2025-01-03 05:54
Bullion up 0.8% this week so far U.S. central bank projects two rate reductions in 2025 Dollar set for strongest weekly performance since mid November Jan 3 (Reuters) - Gold prices retreated from a three-week high on Friday, pressured by a robust dollar, while markets braced for potential economic and trade shifts under U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. Spot gold eased 0.6% to $2,641.52 an ounce at 01:41 p.m. ET (1841 GMT), after hitting its highest level since Dec. 13 earlier in the session. Bullion is up about 0.8% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures settled 0.5% lower at $2,654.70. The new president's agenda that supports higher tariffs has boosted the dollar and created significant underlying pressure on metal markets, said Nitesh Shah, commodity strategist at WisdomTree. The dollar index (.DXY) , opens new tab was set for its strongest weekly performance since mid-November, making gold pricier for overseas buyers. "For most of the metals, the slowing of global trade has typically been coupled with a slowing economy and therefore slowing demand for metals," Shah said, referring to the potential impact of Trump's proposed trade tariffs. A headwind from a stronger dollar is likely to persist for gold, but it looks like debt will continue rising in the U.S. and other countries, and geopolitical issues aren't going to end soon, so it should stay supported, he added. Trump is set to take the oath of office on Jan. 20. His proposed tariffs and protectionist policies are expected to fuel inflation. This could slow the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, limiting gold's upside. After three rate cuts in 2024, the Fed projects only two reductions in 2025 due to persistent inflation. Gold, which thrives in low-rate environments, is currently benefiting from seasonal demand. "January has been consistently seeing the best price gains over the last 20 years as investors and asset allocators open fresh new long positions, coupled, of course, with good jewellery offtake for the festive season," independent analyst Ross Norman said. Spot silver rose 0.2% to $29.63 per ounce, platinum added 1.9% to $940.80, and palladium gained 1.7% to $926.51. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/gold-set-weekly-rise-market-awaits-trumps-policy-moves-2025-01-03/
2025-01-03 05:33
A look at the day ahead in European and global markets from Ankur Banerjee While stock markets shrugged off the dim start to 2025, the higher-for-longer U.S. rates theme has left the dollar's dominance intact, leaving the euro and sterling near multi-month lows. Beyond the worries of the U.S. central bank's measured rate cut path for 2025, investors are also grappling with how President-elect Donald Trump's policies will play out regarding inflation, growth and tariffs. European stock markets are set for a mellow open after Asian equities ended the week on a high, buoyed by South Korean shares (.KS11) , opens new tab. Japan remains closed for a holiday. Focus will be on whether the pan-European STOXX 600 index (.STOXX) , opens new tab can build on its steady start to 2025 after clocking a 6% rise last year. European markets and the euro have been hampered in the past few months by uncertainty around diverging interest rate paths for Europe and the United States as well as the political quagmire in France and Germany. The threat of tariffs from the incoming Trump administration has also weighed on sentiment. That has left the euro wallowing at levels not seen since November 2022 after the single currency fell over 6% last year. Traders anticipate deep rate cuts from the European Central Bank in 2025, with markets pricing in at least four 25 basis point cuts, while not being certain of even two such moves from the Federal Reserve. The pound though has fared a lot better than other G10 currencies against the greenback's rise, declining just 1.7% against the dollar in 2024. It touched a nine-month low to kick off the New Year and remained rooted near those levels on Friday. All hail King Dollar? In company news, Tesla (TSLA.O) , opens new tab reported its first fall in annual deliveries as lucrative year-end incentives failed to lure customers wary of high borrowing costs. Meanwhile, U.S. President Joe Biden, with less than three weeks left in his tenure, has decided to block Nippon Steel's (5401.T) , opens new tab proposed purchase of U.S. Steel (X.N) , opens new tab, the Washington Post reported. Key developments that could influence markets on Friday: Economic events: German unemployment data for Dec; UK mortgage lending data for November Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/global-markets-view-europe-2025-01-03/
