2025-01-10 07:38

SINGAPORE, Jan 10 (Reuters) - China emitted 13 billion metric tons of climate-warming greenhouse gases in 2021, up 4.3% from a year earlier, it said in its latest official submission to the United Nations, published by state media on Friday. The figure is the latest official calculation of annual greenhouse emissions by China, by far the world's biggest carbon polluter. The last official estimate covered 2017 and measured total emissions at 11.55 billion tons. As a signatory to the Paris Agreement, China is now obliged to submit detailed emissions numbers every two years, as well as progress reports on climate change adaptation and mitigation. China's first biennial report, formally submitted to the United Nations' climate body at the end of December, showed that annual greenhouse gas emissions - including carbon dioxide, methane and others - rose more than 70% since 2005, driven by surging energy demand. Energy sector-related emissions in 2021 accounted for 11 billion tons, 76.9% of the total. Among the major sectors, emissions from cement production stood at 802 million tons of CO2 in 2021, down 3.2% on the year as a result of declining clinker production. Emissions from steel smelting also fell 2.3% to 65.5 million tons. China aims to bring total CO2 emissions to a peak before 2030, but it is struggling to meet a 2025 interim target to cut the amount of CO2 produced per unit of economic growth by 18% between 2021 and 2025. Beijing is expected to release updated 2035 climate targets to the United Nations before February. A state think tank has recommended that the government should include a commitment to reduce total emissions for the first time and pledge to double renewable capacity by 2030. In the report published on Friday, China said it would need to spend 26.8 trillion yuan ($3.66 trillion) from 2024 in order to meet a state target to become "carbon neutral" by 2060. ($1 = 7.3319 yuan) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/china-says-greenhouse-gas-emissions-hit-13-billion-tons-2021-2025-01-10/

2025-01-10 07:35

JOHANNESBURG, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The South African rand weakened to an eight-month low on Friday after U.S. non-farm payrolls data reinforced bets that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle later this month. At 1501 GMT, the rand traded at 19.1375 against the U.S. dollar , about 1.1% softer than its previous close. It earlier hit 19.2050 per dollar, its weakest level since late April last year. The greenback was last up about 0.4% against a basket of currencies after a Labor Department report showed the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, much higher than economists' forecasts for an increase of 160,000. Investors have been digesting U.S. economic data this week, which points to continued resilience, while Fed speakers have taken a more conservative stance in their signalling. On the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, the blue chip Top-40 index (.JTOPI) , opens new tab closed down about 0.3%. South Africa's benchmark 2030 government bond was also weaker, with the yield up 12 basis points at 9.265%. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/south-african-rand-softens-ahead-us-jobs-data-2025-01-10/

2025-01-10 07:25

Jan 10 (Reuters) - Southern California Edison said on Thursday it had received notices from insurance companies to preserve evidence related to the Eaton Fire that is still burning in Los Angeles, but said no fire agencies have pointed the utility's connection to the fire. The group, a unit of U.S. utility Edison International (EIX.N) , opens new tab, said its filing to regulators was triggered by online publications that "seemingly suggest" the group's equipment may have been associated with the fire's ignition. "To date, no fire agency has suggested that SCE's electric facilities were involved in the ignition or requested the removal and retention of any SCE equipment," it said. The utility added that it did not find any interruptions or anomalies in its transmission lines until more than an hour after the reported start time of the fire, citing preliminary analysis done by the group. "Aside from the preservation notices suggesting SCE's potential involvement and significant media attention surrounding the fire, we do not believe this incident meets the reporting requirements," the utility added. Two massive wildfires, the Palisades Fire between Santa Monica and Malibu on the city's western flank and the Eaton Fire in the east near Pasadena, have consumed more than 34,000 acres (13,750 hectares) and have lead to 10 deaths. The fires have collectively devoured over 10,000 homes and other structures and have been ranked as the most destructive in Los Angeles history. Private forecaster AccuWeather have estimated the damage and economic loss at $135 billion to $150 billion, portending an arduous recovery and soaring homeowners' insurance costs. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/edison-denies-la-wildfire-involvement-insurers-ask-it-preserve-evidence-2025-01-10/

