2026-01-02 06:17

Traders expect two Fed rate-cuts this year Gold up after recording a 64% annual gain in 2025 Silver, platinum achieve biggest yearly gains on record Jan 2 (Reuters) - Precious metals began the first trading session of the New Year by building on the major gains of 2025 as geopolitical tension and expectations of U.S. rate cuts keep demand for gold high. Spot gold was steady at $4,313.29 per ounce, as of 01:46 p.m. ET, (1846 GMT), after rising as high as $4,402.06 earlier in the session. Bullion hit a record high of $4,549.71/oz on December 26, and logged a 64% rise in 2025. Sign up here. U.S. gold futures for February delivery settled 0.3% lower at $4,329.6/oz. "We are continuing to see the market talk about cuts in March and maybe another cut later this year... that combination with significant talk about markets potentially being at risk with tariffs and continued U.S. debt are all kind of moving gold, silver, platinum, and palladium higher," said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. GOLD HAS GREATER INVESTMENT APPEAL WHEN RATES FALL Markets anticipate at least two quarter-point Fed rate cuts, making non-yielding gold more attractive to investors. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, was also supported by news of unrest in Iran and the absence so far of a Russia-Ukraine peace deal, as well as issues surrounding Gaza. "Technically, February gold futures bulls' next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract/record high of $4,584," Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals said in a note. Elsewhere, physical gold traded at a premium in India and China for the first time in about two months. Spot silver advanced 0.7% to $71.77/oz, after hitting an all-time high of $83.62 on Monday. Platinum jumped 3.5% to $2,125.80/oz, after rising to an all-time high of $2,478.50, also on Monday. Both metals outperformed gold in 2025, with silver rising over 147%, driven by its designation as a critical U.S. mineral, supply shortages, and low inventories when industrial and investment demand was strong. Platinum rose 127% last year. Palladium gained nearly 2% to $1,636.43 per ounce, after closing the previous year up 76%, its biggest gain in 15 years. Following the end-of-year rally, all precious metals are set to post weekly losses. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/precious-metals-kick-off-new-year-higher-after-robust-2025-rally-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 06:07

Arab Light Feb OSP may fall 10-30 cents/bbl, survey shows Arab Medium and Heavy OSPs may hold steady or fall 10 cents/bbl Spot premiums have fallen since October on rising production SINGAPORE, Dec 29 (Reuters) - (This Dec. 29 story has been corrected to fix January Arab Medium and Arab Heavy prices to negative, not positive, in the table. It also corrects estimated February prices) Saudi Arabia, the world's biggest oil exporter, is expected to lower the February price for its flagship Arab Light crude for Asian buyers for a third month, mirroring declines in the spot market due to ample supplies, sources said. Sign up here. The February official selling price for flagship Arab Light crude will likely fall 10-30 cents a barrel to a premium of 30 cents to 50 cents to the average of Oman/Dubai quotes, six Asia-based refining sources said in a Reuters survey. That would mark a third monthly decline, extending losses from a premium of 60 cents a barrel for January, the lowest in five years. The February OSP for Arab Extra Light may decline by 10-20 cents, while that for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy may stay the same or dip by 10 cents, the survey showed. In the spot market, cash Dubai's premium to swaps rose last week, after having fallen since October amid abundant supplies. It has averaged 61 cents per barrel so far this month, down from 88 cents in November, and is half of October's average. The pressure came from output hikes from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners - a group known as OPEC+ - as well as production growth in the U.S. and other producers. Eight OPEC+ members have paused oil output hikes for the first quarter of 2026 after releasing some 2.9 million barrels per day into the market since April 2025. Global oil supply will exceed demand by 3.84 million bpd in 2026, according to figures from the International Energy Agency's latest monthly oil market report. Meanwhile, the latest disruptions in Venezuelan oil exports have had a minor impact on the Middle East market. Oil from the Latin American producer accounted for about 1% of global supply, while the majority of its exports went to smaller-sized independent refiners in China. Saudi crude OSPs are usually released around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting about 9 million bpd of crude bound for Asia. State oil giant Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices. Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom's monthly OSPs. Below are expected Saudi prices for February (in $/bbl against the Oman/Dubai average): Source: Reuters, trade https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/saudi-arabia-may-lower-february-crude-prices-asia-third-month-2025-12-29/