2025-01-03 04:54
NEW DELHI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Thick smog engulfed the Indian capital on Friday, prompting warnings of possible flight disruptions from airport and airline officials, as worsening air quality cut visibility to zero in some areas. Delhi, which has been battling smog and poor air quality since the beginning of winter, ranked third among the world's most polluted capitals in Friday's live rankings by Swiss group IQAir. No diversion or cancellation has been reported yet, an airport spokesperson said, although authorities warned in a post on X that aircraft lacking equipment to enable landings in low visibility could face difficulties. On social media, India's largest airline IndiGo and low-cost carrier Spicejet also cautioned against weather delays. Delays averaged eight minutes for 20 flights by 10:14 a.m., aviation website FlightRadar24 said. Some train services in the capital were also delayed, media said. New Delhi's air quality was rated "very poor" on Friday, with an index score of 351, the country's top pollution control body said, well beyond the levels from zero to 50 that it considers "good". Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/dense-smog-shrouds-indian-capital-threatening-disrupt-flights-2025-01-03/
2025-01-03 04:49
Singapore gets large jet fuel inflows from India, S.Korea in Dec, data shows Closed arbitrage to northwest Europe a key contributor Spot prices face pressure from ample supplies, some from China SINGAPORE, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Singapore's jet fuel imports probably hit multi-year highs in December last year, with India being the top supplier as the arbitrage to Europe stayed shut, trade sources and shiptracking data show. Jet fuel imports into the tiny city state are closely followed by markets, as it is a major trading and storage hub for refined fuel in Asia. The strong supply to Singapore and expectations of higher exports from China after its refiners received last week their first batch of the 2025 export quota, could weigh on Asia's spot jet fuel prices, added the sources, who all sought anonymity. Singapore's jet fuel imports were up to 2.55 million barrels in December, gaining from around 2 million barrels the previous month, estimates from LSEG, Kpler and trade sources showed, with most of the supply coming from India and South Korea. India diverted its jet fuel and kerosene exports from Europe to the rest of Asia as the east-west arbitrage remained closed, FGE analyst Liu Xuanting said in a note. The rise in supply has flipped the regrade to negative territory since mid-December, she added. The regrade, a spread between prices of jet fuel and 10-ppm gasoil , averaged at discounts of 80 cents a barrel the past two weeks versus November's average premium of 80 cents. Indian refiners typically sell refined products via spot tenders to traders who either send these volumes to Asia or northwest Europe, depending on arbitrage opportunities. India's exports to Asia hit multi-year highs in November as it did not export any to northwest Europe. Its December exports to northwest Europe were at around 1 million barrels, little changed from October's two-year lows, LSEG and Kpler shiptracking data showed. Some northeast Asia refiners also switched to selling jet fuel instead of diesel in the past two months, lured by better margins, one northeast Asia-based source said. The East-West price spreads still indicate the East as a preferred destination for January-loading cargoes, two analysts said. Some India-origin barrels will continue to arrive on Asian shores this month, as buying activity from northwest Europe will need some time to pick up and Asian prices have to weaken further for the arbitrage window to reopen, one of the Singapore-based trade sources said. About 600,000 barrels of India's jet fuel will be heading to southeast Asia and Australia in January, one shipbroking source said. However, some traders expect jet fuel flows from the Middle East and India to northwest Europe to emerge soon, as inventories at the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) refining and storage hub have dropped near eight-month lows. China-origin barrels will keep Asian markets fully supplied in these two months and swing suppliers may end up finding demand outlets west again, a third trade source said. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/singapores-dec-jet-fuel-imports-hit-multi-year-high-india-s-korea-supply-2025-01-03/
2025-01-03 04:33
