2026-01-02 09:00

Jan 2 (Reuters) - The new year starts with U.S. jobs data, a rebalancing of commodity indexes and an OPEC+ meeting. Markets are gearing up for more IPOs and much of the enthusiasm that fuelled market peaks in 2025 is seemingly intact. But there are plenty of risks on the horizon, with a U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling and new Federal Reserve chair announcement imminent. Sign up here. Here's all you need to know about the coming week in financial markets by Polina Devitt, Naomi Rovnick, Charlie Conchie and Alex Lawler in London, and Lewis Krauskopf in New York. 1/ TAILWINDS AND RISKS In 2025, almost every bet on global markets was a winner. And investors' year-ahead outlooks are broadly optimistic about 2026, despite caveats about AI bubbles and possible fresh turmoil ahead with the U.S. Supreme Court poised to rule on the legality of President Donald Trump's sweeping emergency tariffs and a new Fed chair announcement expected soon. Some say money managers may have fallen into the hot hand fallacy , opens new tab trap, where winning streaks make gamblers more optimistic instead of worried their luck will run out. Others have decided it is most rational to back hot-handed U.S. retail investors, who have bet on Wall Street dips and become a more dominant force as they keep doubling down. Investors' fear of missing out could extend December's positive trends, although markets driven by sentiment are vulnerable to small shocks. The potential for turbulence is rising. 2/ PERUSING PAYROLLS The new year brings the next instalment of key U.S. jobs data on January 9. Concerns over a softening labour market paved the way for the Fed to cut rates by a total of 175 basis points in 2024 and 2025. Investors expect more easing in 2026, though that will depend in part on the health of the labour market as inflation remains above its target. A Reuters poll forecasts that 55,000 jobs were created in December. That comes after 64,000 new jobs in November and the biggest drop in nearly five years in October following government-related spending cuts. Latest minutes showed Fed policymakers agreed to cut rates in December only after a deeply nuanced debate about economic risks. 3/ CRUDE CALL Major oil producers grouped in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, dubbed OPEC+, are likely to leave oil output levels for the first quarter of 2026 unchanged at a Sunday meeting, sources say. Such a decision would moderate a push to regain market share amid fears of a looming supply glut and after oil prices fell more than 15% over the course of 2025. But the gathering also takes place amid rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates over Yemen - any disagreement between the two OPEC+ powers could hamper consensus on oil output. The eight countries - Saudi Arabia, Russia, UAE, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Iraq, Algeria and Oman - raised oil output targets by around 2.9 million barrels per day from April to December, equal to almost 3% of world oil demand. 4/ MORE TIME TO SHINE Precious metals are basking in the glow of successive record highs for gold and silver given persistent geopolitical and economic headwinds. While the size and scale of buying may display hallmarks of a correction, the story isn't over yet. Gold, despite its biggest jump in 46 years, retains its safe-haven cachet as central banks keep buying and investors hedge against lingering worries from war in Ukraine to a stock market bubble. Silver and platinum just wrapped up their best years ever -- palladium seeing its strongest run in 15 years. The year kicks off with a U.S. probe into tariffs on critical minerals, with a decision due in January, market players say. Expect more volatility with commodity indexes rebalancing starting January 8. 5/ IPO TENTACLES Dealmakers are positioning for a stronger year of initial public offerings after signs of a rebound in late 2025. Overall deal values across Europe, the Middle East and Africa dipped to $27 billion last year from $32.6 billion in 2024, but a number of larger deals and the prospect of more to come have fuelled hopes of a revival in European IPOs. A new beast is rearing its head: Octopus Energy's tech arm Kraken took a step towards a listing in recent days. Its parent company announced it reached a deal to sell a stake in the division to a group of investors, led by U.S. firm D1 Capital Partners, as part of a demerger plan. The deal valued Kraken at $8.65 billion, and it may consider an IPO in the medium term with London and New York in contention as venues. Meanwhile China is already off with a bang: AI chipmaker Biren soared over 100% on its Hong Kong debut as the IPO wave builds. https://www.reuters.com/business/take-five/global-markets-themes-graphic-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 08:50