2026-01-02 06:06

European shares hit record highs, FTSE 100 reaches 10,000 points Focus on Fed policy as Powell's tenure nears end, delayed data crucial Gold, silver gains pause after record-breaking year, dollar strengthens NEW YORK, Jan 2 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks oscillated to a mixed close, U.S. Treasury yields climbed and the dollar firmed on Friday, the first trading day of 2026. While all three major U.S. stock indexes seesawed for much of the session, the S&P 500 and Dow posted gains, snapping their four-day losing streaks. The tech-heavy Nasdaq posted a nominal loss, weighed down by tech and tech-related megastocks (.NYFANG) , opens new tab. Sign up here. All three indexes registered losses for the holiday-shortened week. "Today is kind of a holiday trading day, lighter volumes, people not engaged normally," said Jed Ellerbroek, portfolio manager at Argent Capital in St. Louis. "Value is outperforming growth and AI infrastructure is up, and a lot of the stocks doing well in sectors like utilities and industrials in particular, energy probably too, those are AI beneficiary stocks." Stocks made strong gains in 2025 as markets weathered tariff wars, the longest government shutdown in U.S. history, geopolitical strife as well as threats to central bank independence. THE FED'S YEAR AHEAD Markets will focus on monetary policy in the year ahead, as Jerome Powell approaches the end of his tenure as Federal Reserve chair and economic data releases return to their more regular and current release schedule in the aftermath of the federal government shutdown. A spate of delayed indicators due in the coming days could be key in determining the path forward for the central bank. "One of the most important things will be maintaining Fed independence," said Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt in Atlanta. "Even though the newest members were appointed by (U.S. President Donald) Trump and they're more dovish, they want to at least give the appearance that the Fed is independent because once you lose that, you're kind of like in trouble." But Ellerbroek disagrees, saying "President Trump has made it clear that he's going to appoint someone as chair who is willing to take direction from him, and he wants rates significantly lower than they are today," adding that "the short-term excitement that lower rates offers is tangible." The extent to which markets begin to reap the benefits of massive investments in nascent artificial-intelligence technology will also likely receive scrutiny in the year ahead. The new year also promises to deliver some geopolitically driven volatility, with U.S. congressional midterm elections this autumn and ongoing negotiations toward ending Russia's war in Ukraine, along with ongoing tensions in the Middle East. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI) , opens new tab rose 319.10 points, or 0.66%, to 48,382.39, the S&P 500 (.SPX) , opens new tab rose 12.97 points, or 0.19%, to 6,858.47 and the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) , opens new tab fell 6.36 points, or 0.03%, to 23,235.63. European shares began the new year at record highs, with a boost from technology and defense stocks. Investors eyed the STOXX 600 as it approached the 600 milestone. London's blue-chip FTSE 100 (.FTSE) , opens new tab index hit the symbolic 10,000-point mark for the first time. MSCI's gauge of stocks across the globe (.MIWD00000PUS) , opens new tab rose 4.41 points, or 0.43%, to 1,019.15. The pan-European STOXX 600 (.STOXX) , opens new tab index rose 0.67%, while Europe's broad FTSEurofirst 300 index (.FTEU3) , opens new tab rose 16.23 points, or 0.69%. Emerging market stocks (.MSCIEF) , opens new tab rose 24.02 points, or 1.71%, to 1,429.34. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (.MIAPJ0000PUS) , opens new tab closed higher by 1.75%, to 735.19, while Japan's Nikkei (.N225) , opens new tab fell 187.44 points, or 0.37%, to 50,339.48. GOLD, SILVER PRESS 'PAUSE' Gold and silver pared earlier gains, and were last up only modestly following a spate of profit-taking at the end of a year in which the precious metals notched remarkable gains. Gold's 2025 rise was its biggest in 46 years, while silver and platinum made their largest gains on record, driven by a cocktail of factors including the Fed's rate cuts, geopolitical flashpoints, robust central-bank buying and ETF inflows. Spot gold rose 0.36% to $4,329.57 an ounce, while spot silver rose 1.6% to $72.39 per ounce. The dollar moved higher in the aftermath of the greenback's largest yearly drop in eight years. The dollar index , which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, rose 0.19% to 98.43, with the euro down 0.21% at $1.172. Against the Japanese yen , the dollar strengthened 0.11% to 156.84. In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin gained 1.69% to $89,789.87. Ethereum rose 4.5% to $3,121.09. U.S. Treasury yields moved higher as the markets looked ahead to next week's spate of employment data for indications of economic health headed into the new year. The yield on benchmark U.S. 10-year notes rose 3.8 basis points to 4.191%, from 4.153% late on Wednesday. The 30-year bond yield rose 3.8 basis points to 4.8682% from 4.83% late on Wednesday. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, rose 0.6 basis points to 3.475%, from 3.469% late on Wednesday. Oil prices eased after logging their biggest annual loss since 2020 as investors weighed oversupply worries against geopolitical risks. U.S. crude dipped 0.17% to settle at $57.32 per barrel, while Brent settled at $60.75 per barrel, down 0.16% on the day. https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-markets-global-markets-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 05:56

