it adaptable to Amazon's delivery network. But he added that Amazon is supporting the trucks' roll-out by building a 360 kilowatt fast charger network on its own sites, which can charge a truck from 20% to 80% in less than an hour, "which is compatible also with legal driver breaks." He said that efforts to boost charging infrastructure in the European Union and the United Kingdom are still in early stages and Amazon is working with charging companies and regulators to speed up investments. "The major transportation corridors in the UK and Germany are still very limited with public charging and high-capacity charging we would need for trucks," Marschner said. "This is a challenge these days as it reduces the ability to use these assets." Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/amazon-orders-200-new-electric-heavy-trucks-daimler-germany-uk-2025-01-13/