JAKARTA, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Nickel miner PT Vale Indonesia Tbk (INCO.JK) , opens new tab said on Friday it was suspending mining activities in Southeast Asia's largest economy due to delays in the approval of its annual production plan. All miners in resource-rich Indonesia are required to submit an annual production plan, known as RKAB, for official approval with the government setting output quotas for the industry. Expectations of a lower output quota in Indonesia, the world's top nickel producer, sent prices soaring towards the end of last year. Sign up here. Vale said it could not carry out mining operations without the RKAB approval. "The company believes that this delay will not disrupt overall operational sustainability and expects that the 2026 RKAB approval can be issued in the near future," it added in a stock exchange filing. Asked about the overall 2026 RKAB issuance for nickel, Deputy Mining Minister Yuliot Tanjung told reporters the approval was "currently being consolidated" and declined to give an indication of the quota. Mining Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said last week the government would cut mining output quotas to support prices. Yuliot said on Friday the quota would be adjusted to meet demand from domestic smelters. Indonesia's nickel smelter association FINI is forecasting that demand to reach around 340 million to 350 million metric tons in 2026, which the group said represents an annual increase of up to 50 million tons. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/vale-indonesia-halts-mining-activities-delayed-approval-2026-output-plan-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 07:54

EVs take record 95.9% share of Norway car market in 2025 In December, 97.6% of all new cars were fully electric Tesla is top-selling brand for fifth consecutive year Chinese cars increase market share Carmakers, buyers rushed to beat January EV tax hike STOCKHOLM, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Almost all new cars registered in Norway last year were fully electric, official data showed on Friday, headed by booming Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab sales as the Nordic country cements its global lead in phasing out petrol and diesel-powered vehicles. Oil-producing Norway's rapid switch to battery-powered vehicles contrasts with the rest of Europe, where weak demand for EVs prompted the European Union last month to reverse its planned 2035 ban on internal combustion engine cars. Sign up here. Driven by tax incentives, 95.9% of all new cars registered in Norway in 2025 were EVs, with that number at almost 98% in December. The annual figure was up from 88.9% in 2024, Norwegian Road Federation (OFV) data showed. A record 179,549 new cars were registered in Norway during the year, a 40% increase from 2024, the OFV said. EV TAXES SET TO RISE Tesla was Norway's top-selling car brand for a fifth consecutive year, with a 19.1% market share, followed by Volkswagen at 13.3% of registrations and Volvo Cars (VOLCARb.ST) , opens new tab at 7.8%. Led by the mass-market crossover Model Y, Tesla sold 27,621 cars in Norway in 2025, more than any other automaker has sold in the country in a single year, overcoming a consumer backlash plaguing the brand in much of Europe over CEO Elon Musk's support for far-right parties and his backing of U.S. President Donald Trump. Cars produced in China had a 13.7% market share in Norway in 2025, up from 10.4% the previous year, led by automaker BYD (002594.SZ) , opens new tab which more than doubled the number of cars it sold in the Nordic country. Norway, which began taxing EVs in 2023, announced in October that it would add up to $5,000 in value-added tax per vehicle from January 1, 2026, sparking a rush among buyers and car firms to beat the 2025 year-end deadline. "What we did very quickly was to redirect a number of cars that were not originally intended for Norway, to get them here faster," Ford Norway's (F.N) , opens new tab Managing Director Per Gunnar Berg told Reuters. CARROT AND STICK PROPELS NORWAY'S EV SHIFT While some EV incentives have been pulled back, the government has also consistently added charges to petrol and diesel cars to make them more expensive, said Christina Bu, head of the Norwegian EV association. "That is often misunderstood outside of Norway - they all think it's about tax exemptions and incentives, but it's very much also about the whip," Bu said. "ICE (internal combustion engine) cars are taxed out of business in a way." The few fossil-fuel cars registered in 2025 were mostly specialised vehicles