MUMBAI, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee ended lower on Friday, breaking below the critical 90-per-dollar mark and logging a second straight weekly decline amid persistent year-end dollar demand. The rupee opened slightly firmer at 89.93 and held above 90 early on, supported by dollar sales from state-run banks, traders said. Sign up here. It later slid through the 90 level and closed 0.3% weaker at 90.1950, its lowest close in two weeks. Heavy dollar demand from oil importers weighed on the currency through the session, while a U.S. holiday on Thursday thinned liquidity and amplified moves, traders said. For the year-crossing week, the rupee fell 0.4% in thin trade, after dropping 0.65% last week. "Markets will watch closely for signals on how tolerant the RBI remains of the currency moves, scale and timing of its interventions, and the use of instruments such as FX swaps and liquidity operations," said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India. He further said the currency's path will largely be determined by external forces and the RBI's response. Meanwhile, the perception that the Reserve Bank of India wants to prevent a break of 90, a level that came into focus in the final sessions of the year following sharp gains from record low levels, further strengthened. Market participants have continued to test the level, indicating that underlying demand for dollars remains robust and risk of a wider move past 90 remains on the table, despite RBI presence. Most Asian currencies were on the back foot on the day, offering little support to the rupee. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-mark-time-with-traders-seeking-visibility-new-year-flows-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 05:41

ISTANBUL, Jan 2 (Reuters) - Turkey will send a drilling vessel to Somalia in February to carry out the country's first deepwater exploration project abroad, Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said on Wednesday. He said the operation with the Cagri Bey vessel will focus on offshore areas in Somali waters, but did not provide details on targeted reserves or investment size. Sign up here. In 2024, Turkey signed an energy exploration deal with Somalia. It has been seeking to diversify its energy sources and reduce reliance on imports, investing in exploration at home and overseas. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/turkey-plans-first-overseas-deepwater-drilling-somalia-next-month-2026-01-02/

2026-01-02 05:08

MUMBAI, Jan 2 (Reuters) - The India rupee found support near the 90-per-dollar mark on Friday, with traders citing dollar sales by state-run banks, likely on behalf of the central bank. The rupee was trading near 89.98, repeatedly finding support around the 90 level in the past hour. Sign up here. “The RBI's presence is more evident today, though it was probably there on recent days too," a trader at mid-sized private sector bank said. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/india-central-bank-likely-active-near-90-dollar-via-state-run-banks-traders-say-2026-01-02/