2025-01-10 07:24

PBOC expected to cut rates more aggressively this year Cenbank dropped prudent stance but may have to stay cautious Bond buying suspension highlights PBOC constraints Room for more rate, RRR cuts rapidly narrowing More easing also raises risk of asset bubbles BEIJING, Jan 10 (Reuters) - China's central bank is expected to deploy its most aggressive monetary tactics in a decade this year as it tries to stimulate the economy and soften the blow of impending U.S. tariff hikes, but in doing so it risks quickly exhausting its firepower. Friday's announcement by the People's Bank of China (PBOC) that it has suspended treasury bond purchases due to the asset's scarcity highlights the limitations of its resources as it confronts an increasingly challenging economic environment. Policy implementation is complicated by various factors, analysts say. There is the risk of currency and capital outflows, weak domestic credit demand and diminishing room to cut interest rates and inject liquidity by reducing reserve requirement ratios (RRR) - the amount of cash banks need to hold for rainy days. These constraints are all interconnected. Further bond purchases, rate cuts or liquidity injections could exert depreciation pressure on the yuan, potentially causing funds needed for domestic growth to flow overseas. Constraints were evident even before the bond buying suspension. PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng, in rare forward-looking remarks, flagged in September the possibility of another RRR cut by year-end, depending on market conditions but the cut has not occurred, despite the looser policy stance. More monetary easing could support the economy in the near-term, but feed asset bubbles in the long term. The PBOC has repeatedly warned that the bond rally that has pushed yields to record lows could undermine financial stability when markets turn. "Short versus long term , internal versus external, and exchange rate versus interest rates – these are multiple conflicts," said Xing Zhaopeng, ANZ's senior China strategist Faced with deflationary pressures and mounting headwinds to already stuttering growth, China's top leaders in December ditched their 14-year-old "prudent" monetary policy stance for a "moderately loose" posture. But the space to cut interest rates and bank reserve requirements is smaller than the scale of easing deployed during the "prudent" era, implying that the PBOC may in practice have to be more careful than before, analysts say. The PBOC's seven-day reverse repo rate, its new benchmark policy rate since last year, stands at 1.5% after a total of 30 basis point (bps) cuts in 2024. It is 203 bps lower than in May 2012, the first data point publicly available. "Theoretically, the lower limit of interest rates is zero, as seen in the U.S. and Japan. However, I don't think China's rates will drop to zero," said Larry Hu, chief China economist at Macquarie. Hu predicts 40 bps of policy rate cuts, which would still be the most aggressive annual reduction since 2015. "If credit demand doesn't pick up, further rate cuts may not lead to increased lending and could instead create financial market bubbles," Hu said, adding that it would also hurt bank profitability and raise capital outflow risks by weakening the currency too fast and curbing confidence in the economy. Business confidence is subdued and consumer sentiment is near record lows. Net interest margins at banks, a key measure of lending profitability, shrank to an all-time low of 1.53% in the third quarter of 2024. Still, most analysts expect an RRR cut this month and a cumulative reduction of up to 100 bps throughout 2025 from the weighted average ratio of 6.6%. This would bring average RRR closer to the 5% threshold - currently the requirement for the smallest banks, widely seen as the lowest bound. DIFFICULT TRANSITION The diminishing room for cutting rates and RRR may also put a spanner in the works for the central bank's reforms. The PBOC's stated aim - to reduce its "quantity-based" practices of leaning on banks to expand credit and rely more on interest rates for policy transmission so that markets play a more prominent role in funding the economy - is becoming increasingly difficult. "A moderately loose monetary policy will involve both interest rate and quantitative measures," said Xu Hongcai, deputy director of the economic policy commission at the state-backed China Association of Policy Science. Xu, who also predicts 40 bps of cuts, warns that the pace of easing needs to be balanced against exchange rate concerns. "Excessive currency devaluation could destabilise financial markets, affect expectations and cause panic," Xu said. Some analysts, including Hu and Xing, feel that the suspension of treasury bond purchases suggests the PBOC is uneasy about the disruptive effects of a fast weakening yuan. But not all economists worry so much about a softer currency. In theory, it could make exports more competitive and mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs, which incoming President Donald Trump threatened to hike to 60% on all imports of Chinese goods. "Sacrificing monetary policy flexibility to maintain exchange rate stability would be a case of putting the cart before the horse," said Zhang Ming, a senior economist at think tank Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, in a Jan. 2 article on his WeChat account. If rate cuts boost growth, the exchange rate may rise instead of depreciating, he said. ($1 = 7.3317 Chinese yuan) Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-central-bank-is-moving-faster-towards-its-policy-limits-2025-01-10/