such as wheelchair-accessible vehicles or those used by police and other first responders, alongside a few hybrid models and sports cars. EVs costing less than 300,000 Norwegian crowns ($29,831.75) remain exempt from VAT in 2026, in a potential boost for small cars, executives said. "I think the tax changes will accelerate the return of compact cars... which used to dominate both Norway and Europe," Ford's Berg said. Ulf Tore Hekneby, head of Harald A Moller which imports Volkswagen, Audi, Skoda and CUPRA vehicles, said more combustion engine models would launch as electric and that his company had managed to get more cars late last year by arranging with the factories to accelerate output and prioritise Norway in production allocation. "There will be a great deal of new launches from our brands for compact cars so we'll get a new lineup that we haven't had in many years," Hekneby said. ($1 = 10.0564 Norwegian crowns) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/norways-new-car-sales-were-96-electric-2025-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 07:45

Domestic India prices drop to 136,700 rupees from record highs Indian dealers' charge premiums of $15/oz China flips to a $3/oz premium from last week Jan 2 (Reuters) - Gold traded at a premium in top hubs India and China for the first time in about two months this week as a correction from all-time highs helped lift retail demand, which had been hit by an unprecedented rally in prices. Indian dealers charged a premium of up to $15 per ounce over official domestic prices this week – inclusive of 6% import and 3% sales levies – up from last week's discount of up to $61. Sign up here. Domestic gold prices traded at around 136,700 rupees per 10 grams on Friday after hitting a record high of 140,465 rupees last week. Retail buying improved slightly this week after prices corrected sharply from record-high levels, said a New Delhi-based jeweller. However, international benchmark spot gold kick-started the New Year on a strong note on Friday, resuming its rally after ending 2025 with gains of 64%, its largest since 1979. "Many buyers are holding off on purchases because prices are volatile and they're unsure which way the market is headed," said a Mumbai-based bullion dealer with a private bank. In top consumer China, the bullion flipped from trading at a discount to premiums of $3 an ounce above the global benchmark spot price this week on robust retail demand and a sharp correction in spot prices. "It seems that (Chinese) retail demand remains relatively robust, and especially so if you consider where prices are just now. Long and short, physical demand volume remains pretty robust...after a good correction in prices," said independent analyst Ross Norman. The recent price volatility discouraged customers amid what was already very thin volume trading as is seasonally the case during the end-year holiday season, said Peter Fung, head of dealing at Wing Fung Precious Metals. In Singapore , gold was sold at prices ranging from a discount of $0.50 to premiums of $1.20 an ounce. In Hong Kong, gold traded at par to a $1.70 premium, while in Japan, bullion sold at par with spot prices. ($1 = 90.1250 Indian rupees) https://www.reuters.com/world/china/asia-gold-india-china-flip-premiums-price-retreat-record-highs-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 07:04

OSLO, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Denmark's Orsted (ORSTED.CO) , opens new tab said on Friday it was challenging the U.S. government's suspension of the lease for its Revolution Wind joint venture and would seek a court injunction against the decision to halt its $5 billion offshore wind project. The Trump administration suspended leases on December 22 for five large offshore wind projects that are under construction off the U.S. East Coast over what it called national security concerns, sending shares of offshore wind companies plunging. Sign up here. The suspension was the latest blow for offshore wind developers that have faced repeated disruptions to their multi-billion-dollar projects under U.S. President Donald Trump, who has said he finds wind turbines ugly, costly and inefficient. Orsted said in a statement on Friday that Revolution Wind was about 87% complete and that at the time of the lease suspension order, the project was expected to begin generating power as soon as January 2026. "Revolution Wind has spent and committed billions of dollars in reliance upon, and has met the requests of, a thorough review process," Orsted said in the statement. Revolution Wind LLC, a 50-50 joint venture between Orsted and Global Infrastructure Partners’ Skyborn Renewables, filed its complaint with the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia. Orsted