Colder weather in Europe and US expected to boost oil demand Chinese economic frailties heighten hopes of further stimulus U.S. crude stockpiles fell last week HOUSTON, Jan 3 (Reuters) - Oil prices edged higher on Friday and were on track for weekly gains as cold weather in Europe and the U.S. as well as additional economic stimulus flagged by China helped push prices in the previous session to their highest in more than two months. Brent crude futures were up 69 cents, or 0.9%, at $76.62 a barrel by 12:49 p.m. ET (1749 GMT) after settling on Thursday at the highest level since Oct. 25. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude gained $1.11, or 1.5%, to $74.24. Brent was on track for a 3.3% weekly gain, while WTI was set for a 5% increase. Signs of Chinese economic fragility heightened expectations of policy measures to boost growth in the world’s top oil importer. "China just is unceasing at this point in terms of their announcements about trying to stoke economic activity, and the market's taking note of that," said John Kilduff, partner at Again Capital in New York. Worries about Chinese demand were a factor in bearish demand assumptions last year, he added. China announced a couple of new measures to boost growth this week with a surprise move to raise wages for government workers and the announcement of a sharp increase in funding from ultra-long treasury bonds. The additional funding is to be used to spur business investment and consumer-boosting initiatives. Oil is likely to have gained some price support from expected increased demand for heating oil after forecasts for colder weather in some regions. "Oil demand is likely benefiting from cold temperatures across Europe and the U.S.," said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Also supporting prices, U.S. crude stockpiles dropped by 1.2 million barrels to 415.6 million barrels last week, EIA data showed. Meanwhile U.S. gasoline and distillate inventories jumped as refineries ramped up output, though fuel demand hit a two-year low. Holding back prices however, the dollar was on track for its best week in about two months, even as it dipped on Friday, on expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to outperform its peers globally this year and that U.S. interest rates will stay relatively higher. Higher rates increase borrowing costs, which can cut economic growth and demand for oil. Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-rises-two-month-highs-optimism-over-policy-support-growth-2025-01-03/
2025-01-03 02:53
MUMBAI, Jan 3 (Reuters) - The Indian rupee may slip to a lifetime low at open on Friday after the dollar index climbed to the highest in more than two years, building on its rally in the last quarter. The 1-month non-deliverable forward indicated that the rupee will open at 85.80-85.82 to the U.S. dollar, down from 85.7525 in the previous session and possibly past the all-time low of 85.8075 hit last Friday. The dollar index rose 0.7% on Thursday, hitting 109.54, helped by the U.S. jobless claims data. The index carried on the momentum of December, when it rallied 7.7%, thanks to Donald Trump's election victory and the Federal Reserve slashing its forecasts of how many times it will cut interest rates this year. "The dollar in the New Year is basically carrying from where it left in 2024. It looks like this dollar rally will not relent till at least the Trump inauguration," a currency trader at a bank said. "I am a bit surprised that we did not see a bigger pop (on dollar/rupee)" considering the dollar's up move, he said. The rupee's relatively mild decline could be because the 85.80 level has been defended quite forcefully by India's central bank, traders said. On two occasions in the last week, the Reserve Bank of India sold dollars heavily near 85.80 to help out the rupee. The local currency had a difficult time through a large part of December, requiring the central bank to intervene regularly to manage the pace of the decline. Apart from the dollar's strength, India's wider trade deficit and slowing portfolio flows have dented demand for the rupee. KEY INDICATORS: ** One-month non-deliverable rupee forward at 86.08; onshore one-month forward premium at 24.5 paise ** Dollar index down at 109.16 ** Brent crude futures up 0.3% at $76.1 per barrel ** Ten-year U.S. note yield at 4.56% ** As per NSDL data, foreign investors sold a net $69.7 mln worth of Indian shares on Jan. 1 ** NSDL data shows foreign investors sold a net $9.7 mln worth of Indian bonds on Jan. 1 Sign up here. https://www.reuters.com/world/india/rupee-may-dip-all-time-low-fed-outlook-spurred-dollar-rally-2025-01-03/