2025-01-10 06:56

US dollar hits six-month high vs yen Euro falls to lowest since Nov. 22 vs dollar US dollar index on track for sixth weekly gain Sterling falls to lowest since Nov. 2023 vs dollar US rate futures price in just one rate cut in 2025 NEW YORK, Jan 10 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar rallied on Friday after data showed the world's largest economy created more jobs than expected last month, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will pause its rate-cutting cycle at its policy meeting later this month. The greenback also extended gains following a report that showed U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next year and beyond jumped in January. The dollar rose to its highest since July against the yen after the data, before turning lower on the day. It was last down 0.1% at 157.845 yen . The euro, on the other hand, dropped to its lowest since November 2022 versus the greenback. The single euro zone currency was last down 0.5% at $1.0244 , falling for a second straight week. A significant number of foreign exchange forecasters expect the euro to reach parity with the dollar in 2025, a Reuters poll showed this week. The greenback's rally kicked off after a Labor Department report showed that the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, much higher than economists' forecasts for an increase of 160,000. The November jobs number, however, was revised downward to 212,000. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, dipped to 4.1%, compared with expectations of a 4.2% reading, while average hourly earnings increased 0.3% last month after gaining 0.4% in November. In the 12 months through December, wages advanced 3.9% after rising 4.0% in November. "The strength of the December payrolls data clearly removes any need for the Fed to cut rates with urgency," wrote Jane Foley, head of FX strategy, at Rabobank in London. "For a while it has been Rabobank's central view that the Fed will cut rates just once this year. However, if (Donald) Trump wastes no time in initiating his policies, it is conceivable that window could close altogether." Trump, during his campaign, vowed to impose tariffs, cut taxes, and undertake mass deportation of undocumented immigrants, all of which are widely viewed as inflationary. A University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey indicating a rise in inflation expectations also supported the dollar. The report showed that one-year inflation expectations jumped to 3.3% in January, the highest level since May, from 2.8% in December. That raised the 12-month inflation expectations above the 2.3%-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. Following the U.S. data, the U.S. rate futures market has fully priced in a pause in the Fed's easing cycle at the January meeting, according to LSEG estimates. The market has also priced in just 27 basis points (bps) of easing in 2025 or just one rate cut, with the first rate move likely at the June meeting. In other currencies, sterling tumbled to its weakest level since November 2023 against the dollar, last changing hands at $1.2208, down 0.8% . It dropped as well on Thursday in tandem with a selloff in gilts and concerns about British government finances. In Japan, prospects of sustained wage gains and the boost to import costs from a weak yen have heightened attention within the central bank to rising inflationary pressures that may lead to an upgrade in its price forecast this month, sources said. The dollar will end the week up 0.4% versus the yen. The U.S. currency has risen in five of the last six weeks against the Japanese unit. The dollar index , meanwhile, advanced to its highest since November 2022, and was on track for a sixth consecutive weekly gain. That's its longest run since an 11-week streak in 2023. The index was last up 0.4% at 109.68. "The biggest risk to that U.S. dollar bullish view would be if participants seek to take profit, trim risk early next week ahead of Trump's inauguration," said Michael Brown, senior research strategist, at Pepperstone in London. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/dollar-gains-extend-ahead-us-jobs-reading-2025-01-10/

2025-01-10 06:42

Palm oil stocks drop for third consecutive month to 1.71 mln T Crude palm oil output falls 8.3% in December to 1.49 mln T Palm oil exports plunge 9.97% to 1.34 mln T on weak demand KUALA LUMPUR/MUMBAI, Jan 10 (Reuters) - Malaysia's palm oil stocks fell for a third consecutive month in December to hit their lowest since May 2023, as output dropped due to floods, data from the industry regulator showed on Friday. The drop in inventories in the world's second-largest palm oil producer after Indonesia could support benchmark futures , which have corrected sharply in recent weeks after rising to their highest in about 2-1/2 years in November. Malaysia's palm oil stocks at the end of December fell 6.91% from a month earlier to a 19-month low of 1.71 million metric tons, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) data showed. Crude palm oil production was down 8.3% to 1.49 million tons, the lowest since March 2024, while palm oil exports fell 9.97% to a six-month low of 1.34 million tons. A Reuters survey had forecast inventories at 1.76 million tons, output at 1.48 million tons and exports at 1.38 million tons. PALM/POLL The MPOB data for December is slightly bullish for the market, as inventories dropped more than forecast due to a rise in local consumption, said Anilkumar Bagani, research head of Mumbai-based vegetable oil broker Sunvin Group. Malaysia's palm oil consumption jumped 53% in December from a month earlier to 309,865 tons, the data showed. Palm oil has been trading at a premium to rival soybean and sunflower oils, and it needs to correct to attract demand from price-sensitive buyers, said a Mumbai-based trader with a global trade house. "Even in January, exports are likely to remain subdued," the trader said. Following is a breakdown of the Malaysian Palm Oil Board figures and Reuters estimates for December (volumes in tons)PALM/POLL: *indicates revised figures by the Malaysian Palm Oil Board Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/malaysia-end-december-palm-oil-stocks-fall-691-mpob-says-2025-01-10/