and Skyborn Renewables in September said they had already spent or committed about $5 billion for Revolution Wind. Orsted's share price plunged 13% on Monday following the U.S. government announcement. Squeezed by inflation, higher interest rates, supply chain delays and regulatory headwinds, Orsted last year raised 60 billion Danish crowns ($9.4 billion) in a heavily discounted share issue to shore up its finances. State officials, Democratic lawmakers and industry trade groups have slammed the government's move as unjustified. The U.S. Department of the Interior has said the decision was the result of complaints by the Pentagon that the movement of huge turbine blades for offshore wind projects and the highly reflective towers that hold them up cause radar interference that can make it hard to identify and locate security threats. Sunrise Wind LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Orsted that also received a lease suspension order, continues to evaluate all options to resolve the matter, the company said. (This story has been corrected to say December 22, not Monday, in paragraph 2) https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/orsted-challenges-us-halt-its-5-billion-offshore-wind-project-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 06:41

US data next week likely to dictate near-term currency movement Yen near 10-month low as intervention risk continues Euro, pound edge lower vs. dollar NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The U.S. dollar began 2026 stronger on Friday, snapping last year’s slump against most currencies as investors look ahead to a critical week of economic data that could steer Federal Reserve policy and global markets. The rebound follows the sharpest annual decline since 2017 of more than 9%, driven by narrowing interest-rate gaps with other economies and persistent worries over U.S. fiscal health, a global trade war and Fed independence — risks that remain in play this year. Sign up here. Next week’s data deluge, capped by next Friday’s payrolls report, is expected to offer clues on whether the Fed will cut rates further, with markets already pricing in two reductions versus one projected by a divided central bank. "It's going to be a time to actually do a lot of assessment, we won't have the Fed meeting until the end of the month, but there's no consensus," said Juan Perez, director of trading at Monex USA in Washington. "This past U.S. government shutdown was unprecedented and inconceivably long, so it really affected the way that data has been taken, has been interpreted, and has been able to really be gauged or taken as fully accurate." Markets in Japan and China were closed on Friday, leading to thin trading volume. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.24% to 98.48, with the euro down 0.25% at $1.1716. Euro zone manufacturing activity fell in December to its weakest in nine months, a survey showed. The currency surged more than 13% last year, its biggest annual rise since 2017. Sterling weakened 0.18% to $1.3445 following a 7.7% increase in 2025, also its biggest yearly jump since 2017. Investors will also be eyeing whom U.S. President Donald Trump chooses to be the next Fed chair as the term of current head Jerome Powell ends in May. Trump said that he would make his Fed chair pick this month, and many market participants expect Trump's pick to be a proponent of more rate cuts, as the president has repeatedly criticized Powell and the Fed for not reducing borrowing costs at a faster pace and a larger magnitude. Traders are fully pricing in two cuts this year compared to one projected by a currently divided Fed board. "We expect that concerns around central bank independence will extend into 2026, and see the upcoming change in Fed leadership as one of several reasons why risks around our Fed funds rate forecast skew dovish," Goldman strategists said in a note to clients. YEN REMAINS THE EXCEPTION The Japanese yen weakened 0.16% against the greenback to 156.91 per dollar after rising less than 1% against the greenback in 2025. It remained close to a 10-month low of 157.89 touched in November that drew policymaker attention and raised expectations for a possible intervention by the Bank of Japan. The BOJ hiked interest rates twice last year but that did little to support the yen performance as investors appeared to be looking for a more aggressive pace. Markets are not pricing in more than a 50% chance of another BOJ rate hike until July, according to LSEG data. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.64% to $89,741.61. https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/dollar-makes-soft-start-2026-after-sharpest-drop-8-years-2026-01-02/